06-30-2022, 01:15 PM
(This post was last modified: 07-07-2022, 06:02 PM by soevil. Edited 1 time in total.)
Hi, as some of you may know I have a lot of fake money and limited ways to spend it so why not gamble? That's what my dad did anyway and I ended up totally fine after he left me and my brothers on a casino floor in Las Vegas. I hear he's doing well.
Huh? Oh, right, so the casino deadline is coming up on Friday, 01 July and only one line changed between Week 1 and Week 2. I didn't see any other media about picks, so figured I'd chime in. If you bet because of me, it's not my fault when you lose. But it is my fault if you win, so please celebrate my praises when you steal all the money from @IceBear32's vault.
For context, I placed my bets prior to Week 1. Only one line changed since then (YKW). I'm still considering changing my bets before the Week 3 deadline, but I'm not sure just yet. I know, great way to lead into a list of recommendations! Anyways, here they are alongside a quick analysis for each.
Definitely taking the casino's money:
O/U 10.5
Over
Jay Cue Jr., Wendell Sailor, Katoni Staggs, Quinton Crash, Billy Stinkwater, Bernie Sanders.. what else are you looking for out of an offense? Arizona just barely lost to the defending champs in Week 1, and while they may not have emerged with a blowout in Week 2 against the Copperheads they are still my team to beat for the season.
Don't let the loss to Honolulu get you shook. Arizona is winning at least 11 games this season.
O/U 5.5
Over
New York still has a long way to go on defense and Malcolm Savage hasn't quite turned out to be the #1 fantasy QB everyone thought he would be. Neither of those should be reason to think New York won't put up 6 wins this season. They are further ahead into their rebuild than some of the other teams this list, and Michelangelo McTurtle is showing a lot of promise as an offensive weapon to take some of the pressure off Savage. If the defense can keep up, which is a big if, I could easily New York winning 7 or 8 games this season.
O/U 8.5
Over
Everyone is sleeping on Yellowknife, so I'm not too worried about the Week 2 loss against what I believe will be one of the top defenses this season. Dante King and Busch Goose are still a force to be reckoned with, and I'd go so far as to say Baltimore is going to sim optimize their way to a playoff berth. The defense is still a force to be reckoned with as well -- into Week 2, they're ranked #4 in points allowed. This is an easy pick.
O/U 6.5
Over
Remember when the Austin Copperheads' Twitter account tried to dunk on the Liberty because they're just a bunch of bells? Yeah, don't worry about that. Philly might be rebuilding but they are still showing a great deal of promise, even behind a lot of young guns on both sides of the ball. I mean for real, their first win was against Yellowknife.. Austin's only win was against the Yeti. By three points. ratio + kekw + Philly is definitely getting 7 wins.
Feeling good about it:
O/U 8.5 (formerly 7.5)
Over
The only line that changed between Week 1 and Week 2. I liked this a lot more at 7.5 but this is on the verge of being a sure thing for me. It just remains to be seen how much the sim hates Dustin Parmelee, which over the last season and change seems to be a lot. Maybe it's not all about TPE after all! I think the defense makes up for any shortcomings here, but I'll be damned if the sim doesn't hate Yellowknife with a passion.
O/U 10.5
Over
The combined power of Carter Knight, John Huntsman, and Nick Kaepercolin Jr. is going to mean a prolific offense for Sarasota the next couple of seasons. The defense still leaves a lot to be desired for this bet to be a sure thing, however. Their only two bouts this season were against Berlin and New York, and they let up a combined 37 points against those teams. I don't think this is necessarily a positive thing shy of shutting down Malcolm Savage, who doesn't exactly have a plethora of receiving weapons. If the defense gets it together, this is an Ultimus team in the making.
O/U 5.5
Under
Berlin is led by a rookie QB and is rebuilding on both sides of the ball. They're probably not going to defy the odds like they did last season. I would've felt better about this bet at 6.5, but 5.5 seems fair enough.
O/U 5.5
Under
Similar story to Berlin. Elessar Jones is going to take a season or two before they hit their stride. Until then, expect a lot of short throws and runs from The Stig. This defense might be scary in a few seasons, but that time is certainly not now. I think they'll be competing with Berlin, Austin, and Colorado for the bottom of the S36 standings.
