09-20-2021, 05:25 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2021, 08:56 AM by Crunk. Edited 4 times in total.)
Since the future's isn't finished yet we enter this Week with a 0-0 record
But it looks like we have some juicy sportsbook action for week 5, so which are the Pick 6's this week? here we go!
1. Cobra Kai Rushing Yards: 85.5 (Under wins) [Loss]
While Kai has only hit this mark once in 4 games this season, they were all against arguably strong run defense teams. This week, HON goes up against SJS and in their last two games, SJS's run defense has gotten shelled. Most recently by Rotchburns for 122 yards. Kai is the primary back and he averages between 7-19ish carries a game. Now, if HON doesn't run the ball, he's not going to hit 86 yards, clearly, but if he's around the 15+ mark, with his average of 4 yards per carry, this should be a no brainer on the over if you factor in SJS's lack of run defense.
Take the over here.
2. Zoe Watts Touches: 18.5 (Under wins) [Loss]
Zoe's been hovering around this mark for 3 of the 4 games so far, the only time she's missed this mark by a lot is when Aus is losing late the in game, and they're airing it out as they should. Here's the thing, they're playing Berlin this week, and in a battle of a 3-1 team vs a 1-3 team, you take the 3-1 team. In the 3 wins this season so far Zoe's been carrying the ball 17-18-19 times which is right in the middle. She should be killing the clock in the 4th quarter when the game is all but sealed tonight so she'll get some extra touches there as well. Conservatively, take the over here
3. IsHe... ReallyInvisible Passing Yards : 165.5 (Over wins) [Loss]
This one is pretty simple on paper as well, ReallyInvisible passes well when NOLA wins, and passes not so well when NOLA loses. This week, they're up against Arizona, a preseason perennial favorite that seems to be slow out of the gate. However they are still a beast on defense and NOLA while surprising many with their 2-2 start does not win tonight and as such ReallyInvisible does not hit the mark of 166 yards passing tonight. Take the under
4. Luke Quick Receiving Yards: 87.5 (Under Wins) [Win]
This is probably the toughest one to call this week due to a potential conflict of interest. Quick has lit it up his last 2 games against Berlin and a blowout loss to Philly. His previous two games however, he was held to under 80 yards. This week they're playing the Butchers and he will draw against PickSix II himself who is looking to shut him down. PickSix II is a boom or bust CB as he goes for the PD almost every time and currently is tied for the league lead in that category. This means, if Quick gets past PickSix II he's gonna gain some yardage, but if he gets shut down and PickSix II gets 4 PD's then his targets are not gonna be there for him to make this game. Due to the conflict of interest, I have to side with my own character and take the under, but I do not feel great about this one.
5. Away Wins: 2.5 (Over Wins) [Win]
Is home field advantage even a thing anymore in this sim? In the last 4 weeks there have been 28 games, with the home team winning 13 of them, for less than 50%. There are 7 games tonight, if this statistic holds true, then simply based on the math alone the over will take this. But let's take a look more in depth to see which Away teams will add to this magic number of 3. The Yeti are on the road against the Wraiths, and currently sport a 3-0-0 road record. This should be number 4, and therefore 1 win for the away team. The Butchers are also away against the Hawks tonight and currently are perfect on the road with a 2-0-0 record. This should be win number 2 for the away team. Therefore, out of the remaining 5 games, we just need 1 away team to squeeze a victory tonight. Take the over here for sure
6. YKW DEF Takeaways: 1.5 (Under Wins) [Loss]
Yukon's defense has stepped it up in the last 2 games, however the only true time they were above 2 takeaways on their defense was week 3, and both INTs were from Johnny Hellzapoppin. While their LB core does force fumbles here and there, they do not recover them and therefore it doesn't count as a takeaway. Does Johnny have a 2 INT game in him tonight against the Yeti? Hard to say, Calliban has thrown 2, 1, 0, 2 picks in his last 4 games. Calliban alone in 2 of these games ensures an over win. But is 1 pick and 1 FR too much to hope for? I don't think so, take the over here as I think Calliban will throw an INT and YKW will recover at least a fumble in this game.
Summary: PickSix's Picks
Cobra Kai Rushing Yards: 85.5 - Over
Zoe Watts Touches: 18.5 - Over
IsHe... ReallyInvisible Passing Yards : 165.5 - Under
Luke Quick Receiving Yards: 87.5 - Under
Away Wins: 2.5 - Over
YKW DEF Takeaways: 1.5 - Over
PickSix's record through week 5: 2-4
Edit: OOF, not the best start
But it looks like we have some juicy sportsbook action for week 5, so which are the Pick 6's this week? here we go!
