02-17-2022, 11:06 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-21-2022, 08:00 PM by Crunk. Edited 1 time in total.)
Going into the S34 draft, what needs do ISFL teams have? I like to know that as background for trying to do mock drafts. A great mock draft takes into account the accounts behind the players and not just the positions vs. team needs, but teams do need to field a legal team at the end of the day. I'm looking over teams' current rosters, relevant DSFL players, and some notes on contract statuses to try and figure out where they'll be looking in the draft as they set up for S34 and beyond. This covers just the ASFC teams but I'm going to try to get to the NSFC teams this weekend. No promises though because I ran out of whiskey during the deep perusal of the team budget spreadsheet and it's hard to do this sober.
One minor note: I'm ignoring GMs when it comes to analysis of both team needs and the draft class itself here. GM picks are always a big factor in understanding actual mocks, but I think the overall look at needs can ignore that. GM picks help ensure a team can hit its needs (presuming that the GMs foresaw what the needs would be correctly) so there's no distortion there, whereas the pick guarantees change priorities in the ordering of the draft picks more than the overall positional desires, in my opinion.
Arizona Outlaws
S33 record: 12-4 (1st), 485 points scored / 381 points allowed
The Outlaws will finally see RB Deadly Memes retiring after years of fantasy experts trying to figure out the carry split between Memes and Jay Cue Jr. Other than that and the potential loss of S25 OL Brent Silva, Arizona is in decent shape looking forward to S34. For S35 and beyond, however, nearly their entire offense is not signed. With nine S25 or older players not yet retired, the Outlaws have a clear concern of figuring out what kind of team they're going to be in S35 and beyond. Will they try to keep up their ASFC dominance of the last few years? Or will that catch up to them and require a rebuild? I don't know, but I do know that the retirement plans of their secondary are going to be important. They do have a pretty respectable set of DSFL players which could help continue the dominance plans even if retirement starts impacting the vets.
Needs entering the draft as of Feb 16: With two S23 safeties and two S25 CBs, the secondary seems like an area of huge importance. The WR pair of S34 Raimon and S25 Pama could support dropping a pick there too, but since they have the S32 receiver pair of TE Kirkby and WR Sam I expect a try for a CB.
Austin Copperheads
S33 record: 8-8 (3rd), 452 points scored / 412points allowed
Austin has a good chunk of the team, including basically the non-OL offense, signed signed through S35. The real question feels like when they promote the S30 QB Eighty-Two to starter over S25 incumbent Daytona. Daytona could plausibly retire or position switch to whatever is needed and that could go a long way towards covering up a short term need. They also have S32 QB Worthington III in the DSFL - could be an interesting trade piece but seems unlikely to take over rather than Eighty-Two as the starter next year. The defense needs to get its secondary figured out - they are losing top S28 CB Hu to retirement and don't have S28 S Smith IV currently signed for S34 (though they do have an unprocessed IA offer out). Nearly all of their players do have mutual options which could create a wildly different picture of the team at the start of next season if there are any players who want to go in a different direction or if the team chooses to restructure. I could see it going either way - the team was only 8-8 so some players might want out to go to a better team, but in a weak ASFC that was still good enough to make the playoffs.
Needs entering the draft as of Feb 16: CB is shaping up to be a huge need for S35, but S28 Cameron and recently resigned S25 May look like a decent starting pair. Safety is looking thin if they don't re-sign Smith IV. And finally, Linebacker is a position where they have depth but no top TPE players - neither S28 O'Leary nor S32 Ron are top earners while S23 Montain and S24 Thomaslacher are hitting the rough parts of regression.
Honolulu Hahalua
S33 record: 7-9 (4th), 416 points scored / 442 points allowed
Honolulu has a number of high TPE stars who are (outside of S26 LB Slammu) all signed back for S34. Depth in S33 seems to have been propped up with lower TPE inactives with no impact DSFL callups on their budget sheet. They do have a ton of cap to play with, though, so I'd expect them trying to address needs through FA in the short term to take advantage of the talent they have rather than a drafting for the future. WR and (if they don't sign back Slammu) LB seem like the areas most in need of depth.
