02-19-2022, 05:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-21-2022, 08:14 PM by Crunk. Edited 2 times in total.)
Following up on my article on ASFC team draft needs, here's the parallel version made of the NSFC teams!
Since the previous article, Orange County failed to hold on to their 24-0 lead in the Ultimus as Baltimore pulled off an exciting 14 point 4th quarter comeback to win, while there's been a flurry of contracts consisting primarily of extensions. Will there be a big free agent shakeup? I'm writing this analysis assuming there won't be, but I'll try to incorporate any moves done before I submit the article. So, let's get right into it.
Edit notes: First version of this forgot Sarasota, oops. I blame my page layout. Also, I'm not currently planning on going back to update the analysis to account for players with options getting cut/opting out, but I might if I find extra time.
Baltimore Hawks
S33 record: 11-5 (2nd), 468 points scored / 401 points allowed
Posted unprocessed signings:
* S28 DT Ramczyk (extension)
* S28 RB Goose (extension)
* S31 DE Czargyros (extension)
The Ultimus winners enter S34 with a solid base roster. All their offensive stars other than Goose are signed through S36 or S37. The OL is pretty questionable with S22 Buckley way into regression but S32 AwardsSystemIsBad looks to be earning at a good rate. If they don't want to go OL, I could see looking for a WR as an eventual replacement for S27 WR Parker, but it's not an immediate need.
Defense is a bit weaker/older than the offense. Extending the DL pair of Ramczyk and Czargyros combined with S29 DT Smyth who was still under contract gives them a good start for covering up the gaps, but they're still 2 total players short of a front 7. Their roster for S33 looks to have been 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 CB, and 3 S so they might be planning on living in base nickel, but that still leaves them needing at least one DL/LB and then someone else for the secondary. They have about $30m in cap after the posted signings but will need 3 OL draftees/bots - probably not enough to pay a star level amount for an FA. I'd expect them to at least ask around but I'm expecting them to be willing to use IA players while relying on their star offense to make another Ultimus run.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: While they could go any of OL/LB/CB/S, I'd expect the priority to be setting up for a future at LB given that their two contracted players are both in S26 and hitting regression. If the top LBs are all gone, taking a top CB or S wouldn't shock me either. With the depth of quality at WR in this draft, maybe the defensive side is depleted enough that they go for the offense backup, but I'd have to think it's not the best option unless there's an amazing player left.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
S33 record: 9-7 (4th), 439 points scored / 408 points allowed
Berlin had a solid year that wasn't quite enough to make it to the playoffs. They've lost S22 RB Nakamura and S25 WR Skiuuup to free agency so far, though S33 WR Toledo will likely fill that gap next year. I wouldn't be surprised if they want to pick up another RB to be the future given that S25 Tank is going to start hitting the rougher parts of regression. This might also be a year they consider finding a replacement for S28 QB Zaylren if they want to aim for continuity, but their needs in other positions might end up trumping any plans in that direction.
On the defensive side, they have a complete set of starters for a 4-3 base defense. The three oldest players are S24 LB Schell, S25 CB Lenkins, and S26 LB McMullet, so I'd rank a future for LB as the likely higher priority. The DL looks fine (other than having someone on it who likes hot salads). If anything, the priority for the defense might be getting extensions for S35 and later for the players they want to keep around after this season more than drafting replacements.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: LB followed by RB or CB. However, I think Berlin has the luxury to take a better player if there's a run on the other two positions since they don't have any positions they have to fill to field a team in S34. They'll need to address those positions for after S34 sure, but it's not an emergency. For that reason, I could also see them trading for future picks if the right deal comes along.
Chicago Butchers
S33 record: 10-6 (3rd), 518 points scored / 432 points allowed
After a league-leading number of points in S33, the Butchers return the entire offense outside of S25 OL Dimbi. The offense is generally on the younger side too - S24 OL Riposte is the only real old player, though the S27 pair of RB Hayes and WR Hunt will need a replacement at some time in the future. S33 RB Bartok might be in play for the future, but I'm not seeing any update activity in the last couple weeks.
The defense, on the other hand, is the older half of the team. The current roster covers a 4-2 nickel package, but given the losses from last year of S22 DT Brooks, S24 LBs Domine and Chainbreaker, and S28 CB Tingzpahcbol, I have to think some defensive depth might be in the plans. S33 DE Strongjaw seems like an upgrade over S29 Salami, but they might be holding off on that move until they figure out their cap/OL situation? Still, this team is in an overall decent position for S34 already.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: OL is the closest they have to a weakness. Outside of that, I'd expect them to look at best player/user available without worrying about what position that player is in because they have the roster luxury to do that. The only complicating factor might be cap, but picking up human OL for a discount vs. bots helps there too.
