05-05-2022, 01:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2022, 03:00 PM by soevil. Edited 4 times in total.)
So you wanna make some money? The Casino still has their Season 35 Over/Under bets available - they close May 6th prior to the stream of the Week 3 games (so approximately 8PM Eastern). Season Over/Unders have been a way that the wealthy continue to pad their bank accounts because they can leverage a greater proportion of their total net worth. One of the reasons why a lot of the richest users in the league throw chunks of money into Season Over/Unders is because with a bit of math, logic, and luck you can win a ludicrous amount of money.
Although the lines are subject to change - and I’d expect them to if people start hammering my suggestions - the same math I’ve used to figure out where I want to put my money should apply, you just have to consider what the new line is.
Berlin Fire Salamanders Over 5.5 Wins
Berlin has started the year 2-0, so they only need to win 4 more games for this bet to hit. Five teams have started 2-0 this season and the Fire Salamanders do have the second worst point differential of those teams (10 difference in PF/PA with Sarasota having the worst at 8). I’m still buying that they can get to 6 wins. They only need to win 29% of their games down the stretch. Since Season 27, only 11 out of 112 teams (9.8%) have failed to win 29% of their final 14 games. Of those teams only one, Season 32 Baltimore, started 2-0. Season 32 Baltimore went on to win 5 games, so one shy of what the Fire Salamanders need. This feels like a very good bet to hammer for the max amount.
EDIT: This line has already been adjusted to 7.5
Chicago Butchers Under 10.5 Wins
Chicago has started the year 0-2 and still needs to win a full 11 games down the stretch to hit their mark. Of the five teams to start 0-2, Chicago has the second best point differential (9 difference in PF/PA with Philadelphia having the best at 8). That does make me hesitate some, however Chicago winning 11 out of their 14 remaining games would equate out to 79%. Only 9 out of 112 teams since Season 27 have won 79% of their last 14 games. Of those teams only two, Season 27 Arizona and Season 28 Arizona, started 0-2.
Honolulu Hahalua Under 11.5 Wins
Honolulu is in much of the same position Chicago is. They started 1-1 on the year and are one of only two teams to start 1-1 this season who have a positive point differential. Regardless, to win 12 games they’d need to go 11/14 - identical to Chicago - down the stretch. The same match applies here, hammer the under.
Colorado Yeti Under 4.5 Wins
The Yeti have started the year 0-2 and have allowed the third most points in the league with 72 allowed. Their defense is very weak. They have the lowest total TPE in the league and the lowest defensive TPE in the league. They only have one player to crack 750 TPE on the defensive side of the ball - Jason Waterfalls at linebacker. They would need to win 36% of their games down the stretch to meet the 5 win mark which has been accomplished by 37 out of 112 teams since Season 27 (33%). Only 8 of those 37 teams (21.6% and 7% overall) started 0-2.
Austin Copperheads Under 6.5 Wins
The Yeti may have the lowest team total TPE in the league, however Austin isn’t far behind them with the third lowest (only 1200 TPE higher than the Yeti). They have the second lowest average TPE in the league - only a smidge below the Silverbacks. The Copperheads have a line set 2 wins more than the Yeti and also started 0-2. I’d get a taste of this line because expecting them to win 50% of their games down the stretch feels generous.
Baltimore Hawks Over 8.5 Wins
Baltimore excites me because they’ve started the year 2-0. That leaves them only needing to go 7-7 (50% #quickmaths) down the stretch for this bet to hit. Their +36 point differential is encouraging to me, even though they played Yellowknife and Austin to get to that mark. For comparison, that point differential is almost bigger than the total amount of points Yellowknife (37 points) and New York (39 points) have scored on the year.
Yellowknife Wraiths Under 5.5 Wins
This bet requires the Wraiths to win the same amount of games down the stretch as the Yeti - so crossapply a lot of my reasoning from above to here. They have a similarly weak team in terms of total and average TPE. They have one win on the year but need one more win for this bet to hit - so its kinda a net neutral position when compared to the Yeti.
Arizona Outlaws Under 10.5 Wins
Arizona is a good team and always manages to win games. That being said, expecting them to win 71% of their games down the stretch with a team thats in the middle of the road (7th overall) in team total TPE and only a smidge better (6th overall) in average TPE feels like a big ask.