I think the real needs at the time of draft will end up depending on the GMs deciding that they're in a position to win and thus go all in for the next year or two, or alternatively they could go medium are hard on building up depth for the future in the draft. My first guess is that they try to capitalize on a good end of season run combined with a weaker ASFC and go for broke next year, but it will probably end up being a question of what kind of players are available and what the costs are more than anything else.
Needs as of Feb 17: WR and LB seem like the most likely top focus. I could see trying to pick up a depth CB/S, but given that the secondary seems thin across a lot of teams now I could see them not finding enough value when it's their pick.
New Orleans Second Line
S33 record: 3-13 (7th), 362 points scored / 447 points allowed
New Orleans has a few key unsigned players heading into S34, the most glaring of which is the QB position signed an extension that hasn't been processed yet which rally threw off my analysis. For the rest of the offense, they also have a really weird position distribution with 3 RBs (plus one retired) and 3 TEs on the roster. S25 RB Rotchburns seems also like a possible retirement casualty. Top WR S29 Crash is also not signed after S33, but the number of RB and TE options might not make WR a priority.
On the defensive side, all actives except top S28 DT Williams are signed through S34. With on inactive at each of DT, DE, CB, and S, defensive depth could be a direction for drafting. Second Line does have some great younger players on defense so it's possible they think that keeping active stars plus IA depth is enough.
Taken together, I could see NOLA using this draft to try and set up for life after their S25 players retire, or I could see them trying to take advantage of the strengths of their stars. Comparing them to Honolulu it feels like they're not as strong in terms of trying to make a run next year after their struggles this year and so my expectations are in the direction of trying to build for the future.
Needs as of Feb 17: DT if they don't hash out an extension. Defensive depth beyond that - at least one secondary player, maybe a third LB or younger DL player.
New York Silverbacks
S33 record: 6-10 (5th), 352 points scored / 471 points allowed
New York has 6 IA offers out and also an accepted QB extension which, assuming all those go through, will do a lot to help fill out their roster for S34. They don't have any amazing offensive weapons outside of S26 WR Speedman and I could definitely see them trying to improve at the RB position with S24 Rogers retiring and S25 Bawlls in regression. OL would also be an interesting area to consider with 3 of their 4 human OL being a part of S25 and heading for a 25% TPE loss.
Moving to the defensive side, I have to assume that S22 DT Mendoza isn't going to be a critical starter next year, though their DE trio is probably enough to hold down the fort next year. The Silverbacks are a fairly low TPE team on defense overall right now which is reflected in their ASFC-worst number of points given up in S33. They have some solid earners, just are a bit short on the high end game changers. I'd expect S23 CB Crooks to be gone next year in favor of presumable callup S33 Dangerfield but I wouldn't be shocked if that's the only real shakeup. New York also has nearly all their starters on both offense and defense signed through S35, which bodes well for them.
Needs as of Feb 17: I'm honestly expecting a best player available pick with a preference for RB assuming all else is equal. I really see the main goal here to be future depth rather than immediate impact - finding OL/DL support to replace the S25 players down the line, maybe another CB as S25 QuakStak enters regression and with S28 Badger being inactive.
Orange County Otter
S33 record: 9-7 (2nd), 410 points scored / 412 points allowed
I'm writing this after the Otters have made the Ultimus but before the broadcast and I could easily see the win vs. loss result changing the direction the team chooses to go in terms of trying to make it back next year. Win or lose, though, it looks like they have all of their active players signed through S34 already (with 3 IA offers out) and I can't imagine them trying to make another run at it next year. On the offense, they have S33 RB Cold and S33 TE Koivu as potential callups. S33 CB de Pengu seems like a possible replacements for the (deeply in regression) S22 Booker, but with no posts to the site since January 5th, that future plan may have stalled. Really, the Otters have some great players that just don't have a great position mix. If one of their 4 RBs was a third WR, I think they'd be more set. On the other hand, if playing RBs in WR splits is actually their gameplan all along, then maybe they have exactly what they want? I'm just used to seeing 1-2 RB and 2-3 WR from offenses and don't actually do research into sim strategy enough to understand the tradeoffs.
