09-19-2021, 09:56 PM
(This post was last modified: 10-03-2021, 08:55 AM by Crunk. Edited 1 time in total.)
How did your team’s playoff chances change after weeks three and four? Read below to find out!
Unfortunately for the very curious, I am too lazy at this point to sim both weeks three and four, so I am only looking at the results after the week four games. When I sum up the entire season, I will probably go in and fill in the missing results. But for another mid-season update, you get what you get.
This time, we start in the NSFC! There is plenty of mayhem to cover here.
The team least likely to make the playoffs in the NSFC is: Yellowknife. The Wraiths, once again, come in dead last. Their average finishing position improved from 6.6 to 6.2 as a result of their wins against Philadelphia and Berlin, but both of those are teams who have been on the edges of the playoff picture at best, so their odds don’t improve. Yellowknife did not make the playoffs in a single sim of the regular season. Their next game is at home against Colorado. An upset there might actually boost the Wraiths back into the picture, but as things stand right now, they are closer to the bottom than the top in the season sims. They finished as high as fourth, but landed in seventh most frequently. There really isn’t much more to say about the Wraiths. They are in a bad position early, despite being in the middle of the conference table so far.
The next least likely team to find themselves in the playoffs are the Berlin FireSalamanders. The flaming geckos made the playoffs in 20% of my sims and managed an average finishing position of fifth. After week two, they were in the playoffs 40% of the time and had an average finishing position of 3.7. That’s a pretty huge drop off. Yet it is to be expected given their results. Berlin is going through a rough part of the schedule. They open with a string of conference games and are in the middle of a three game road streak. Their chances improved dramatically after beating the Sailfish in week two, but losing to two fringe teams in Baltimore and Yellowknife sends their chances plummeting again. It really will be interesting going back to look at week three and seeing which of those games hurts the most, but for now that remains a mystery. Their next game is on the road at Austin, so I don’t expect that one to have much of an impact on their chances, but every win does matter. Following that, they take on Chicago and Philadelphia. Those two could be huge for them. You hate to have do or die games in the first half of the season, but you can’t fall to 1-5 in the division and expect to have a realistic chance at the playoffs, so they probably need to win both of those to keep their hopes alive.
Next up is a tie, but we will focus first on the Baltimore Hawks. Given everything that culminated with the loss of Chunt the Badger to NYS, I was a little surprised to see Baltimore’s playoff odds and average finishing positions imrpvoing. But they did. Their finishing position and playoff odds have improved after every single week. They started the season with an average finishing place of 5.3 and a playoff appearance rate of 13.3%. Now, their average finishing position is 4.7 and they appeared in the playoffs in 26.7% of my sims. After week four, they finished as high as second in the conference, but they also managed to drop as low as last place. Their most common finishing place was fourth. Baltimore finds themselves at 2-2, but they are 2-1 in the conference with wins over Yellowknife and Berlin. Their blowout loss to Philadelphia probably slowed their rise, but the team is still continuing to edge up in the standings. Their next three games are against Chicago, Sarasota, and at Colorado. I think coming out of those games with a win or two would go a long way. All three teams have a better playoff chance as things stand right now than the Hawks, so even stealing one win could be huge in helping them sneak into the top three. Losing all three probably doesn’t hurt their chances too much, but it certainly wouldn’t help. Realistically, though, I am not sure I see the Hawks managing to win more than one, and Chicago seems like the most likely spot to steal a game. That is certainly a matchup to watch in week five.