Although the lines are subject to change - and I’d expect them to if people start hammering my suggestions - the same math I’ve used to figure out where I want to put my money should apply, you just have to consider what the new line is.
Best Bets
I would bet these all the way up to $5M in their current form and would consider betting them even if the lines change. Berlin Fire Salamanders Over 5.5 Wins
Berlin has started the year 2-0, so they only need to win 4 more games for this bet to hit. Five teams have started 2-0 this season and the Fire Salamanders do have the second worst point differential of those teams (10 difference in PF/PA with Sarasota having the worst at 8). I’m still buying that they can get to 6 wins. They only need to win 29% of their games down the stretch. Since Season 27, only 11 out of 112 teams (9.8%) have failed to win 29% of their final 14 games. Of those teams only one, Season 32 Baltimore, started 2-0. Season 32 Baltimore went on to win 5 games, so one shy of what the Fire Salamanders need. This feels like a very good bet to hammer for the max amount.
EDIT: This line has already been adjusted to 7.5
Chicago Butchers Under 10.5 Wins
Chicago has started the year 0-2 and still needs to win a full 11 games down the stretch to hit their mark. Of the five teams to start 0-2, Chicago has the second best point differential (9 difference in PF/PA with Philadelphia having the best at 8). That does make me hesitate some, however Chicago winning 11 out of their 14 remaining games would equate out to 79%. Only 9 out of 112 teams since Season 27 have won 79% of their last 14 games. Of those teams only two, Season 27 Arizona and Season 28 Arizona, started 0-2.
Honolulu Hahalua Under 11.5 Wins
Honolulu is in much of the same position Chicago is. They started 1-1 on the year and are one of only two teams to start 1-1 this season who have a positive point differential. Regardless, to win 12 games they’d need to go 11/14 - identical to Chicago - down the stretch. The same match applies here, hammer the under.
Get a Taste
I would get a taste of these lines but would be cautious betting the max $5M unless you’re just really feeling good. Colorado Yeti Under 4.5 Wins
The Yeti have started the year 0-2 and have allowed the third most points in the league with 72 allowed. Their defense is very weak. They have the lowest total TPE in the league and the lowest defensive TPE in the league. They only have one player to crack 750 TPE on the defensive side of the ball - Jason Waterfalls at linebacker. They would need to win 36% of their games down the stretch to meet the 5 win mark which has been accomplished by 37 out of 112 teams since Season 27 (33%). Only 8 of those 37 teams (21.6% and 7% overall) started 0-2.
Austin Copperheads Under 6.5 Wins
The Yeti may have the lowest team total TPE in the league, however Austin isn’t far behind them with the third lowest (only 1200 TPE higher than the Yeti). They have the second lowest average TPE in the league - only a smidge below the Silverbacks. The Copperheads have a line set 2 wins more than the Yeti and also started 0-2. I’d get a taste of this line because expecting them to win 50% of their games down the stretch feels generous.
Baltimore Hawks Over 8.5 Wins
Baltimore excites me because they’ve started the year 2-0. That leaves them only needing to go 7-7 (50% #quickmaths) down the stretch for this bet to hit. Their +36 point differential is encouraging to me, even though they played Yellowknife and Austin to get to that mark. For comparison, that point differential is almost bigger than the total amount of points Yellowknife (37 points) and New York (39 points) have scored on the year.
Worth the Risk
I’d be the minimum or a bit over on these. I think they have a chance of hitting but don’t be upset if none do. Yellowknife Wraiths Under 5.5 Wins
This bet requires the Wraiths to win the same amount of games down the stretch as the Yeti - so crossapply a lot of my reasoning from above to here. They have a similarly weak team in terms of total and average TPE. They have one win on the year but need one more win for this bet to hit - so its kinda a net neutral position when compared to the Yeti.
Arizona Outlaws Under 10.5 Wins
Arizona is a good team and always manages to win games. That being said, expecting them to win 71% of their games down the stretch with a team thats in the middle of the road (7th overall) in team total TPE and only a smidge better (6th overall) in average TPE feels like a big ask.