Needs as of Feb 17: Regression replacements for WR, LB, and CB. With the weird gluts of players they have at certain positions I could easily see them trying to draft best player and getting some of the extraneous people to position swap. Banking on an unannounced swap in figuring out needs seems fraught with peril, though, so I won't do that here. I would be absolutely unsurprised if it happens, though.
San Jose SaberCats
S33 record: 5-11 (6th), 398 points scored / 434 points allowed
San Jose keeps a good core around for S34 but has some highly impactful retirements to deal with. On the offensive side, S22 RB Lackson is hanging it up and it looks like S25 Vermillion isn't getting extended in their IA offers, leaving the offense a little light. 1 RB, 2 WR, and 1 TE leaves them at least one player short so I see them having to make a play for some offensive player just to have a plausible group. Assuming no FA signings, I'd figure the take the best WR or RB available but don't care deeply between the two.
Over on the defense, S25 DE Crowder retires as the highest TPE player on the defense and leaves the SaberCats' DL in a rough position. They'll return 4 LBs plus a likely callup in S33 Flint, so I wouldn't be shocked to see them playing 1-2 LBs on the line next year. The secondary is losing S24 CB Vaughne to retirement and S23 S Stein didn't get an offer (sensibly, given the post-TPE total you'd be looking at). They do have 147 TPE S32 S Montroy in an emergency, but I also wouldn't be shocked if they go with 1-2 LBs in the secondary. However, 2 DL, 5 LB, and 3 secondary is still one short of 11 so they'll be wanting to find at least one (hopefully non-LB) player to be an upgrade over Montroy. There are 10 DE/DT/CB/S S34 players with more TPE than Montroy, so they can definitely get someone.
Needs as of Feb 17: RB/WR and DL/secondary. Given the relative depth of offense (also 10 - 3 RBs and 7 WRs - over 150 TPE for fewer starter spots), I'd expect them to take the best defensive player in the first round and then cackle at getting a great WR in the second.
One minor note: I'm ignoring GMs when it comes to analysis of both team needs and the draft class itself here. GM picks are always a big factor in understanding actual mocks, but I think the overall look at needs can ignore that. GM picks help ensure a team can hit its needs (presuming that the GMs foresaw what the needs would be correctly) so there's no distortion there, whereas the pick guarantees change priorities in the ordering of the draft picks more than the overall positional desires, in my opinion.
Arizona Outlaws
S33 record: 12-4 (1st), 485 points scored / 381 points allowed
The Outlaws will finally see RB Deadly Memes retiring after years of fantasy experts trying to figure out the carry split between Memes and Jay Cue Jr. Other than that and the potential loss of S25 OL Brent Silva, Arizona is in decent shape looking forward to S34. For S35 and beyond, however, nearly their entire offense is not signed. With nine S25 or older players not yet retired, the Outlaws have a clear concern of figuring out what kind of team they're going to be in S35 and beyond. Will they try to keep up their ASFC dominance of the last few years? Or will that catch up to them and require a rebuild? I don't know, but I do know that the retirement plans of their secondary are going to be important. They do have a pretty respectable set of DSFL players which could help continue the dominance plans even if retirement starts impacting the vets.
Needs entering the draft as of Feb 16: With two S23 safeties and two S25 CBs, the secondary seems like an area of huge importance. The WR pair of S34 Raimon and S25 Pama could support dropping a pick there too, but since they have the S32 receiver pair of TE Kirkby and WR Sam I expect a try for a CB.
