Alright folks, this is it. This is episode five of season two of Unfiltered, and we are down the stretch. One game left. The 11 remaining regular season games in both leagues will determine every team's path to the playoffs. Or the upcoming draft. So what better from a cheatsheet so you know what you should be looking at later tonight.
First things first, as always, let's start with the DSFL, and yesterday's action.
DSFL Week 13 results:
TIJ @ KC 23-30
POR @ BBB 36-14
NOR @ MIN 13-30
DAL @ LON 31-34
At Kansas city, both teams wanted the win. Tijuana needed to stay close to Dallas for the division title and HFA in the conference game against the Birddogs. Kansas City wanted the win to stay close to the Grey Ducks and punch their ticket to the playoffs. KC jumped to a 6-0 lead after 15 minutes, as K Izuku Campbell nailed one from 28 and one from 23. The Coyotes never lost the lead and, despite Tijuana tying the game at 23 apiece with 9:30 left in the game, got the win, after Gimmy Jaroppolo Jr. connected with malcador The Hero for 16 yards with 7:02 left in the game. There was a lot of time for Tijuana to drive and tie the game, but a turnover on downs with 2:40 left ended their comeback hopes. KC improve to 8-4-1, Tijuana drops to 8-5.
There is really not much to say about the POR @ BBB game, as it only had implications for the 1OA, and BBB lost, so task failed successfully I guess. At this point I will say that I have no clue regarding draft pick ownership, and I am only now opening the spreadsheet. Alright, I just checked, every DSFL team have their first rounders. So yeah, BBB are the proud owners of the 1OA for the upcoming DSFL draft. Let's hope they can make something out of it. Portland improves to 6-7, BBB drop to 2-11.
In Minnesota, the Grey Ducks were looking for one thing. Get the win that will keep them at the sole possession of the first place in NFC. Despite only scoring a fieldgoal in the first, the foot was stuck on the pedal for the remainder of the game. 17-3 lead after 30, 24-10 after 45, 30-13 after 60. The Ducks improve to 9-4, maintaining their 0.5 game lead over the Coyotes.
In the last game of the week, we saw another crazy game involving the Birddogs. This time, their dance partner was the Royals. Already eliminated after the KC win, it was only a matter of pride for the Royals, over their season 21 expansion "sister" team. On the other hand, that same KC win over Tijuana meant that Dallas could get closer to the division win with a win. It was pride against must. And it was nuts. London jumped to a 21-0 lead after one quarter. The game was looking like a wrap. Dallas went on a 24-0 run to respond, taking a 3 point lead, with 9:34 left in the third. Norfolk game all over again for the Birddogs. Game tied at 24, after a Rainbow Dash bomb from 48 yards, only for Dallas to score 99 seconds later, taking a 7 point lead heading into the 4th. Parmelee was on his usual bullshit though. Drove his team to the DAL 28 for a field goal. The defence did what they had to do, and Parm was on the ball, down 4 with 6:02 on the clock. The man just couldn't miss. One incompletion during that drive, and it was a drop. 8-9, 76 yards, 4:29. That's all it took for Dustin to put London up. Kick is good, and Dallas has 93 second to score. The London defence was suffocating once again, forcing a turnover on downs at midfield. Dallas drop to 8-5, London improve at 7-6.
The next games are scheduled for Monday, before the ISFL wildcard games. Let's have a look at them, and how they may affect the playoff picture and the draft order.
