12-21-2021, 09:36 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-21-2021, 02:07 PM by Asked Madden. Edited 3 times in total.)
Hello and welcome to my S32 Fantasy Summary. In this article I will be re-visiting my pre-season rankings (spoiler alert, they weren't great) and examining S32 performance in the ISFL from a fantasy perspective. In my S31 recap I was able to examine some ADP data, as well as pre-season rankings from Pat and Kotasa; for S32 I have none of those things so I will really just be looking back at my rankings, my own group's draft, and the final leaderboards.
So my first crack at doing fantasy rankings for the ISFL didn't go so well, but I will definitely be inhaling some copium along the way and making excuses for myself where I was wrong. And those excuses start now. The first thing I want to point out is that the schedule to start the fantasy drafts for S32 was accelerated at the last minute and I was expecting to have a weekend to sit down and make my rankings, instead I sat down at my computer one Friday and realized that the fantasy drafts were starting immediately so I rushed to get some rankings out as quickly as possible. Secondly, along those same lines, the fantasy drafts and therefore my rankings were put out before ISFL rosters had solidified entirely. We were still pre-real ISFL draft and we hadn't seen the results of regression yet. The draft wasn't taht big of a deal, but I did make some serious miscalculations regarding regression which I will point out later. Enough of the excuses (for now), let's look at some players and numbers shall we?
Quarterbacks:
Rankings:
Tier 1: Ryan Negs, Mattathias Caliban
Tier 2: Joliet Christ Jr., Dexter Zaylren, Jackie Daytona, Gimmy Jaroppolo, Charlemagne Cortez
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Mattathias Caliban - 318
Tier 2: Panda McKyle - 290, Sam Howitzer - 281
Tier 3: Dexter Zaylren - 267, Joliet Christ Jr - 262, Ryan Negs - 261, Mike Boss Jr - 255, Jackie Daytona - 254, Gimmy Jaroppolo - 253
Analysis:
Good news is I didn't really have any misses here, but Caliban was a big hit. Volume really is the king of fantasy football, both in real life and in the ISFL and Caliban was the volume king of S32. Colorado threw the ball 750 times this season while no other team reached 700 attempts and only 2 other teams had 650+ attempts. This led to Caliban leading the league in yards and touchdowns despite moderate efficiency (6th best passer rating, 11th best completion percentage). Tier 2 was made up of a couple of surprises (at least to my rankings) in McKyle and Howitzer. San Jose just came out slinging it this season with the 3rd most pass attempts and 2nd most passing yards, McKyle could've challenged Caliban for the top spot on the leaderboard if he had been able to find the end zone a little bit more as McKyle finished 8th in passing TDs. Howitzer led NYS to a great season, also on a pretty high passing volume (4th most attempts, 3rd most yards, t-4th touchdowns). Tier 3 was pretty clumped together in terms of the players' fantasy finishes. I missed a little bit on Ryan Negs as I put him in tier 1, but he finished middle of the pack and solidly in tier 3, but he didn't sink your team if you drafted him.