Colorado Yeti
S33 record: 9-7 (5th), 435 points scored / 406 points allowed
With S24 QB Caliban announcing retirement the Yeti offense will presumably move under S32 Laughlove's control. That will probably shake things up a bit, but with a really solid rest of the offense (plus likely callup S32 OL McHits) the offense seems like it'll be fine. S26 WR Delacour is the oldest remaining offensive player, but with 3 other WRs I don't think a replacement is a priority.
The defense, on the other hand, is full of holes. With no DL, 2 LB, 3CB, and one S, Colorado needs to get some bodies immediately. The complete lack of any DL is a big problem, but a secondary made up of 2 S25 CBs, an S26 CB, and an S27 S is also a looming problem. League conventional wisdom is that DL plays better at lower TPE than most other positions, so I could see prioritizing a secondary player if there's a good one left when the Yeti pick even if there are higher TPE DL available. The related question is if there are sufficient players available via trade or FA/IA to field a competent line. The offense is strong enough that I could see the GMs making a push for hitting the playoffs this year rather than trying to draft for later after the offense is hitting regression. With the age of the defense that could easily be a very risky approach, but they were close to making the playoffs this year so it could well be a risk they're willing to take.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: DL, CB, and S. I think the actual pick will depend primarily on who they've managed to pick up in trade/FA and relative quality, but given equal players across all three positions I'd expect them to pick CB. I haven't gone through the process to mock out picks and see who would actually be available, though, so I wouldn't be surprised if they take the other positions because the top CBs are all gone.
Philidelphia Liberty
S33 record: 6-10 (6th), 336 points scored / 412 points allowed
Philly had the worst point scoring offense despite reasonable yard gaining capabilities. An amazing (but in a bad way) -22 turnover differential certainly was involved here. I'm not sure if that's just bad luck or if it's a matter of the team deprioritizing competitiveness in builds or what, but that's still rough. The team was fielding lower TPE WRs so that could be a factor, and that's where they're looking weakest right now - only S32 Sama is currently on the roster. S33 King seems like a very possible callup and they have S31 "The Hero" (who has a 92 TPE update and so apparently isn't quite as inactive as I'd thought from TPE totals) as a possible callup. With that WR pair as options (and two S33 QBs for some reason and I can't imagine they want to keep both of them so I'd expect the team to be looking for trades), I think the offense looks fine for this draft.
The defensive side is set for bodies to play 3-4 with a 5th DB for nickel, so they don't need a player immediately. They also have S31 LB Claflin and S33 DE Archer as non-max earning options if needed. The deeper concern is non-immediate - Philly has 4 S25 players (DT Haywood, DE Wrecks, LB Goodman, LB DeSoto) and they'll need to be figuring out how to move forward as those players start retiring. All other options being equal, I think I see them prioritizing LB first since they're running 4 vs. 3 DL and their DSFL callup option is 2 seasons older. Taking a DB would surprise me a bit since they're fairly set there, but with 4 of the players in S28 I could see them wanting to set up for replacements if a better player is available.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: LB first, but DT/DE if the top LBs are all taken. With a pair of decently (though not top) earning S33 QBs, I could also see them creating some interesting trade packages to try and take advantage of their starting QB before regression really gets to him.
Sarasota Sailfish
(Thanks for Frost for pointing out that I am bad at counting and didn't realize I covered 6 teams and not 7)
S33 record: 12-4 (1st), 431 points scored / 336 points allowed
Despite a rookie QB in S31 Knight, Sarasota rode its offensive stars to a number one finish in the NSFC. The offense returns intact outside of S26 OL James III. Regression will hit S24 RB (FB archetype) J'Vathon hard and S26 TE Messi a little bit, but I'd expect the offense to be at least as good next year as it was this year.
The defense, though, is where the Sailfish shone in S33 - they led the league in points and rush yards allowed and were also great in passing/overall yards allowed. They're losing S23 DT Goku and fellow S23 DT Kackpoo is going to suffer from regression. The S24 duo of LB Boss Jr. and CB Andrews are going to see an impact too, but they're at a high enough TPE total to still be starters. With no promising DSFL players, Sarasota has to be looking towards its defensive replacements of the future. S26 DE Moyes and S31 DT Kekua are enough to anchor a DL for a couple years, and the LB duo of S26 Lover and S30 draft give flexibility there, but they'll need to start addressing those positions.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: Given their high finish and therefore the lower draft pick, I see Sarasota trying to take a linebacker but being willing to take a DE/DT if the quality is much higher. Getting a replacement CB and S for the future would be nice too, but they have a little more depth/time there.