Current playoff picture:
NFC: KC @ MIN
SFC: TIJ @ DAL (Dallas has the better PF, with 412, to Tijuana's 305)
Current draft order:
1. BBB
2. NOR
3. POR
4. LON
Monday's schedule, in airing order
NOR @ TIJ
DAL @ BBB
LON @ POR
KC @ MIN
So let's start with the first two games of the day. I am grouping them together, as the only teams that have something to win or lose are Dallas and Tijuana. Norfolk and Bondi Beach are locked in their draft positions. Dallas and Tijuana are tied at 8-5, atop the SFC, have split their season series, and they both have a 4-1 division record. Dallas holds the tie due to being the better team in the sim's next tie-breaking criterion, Poitns For. For reference, the tiebreakers are H2H > Division record > Conf record > PF > Coinflip. As Division equals conference in our league, we go straight to Points For. Which is offence. And Dallas have scored 107 more points than Tijuana. Why is that important? If Dallas and Tijuana end up having the same outcome in their games, if Tijuana score 108 points more than Dallas do, the Lucha win the division. If Tijuana score 107 points more than Dallas do, we are going on a coinflip. Fun way to win your division, huh? And needless to say, if either team wins and the other loses, the winner gets the HFA in the grudge match, for all the marbles. The LON @ POR game only has draft implications. The loser gets 3OA, the winner gets 4OA. London is 7-6, while Portland is 6-7. London won the first meeting between the two teams. London get to +2 with a win. If Portland win, they even the season series, but have a better conference record, as the two teams hold a 2-3 conf record currently, hence dropping down a spot. The KC @ MIN is simple. Winner gets HFA for the trilogy for all the marbles.
Now let's get to the big league. Wednesday was action packed, with the image getting clearer, and two tickets left to be decided later tonight.
ISFL Week 15 results:
PHI @ BER 20-26
CHI @ YKW 24-27
COL @ SAR 30-13
BAL @ AUS 14-26
OCO @ AZ 21-24
HON @ NY 24-17
SJS @ NOLA 25-40
In the first game of the week, it was business as usual for Berlin, over already eliminated Philly. Berlin was comfortably in the lead for the majority of the game, and notched their 12th win of the season, in the hunt for the bye to the conference championship game and homefield advantage through all playoffs. Philly dropped to 5-10. Over in Yellowknife, in a close game, the Wraiths did their job against the Chicago Butchers, in a game with five lead changes, two of them within 67 seconds, late in the fourth quarter. The teams headed to the locker rooms after 30 minutes with YKW having a 7 point lead, that was squandered 7 minutes into the second half. Despite that, the Wraiths had a 3 point lead after three quarters. With 99 seconds left, O'Donnell found Gelbman in the endzone for six. Sidekick kick good, Butchers up by 4. Jack was on his MVP shit though. He only needed 67 seconds to drive his team downfield and find Zee Rechs in the endzone. Kokot made the kick, and it was all over. Really a shame YKW are not playing in the ASFC.
One of the key games of the week happened in Sarasota. Both teams wanted to win, chasing after the bye and HFA through Ultimus. Sarasota would jump up to #1 in the NSFC, holding their fate in their hands on Week 16. Colorado would still need a Berlin loss next week. Colorado proved to be too much for the Sailfish. Despite a close first half that saw the Yeti only have a 7-6 lead, Colorado turned up the jets in the second half. 20-6 was the score after 3, 30-6 with 1:55 left in the game. Sarasota drop to 10-5, and will travel either to Colorado or Berlin in the wildcard game, as the #3 seed from NSFC. Colorado improve to 12-3, catching Berlin to the top of the division. In Austin, Baltimore did what they had to do to get the 1OA. They lost. That's it about that game. Task failed successfully for Baltimore, Austin is going to pick 3rd at best. Baltimore drop to 3-12, Austin improve to 4-10-1. In probably the most important game of the week, a game both teams wanted to win. OCO to lock playoffs, AZ to get closer to a division win. It was a gruesome battle, with the Outlaws up 17-14 entering the fourth. It felt it would end like this until craziness decided to visit the stadium. With 1:23 left, Goat Tank punched it in from 9 yards out, putting OCO up. Cortez would only have 83 seconds to do his magic. He only needed a play. 82 yards to Darren Pama, AZ up 24-21, which ended up being the final score, and eyes set to NY for Arizona, who improved to 10-5, and NOLA for OCO, that dropped to 8-7, as their playoff futures would be decided there. In New York, we witnessed the upset of the week. A win Honolulu may regret, as it may cost them the 1OA pick in the draft. They improved to 3-12, same record as Baltimore, tied for worst in the league, but a 1-10 division record for Baltimore gives the Hawks the 1OA, forcing HON to settle for 2OA. However, there was a team that benefited from that HON win. Arizona. As they secured the #1 seed in the ASFC field, along with a bye to the championship game. NY drop to 9-6, and now have to hope for a SJS win so they don't end up in weird situations in week 16.