Tied with Baltimore at a playoff appearance rate of 26.7% are the Philadelphia Liberty. Philadelphia is yet another team that sits at 2-2 in the early season and they have a winning record within the conference. The Liberty are coming off a loss to Yellowknife in week 3 and a win against Baltimore in week 4. The loss to Yellowknife looks, at this early stage, nearly catastrophic for the Liberty. But, they managed to stem the bleeding by picking up a win against Baltimore in week four. Philadelphia’s playoff appearance rate has never been lower than it is right now. After week one, they were at 40%. After week two, it was all the way up to 46.7, which is nearly a 50/50. Now, it is just better than one in four. Their average finishing position has also fallen to a new season low for them at 4.4. They finished as high as first in the conference and as low as seventh. They still seem like a massive wild card for this season with appearances throughout the entire table. They finished in fifth most frequently, which I’m sure will be disappointing for them given that they’ve been hovering around 3 and 4 in the first few weeks of the season. Yet there still has to be hope. The Liberty have three huge games coming up on the road against Sarasota and Colorado before returning home to take on Berlin. Sarasota and Colorado (spoiler alert) have been the clear favorites to win the conference, so a win against either of them would be huge and could go a long way in playing spoiler for someone. Losing to both wouldn’t be a surprise though, and probably wouldn’t hurt Philly’s chances too much as Philly’s finishes towards the top of the conference have been rare. Losing to Berlin would be a tough pill to swallow, but a win there probably doesn’t do too much for their chances as they are already ahead at this point in the season. But who knows how things will look by the time we are in week 7.
Next up are the Chicago Butchers, who have been flying up through the rankings since the start of the season. The Butchers started the season with an average finishing position of 4.8 and a playoff appearance rate of 13.3%. Now, they are looking at an average finishing place of 4.1 and made the playoffs in 46.7% of my recent sims. Making the playoffs nearly half the time is a huge win considering where the Butchers started, and they are now looking like the team to beat if you want the coveted three-seed in the playoffs this season, despite still being in the mix of teams that are 2-2 in the NSFC. The Butchers won on the road in Honolulu in week three before returning home and taking a beating from Sarasota, which left the Butchers with a losing record in the division, however both of those losses are at the hands of teams who will likely be the one and two seed when the regular season finally comes to a close. The Butchers have a string of winnable games coming up as they travel to Baltimore and Berlin before taking on Yellowknife at home. That will be a really interesting string of games for them and those three games could go a long way in determining who will end up with that final playoff spot. The Butchers finished third more than any other position. They placed as high as second, but as poorly as sixth. There is still a lot of time for them to cement their position or find a way to give it up.
The second most likely team to land in the playoffs are the Colorado Yeti. Despite sitting atop the conference at 3-1 and coming off a huge win against Sarasota and a nice second win on the road against Orange County, the Yeti “only” make the playoffs in 87% of my sims. There is still a lot of wiggle room in the conference. The Yeti have placed their hopes entire on Caliban and it seems like sometimes the sim just decides he’s going to have another rough season down the stretch. But for now, the Yeti find themselves 2-1 in the division with wins against Sarasota and Berlin and one black spot against Chicago. The Yeti finished most frequently in first, and as mentioned earlier, are in the playoffs in almost 90% of my sims. The Yeti’s lowest finish on the season was a depressive fifth place, and at least on one occasion I noticed we missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record. It could very well take 10 or more wins to secure a playoff spot in the NSFC, which seems poised to have some late season chaos. The Yeti have a stretch of games that all seem very winnable. We take on Yellowknife, Philly, and Baltimore next irl week. A loss in any of those probably sends the Yeti’s chances tumbling a little bit as it opens the door even wider for more chaos. You can’t sleep on any of those teams, though. At least two of them are very much still in the picture. I believe the Yeti still have to be the favorites at this point in the season thanks to that huge win against Sarasota, but there is still a lot of time for things to go wrong and the sim has a lot of variability built into this conference, so nothing can be certain.
The team most likely to make the playoffs are the Sarasota Sailfish, who found themselves sin the postseason in 93% of my sims. The Sailfish averaged a final placement of 1.9, finished most frequently in second, and finished no worse than fourth place. They are a very strong team that is looking to make a splash in this season’s race for the championship. They suffered a stinging loss at home against Colorado in week four, but bounced back with a huge win against Chicago. Their next games see them taking on Philadelphia and Baltimore, which I expect will be wins for the Sailfish. But, next irl Friday, they take on Arizona from the ASFC. Because it is out of conference, I doubt it impacts their playoff chances too much, but it is a nice taste of what a playoff game will likely be like and could even be a likely preview of the final game of the season. The Sailfish have the second best average finishing position and the best playoff appearance rate in the NSFC. While there is still some doubt, they will probably end up in the postseason and have a good shot at finding themselves in the #1 seed.