Yellowknife Wraiths
S33 record: 5-11 (7th), 385 points scored / 493 points allowed
Yellowknife's offense actually led the league in passing yards while being league worst for rushing yards. That might be a contributor to why they only won the time of possession battle in 5 games for the season. Only having RBs under 500 TPE can't help much either, I assume. The Wraiths have a great QB/WR/TE trio going into the next season or three, but the aging WR pair of S23 Sakura and S25 Walker will have to be addressed at some point (they did have S33 WR Frost II who was cut so they were clearly trying to shore the position up). Given the ineffectiveness of the rushing game last year, RB might be the immediate priority, but in a deep WR class I could see them trying to pick up both in the draft. They do have an IA bid out for S25 WR Chambers as presumably a stopgap for this year, though.
For defense, they're currently at 10 starters (3 DL, 3 LB, 3 CB, 1 S). I'd judge S33 LB Arnold as a very likely callup as the current 4th highest TPE earner of S33. S32 CB Blaze could also be called up, but at only 373 TPE might not make sense this year depending on cap or whatever. The defense's biggest issue I'd guess is LB youth - S32 GreyWolf and S33 Cussion are earning well, but when an entire position group is low TPE it's going to cause problems. Having only one member of the secondary over 600 TPE doesn't help either - I'm guessing they gave up so many points by other teams just avoiding the defensive stars and picking on the weak spots. The issues with time of possession could also be due to the newer players not having as high of endurance and just not being able to keep up with opposing offenses. And once you get a bit behind, the defense is on the field longer which takes more endurance and then they get slower, etc. in a negative feedback loop. So really, another year of earning might be enough to see a huge improvement on the defense for Yellowknife, especially if they can upgrade at RB in some way.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: RB seems like the preferred first pick with WR as the second. The defense seems like it should be serviceable if the offense can hold onto the ball longer, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to upgrade at DL or CB/S if there's a good player left.
Since the previous article, Orange County failed to hold on to their 24-0 lead in the Ultimus as Baltimore pulled off an exciting 14 point 4th quarter comeback to win, while there's been a flurry of contracts consisting primarily of extensions. Will there be a big free agent shakeup? I'm writing this analysis assuming there won't be, but I'll try to incorporate any moves done before I submit the article. So, let's get right into it.
Edit notes: First version of this forgot Sarasota, oops. I blame my page layout. Also, I'm not currently planning on going back to update the analysis to account for players with options getting cut/opting out, but I might if I find extra time.
Baltimore Hawks
S33 record: 11-5 (2nd), 468 points scored / 401 points allowed
Posted unprocessed signings:
* S28 DT Ramczyk (extension)
* S28 RB Goose (extension)
* S31 DE Czargyros (extension)
The Ultimus winners enter S34 with a solid base roster. All their offensive stars other than Goose are signed through S36 or S37. The OL is pretty questionable with S22 Buckley way into regression but S32 AwardsSystemIsBad looks to be earning at a good rate. If they don't want to go OL, I could see looking for a WR as an eventual replacement for S27 WR Parker, but it's not an immediate need.
Defense is a bit weaker/older than the offense. Extending the DL pair of Ramczyk and Czargyros combined with S29 DT Smyth who was still under contract gives them a good start for covering up the gaps, but they're still 2 total players short of a front 7. Their roster for S33 looks to have been 3 DL, 3 LB, 3 CB, and 3 S so they might be planning on living in base nickel, but that still leaves them needing at least one DL/LB and then someone else for the secondary. They have about $30m in cap after the posted signings but will need 3 OL draftees/bots - probably not enough to pay a star level amount for an FA. I'd expect them to at least ask around but I'm expecting them to be willing to use IA players while relying on their star offense to make another Ultimus run.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: While they could go any of OL/LB/CB/S, I'd expect the priority to be setting up for a future at LB given that their two contracted players are both in S26 and hitting regression. If the top LBs are all gone, taking a top CB or S wouldn't shock me either. With the depth of quality at WR in this draft, maybe the defensive side is depleted enough that they go for the offense backup, but I'd have to think it's not the best option unless there's an amazing player left.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
S33 record: 9-7 (4th), 439 points scored / 408 points allowed
Berlin had a solid year that wasn't quite enough to make it to the playoffs. They've lost S22 RB Nakamura and S25 WR Skiuuup to free agency so far, though S33 WR Toledo will likely fill that gap next year. I wouldn't be surprised if they want to pick up another RB to be the future given that S25 Tank is going to start hitting the rougher parts of regression. This might also be a year they consider finding a replacement for S28 QB Zaylren if they want to aim for continuity, but their needs in other positions might end up trumping any plans in that direction.