And it was time. As the previous games played out, this game would determine the fate of THREE teams. NOLA picked up where they left off against Orange County, leading by 27 midway though the third. An easy win for NOLA, an elimination for San Jose, and now Orange County was the team on the outside looking in, as NOLA own the h2h, with both teams tied at 8-7. San Jose drop to 6-8-1.
The next games are scheduled for tonight, at 8pm EST
Current playoff Picture
ASFC: NOLA @ NY, AZ have a bye
NSFC: SAR @ COL, BER have a bye (BER owns the tie over COL due to better div record, 9-2 to COL being 9-3)
Current draft order:
1. BAL
2. HON
3. AUS
4. CHI (via PHI)
5. CHI
6. SJS
7. OCO
8. YKW
Notes: BAL over HON due to divisional record (BAL 1-10, HON 3-8). PHI over CHI due to PD (PHI -51, CHI -10)
Tonight's schedule, in airing order
AUS @ HON
NY @ OCO
AZ @ SJS
COL @ NOLA
CHI @ SAR
YKW @ PHI
BER @ BAL
Ok people, buckle up. First, let's remember the tiebreakers. For two teams, it is H2H > Division record > Best Offence > Coinflip. For three teams, The criteria stay the same, except for H2H being tossed out of the window, so we are left with Division record > Best Offence > Coinflip. For draft picks, it's H2H > Division record > Point Differential (Offence - Defence) > Coinflip. First of all, let's see what games have zero implication. Well, almost all of them mean something. Either it's playoffs or draft order. The only game no team has something to gain from is the SJS @ AZ game. AZ are locked at #1, SJS can't go higher or lower than 6OA. Baltimore need the same result or worse as HON to keep 1OA. Berlin hold their fate in their own hands. A win gives them the #1 in NSFC, regardless of what COL do against NOLA. Even if COL beat NOLA, both teams will be at 13-3, with BER having a 10-2 div record to COL being 9-3 against the NSFC. If the Sallies lose, they need COL to lose. They also need to score 18 more points than Colorado, as both Berlin and Colorado will be at 12-4, with a 9-3 div record, with next criterion being offence, where COL hold a 17 point lead. Because I doubt we'd want to see it be decided on a coinflip. A BER loss and a COL win give COL #1, bye and HFA throughout, and BER are #2, hosting Sarasota in the wildcard game on Monday.
Now, let's get spicy. If Austin lose to Honolulu, they pick third no matter what. If they win, their pick position relies on the YKW @ PHI and CHI @ SAR results:
-If both CHI and PHI win or tie, Austin picks 3rd, with CHI being at 4 & 5. I have my doubts on the ties, as PHI and CHI have split the season series, but neither team has played Austin, and a 3-way at 5-10-1 comes up. If for any reason H2H is skipped, and we go to div record, CHI and PHI have 3-8-1 div records, to Austin's 4-7-1, meaning CHI picks 3 & 4, while Austin falls to 5.
-If both teams lose, Austin picks 5th, with CHI being at 3 & 4.
-If one wins and the other tie, PHI/CHI and AUS tie at 5-10-1. PHI/CHI have a worse div record, 3-8-1 to Austin's 4-7-1. Hence Austin pick at 5, and CHI get 3 & 4.
-If one win and the other lose, CHI picks at 3 & 5, Austin picks at 4.