NSFC:
1. Sarasota – in playoffs 93% of the time
2. Colorado – in playoffs 87% of the time
3. Chicago – in playoffs 47% of the time
T4. Baltimore and Philadelphia – in playoffs 27% of the time.
6. Berlin – in playoffs 20% of the time
7. Yellowknife – in playoffs 0% of the time.
I have a few closing thoughts. The conference seems primed for chaos. Even Sarasota and Colorado, who are the obvious favorites to take the top seeds, still have small chances of missing the playoffs entirely. While Chicago looks best for the three seed, all three of Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Berlin are in a decent position to make a run should Chicago falter. And I wouldn’t count Yellowknife out entirely yet. They could still play spoiler and work themselves back into things, even if it seems unlikely right now. There is a lot of possibility for mayhem left in the season. We are, after all, only a quarter of the way through. That said, I expect one of the Yeti or Sailfish to take the one seed and both should make the playoffs, barring an epic collapse.
Now, we move on to the ASFC!
This week’s least likely team to make a playoff appearance in the ASFC is a tie, but we will start with New Orleans. The SecondLine had a 0% chance of making the playoffs after week 2 and that has not changed. Their average finishing position increased slightly from 6.5 to 6.3, but that could be due to the small sample size. The SecondLine are coming in at 2-2 and are 1-2 in their conference. They lost to New York before turning around and beating San Jose in week 4. The win against San Jose, though, probably does not help their cause very much as San Jose is the other team who failed to make the playoffs in my sims. In the next week, New Orleans will face off against Arizona, Orange County, and Austin. The games against Arizona and Austin will be very tough and I am not sure that knocking one of them down a notch would really help NOLA’s case, although doing so early in the season is a good time to do it as the teams are still all pretty tightly packed together. The game against Orange County is certainly winnable, though. Picking up a win there might boost their chances a little bit, as OCO has a playoff appearance rate greater than zero.
San Jose is sitting at 1-3, has not won a division game, and is coming off a bad loss to Austin and a close loss to Austin. They are the second ASFC team that failed to make a playoff appearance in my sims. The SaberCats didn’t have the greatest playoff chances to begin with, coming in at 26.7% after their week one win against Baltimore. Losing to New York in week two cut their chances in half. Losing to Austin and, more importantly, New Orleans, completely killed off those chances. With the ASFC also having a pretty tight race for that third and final spot in the playoffs, losing to a team in the mix really hurts your chances. The Sabercats had an average finishing position of 5.7 (down from 4.9 after week 2) and their playoff chances dropped from 13.3 to nada. Next up, the SaberCats take on Honolulu, Arizona, and Orange County. The Arizona game you can probably write off, but anything is possible. The games against Honolulu and Orange County are probably the best chances San Jose will have at getting themselves back into the thick of the playoff race. It is still early in the season, so winning those games gives them huge wins over conference opponents and puts them back in a position to capitalize if other teams falter.
Next up we have ANOTHER TIE. This one is between Orange County and Honolulu and we will start with Orange County because I think their situation is interesting. The Otters started the season with an average finishing position of 5.9. Despite losing in week two, they improved their average finishing position to 5.1, but their playoff odds stayed the same at a slight 6.7% appearance rate. Then, in week three, they did something truly special and upset Arizona before losing to the Yeti in week four. Their finishing position rose again to 4.7. And yet their playoff odds are exactly the same at 6.7%. their odds have not changed at all since I’ve been doing these tests, which is pretty fascinating to me. I suspect some of it may be having a smaller sample size, but that means through three weeks of testing they have made the playoffs at exactly the same rate across all three pools of tests, which is pretty neat I think. The Otters take on New York, New Orleans, and San Jose in their next three games. New York has been the team looking best positioned to take the three seed recently while NOLA and San Jose have struggled. I am really not sure how these next three games will impact their future, regardless of wins or losses. Obviously New York is favored over OCO and the other two are not, but unless OCO somehow wins all three I am not sure I see a big change in their future. But by this time next week we will know for sure.