On the defensive side, they have a complete set of starters for a 4-3 base defense. The three oldest players are S24 LB Schell, S25 CB Lenkins, and S26 LB McMullet, so I'd rank a future for LB as the likely higher priority. The DL looks fine (other than having someone on it who likes hot salads). If anything, the priority for the defense might be getting extensions for S35 and later for the players they want to keep around after this season more than drafting replacements.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: LB followed by RB or CB. However, I think Berlin has the luxury to take a better player if there's a run on the other two positions since they don't have any positions they have to fill to field a team in S34. They'll need to address those positions for after S34 sure, but it's not an emergency. For that reason, I could also see them trading for future picks if the right deal comes along.
Chicago Butchers
S33 record: 10-6 (3rd), 518 points scored / 432 points allowed
After a league-leading number of points in S33, the Butchers return the entire offense outside of S25 OL Dimbi. The offense is generally on the younger side too - S24 OL Riposte is the only real old player, though the S27 pair of RB Hayes and WR Hunt will need a replacement at some time in the future. S33 RB Bartok might be in play for the future, but I'm not seeing any update activity in the last couple weeks.
The defense, on the other hand, is the older half of the team. The current roster covers a 4-2 nickel package, but given the losses from last year of S22 DT Brooks, S24 LBs Domine and Chainbreaker, and S28 CB Tingzpahcbol, I have to think some defensive depth might be in the plans. S33 DE Strongjaw seems like an upgrade over S29 Salami, but they might be holding off on that move until they figure out their cap/OL situation? Still, this team is in an overall decent position for S34 already.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: OL is the closest they have to a weakness. Outside of that, I'd expect them to look at best player/user available without worrying about what position that player is in because they have the roster luxury to do that. The only complicating factor might be cap, but picking up human OL for a discount vs. bots helps there too.
Colorado Yeti
S33 record: 9-7 (5th), 435 points scored / 406 points allowed
With S24 QB Caliban announcing retirement the Yeti offense will presumably move under S32 Laughlove's control. That will probably shake things up a bit, but with a really solid rest of the offense (plus likely callup S32 OL McHits) the offense seems like it'll be fine. S26 WR Delacour is the oldest remaining offensive player, but with 3 other WRs I don't think a replacement is a priority.
The defense, on the other hand, is full of holes. With no DL, 2 LB, 3CB, and one S, Colorado needs to get some bodies immediately. The complete lack of any DL is a big problem, but a secondary made up of 2 S25 CBs, an S26 CB, and an S27 S is also a looming problem. League conventional wisdom is that DL plays better at lower TPE than most other positions, so I could see prioritizing a secondary player if there's a good one left when the Yeti pick even if there are higher TPE DL available. The related question is if there are sufficient players available via trade or FA/IA to field a competent line. The offense is strong enough that I could see the GMs making a push for hitting the playoffs this year rather than trying to draft for later after the offense is hitting regression. With the age of the defense that could easily be a very risky approach, but they were close to making the playoffs this year so it could well be a risk they're willing to take.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: DL, CB, and S. I think the actual pick will depend primarily on who they've managed to pick up in trade/FA and relative quality, but given equal players across all three positions I'd expect them to pick CB. I haven't gone through the process to mock out picks and see who would actually be available, though, so I wouldn't be surprised if they take the other positions because the top CBs are all gone.
Philidelphia Liberty
S33 record: 6-10 (6th), 336 points scored / 412 points allowed
Philly had the worst point scoring offense despite reasonable yard gaining capabilities. An amazing (but in a bad way) -22 turnover differential certainly was involved here. I'm not sure if that's just bad luck or if it's a matter of the team deprioritizing competitiveness in builds or what, but that's still rough. The team was fielding lower TPE WRs so that could be a factor, and that's where they're looking weakest right now - only S32 Sama is currently on the roster. S33 King seems like a very possible callup and they have S31 "The Hero" (who has a 92 TPE update and so apparently isn't quite as inactive as I'd thought from TPE totals) as a possible callup. With that WR pair as options (and two S33 QBs for some reason and I can't imagine they want to keep both of them so I'd expect the team to be looking for trades), I think the offense looks fine for this draft.