-If one tie and the other lose, CHI/PHI and AUS tie at 5-10-1. CHI/PHI have a worse div record, 3-8-1 to Austin's 4-7-1. Hence Austin pick at 5, and CHI get 3 & 4.
-Reminder that PHI and CHI have 5-10 records, with 3-8 div records.
It gets less crazy if Austin ties and:
-CHI and PHI both lose. 3-way as Austin's 4-10-2 is the same to CHI and PHI being 5-11, same as AUS win, CHI and PHI tie.
-CHI and PHI both tie. Here, the draft order remains as it is.
-CHI and PHI both win. Again, the order remains untouched.
-If one wins and the other tie, the order remains as is.
-If one wins or ties and the other loses. The team that loses ties with Austin, and the other has a better record, meaning we go to div record, which Austin is better at, and CHI pick 3 & 5, while Austin picks 4th.
My head is actually burning with all this. But it doesn't end there. San Jose is picking 6th as we said, no matter what. But there will be a fight for 7OA and 8OA. Yellowknife pick 8th with a win, and the team that loses out among NOLA, NY, and OCO picks 7th. If YKW lose, their pick is determined by the team that misses out.
How is that team determined you may ask. Well, we got the answers. (the games in question are COL @ NOLA and OCO @ NY):
- NY beat OCO, NOLA loses: NY is #2 with 10-6, NOLA is #3 with 8-8, OCO is out with 8-8 and pick 7th, with YKW picking 8th. NOLA swept OCO in the regular season.
- NY beat OCO, NOLA wins: NY is #2 with 10-6, NOLA is #3 with 9-7, OCO is out with 8-8 and pick 7th, with YKW picking 8th.
- OCO beat NY, NOLA loses: OCO is #2 with 9-7, NY is #3 with 9-7, NOLA is out with 8-8 and pick 7th, with YKW picking 8th. OCO have a better divisional record (7-5 to NY 6-6), after forcing the split in the season series.
- OCO beat NY, NOLA win: We have a 3-way tie at 9-7. As mentioned above, in ties involving three or more teams, the first criterion is divisional record. In this scenario, NOLA are at 7-5, OCO are at 7-5, and NY are at 6-6 within the division. At this point, I want to mention that although I emailed the support team of Wolverine Studios, I did not get a clear response if in multi team ties the algorithm is looking for the top team or if any team that isn't tied anymore is eliminated. So here, we have two cases that we need to look at:
a) NY get the short end of the stick and NOLA remain tied with OCO. As two teams remain, H2H is used, and NOLA is #2, OCO is #3, and NY is out, with the same record as Yellowknife, winning this tie picking 7th and YKW getting the 8th pick.
b) The tie isn't resolved as there is no team WINNING the tie, meaning we get to the next criterion, that is Points For. Right now, NY have scored 404, NOLA have 393, and OCO have 377. This is where it gets complicated, and scores matter:
- OCO beat NY by 26 points or less. NY #2, NOLA #3, OCO #4, since NY win due to more PF, and with two teams remaining, reverting to H2H between OCO and NOLA.
- OCO beat NY by 27 points. OCO and NY have the same amount of points. Here, if NOLA score 16 points less than OCO, all three teams have the same PF and we go to a coinflip. If NOLA score 17 or more points less than OCO, again we go to a coinflip, as there is no winner in the tie. If NOLA score a maximum of 15 points less than OCO, they win the tie, getting #2, with OCO #3, and NY missing out on OCO having the better division record in the 2-way tie.
- OCO beat NY by 28 points or more. OCO has a better PF than NY. But it comes down to however many NOLA score. If they score 16 points less than OCO, a coinflip is forced. If NOLA score 17 or more points less than OCO, OCO #2, NOLA #3, NY out. If NOLA score a maximum of 15 points less than OCO, they win the tie, getting #2, with OCO #3, and NY missing out on OCO having the better division record in the 2-way tie.