Honolulu’s playoff appearance rate has dropped to 6.7% after holding steady at 20% following weeks one and two. The Hahalua got off to a good start by securing wins against New Orleans and Orange County, but lost both games in the double sim on Friday to Chicago and Arizona. I am not entirely sure the losses had as much of an impact on their playoff chances as New York winning both games did. Losing to a team who is expected to finish in the top two should not make too much of a difference unless you are the other team competing for a top two spot. Honolulu was not in the mix for the top two during my tests, so I don’t think the Arizona game mattered too much. The loss to Chicago was out of conference, so unless any loss mattered that much I am not too sure how much of an impact that might have had, but I doubt it was significant. The Hahalua still have a winning record in the playoffs, but their odds of making an appearance just are not impressive at this point in the season.
Next up are the New York Silverbacks, who have increased their appearance rate from 46.7% in week one to 73.3% in week two, and finally to 86.7% after week four. New York is on a three game winning streak after losing to the Outlaws in week one and their playoff appearance results are looking better and better as a result. The Silverbacks are coming off wins against New Orleans and Austin in the double sim Friday. New York has been in the best position to claim the three seed since week two, but their recent string of wins has only further cemented their chances. New York looks like a playoff team so far this season, and while there are certainly situations in which they miss the postseason, the chances are getting better and better for them. With their most recent wins, their average finishing position rises from 3.3 after week two to 2.8 after week four. They finished most frequently in third and were never worse than fifth. In at least one sim, they managed to hold onto the top seed, where they currently sit, and earned the first week bye. They certainly seem poised to be in the playoffs and maybe even for a top seed. New York is off to a strong start. Their next three games will pit them against Orange County, Yellowknife, and Honolulu. All three of those games strike me as being very winnable for them.
Next up is ANOTHER tie between Arizona and Austin. Both of these teams made the playoffs in every single one of my sims this week. Arizona has an edge in average finishing position (1.4 vs Austin’s 2.0), but both teams finished at the very top of the conference more than anywhere else. Arizona’s finishing position is back up to where it was after week one. That surprises me a bit, but I suspect they had a lot of help from New York, who managed to steal a win from the Copperheads in week four. It is important to remember, I think, that Austin has a win in hand over Arizona after beating them 23-20 in week two and dropping Arizona’s playoff chances to a still very impressive 93.3%. But Arizona got a lucky break and is right back into competition for the one seed, despite dropping a surprising loss against Orange County. Austin had the edge in average finishing position and a tie in playoff appearance rate after they managed to beat Arizona in week two, but New York had other ideas and pulled off an impressive win in week four. I’ll stop mentioning that now. That game gives Arizona an edge in the sims again, even though Austin currently has a game in hand against the Outlaws. Things are still early, though, so there is plenty of time for chaos. I do think one of these two teams will be at the top of the standings, although if New York can manage to keep winning games I think they have a good chance at making the race for the 1 seed more interesting than it seemed earlier in the season. It will be really interesting to see the order of this top three, but it really looks like the top three is already set, even though we are a quarter of the way into the season. It is still to early to say for sure, though, so don’t tune out just yet.
ASFC:
T1. Arizona & Austin – made playoffs 100% of the time
3. New York – made playoffs 87% of the time
T4. Orange County & Honolulu – made playoffs 6.7% of the time
T6. New Orleans and San Jose – made playoffs 0% of the time.
While there are a lot of ties and interesting things going on in the ASFC, the playoff picture already looks surprisingly set. Yes, New York isn’t a lock and yes, things can happen that will change the balance. It is entirely possible that someone goes on a run in the near future and shakes things up and I really hope that happens. I don’t really want to write about the same teams being more and more locked into the playoff picture, although if that is going to happen I hope that New York can at least keep winning and make the race for the one seed more and more interesting as things go on. A three team race is more fun than a two team race, after all. I wouldn’t be bothered if one of the other four teams decided to start winning some upsets to make things more interesting either. Give us some drama, ASFC!
Thank you all for the positive response in the last edition of this one. I really am happy that some people are enjoying these little articles and they’ve been surprisingly fun to produce. I hoe this one is equally enjoyable and that you continue to be interested in the updates. It’s more fun to write these for people who enjoy them than it is just to inflate my fake bank account. Thanks, all! Have a great week.