Austin Copperheads
S33 record: 8-8 (3rd), 452 points scored / 412points allowed
Austin has a good chunk of the team, including basically the non-OL offense, signed signed through S35. The real question feels like when they promote the S30 QB Eighty-Two to starter over S25 incumbent Daytona. Daytona could plausibly retire or position switch to whatever is needed and that could go a long way towards covering up a short term need. They also have S32 QB Worthington III in the DSFL - could be an interesting trade piece but seems unlikely to take over rather than Eighty-Two as the starter next year. The defense needs to get its secondary figured out - they are losing top S28 CB Hu to retirement and don't have S28 S Smith IV currently signed for S34 (though they do have an unprocessed IA offer out). Nearly all of their players do have mutual options which could create a wildly different picture of the team at the start of next season if there are any players who want to go in a different direction or if the team chooses to restructure. I could see it going either way - the team was only 8-8 so some players might want out to go to a better team, but in a weak ASFC that was still good enough to make the playoffs.
Needs entering the draft as of Feb 16: CB is shaping up to be a huge need for S35, but S28 Cameron and recently resigned S25 May look like a decent starting pair. Safety is looking thin if they don't re-sign Smith IV. And finally, Linebacker is a position where they have depth but no top TPE players - neither S28 O'Leary nor S32 Ron are top earners while S23 Montain and S24 Thomaslacher are hitting the rough parts of regression.
Honolulu Hahalua
S33 record: 7-9 (4th), 416 points scored / 442 points allowed
Honolulu has a number of high TPE stars who are (outside of S26 LB Slammu) all signed back for S34. Depth in S33 seems to have been propped up with lower TPE inactives with no impact DSFL callups on their budget sheet. They do have a ton of cap to play with, though, so I'd expect them trying to address needs through FA in the short term to take advantage of the talent they have rather than a drafting for the future. WR and (if they don't sign back Slammu) LB seem like the areas most in need of depth.
I think the real needs at the time of draft will end up depending on the GMs deciding that they're in a position to win and thus go all in for the next year or two, or alternatively they could go medium are hard on building up depth for the future in the draft. My first guess is that they try to capitalize on a good end of season run combined with a weaker ASFC and go for broke next year, but it will probably end up being a question of what kind of players are available and what the costs are more than anything else.
Needs as of Feb 17: WR and LB seem like the most likely top focus. I could see trying to pick up a depth CB/S, but given that the secondary seems thin across a lot of teams now I could see them not finding enough value when it's their pick.
New Orleans Second Line
S33 record: 3-13 (7th), 362 points scored / 447 points allowed
New Orleans has a few key unsigned players heading into S34, the most glaring of which is the QB position signed an extension that hasn't been processed yet which rally threw off my analysis. For the rest of the offense, they also have a really weird position distribution with 3 RBs (plus one retired) and 3 TEs on the roster. S25 RB Rotchburns seems also like a possible retirement casualty. Top WR S29 Crash is also not signed after S33, but the number of RB and TE options might not make WR a priority.
On the defensive side, all actives except top S28 DT Williams are signed through S34. With on inactive at each of DT, DE, CB, and S, defensive depth could be a direction for drafting. Second Line does have some great younger players on defense so it's possible they think that keeping active stars plus IA depth is enough.
Taken together, I could see NOLA using this draft to try and set up for life after their S25 players retire, or I could see them trying to take advantage of the strengths of their stars. Comparing them to Honolulu it feels like they're not as strong in terms of trying to make a run next year after their struggles this year and so my expectations are in the direction of trying to build for the future.
Needs as of Feb 17: DT if they don't hash out an extension. Defensive depth beyond that - at least one secondary player, maybe a third LB or younger DL player.
New York Silverbacks
S33 record: 6-10 (5th), 352 points scored / 471 points allowed
New York has 6 IA offers out and also an accepted QB extension which, assuming all those go through, will do a lot to help fill out their roster for S34. They don't have any amazing offensive weapons outside of S26 WR Speedman and I could definitely see them trying to improve at the RB position with S24 Rogers retiring and S25 Bawlls in regression. OL would also be an interesting area to consider with 3 of their 4 human OL being a part of S25 and heading for a 25% TPE loss.