As you can see, we are about to witness insanity tonight. Get your calculators out! It will be a loooooong night. No predictions this time. It was too tiring to prepare all this. See you tomorrow for a recap of tonight's action, and a playoff preview! See you on the stream at 8! Peace!
First things first, as always, let's start with the DSFL, and yesterday's action.
DSFL Week 13 results:
TIJ @ KC 23-30
POR @ BBB 36-14
NOR @ MIN 13-30
DAL @ LON 31-34
At Kansas city, both teams wanted the win. Tijuana needed to stay close to Dallas for the division title and HFA in the conference game against the Birddogs. Kansas City wanted the win to stay close to the Grey Ducks and punch their ticket to the playoffs. KC jumped to a 6-0 lead after 15 minutes, as K Izuku Campbell nailed one from 28 and one from 23. The Coyotes never lost the lead and, despite Tijuana tying the game at 23 apiece with 9:30 left in the game, got the win, after Gimmy Jaroppolo Jr. connected with malcador The Hero for 16 yards with 7:02 left in the game. There was a lot of time for Tijuana to drive and tie the game, but a turnover on downs with 2:40 left ended their comeback hopes. KC improve to 8-4-1, Tijuana drops to 8-5.
There is really not much to say about the POR @ BBB game, as it only had implications for the 1OA, and BBB lost, so task failed successfully I guess. At this point I will say that I have no clue regarding draft pick ownership, and I am only now opening the spreadsheet. Alright, I just checked, every DSFL team have their first rounders. So yeah, BBB are the proud owners of the 1OA for the upcoming DSFL draft. Let's hope they can make something out of it. Portland improves to 6-7, BBB drop to 2-11.
In Minnesota, the Grey Ducks were looking for one thing. Get the win that will keep them at the sole possession of the first place in NFC. Despite only scoring a fieldgoal in the first, the foot was stuck on the pedal for the remainder of the game. 17-3 lead after 30, 24-10 after 45, 30-13 after 60. The Ducks improve to 9-4, maintaining their 0.5 game lead over the Coyotes.
In the last game of the week, we saw another crazy game involving the Birddogs. This time, their dance partner was the Royals. Already eliminated after the KC win, it was only a matter of pride for the Royals, over their season 21 expansion "sister" team. On the other hand, that same KC win over Tijuana meant that Dallas could get closer to the division win with a win. It was pride against must. And it was nuts. London jumped to a 21-0 lead after one quarter. The game was looking like a wrap. Dallas went on a 24-0 run to respond, taking a 3 point lead, with 9:34 left in the third. Norfolk game all over again for the Birddogs. Game tied at 24, after a Rainbow Dash bomb from 48 yards, only for Dallas to score 99 seconds later, taking a 7 point lead heading into the 4th. Parmelee was on his usual bullshit though. Drove his team to the DAL 28 for a field goal. The defence did what they had to do, and Parm was on the ball, down 4 with 6:02 on the clock. The man just couldn't miss. One incompletion during that drive, and it was a drop. 8-9, 76 yards, 4:29. That's all it took for Dustin to put London up. Kick is good, and Dallas has 93 second to score. The London defence was suffocating once again, forcing a turnover on downs at midfield. Dallas drop to 8-5, London improve at 7-6.
The next games are scheduled for Monday, before the ISFL wildcard games. Let's have a look at them, and how they may affect the playoff picture and the draft order.