Unfortunately for the very curious, I am too lazy at this point to sim both weeks three and four, so I am only looking at the results after the week four games. When I sum up the entire season, I will probably go in and fill in the missing results. But for another mid-season update, you get what you get.
This time, we start in the NSFC! There is plenty of mayhem to cover here.
The team least likely to make the playoffs in the NSFC is: Yellowknife. The Wraiths, once again, come in dead last. Their average finishing position improved from 6.6 to 6.2 as a result of their wins against Philadelphia and Berlin, but both of those are teams who have been on the edges of the playoff picture at best, so their odds don’t improve. Yellowknife did not make the playoffs in a single sim of the regular season. Their next game is at home against Colorado. An upset there might actually boost the Wraiths back into the picture, but as things stand right now, they are closer to the bottom than the top in the season sims. They finished as high as fourth, but landed in seventh most frequently. There really isn’t much more to say about the Wraiths. They are in a bad position early, despite being in the middle of the conference table so far.
The next least likely team to find themselves in the playoffs are the Berlin FireSalamanders. The flaming geckos made the playoffs in 20% of my sims and managed an average finishing position of fifth. After week two, they were in the playoffs 40% of the time and had an average finishing position of 3.7. That’s a pretty huge drop off. Yet it is to be expected given their results. Berlin is going through a rough part of the schedule. They open with a string of conference games and are in the middle of a three game road streak. Their chances improved dramatically after beating the Sailfish in week two, but losing to two fringe teams in Baltimore and Yellowknife sends their chances plummeting again. It really will be interesting going back to look at week three and seeing which of those games hurts the most, but for now that remains a mystery. Their next game is on the road at Austin, so I don’t expect that one to have much of an impact on their chances, but every win does matter. Following that, they take on Chicago and Philadelphia. Those two could be huge for them. You hate to have do or die games in the first half of the season, but you can’t fall to 1-5 in the division and expect to have a realistic chance at the playoffs, so they probably need to win both of those to keep their hopes alive.
Next up is a tie, but we will focus first on the Baltimore Hawks. Given everything that culminated with the loss of Chunt the Badger to NYS, I was a little surprised to see Baltimore’s playoff odds and average finishing positions imrpvoing. But they did. Their finishing position and playoff odds have improved after every single week. They started the season with an average finishing place of 5.3 and a playoff appearance rate of 13.3%. Now, their average finishing position is 4.7 and they appeared in the playoffs in 26.7% of my sims. After week four, they finished as high as second in the conference, but they also managed to drop as low as last place. Their most common finishing place was fourth. Baltimore finds themselves at 2-2, but they are 2-1 in the conference with wins over Yellowknife and Berlin. Their blowout loss to Philadelphia probably slowed their rise, but the team is still continuing to edge up in the standings. Their next three games are against Chicago, Sarasota, and at Colorado. I think coming out of those games with a win or two would go a long way. All three teams have a better playoff chance as things stand right now than the Hawks, so even stealing one win could be huge in helping them sneak into the top three. Losing all three probably doesn’t hurt their chances too much, but it certainly wouldn’t help. Realistically, though, I am not sure I see the Hawks managing to win more than one, and Chicago seems like the most likely spot to steal a game. That is certainly a matchup to watch in week five.
Tied with Baltimore at a playoff appearance rate of 26.7% are the Philadelphia Liberty. Philadelphia is yet another team that sits at 2-2 in the early season and they have a winning record within the conference. The Liberty are coming off a loss to Yellowknife in week 3 and a win against Baltimore in week 4. The loss to Yellowknife looks, at this early stage, nearly catastrophic for the Liberty. But, they managed to stem the bleeding by picking up a win against Baltimore in week four. Philadelphia’s playoff appearance rate has never been lower than it is right now. After week one, they were at 40%. After week two, it was all the way up to 46.7, which is nearly a 50/50. Now, it is just better than one in four. Their average finishing position has also fallen to a new season low for them at 4.4. They finished as high as first in the conference and as low as seventh. They still seem like a massive wild card for this season with appearances throughout the entire table. They finished in fifth most frequently, which I’m sure will be disappointing for them given that they’ve been hovering around 3 and 4 in the first few weeks of the season. Yet there still has to be hope. The Liberty have three huge games coming up on the road against Sarasota and Colorado before returning home to take on Berlin. Sarasota and Colorado (spoiler alert) have been the clear favorites to win the conference, so a win against either of them would be huge and could go a long way in playing spoiler for someone. Losing to both wouldn’t be a surprise though, and probably wouldn’t hurt Philly’s chances too much as Philly’s finishes towards the top of the conference have been rare. Losing to Berlin would be a tough pill to swallow, but a win there probably doesn’t do too much for their chances as they are already ahead at this point in the season. But who knows how things will look by the time we are in week 7.