Running Backs:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Cobra Kai
Tier 2: Goat Tank, Jay Cue Jr., Deadly Memes
Tier 3: Jamar Lackson, Drip Dad, Madison Hayes, Busch Goose, Dante King, Tatsu Nakamura, Mike Rotchburns
Tier 4: Zoe Watts, Jim the Vampire, Lonnie Jackson, Captain Rogers, Tre'Darius J'Vathon, Rejoignez LOrdreSombre
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Zoe Watts - 309
Tier 2: Goat Tank - 290, Deadly Memes - 284, John Huntsman - 282
Tier 3: Zach DiNozzo - 258, Cobra Kai - 254, Jim the Vampire - 236, Jamar Lackson - 236, Dante King - 232, Mike Rotchburns - 230, Tatsu Nakamura - 223
Tier 4: Lonnie Jackson - 213, Jay Cue Jr. - 211, Captain Rogers - 189, Busch Goose - 178, Madison Hayes - 175
Hmm...these sucked. *inhales copium* So a lot happened here that I didn't see coming when I put out my rankings. First of all, I expected a near split in volume between Zoe Watts and Jim the Vampire since Watts was hitting a little bit of regression and Jim is nearing his peak. Well the Austin Copperheads threw me a curveball by making Zoe Watts the bellcow and playing Jim the Vampire a ton at wide receiver. Watts had the 3rd most rush attempts in the league on a 5.0 YPC which was the highest among anyone with 150+ attempts. On top of that Watts was among the top 10 RBs in terms of receiving production. I'm not sure if there were headlights that I missed in terms of Austin's usage of their RBs, but I need to figure out if there were. Next up, the disaster I made with Sarasota's backfield. I anticipated a backfield split similar to what they saw in S31 which was more of a 50/50 split between J'Vathon and Huntsman, instead Huntsman took over and put up a tier 2 season. This was a regression TPE miscalculation on my part as Huntsman ended up with 200+ more TPE than J'Vathon to start the season. Hopefully future fantasy drafts can occur after regressions have been calculated, but if not I will definitely spend more time calculating what TPE will look like before putting out rankings. Next up, DiNozzo, but this one is easy. Following the trade of Goat Tank to Berlin from OCO, DiNozzo position swapped from TE to RB, but this was after I put my rankings out and I didn't feel like going back in and updating a million times for all of the moves. Some people were panicking after Goat Tank moved to Berlin, but I didn't drop him much in my rankings and he paid off for the people that drafted him early. Cobra Kai had a slight down season as did most of the HON offense, at least compared to what I was expected. Jay Cue Jr. and YKW as a whole were hit pretty hard by their QB change, but look for the rest of YKW to slowly get better in the next couple of seasons. Madison Hayes was a big bust for me, but I believe they went might've went somewhat IA and their volume got taken over LordreSombre. Memes and Nakamura were both pretty darn good for Arizona. It was a bloodbath here, hopefully I do better in S33.
Wide Receivers:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Eleven Kendrick-Watts, Raphael Delacour, Jake Fencik, Mark Walker, Cmon Skiuuup
Tier 2: Luke Quick, Jackson Kingston, Zach Crossley, Tugg Speedman
Tier 3: Killian Chambers, Darren Pama, Bayley Cowabunga, Tsuyu Asui, Cole Maxwell, Taro Raimon
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Tugg Speedman - 256
Tier 2: Jake Fencik - 233, Jackson Kingston - 223, Bayley Cowabunga - 216, Raphael Delacour - 214, Cole Maxwell - 213
Tier 3: Luke Quick - 199, Taro Raimon - 197, Tsuyu Asui - 196, Cmon Skiuuup - 192, Zach Crossley - 195, Eleven Kendrick-Watts - 183, Kai Sakura - 182, Joseph Radetzky - 179
Not too bad here, definitely not as bad as RB, but not as good as QB. A couple of glaring misses at the top in EKW and Mark Walker. EKW is the Keenan Allen of the ISFL, volume monster but just didn't find the end zone much (4th in catches, 6th in yards, T-23rd in TDs); if he didn't have the worst TD rate in the league he would've been a hit in fantasy this season. The other miss being Mark Walker, as I mentioned in the RB section, YKW was hit pretty hard by a QB change leaving Mark Walker out to dry following his absolute monster S31 season. Outside of those 2 players, my top couple of tiers were pretty on point. Delacour and Fencik ended up in tier 2 (Fencik the WR2 overall) from my tier 1 ranking and Cmon Skiuuup was a top 10 WR following my tier 1 ranking. My tier 2 was even better since it included Speedman and Kingston, both top 3 WRs in fantasy for S32 as well as Luke Quick and Zach Crossley who had solid tier 3 finishes. My tier 3 rankings were a little bit more all over the place with a few players who didn't make the tier lists postseason like Killian Chambers and Darren Pama, but they also included the surprise of the season in Bayley Cowabunga who filled Videl-San's shoes in Austin pretty valiantly as well as Cole Maxwell who ended up as the WR6 on the season. Not too many takeaways here I don't think outside of how QB play and volume really drives the WR volume (QB1 Caliban supporting 3 top 10 WRs, QB3 Howitzer supporting the WR1 and WR14, as well as the down seasons for WRs in AZ and YKW).