Current playoff picture:
NFC: KC @ MIN
SFC: TIJ @ DAL (Dallas has the better PF, with 412, to Tijuana's 305)
Current draft order:
1. BBB
2. NOR
3. POR
4. LON
Monday's schedule, in airing order
NOR @ TIJ
DAL @ BBB
LON @ POR
KC @ MIN
So let's start with the first two games of the day. I am grouping them together, as the only teams that have something to win or lose are Dallas and Tijuana. Norfolk and Bondi Beach are locked in their draft positions. Dallas and Tijuana are tied at 8-5, atop the SFC, have split their season series, and they both have a 4-1 division record. Dallas holds the tie due to being the better team in the sim's next tie-breaking criterion, Poitns For. For reference, the tiebreakers are H2H > Division record > Conf record > PF > Coinflip. As Division equals conference in our league, we go straight to Points For. Which is offence. And Dallas have scored 107 more points than Tijuana. Why is that important? If Dallas and Tijuana end up having the same outcome in their games, if Tijuana score 108 points more than Dallas do, the Lucha win the division. If Tijuana score 107 points more than Dallas do, we are going on a coinflip. Fun way to win your division, huh? And needless to say, if either team wins and the other loses, the winner gets the HFA in the grudge match, for all the marbles. The LON @ POR game only has draft implications. The loser gets 3OA, the winner gets 4OA. London is 7-6, while Portland is 6-7. London won the first meeting between the two teams. London get to +2 with a win. If Portland win, they even the season series, but have a better conference record, as the two teams hold a 2-3 conf record currently, hence dropping down a spot. The KC @ MIN is simple. Winner gets HFA for the trilogy for all the marbles.
Now let's get to the big league. Wednesday was action packed, with the image getting clearer, and two tickets left to be decided later tonight.
ISFL Week 15 results:
PHI @ BER 20-26
CHI @ YKW 24-27
COL @ SAR 30-13
BAL @ AUS 14-26
OCO @ AZ 21-24
HON @ NY 24-17
SJS @ NOLA 25-40
In the first game of the week, it was business as usual for Berlin, over already eliminated Philly. Berlin was comfortably in the lead for the majority of the game, and notched their 12th win of the season, in the hunt for the bye to the conference championship game and homefield advantage through all playoffs. Philly dropped to 5-10. Over in Yellowknife, in a close game, the Wraiths did their job against the Chicago Butchers, in a game with five lead changes, two of them within 67 seconds, late in the fourth quarter. The teams headed to the locker rooms after 30 minutes with YKW having a 7 point lead, that was squandered 7 minutes into the second half. Despite that, the Wraiths had a 3 point lead after three quarters. With 99 seconds left, O'Donnell found Gelbman in the endzone for six. Sidekick kick good, Butchers up by 4. Jack was on his MVP shit though. He only needed 67 seconds to drive his team downfield and find Zee Rechs in the endzone. Kokot made the kick, and it was all over. Really a shame YKW are not playing in the ASFC.
One of the key games of the week happened in Sarasota. Both teams wanted to win, chasing after the bye and HFA through Ultimus. Sarasota would jump up to #1 in the NSFC, holding their fate in their hands on Week 16. Colorado would still need a Berlin loss next week. Colorado proved to be too much for the Sailfish. Despite a close first half that saw the Yeti only have a 7-6 lead, Colorado turned up the jets in the second half. 20-6 was the score after 3, 30-6 with 1:55 left in the game. Sarasota drop to 10-5, and will travel either to Colorado or Berlin in the wildcard game, as the #3 seed from NSFC. Colorado improve to 12-3, catching Berlin to the top of the division. In Austin, Baltimore did what they had to do to get the 1OA. They lost. That's it about that game. Task failed successfully for Baltimore, Austin is going to pick 3rd at best. Baltimore drop to 3-12, Austin improve to 4-10-1. In probably the most important game of the week, a game both teams wanted to win. OCO to lock playoffs, AZ to get closer to a division win. It was a gruesome battle, with the Outlaws up 17-14 entering the fourth. It felt it would end like this until craziness decided to visit the stadium. With 1:23 left, Goat Tank punched it in from 9 yards out, putting OCO up. Cortez would only have 83 seconds to do his magic. He only needed a play. 82 yards to Darren Pama, AZ up 24-21, which ended up being the final score, and eyes set to NY for Arizona, who improved to 10-5, and NOLA for OCO, that dropped to 8-7, as their playoff futures would be decided there. In New York, we witnessed the upset of the week. A win Honolulu may regret, as it may cost them the 1OA pick in the draft. They improved to 3-12, same record as Baltimore, tied for worst in the league, but a 1-10 division record for Baltimore gives the Hawks the 1OA, forcing HON to settle for 2OA. However, there was a team that benefited from that HON win. Arizona. As they secured the #1 seed in the ASFC field, along with a bye to the championship game. NY drop to 9-6, and now have to hope for a SJS win so they don't end up in weird situations in week 16.