Moving to the defensive side, I have to assume that S22 DT Mendoza isn't going to be a critical starter next year, though their DE trio is probably enough to hold down the fort next year. The Silverbacks are a fairly low TPE team on defense overall right now which is reflected in their ASFC-worst number of points given up in S33. They have some solid earners, just are a bit short on the high end game changers. I'd expect S23 CB Crooks to be gone next year in favor of presumable callup S33 Dangerfield but I wouldn't be shocked if that's the only real shakeup. New York also has nearly all their starters on both offense and defense signed through S35, which bodes well for them.
Needs as of Feb 17: I'm honestly expecting a best player available pick with a preference for RB assuming all else is equal. I really see the main goal here to be future depth rather than immediate impact - finding OL/DL support to replace the S25 players down the line, maybe another CB as S25 QuakStak enters regression and with S28 Badger being inactive.
Orange County Otter
S33 record: 9-7 (2nd), 410 points scored / 412 points allowed
I'm writing this after the Otters have made the Ultimus but before the broadcast and I could easily see the win vs. loss result changing the direction the team chooses to go in terms of trying to make it back next year. Win or lose, though, it looks like they have all of their active players signed through S34 already (with 3 IA offers out) and I can't imagine them trying to make another run at it next year. On the offense, they have S33 RB Cold and S33 TE Koivu as potential callups. S33 CB de Pengu seems like a possible replacements for the (deeply in regression) S22 Booker, but with no posts to the site since January 5th, that future plan may have stalled. Really, the Otters have some great players that just don't have a great position mix. If one of their 4 RBs was a third WR, I think they'd be more set. On the other hand, if playing RBs in WR splits is actually their gameplan all along, then maybe they have exactly what they want? I'm just used to seeing 1-2 RB and 2-3 WR from offenses and don't actually do research into sim strategy enough to understand the tradeoffs.
Needs as of Feb 17: Regression replacements for WR, LB, and CB. With the weird gluts of players they have at certain positions I could easily see them trying to draft best player and getting some of the extraneous people to position swap. Banking on an unannounced swap in figuring out needs seems fraught with peril, though, so I won't do that here. I would be absolutely unsurprised if it happens, though.
San Jose SaberCats
S33 record: 5-11 (6th), 398 points scored / 434 points allowed
San Jose keeps a good core around for S34 but has some highly impactful retirements to deal with. On the offensive side, S22 RB Lackson is hanging it up and it looks like S25 Vermillion isn't getting extended in their IA offers, leaving the offense a little light. 1 RB, 2 WR, and 1 TE leaves them at least one player short so I see them having to make a play for some offensive player just to have a plausible group. Assuming no FA signings, I'd figure the take the best WR or RB available but don't care deeply between the two.
Over on the defense, S25 DE Crowder retires as the highest TPE player on the defense and leaves the SaberCats' DL in a rough position. They'll return 4 LBs plus a likely callup in S33 Flint, so I wouldn't be shocked to see them playing 1-2 LBs on the line next year. The secondary is losing S24 CB Vaughne to retirement and S23 S Stein didn't get an offer (sensibly, given the post-TPE total you'd be looking at). They do have 147 TPE S32 S Montroy in an emergency, but I also wouldn't be shocked if they go with 1-2 LBs in the secondary. However, 2 DL, 5 LB, and 3 secondary is still one short of 11 so they'll be wanting to find at least one (hopefully non-LB) player to be an upgrade over Montroy. There are 10 DE/DT/CB/S S34 players with more TPE than Montroy, so they can definitely get someone.
Needs as of Feb 17: RB/WR and DL/secondary. Given the relative depth of offense (also 10 - 3 RBs and 7 WRs - over 150 TPE for fewer starter spots), I'd expect them to take the best defensive player in the first round and then cackle at getting a great WR in the second.
Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
Troen Egghands (retired S22 DE) - Profile | Update | Wiki