Next up are the Chicago Butchers, who have been flying up through the rankings since the start of the season. The Butchers started the season with an average finishing position of 4.8 and a playoff appearance rate of 13.3%. Now, they are looking at an average finishing place of 4.1 and made the playoffs in 46.7% of my recent sims. Making the playoffs nearly half the time is a huge win considering where the Butchers started, and they are now looking like the team to beat if you want the coveted three-seed in the playoffs this season, despite still being in the mix of teams that are 2-2 in the NSFC. The Butchers won on the road in Honolulu in week three before returning home and taking a beating from Sarasota, which left the Butchers with a losing record in the division, however both of those losses are at the hands of teams who will likely be the one and two seed when the regular season finally comes to a close. The Butchers have a string of winnable games coming up as they travel to Baltimore and Berlin before taking on Yellowknife at home. That will be a really interesting string of games for them and those three games could go a long way in determining who will end up with that final playoff spot. The Butchers finished third more than any other position. They placed as high as second, but as poorly as sixth. There is still a lot of time for them to cement their position or find a way to give it up.
The second most likely team to land in the playoffs are the Colorado Yeti. Despite sitting atop the conference at 3-1 and coming off a huge win against Sarasota and a nice second win on the road against Orange County, the Yeti “only” make the playoffs in 87% of my sims. There is still a lot of wiggle room in the conference. The Yeti have placed their hopes entire on Caliban and it seems like sometimes the sim just decides he’s going to have another rough season down the stretch. But for now, the Yeti find themselves 2-1 in the division with wins against Sarasota and Berlin and one black spot against Chicago. The Yeti finished most frequently in first, and as mentioned earlier, are in the playoffs in almost 90% of my sims. The Yeti’s lowest finish on the season was a depressive fifth place, and at least on one occasion I noticed we missed the playoffs with a 9-7 record. It could very well take 10 or more wins to secure a playoff spot in the NSFC, which seems poised to have some late season chaos. The Yeti have a stretch of games that all seem very winnable. We take on Yellowknife, Philly, and Baltimore next irl week. A loss in any of those probably sends the Yeti’s chances tumbling a little bit as it opens the door even wider for more chaos. You can’t sleep on any of those teams, though. At least two of them are very much still in the picture. I believe the Yeti still have to be the favorites at this point in the season thanks to that huge win against Sarasota, but there is still a lot of time for things to go wrong and the sim has a lot of variability built into this conference, so nothing can be certain.
The team most likely to make the playoffs are the Sarasota Sailfish, who found themselves sin the postseason in 93% of my sims. The Sailfish averaged a final placement of 1.9, finished most frequently in second, and finished no worse than fourth place. They are a very strong team that is looking to make a splash in this season’s race for the championship. They suffered a stinging loss at home against Colorado in week four, but bounced back with a huge win against Chicago. Their next games see them taking on Philadelphia and Baltimore, which I expect will be wins for the Sailfish. But, next irl Friday, they take on Arizona from the ASFC. Because it is out of conference, I doubt it impacts their playoff chances too much, but it is a nice taste of what a playoff game will likely be like and could even be a likely preview of the final game of the season. The Sailfish have the second best average finishing position and the best playoff appearance rate in the NSFC. While there is still some doubt, they will probably end up in the postseason and have a good shot at finding themselves in the #1 seed.