And it was time. As the previous games played out, this game would determine the fate of THREE teams. NOLA picked up where they left off against Orange County, leading by 27 midway though the third. An easy win for NOLA, an elimination for San Jose, and now Orange County was the team on the outside looking in, as NOLA own the h2h, with both teams tied at 8-7. San Jose drop to 6-8-1.
The next games are scheduled for tonight, at 8pm EST
Current playoff Picture
ASFC: NOLA @ NY, AZ have a bye
NSFC: SAR @ COL, BER have a bye (BER owns the tie over COL due to better div record, 9-2 to COL being 9-3)
Current draft order:
1. BAL
2. HON
3. AUS
4. CHI (via PHI)
5. CHI
6. SJS
7. OCO
8. YKW
Notes: BAL over HON due to divisional record (BAL 1-10, HON 3-8). PHI over CHI due to PD (PHI -51, CHI -10)
Tonight's schedule, in airing order
AUS @ HON
NY @ OCO
AZ @ SJS
COL @ NOLA
CHI @ SAR
YKW @ PHI
BER @ BAL
Ok people, buckle up. First, let's remember the tiebreakers. For two teams, it is H2H > Division record > Best Offence > Coinflip. For three teams, The criteria stay the same, except for H2H being tossed out of the window, so we are left with Division record > Best Offence > Coinflip. For draft picks, it's H2H > Division record > Point Differential (Offence - Defence) > Coinflip. First of all, let's see what games have zero implication. Well, almost all of them mean something. Either it's playoffs or draft order. The only game no team has something to gain from is the SJS @ AZ game. AZ are locked at #1, SJS can't go higher or lower than 6OA. Baltimore need the same result or worse as HON to keep 1OA. Berlin hold their fate in their own hands. A win gives them the #1 in NSFC, regardless of what COL do against NOLA. Even if COL beat NOLA, both teams will be at 13-3, with BER having a 10-2 div record to COL being 9-3 against the NSFC. If the Sallies lose, they need COL to lose. They also need to score 18 more points than Colorado, as both Berlin and Colorado will be at 12-4, with a 9-3 div record, with next criterion being offence, where COL hold a 17 point lead. Because I doubt we'd want to see it be decided on a coinflip. A BER loss and a COL win give COL #1, bye and HFA throughout, and BER are #2, hosting Sarasota in the wildcard game on Monday.
Now, let's get spicy. If Austin lose to Honolulu, they pick third no matter what. If they win, their pick position relies on the YKW @ PHI and CHI @ SAR results:
-If both CHI and PHI win or tie, Austin picks 3rd, with CHI being at 4 & 5. I have my doubts on the ties, as PHI and CHI have split the season series, but neither team has played Austin, and a 3-way at 5-10-1 comes up. If for any reason H2H is skipped, and we go to div record, CHI and PHI have 3-8-1 div records, to Austin's 4-7-1, meaning CHI picks 3 & 4, while Austin falls to 5.
-If both teams lose, Austin picks 5th, with CHI being at 3 & 4.
-If one wins and the other tie, PHI/CHI and AUS tie at 5-10-1. PHI/CHI have a worse div record, 3-8-1 to Austin's 4-7-1. Hence Austin pick at 5, and CHI get 3 & 4.
-If one win and the other lose, CHI picks at 3 & 5, Austin picks at 4.
-If one tie and the other lose, CHI/PHI and AUS tie at 5-10-1. CHI/PHI have a worse div record, 3-8-1 to Austin's 4-7-1. Hence Austin pick at 5, and CHI get 3 & 4.