Tight Ends:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Mario Messi, Sal Ami, Makoa Mahi'ai
Tier 2: Borgo San Lorenzo, Buffalo Hunter, Adam Spencer, Nick L. Back
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Borgo San Lorenzo - 143
Tier 2: Mario Messi - 112, Adam Spencer - 109
Tier 3: Buffalo Hunter - 87, Nick L. Back - 82, James Wilkinson - 81, Ragnar Krashwagen - 75
Sadly my biggest miss was the TE I drafted in Sal Ami who's season was brought down by a pretty low yards per catch number and wasn't redeemed by TDs as he only had 2. The other big miss was Makoa Mahi'ai, but I give myself a pass for this one since Baltimore drafted another tight end in Lenard Graf with the #1 overall pick in the S32 draft. The other 5 tight ends I ranked in my 2 tiers ended up as the top 5 tight ends in fantasy, so that's a win I guess. The best tight end in fantasy was Borgo San Lorenzo who had the 2nd most catches on Philly this season, 2nd most yards and a whopping 8 touchdowns. I was expecting Philly to utilize their top 2 WRs more and leaving Borgo as more of a 3rd option, but that wasn't the case and he cashed in on the opportunity. Messi thrived in Sarasota after the retirement of his teammate James Angler.
Kickers:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Jacob Small, Lux Opal, Cade York
Tier 2: Sam Sidekick, Jean-Jacques Leroy, Freddy Bly
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Ikick Ballz - 171
Tier 2: Cade York - 156, Blago Kokot - 148
Tier 3: Campbell - 141, Jean-Jacques Leroy - 138, Galarraga - 134, Rose - 128, Jacob Small - 128, Freddy Bly - 125
Ikick Ballz put up a monster season for Philly who put up the 4th most points in the ISFL. Ballz was T-5th in the league for extra point attempts and 2nd in the league in field goal attempts. Not only did Ballz have the volume, he had the accuracy too; he didn't miss a single extra point and made 85% of his field goals including going 6/7 from 50+. Arizona had a pretty good season offensively leading York to the 4th most extra point attempts and 3rd most field goal attempts. Kokot made his money on field goal attempts as YKW lead the league in that category while being moderately accurate. Fantasy kicking is all about volume and preferably field goal volume over extra point volume and the kickers I picked in tier 1 outside of York just didn't have the field goal volume. Small and Opal were in the bottom half of the league in field goal attempts but had decent extra point attempt volume.
Defense:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Philadelphia Liberty, Sarasota Sailfish, Berlin Fire Salamanders
Tier 2: Chicago Butchers, Austin Copperheads, Colorado Yeti
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Philadelphia Libery - 261, Arizona Outlaws - 245
Tier 2: Orange County Otters - 227, Honolulu Hahalua - 220, New York Silverbacks - 208
Well I nailed the Philly pick at least. In my defense 4 of the 6 teams I picked were in the top half of the league in sacks, which is usually a good predictor for fantasy finish as it's the most consistent defensive stat. The problem is all of those teams except for Philly were relatively low in the turnover department which made them worse for fantasy. To this point I've just been judging fantasy defense expectations based on CB/LB TPE as predictors of sacks and picks, I should probably put some more time into trying to figure out good predictors of defense fantasy points.
Offensive Line:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Alexander Franklin, Stumpy Jones, Cade Williams
Tier 2: Icebox Riposte, Jaja Ding Dong, Emperor de Pengu
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Ananda Adyan - 268, Bruce Buckley - 256, Icebox Riposte - 243
Tier 2: Stumpy Jones - 222, Alexander Franklin - 215, Jaja Ding Dong - 202, Marc Hamel - 202, Felix Archstone - 200
4 out of my top 6 ended up in the top 6, that can't be too bad. I missed on Cade Williams and Emperor de Pengu, can't remember why I ranked them so I'm really not sure why I missed.