1. Cobra Kai Rushing Yards: 85.5 (Under wins) [Loss]
While Kai has only hit this mark once in 4 games this season, they were all against arguably strong run defense teams. This week, HON goes up against SJS and in their last two games, SJS's run defense has gotten shelled. Most recently by Rotchburns for 122 yards. Kai is the primary back and he averages between 7-19ish carries a game. Now, if HON doesn't run the ball, he's not going to hit 86 yards, clearly, but if he's around the 15+ mark, with his average of 4 yards per carry, this should be a no brainer on the over if you factor in SJS's lack of run defense.
Take the over here.
2. Zoe Watts Touches: 18.5 (Under wins) [Loss]
Zoe's been hovering around this mark for 3 of the 4 games so far, the only time she's missed this mark by a lot is when Aus is losing late the in game, and they're airing it out as they should. Here's the thing, they're playing Berlin this week, and in a battle of a 3-1 team vs a 1-3 team, you take the 3-1 team. In the 3 wins this season so far Zoe's been carrying the ball 17-18-19 times which is right in the middle. She should be killing the clock in the 4th quarter when the game is all but sealed tonight so she'll get some extra touches there as well. Conservatively, take the over here
3. IsHe... ReallyInvisible Passing Yards : 165.5 (Over wins) [Loss]
This one is pretty simple on paper as well, ReallyInvisible passes well when NOLA wins, and passes not so well when NOLA loses. This week, they're up against Arizona, a preseason perennial favorite that seems to be slow out of the gate. However they are still a beast on defense and NOLA while surprising many with their 2-2 start does not win tonight and as such ReallyInvisible does not hit the mark of 166 yards passing tonight. Take the under
4. Luke Quick Receiving Yards: 87.5 (Under Wins) [Win]
This is probably the toughest one to call this week due to a potential conflict of interest. Quick has lit it up his last 2 games against Berlin and a blowout loss to Philly. His previous two games however, he was held to under 80 yards. This week they're playing the Butchers and he will draw against PickSix II himself who is looking to shut him down. PickSix II is a boom or bust CB as he goes for the PD almost every time and currently is tied for the league lead in that category. This means, if Quick gets past PickSix II he's gonna gain some yardage, but if he gets shut down and PickSix II gets 4 PD's then his targets are not gonna be there for him to make this game. Due to the conflict of interest, I have to side with my own character and take the under, but I do not feel great about this one.
5. Away Wins: 2.5 (Over Wins) [Win]
Is home field advantage even a thing anymore in this sim? In the last 4 weeks there have been 28 games, with the home team winning 13 of them, for less than 50%. There are 7 games tonight, if this statistic holds true, then simply based on the math alone the over will take this. But let's take a look more in depth to see which Away teams will add to this magic number of 3. The Yeti are on the road against the Wraiths, and currently sport a 3-0-0 road record. This should be number 4, and therefore 1 win for the away team. The Butchers are also away against the Hawks tonight and currently are perfect on the road with a 2-0-0 record. This should be win number 2 for the away team. Therefore, out of the remaining 5 games, we just need 1 away team to squeeze a victory tonight. Take the over here for sure
6. YKW DEF Takeaways: 1.5 (Under Wins) [Loss]
Yukon's defense has stepped it up in the last 2 games, however the only true time they were above 2 takeaways on their defense was week 3, and both INTs were from Johnny Hellzapoppin. While their LB core does force fumbles here and there, they do not recover them and therefore it doesn't count as a takeaway. Does Johnny have a 2 INT game in him tonight against the Yeti? Hard to say, Calliban has thrown 2, 1, 0, 2 picks in his last 4 games. Calliban alone in 2 of these games ensures an over win. But is 1 pick and 1 FR too much to hope for? I don't think so, take the over here as I think Calliban will throw an INT and YKW will recover at least a fumble in this game.
Summary: PickSix's Picks
Cobra Kai Rushing Yards: 85.5 - Over
Zoe Watts Touches: 18.5 - Over
IsHe... ReallyInvisible Passing Yards : 165.5 - Under
Luke Quick Receiving Yards: 87.5 - Under
Away Wins: 2.5 - Over
YKW DEF Takeaways: 1.5 - Over
PickSix's record through week 5: 2-4
Edit: OOF, not the best start