-Reminder that PHI and CHI have 5-10 records, with 3-8 div records.
It gets less crazy if Austin ties and:
-CHI and PHI both lose. 3-way as Austin's 4-10-2 is the same to CHI and PHI being 5-11, same as AUS win, CHI and PHI tie.
-CHI and PHI both tie. Here, the draft order remains as it is.
-CHI and PHI both win. Again, the order remains untouched.
-If one wins and the other tie, the order remains as is.
-If one wins or ties and the other loses. The team that loses ties with Austin, and the other has a better record, meaning we go to div record, which Austin is better at, and CHI pick 3 & 5, while Austin picks 4th.
My head is actually burning with all this. But it doesn't end there. San Jose is picking 6th as we said, no matter what. But there will be a fight for 7OA and 8OA. Yellowknife pick 8th with a win, and the team that loses out among NOLA, NY, and OCO picks 7th. If YKW lose, their pick is determined by the team that misses out.
How is that team determined you may ask. Well, we got the answers. (the games in question are COL @ NOLA and OCO @ NY):
- NY beat OCO, NOLA loses: NY is #2 with 10-6, NOLA is #3 with 8-8, OCO is out with 8-8 and pick 7th, with YKW picking 8th. NOLA swept OCO in the regular season.
- NY beat OCO, NOLA wins: NY is #2 with 10-6, NOLA is #3 with 9-7, OCO is out with 8-8 and pick 7th, with YKW picking 8th.
- OCO beat NY, NOLA loses: OCO is #2 with 9-7, NY is #3 with 9-7, NOLA is out with 8-8 and pick 7th, with YKW picking 8th. OCO have a better divisional record (7-5 to NY 6-6), after forcing the split in the season series.
- OCO beat NY, NOLA win: We have a 3-way tie at 9-7. As mentioned above, in ties involving three or more teams, the first criterion is divisional record. In this scenario, NOLA are at 7-5, OCO are at 7-5, and NY are at 6-6 within the division. At this point, I want to mention that although I emailed the support team of Wolverine Studios, I did not get a clear response if in multi team ties the algorithm is looking for the top team or if any team that isn't tied anymore is eliminated. So here, we have two cases that we need to look at:
a) NY get the short end of the stick and NOLA remain tied with OCO. As two teams remain, H2H is used, and NOLA is #2, OCO is #3, and NY is out, with the same record as Yellowknife, winning this tie picking 7th and YKW getting the 8th pick.
b) The tie isn't resolved as there is no team WINNING the tie, meaning we get to the next criterion, that is Points For. Right now, NY have scored 404, NOLA have 393, and OCO have 377. This is where it gets complicated, and scores matter:
- OCO beat NY by 26 points or less. NY #2, NOLA #3, OCO #4, since NY win due to more PF, and with two teams remaining, reverting to H2H between OCO and NOLA.
- OCO beat NY by 27 points. OCO and NY have the same amount of points. Here, if NOLA score 16 points less than OCO, all three teams have the same PF and we go to a coinflip. If NOLA score 17 or more points less than OCO, again we go to a coinflip, as there is no winner in the tie. If NOLA score a maximum of 15 points less than OCO, they win the tie, getting #2, with OCO #3, and NY missing out on OCO having the better division record in the 2-way tie.
- OCO beat NY by 28 points or more. OCO has a better PF than NY. But it comes down to however many NOLA score. If they score 16 points less than OCO, a coinflip is forced. If NOLA score 17 or more points less than OCO, OCO #2, NOLA #3, NY out. If NOLA score a maximum of 15 points less than OCO, they win the tie, getting #2, with OCO #3, and NY missing out on OCO having the better division record in the 2-way tie.
As you can see, we are about to witness insanity tonight. Get your calculators out! It will be a loooooong night. No predictions this time. It was too tiring to prepare all this. See you tomorrow for a recap of tonight's action, and a playoff preview! See you on the stream at 8! Peace!