Your mileage may vary:
O/U 11.5
Over
Honolulu may have just gotten absolutely destroyed by Orange County. Before that happened, this would've been a lock for me. It's just hard to say what will happen with this team -- they have the talent to make another Ultimus run, but I'd be lying if I said that OCO loss didn't scare me. This is close to a push for me, but assuming the loss in Week 2 was a fluke Honolulu should be returning to form. I mean they beat Arizona in Week 1.. seriously, what happened?
O/U 9.5
Under
@.simo shared a cool graphic in the ISFL chat yesterday about 7-year rolling win percentages by team.
Turns out OCO is one of the more consistent teams in the league. However, they are also on a steady decline towards the latter half of that 7-year period; across S35 and S36, OCO has proven to be a playoff contender at best and a potential rebuild team at worst.
Goat Tank Jr. is essentially the entire offense right now, for better or worse. Will that hold up for the entire season, especially to get OCO to 10 wins? I'm leaning towards no, but knowing my luck I'll probably be wrong about this.
O/U 8.5
Over
My "Over" pick here is exclusively centered around Deshawne Penne and Jaycee Higgins. SJS' one-two punch of Malone and King is underwhelming and the defense is not as experienced as you might like to bet on a team for 9 wins. But if that offense keeps up, which is a very real possibility, I could see San Jose hitting the over here.
O/U 6.5
Over
I'm probably going to regret this, but it was one of my lowest bets so I'm not too worried. The "Over" selection here is just me admitting that the sim is gonna sim and none of us can do anything about it. My optimism is limited beyond that save for TE82, Jim the Vampire, and Johnny Patey. Beeblebrox, Tommasi, and Saperstein all have positional ROTY potential though, so maybe I'll be right about this pick after all.
O/U 5.5
Over
Colorado might still be in rebuild mode but don't sleep on this offense. LLL is good for 250 yards and 2 TDs just about every game, Sam Squanch isn't done yet, and Mister Hogmally may emerge as one of the leading TEs this season despite being a rookie. Count on this team to put up at least 3 TDs a game. Defense is a huge toss-up though, so that's where you would lose this bet.
O/U 9.5
Push
Chicago is a toss-up for me. They probably hit the over on this but I'm not fully convinced they hit 10 wins just yet, namely because the sim hates Oles Jr. and Chicago has a tendency to lose against Ultimus contenders.
Parlay Pick of the Season:
UNDER + UNDER + OVER
Philly and Berlin make this a bit less risky in my view. OCO is going to be the determining factor on whether this plays out in our favor. Also, this best was made mostly out of solidarity with @negs so do with that information what you will. Get in line for the ride, casino donors!
Huh? Oh, right, so the casino deadline is coming up on Friday, 01 July and only one line changed between Week 1 and Week 2. I didn't see any other media about picks, so figured I'd chime in. If you bet because of me, it's not my fault when you lose. But it is my fault if you win, so please celebrate my praises when you steal all the money from @IceBear32's vault.
For context, I placed my bets prior to Week 1. Only one line changed since then (YKW). I'm still considering changing my bets before the Week 3 deadline, but I'm not sure just yet. I know, great way to lead into a list of recommendations! Anyways, here they are alongside a quick analysis for each.
Definitely taking the casino's money:
O/U 10.5
Over
Jay Cue Jr., Wendell Sailor, Katoni Staggs, Quinton Crash, Billy Stinkwater, Bernie Sanders.. what else are you looking for out of an offense? Arizona just barely lost to the defending champs in Week 1, and while they may not have emerged with a blowout in Week 2 against the Copperheads they are still my team to beat for the season.
Don't let the loss to Honolulu get you shook. Arizona is winning at least 11 games this season.
O/U 5.5
Over
New York still has a long way to go on defense and Malcolm Savage hasn't quite turned out to be the #1 fantasy QB everyone thought he would be. Neither of those should be reason to think New York won't put up 6 wins this season. They are further ahead into their rebuild than some of the other teams this list, and Michelangelo McTurtle is showing a lot of promise as an offensive weapon to take some of the pressure off Savage. If the defense can keep up, which is a big if, I could easily New York winning 7 or 8 games this season.
O/U 8.5
Over
Everyone is sleeping on Yellowknife, so I'm not too worried about the Week 2 loss against what I believe will be one of the top defenses this season. Dante King and Busch Goose are still a force to be reckoned with, and I'd go so far as to say Baltimore is going to sim optimize their way to a playoff berth. The defense is still a force to be reckoned with as well -- into Week 2, they're ranked #4 in points allowed. This is an easy pick.