NSFC:
1. Sarasota – in playoffs 93% of the time
2. Colorado – in playoffs 87% of the time
3. Chicago – in playoffs 47% of the time
T4. Baltimore and Philadelphia – in playoffs 27% of the time.
6. Berlin – in playoffs 20% of the time
7. Yellowknife – in playoffs 0% of the time.
I have a few closing thoughts. The conference seems primed for chaos. Even Sarasota and Colorado, who are the obvious favorites to take the top seeds, still have small chances of missing the playoffs entirely. While Chicago looks best for the three seed, all three of Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Berlin are in a decent position to make a run should Chicago falter. And I wouldn’t count Yellowknife out entirely yet. They could still play spoiler and work themselves back into things, even if it seems unlikely right now. There is a lot of possibility for mayhem left in the season. We are, after all, only a quarter of the way through. That said, I expect one of the Yeti or Sailfish to take the one seed and both should make the playoffs, barring an epic collapse.
Now, we move on to the ASFC!
This week’s least likely team to make a playoff appearance in the ASFC is a tie, but we will start with New Orleans. The SecondLine had a 0% chance of making the playoffs after week 2 and that has not changed. Their average finishing position increased slightly from 6.5 to 6.3, but that could be due to the small sample size. The SecondLine are coming in at 2-2 and are 1-2 in their conference. They lost to New York before turning around and beating San Jose in week 4. The win against San Jose, though, probably does not help their cause very much as San Jose is the other team who failed to make the playoffs in my sims. In the next week, New Orleans will face off against Arizona, Orange County, and Austin. The games against Arizona and Austin will be very tough and I am not sure that knocking one of them down a notch would really help NOLA’s case, although doing so early in the season is a good time to do it as the teams are still all pretty tightly packed together. The game against Orange County is certainly winnable, though. Picking up a win there might boost their chances a little bit, as OCO has a playoff appearance rate greater than zero.
San Jose is sitting at 1-3, has not won a division game, and is coming off a bad loss to Austin and a close loss to Austin. They are the second ASFC team that failed to make a playoff appearance in my sims. The SaberCats didn’t have the greatest playoff chances to begin with, coming in at 26.7% after their week one win against Baltimore. Losing to New York in week two cut their chances in half. Losing to Austin and, more importantly, New Orleans, completely killed off those chances. With the ASFC also having a pretty tight race for that third and final spot in the playoffs, losing to a team in the mix really hurts your chances. The Sabercats had an average finishing position of 5.7 (down from 4.9 after week 2) and their playoff chances dropped from 13.3 to nada. Next up, the SaberCats take on Honolulu, Arizona, and Orange County. The Arizona game you can probably write off, but anything is possible. The games against Honolulu and Orange County are probably the best chances San Jose will have at getting themselves back into the thick of the playoff race. It is still early in the season, so winning those games gives them huge wins over conference opponents and puts them back in a position to capitalize if other teams falter.
Next up we have ANOTHER TIE. This one is between Orange County and Honolulu and we will start with Orange County because I think their situation is interesting. The Otters started the season with an average finishing position of 5.9. Despite losing in week two, they improved their average finishing position to 5.1, but their playoff odds stayed the same at a slight 6.7% appearance rate. Then, in week three, they did something truly special and upset Arizona before losing to the Yeti in week four. Their finishing position rose again to 4.7. And yet their playoff odds are exactly the same at 6.7%. their odds have not changed at all since I’ve been doing these tests, which is pretty fascinating to me. I suspect some of it may be having a smaller sample size, but that means through three weeks of testing they have made the playoffs at exactly the same rate across all three pools of tests, which is pretty neat I think. The Otters take on New York, New Orleans, and San Jose in their next three games. New York has been the team looking best positioned to take the three seed recently while NOLA and San Jose have struggled. I am really not sure how these next three games will impact their future, regardless of wins or losses. Obviously New York is favored over OCO and the other two are not, but unless OCO somehow wins all three I am not sure I see a big change in their future. But by this time next week we will know for sure.