Well I had some pretty terrible positions for these rankings and some pretty good positions and also some meh positions. If you followed my rankings to a T then you probably didn't do too great in your group, just like me, but here's to a better result in S33.
So my first crack at doing fantasy rankings for the ISFL didn't go so well, but I will definitely be inhaling some copium along the way and making excuses for myself where I was wrong. And those excuses start now. The first thing I want to point out is that the schedule to start the fantasy drafts for S32 was accelerated at the last minute and I was expecting to have a weekend to sit down and make my rankings, instead I sat down at my computer one Friday and realized that the fantasy drafts were starting immediately so I rushed to get some rankings out as quickly as possible. Secondly, along those same lines, the fantasy drafts and therefore my rankings were put out before ISFL rosters had solidified entirely. We were still pre-real ISFL draft and we hadn't seen the results of regression yet. The draft wasn't taht big of a deal, but I did make some serious miscalculations regarding regression which I will point out later. Enough of the excuses (for now), let's look at some players and numbers shall we?
Quarterbacks:
Rankings:
Tier 1: Ryan Negs, Mattathias Caliban
Tier 2: Joliet Christ Jr., Dexter Zaylren, Jackie Daytona, Gimmy Jaroppolo, Charlemagne Cortez
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Mattathias Caliban - 318
Tier 2: Panda McKyle - 290, Sam Howitzer - 281
Tier 3: Dexter Zaylren - 267, Joliet Christ Jr - 262, Ryan Negs - 261, Mike Boss Jr - 255, Jackie Daytona - 254, Gimmy Jaroppolo - 253
Analysis:
Good news is I didn't really have any misses here, but Caliban was a big hit. Volume really is the king of fantasy football, both in real life and in the ISFL and Caliban was the volume king of S32. Colorado threw the ball 750 times this season while no other team reached 700 attempts and only 2 other teams had 650+ attempts. This led to Caliban leading the league in yards and touchdowns despite moderate efficiency (6th best passer rating, 11th best completion percentage). Tier 2 was made up of a couple of surprises (at least to my rankings) in McKyle and Howitzer. San Jose just came out slinging it this season with the 3rd most pass attempts and 2nd most passing yards, McKyle could've challenged Caliban for the top spot on the leaderboard if he had been able to find the end zone a little bit more as McKyle finished 8th in passing TDs. Howitzer led NYS to a great season, also on a pretty high passing volume (4th most attempts, 3rd most yards, t-4th touchdowns). Tier 3 was pretty clumped together in terms of the players' fantasy finishes. I missed a little bit on Ryan Negs as I put him in tier 1, but he finished middle of the pack and solidly in tier 3, but he didn't sink your team if you drafted him.
Running Backs:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Cobra Kai
Tier 2: Goat Tank, Jay Cue Jr., Deadly Memes
Tier 3: Jamar Lackson, Drip Dad, Madison Hayes, Busch Goose, Dante King, Tatsu Nakamura, Mike Rotchburns
Tier 4: Zoe Watts, Jim the Vampire, Lonnie Jackson, Captain Rogers, Tre'Darius J'Vathon, Rejoignez LOrdreSombre
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Zoe Watts - 309
Tier 2: Goat Tank - 290, Deadly Memes - 284, John Huntsman - 282
Tier 3: Zach DiNozzo - 258, Cobra Kai - 254, Jim the Vampire - 236, Jamar Lackson - 236, Dante King - 232, Mike Rotchburns - 230, Tatsu Nakamura - 223
Tier 4: Lonnie Jackson - 213, Jay Cue Jr. - 211, Captain Rogers - 189, Busch Goose - 178, Madison Hayes - 175