O/U 6.5
Over
Remember when the Austin Copperheads' Twitter account tried to dunk on the Liberty because they're just a bunch of bells? Yeah, don't worry about that. Philly might be rebuilding but they are still showing a great deal of promise, even behind a lot of young guns on both sides of the ball. I mean for real, their first win was against Yellowknife.. Austin's only win was against the Yeti. By three points. ratio + kekw + Philly is definitely getting 7 wins.
Feeling good about it:
O/U 8.5 (formerly 7.5)
Over
The only line that changed between Week 1 and Week 2. I liked this a lot more at 7.5 but this is on the verge of being a sure thing for me. It just remains to be seen how much the sim hates Dustin Parmelee, which over the last season and change seems to be a lot. Maybe it's not all about TPE after all! I think the defense makes up for any shortcomings here, but I'll be damned if the sim doesn't hate Yellowknife with a passion.
O/U 10.5
Over
The combined power of Carter Knight, John Huntsman, and Nick Kaepercolin Jr. is going to mean a prolific offense for Sarasota the next couple of seasons. The defense still leaves a lot to be desired for this bet to be a sure thing, however. Their only two bouts this season were against Berlin and New York, and they let up a combined 37 points against those teams. I don't think this is necessarily a positive thing shy of shutting down Malcolm Savage, who doesn't exactly have a plethora of receiving weapons. If the defense gets it together, this is an Ultimus team in the making.
O/U 5.5
Under
Berlin is led by a rookie QB and is rebuilding on both sides of the ball. They're probably not going to defy the odds like they did last season. I would've felt better about this bet at 6.5, but 5.5 seems fair enough.
O/U 5.5
Under
Similar story to Berlin. Elessar Jones is going to take a season or two before they hit their stride. Until then, expect a lot of short throws and runs from The Stig. This defense might be scary in a few seasons, but that time is certainly not now. I think they'll be competing with Berlin, Austin, and Colorado for the bottom of the S36 standings.
Your mileage may vary:
O/U 11.5
Over
Honolulu may have just gotten absolutely destroyed by Orange County. Before that happened, this would've been a lock for me. It's just hard to say what will happen with this team -- they have the talent to make another Ultimus run, but I'd be lying if I said that OCO loss didn't scare me. This is close to a push for me, but assuming the loss in Week 2 was a fluke Honolulu should be returning to form. I mean they beat Arizona in Week 1.. seriously, what happened?
O/U 9.5
Under
@.simo shared a cool graphic in the ISFL chat yesterday about 7-year rolling win percentages by team.
Turns out OCO is one of the more consistent teams in the league. However, they are also on a steady decline towards the latter half of that 7-year period; across S35 and S36, OCO has proven to be a playoff contender at best and a potential rebuild team at worst.
Goat Tank Jr. is essentially the entire offense right now, for better or worse. Will that hold up for the entire season, especially to get OCO to 10 wins? I'm leaning towards no, but knowing my luck I'll probably be wrong about this.
O/U 8.5
Over
My "Over" pick here is exclusively centered around Deshawne Penne and Jaycee Higgins. SJS' one-two punch of Malone and King is underwhelming and the defense is not as experienced as you might like to bet on a team for 9 wins. But if that offense keeps up, which is a very real possibility, I could see San Jose hitting the over here.
O/U 6.5
Over
I'm probably going to regret this, but it was one of my lowest bets so I'm not too worried. The "Over" selection here is just me admitting that the sim is gonna sim and none of us can do anything about it. My optimism is limited beyond that save for TE82, Jim the Vampire, and Johnny Patey. Beeblebrox, Tommasi, and Saperstein all have positional ROTY potential though, so maybe I'll be right about this pick after all.
O/U 5.5
Over
Colorado might still be in rebuild mode but don't sleep on this offense. LLL is good for 250 yards and 2 TDs just about every game, Sam Squanch isn't done yet, and Mister Hogmally may emerge as one of the leading TEs this season despite being a rookie. Count on this team to put up at least 3 TDs a game. Defense is a huge toss-up though, so that's where you would lose this bet.
O/U 9.5
Push
Chicago is a toss-up for me. They probably hit the over on this but I'm not fully convinced they hit 10 wins just yet, namely because the sim hates Oles Jr. and Chicago has a tendency to lose against Ultimus contenders.
Parlay Pick of the Season:
UNDER + UNDER + OVER
Philly and Berlin make this a bit less risky in my view. OCO is going to be the determining factor on whether this plays out in our favor. Also, this best was made mostly out of solidarity with @negs so do with that information what you will. Get in line for the ride, casino donors!