Honolulu’s playoff appearance rate has dropped to 6.7% after holding steady at 20% following weeks one and two. The Hahalua got off to a good start by securing wins against New Orleans and Orange County, but lost both games in the double sim on Friday to Chicago and Arizona. I am not entirely sure the losses had as much of an impact on their playoff chances as New York winning both games did. Losing to a team who is expected to finish in the top two should not make too much of a difference unless you are the other team competing for a top two spot. Honolulu was not in the mix for the top two during my tests, so I don’t think the Arizona game mattered too much. The loss to Chicago was out of conference, so unless any loss mattered that much I am not too sure how much of an impact that might have had, but I doubt it was significant. The Hahalua still have a winning record in the playoffs, but their odds of making an appearance just are not impressive at this point in the season.
Next up are the New York Silverbacks, who have increased their appearance rate from 46.7% in week one to 73.3% in week two, and finally to 86.7% after week four. New York is on a three game winning streak after losing to the Outlaws in week one and their playoff appearance results are looking better and better as a result. The Silverbacks are coming off wins against New Orleans and Austin in the double sim Friday. New York has been in the best position to claim the three seed since week two, but their recent string of wins has only further cemented their chances. New York looks like a playoff team so far this season, and while there are certainly situations in which they miss the postseason, the chances are getting better and better for them. With their most recent wins, their average finishing position rises from 3.3 after week two to 2.8 after week four. They finished most frequently in third and were never worse than fifth. In at least one sim, they managed to hold onto the top seed, where they currently sit, and earned the first week bye. They certainly seem poised to be in the playoffs and maybe even for a top seed. New York is off to a strong start. Their next three games will pit them against Orange County, Yellowknife, and Honolulu. All three of those games strike me as being very winnable for them.
Next up is ANOTHER tie between Arizona and Austin. Both of these teams made the playoffs in every single one of my sims this week. Arizona has an edge in average finishing position (1.4 vs Austin’s 2.0), but both teams finished at the very top of the conference more than anywhere else. Arizona’s finishing position is back up to where it was after week one. That surprises me a bit, but I suspect they had a lot of help from New York, who managed to steal a win from the Copperheads in week four. It is important to remember, I think, that Austin has a win in hand over Arizona after beating them 23-20 in week two and dropping Arizona’s playoff chances to a still very impressive 93.3%. But Arizona got a lucky break and is right back into competition for the one seed, despite dropping a surprising loss against Orange County. Austin had the edge in average finishing position and a tie in playoff appearance rate after they managed to beat Arizona in week two, but New York had other ideas and pulled off an impressive win in week four. I’ll stop mentioning that now. That game gives Arizona an edge in the sims again, even though Austin currently has a game in hand against the Outlaws. Things are still early, though, so there is plenty of time for chaos. I do think one of these two teams will be at the top of the standings, although if New York can manage to keep winning games I think they have a good chance at making the race for the 1 seed more interesting than it seemed earlier in the season. It will be really interesting to see the order of this top three, but it really looks like the top three is already set, even though we are a quarter of the way into the season. It is still to early to say for sure, though, so don’t tune out just yet.
ASFC:
T1. Arizona & Austin – made playoffs 100% of the time
3. New York – made playoffs 87% of the time
T4. Orange County & Honolulu – made playoffs 6.7% of the time
T6. New Orleans and San Jose – made playoffs 0% of the time.
While there are a lot of ties and interesting things going on in the ASFC, the playoff picture already looks surprisingly set. Yes, New York isn’t a lock and yes, things can happen that will change the balance. It is entirely possible that someone goes on a run in the near future and shakes things up and I really hope that happens. I don’t really want to write about the same teams being more and more locked into the playoff picture, although if that is going to happen I hope that New York can at least keep winning and make the race for the one seed more and more interesting as things go on. A three team race is more fun than a two team race, after all. I wouldn’t be bothered if one of the other four teams decided to start winning some upsets to make things more interesting either. Give us some drama, ASFC!
Thank you all for the positive response in the last edition of this one. I really am happy that some people are enjoying these little articles and they’ve been surprisingly fun to produce. I hoe this one is equally enjoyable and that you continue to be interested in the updates. It’s more fun to write these for people who enjoy them than it is just to inflate my fake bank account. Thanks, all! Have a great week.