Hmm...these sucked. *inhales copium* So a lot happened here that I didn't see coming when I put out my rankings. First of all, I expected a near split in volume between Zoe Watts and Jim the Vampire since Watts was hitting a little bit of regression and Jim is nearing his peak. Well the Austin Copperheads threw me a curveball by making Zoe Watts the bellcow and playing Jim the Vampire a ton at wide receiver. Watts had the 3rd most rush attempts in the league on a 5.0 YPC which was the highest among anyone with 150+ attempts. On top of that Watts was among the top 10 RBs in terms of receiving production. I'm not sure if there were headlights that I missed in terms of Austin's usage of their RBs, but I need to figure out if there were. Next up, the disaster I made with Sarasota's backfield. I anticipated a backfield split similar to what they saw in S31 which was more of a 50/50 split between J'Vathon and Huntsman, instead Huntsman took over and put up a tier 2 season. This was a regression TPE miscalculation on my part as Huntsman ended up with 200+ more TPE than J'Vathon to start the season. Hopefully future fantasy drafts can occur after regressions have been calculated, but if not I will definitely spend more time calculating what TPE will look like before putting out rankings. Next up, DiNozzo, but this one is easy. Following the trade of Goat Tank to Berlin from OCO, DiNozzo position swapped from TE to RB, but this was after I put my rankings out and I didn't feel like going back in and updating a million times for all of the moves. Some people were panicking after Goat Tank moved to Berlin, but I didn't drop him much in my rankings and he paid off for the people that drafted him early. Cobra Kai had a slight down season as did most of the HON offense, at least compared to what I was expected. Jay Cue Jr. and YKW as a whole were hit pretty hard by their QB change, but look for the rest of YKW to slowly get better in the next couple of seasons. Madison Hayes was a big bust for me, but I believe they went might've went somewhat IA and their volume got taken over LordreSombre. Memes and Nakamura were both pretty darn good for Arizona. It was a bloodbath here, hopefully I do better in S33.
Wide Receivers:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Eleven Kendrick-Watts, Raphael Delacour, Jake Fencik, Mark Walker, Cmon Skiuuup
Tier 2: Luke Quick, Jackson Kingston, Zach Crossley, Tugg Speedman
Tier 3: Killian Chambers, Darren Pama, Bayley Cowabunga, Tsuyu Asui, Cole Maxwell, Taro Raimon
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Tugg Speedman - 256
Tier 2: Jake Fencik - 233, Jackson Kingston - 223, Bayley Cowabunga - 216, Raphael Delacour - 214, Cole Maxwell - 213
Tier 3: Luke Quick - 199, Taro Raimon - 197, Tsuyu Asui - 196, Cmon Skiuuup - 192, Zach Crossley - 195, Eleven Kendrick-Watts - 183, Kai Sakura - 182, Joseph Radetzky - 179
Not too bad here, definitely not as bad as RB, but not as good as QB. A couple of glaring misses at the top in EKW and Mark Walker. EKW is the Keenan Allen of the ISFL, volume monster but just didn't find the end zone much (4th in catches, 6th in yards, T-23rd in TDs); if he didn't have the worst TD rate in the league he would've been a hit in fantasy this season. The other miss being Mark Walker, as I mentioned in the RB section, YKW was hit pretty hard by a QB change leaving Mark Walker out to dry following his absolute monster S31 season. Outside of those 2 players, my top couple of tiers were pretty on point. Delacour and Fencik ended up in tier 2 (Fencik the WR2 overall) from my tier 1 ranking and Cmon Skiuuup was a top 10 WR following my tier 1 ranking. My tier 2 was even better since it included Speedman and Kingston, both top 3 WRs in fantasy for S32 as well as Luke Quick and Zach Crossley who had solid tier 3 finishes. My tier 3 rankings were a little bit more all over the place with a few players who didn't make the tier lists postseason like Killian Chambers and Darren Pama, but they also included the surprise of the season in Bayley Cowabunga who filled Videl-San's shoes in Austin pretty valiantly as well as Cole Maxwell who ended up as the WR6 on the season. Not too many takeaways here I don't think outside of how QB play and volume really drives the WR volume (QB1 Caliban supporting 3 top 10 WRs, QB3 Howitzer supporting the WR1 and WR14, as well as the down seasons for WRs in AZ and YKW).