The defensive side is set for bodies to play 3-4 with a 5th DB for nickel, so they don't need a player immediately. They also have S31 LB Claflin and S33 DE Archer as non-max earning options if needed. The deeper concern is non-immediate - Philly has 4 S25 players (DT Haywood, DE Wrecks, LB Goodman, LB DeSoto) and they'll need to be figuring out how to move forward as those players start retiring. All other options being equal, I think I see them prioritizing LB first since they're running 4 vs. 3 DL and their DSFL callup option is 2 seasons older. Taking a DB would surprise me a bit since they're fairly set there, but with 4 of the players in S28 I could see them wanting to set up for replacements if a better player is available.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: LB first, but DT/DE if the top LBs are all taken. With a pair of decently (though not top) earning S33 QBs, I could also see them creating some interesting trade packages to try and take advantage of their starting QB before regression really gets to him.
Sarasota Sailfish
(Thanks for Frost for pointing out that I am bad at counting and didn't realize I covered 6 teams and not 7)
S33 record: 12-4 (1st), 431 points scored / 336 points allowed
Despite a rookie QB in S31 Knight, Sarasota rode its offensive stars to a number one finish in the NSFC. The offense returns intact outside of S26 OL James III. Regression will hit S24 RB (FB archetype) J'Vathon hard and S26 TE Messi a little bit, but I'd expect the offense to be at least as good next year as it was this year.
The defense, though, is where the Sailfish shone in S33 - they led the league in points and rush yards allowed and were also great in passing/overall yards allowed. They're losing S23 DT Goku and fellow S23 DT Kackpoo is going to suffer from regression. The S24 duo of LB Boss Jr. and CB Andrews are going to see an impact too, but they're at a high enough TPE total to still be starters. With no promising DSFL players, Sarasota has to be looking towards its defensive replacements of the future. S26 DE Moyes and S31 DT Kekua are enough to anchor a DL for a couple years, and the LB duo of S26 Lover and S30 draft give flexibility there, but they'll need to start addressing those positions.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: Given their high finish and therefore the lower draft pick, I see Sarasota trying to take a linebacker but being willing to take a DE/DT if the quality is much higher. Getting a replacement CB and S for the future would be nice too, but they have a little more depth/time there.
Yellowknife Wraiths
S33 record: 5-11 (7th), 385 points scored / 493 points allowed
Yellowknife's offense actually led the league in passing yards while being league worst for rushing yards. That might be a contributor to why they only won the time of possession battle in 5 games for the season. Only having RBs under 500 TPE can't help much either, I assume. The Wraiths have a great QB/WR/TE trio going into the next season or three, but the aging WR pair of S23 Sakura and S25 Walker will have to be addressed at some point (they did have S33 WR Frost II who was cut so they were clearly trying to shore the position up). Given the ineffectiveness of the rushing game last year, RB might be the immediate priority, but in a deep WR class I could see them trying to pick up both in the draft. They do have an IA bid out for S25 WR Chambers as presumably a stopgap for this year, though.
For defense, they're currently at 10 starters (3 DL, 3 LB, 3 CB, 1 S). I'd judge S33 LB Arnold as a very likely callup as the current 4th highest TPE earner of S33. S32 CB Blaze could also be called up, but at only 373 TPE might not make sense this year depending on cap or whatever. The defense's biggest issue I'd guess is LB youth - S32 GreyWolf and S33 Cussion are earning well, but when an entire position group is low TPE it's going to cause problems. Having only one member of the secondary over 600 TPE doesn't help either - I'm guessing they gave up so many points by other teams just avoiding the defensive stars and picking on the weak spots. The issues with time of possession could also be due to the newer players not having as high of endurance and just not being able to keep up with opposing offenses. And once you get a bit behind, the defense is on the field longer which takes more endurance and then they get slower, etc. in a negative feedback loop. So really, another year of earning might be enough to see a huge improvement on the defense for Yellowknife, especially if they can upgrade at RB in some way.
Draft needs as of Feb 19th: RB seems like the preferred first pick with WR as the second. The defense seems like it should be serviceable if the offense can hold onto the ball longer, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to upgrade at DL or CB/S if there's a good player left.
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Draft Steal (retired S35 CB) - Profile/Update | Wiki
Troen Egghands (retired S22 DE) - Profile | Update | Wiki
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![[Image: CalhounSig-Frost.png?width=1021&height=676]](https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/630708840689827862/1124076725534474240/CalhounSig-Frost.png?width=1021&height=676)
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