Tight Ends:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Mario Messi, Sal Ami, Makoa Mahi'ai
Tier 2: Borgo San Lorenzo, Buffalo Hunter, Adam Spencer, Nick L. Back
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Borgo San Lorenzo - 143
Tier 2: Mario Messi - 112, Adam Spencer - 109
Tier 3: Buffalo Hunter - 87, Nick L. Back - 82, James Wilkinson - 81, Ragnar Krashwagen - 75
Sadly my biggest miss was the TE I drafted in Sal Ami who's season was brought down by a pretty low yards per catch number and wasn't redeemed by TDs as he only had 2. The other big miss was Makoa Mahi'ai, but I give myself a pass for this one since Baltimore drafted another tight end in Lenard Graf with the #1 overall pick in the S32 draft. The other 5 tight ends I ranked in my 2 tiers ended up as the top 5 tight ends in fantasy, so that's a win I guess. The best tight end in fantasy was Borgo San Lorenzo who had the 2nd most catches on Philly this season, 2nd most yards and a whopping 8 touchdowns. I was expecting Philly to utilize their top 2 WRs more and leaving Borgo as more of a 3rd option, but that wasn't the case and he cashed in on the opportunity. Messi thrived in Sarasota after the retirement of his teammate James Angler.
Kickers:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Jacob Small, Lux Opal, Cade York
Tier 2: Sam Sidekick, Jean-Jacques Leroy, Freddy Bly
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Ikick Ballz - 171
Tier 2: Cade York - 156, Blago Kokot - 148
Tier 3: Campbell - 141, Jean-Jacques Leroy - 138, Galarraga - 134, Rose - 128, Jacob Small - 128, Freddy Bly - 125
Ikick Ballz put up a monster season for Philly who put up the 4th most points in the ISFL. Ballz was T-5th in the league for extra point attempts and 2nd in the league in field goal attempts. Not only did Ballz have the volume, he had the accuracy too; he didn't miss a single extra point and made 85% of his field goals including going 6/7 from 50+. Arizona had a pretty good season offensively leading York to the 4th most extra point attempts and 3rd most field goal attempts. Kokot made his money on field goal attempts as YKW lead the league in that category while being moderately accurate. Fantasy kicking is all about volume and preferably field goal volume over extra point volume and the kickers I picked in tier 1 outside of York just didn't have the field goal volume. Small and Opal were in the bottom half of the league in field goal attempts but had decent extra point attempt volume.
Defense:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Philadelphia Liberty, Sarasota Sailfish, Berlin Fire Salamanders
Tier 2: Chicago Butchers, Austin Copperheads, Colorado Yeti
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Philadelphia Libery - 261, Arizona Outlaws - 245
Tier 2: Orange County Otters - 227, Honolulu Hahalua - 220, New York Silverbacks - 208
Well I nailed the Philly pick at least. In my defense 4 of the 6 teams I picked were in the top half of the league in sacks, which is usually a good predictor for fantasy finish as it's the most consistent defensive stat. The problem is all of those teams except for Philly were relatively low in the turnover department which made them worse for fantasy. To this point I've just been judging fantasy defense expectations based on CB/LB TPE as predictors of sacks and picks, I should probably put some more time into trying to figure out good predictors of defense fantasy points.
Offensive Line:
My Rankings:
Tier 1: Alexander Franklin, Stumpy Jones, Cade Williams
Tier 2: Icebox Riposte, Jaja Ding Dong, Emperor de Pengu
Post Week 16 Leaderboard:
Tier 1: Ananda Adyan - 268, Bruce Buckley - 256, Icebox Riposte - 243
Tier 2: Stumpy Jones - 222, Alexander Franklin - 215, Jaja Ding Dong - 202, Marc Hamel - 202, Felix Archstone - 200
4 out of my top 6 ended up in the top 6, that can't be too bad. I missed on Cade Williams and Emperor de Pengu, can't remember why I ranked them so I'm really not sure why I missed.
Well I had some pretty terrible positions for these rankings and some pretty good positions and also some meh positions. If you followed my rankings to a T then you probably didn't do too great in your group, just like me, but here's to a better result in S33.