11-30-2022, 10:48 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-01-2022, 01:46 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 1 time in total.)
This will not be a traditional mock draft, in that I will not be mocking individual players to individual spots and then telling you to stick those exact fourteen players in the point task. Instead (with a few exceptions) I'm going to go over each team's needs and list a few players that will probably be targets for that team at that draft position. It's going to be sort of a baseline expectation for how I think the draft will go. Use this thing as a guide for your own attempt to mock ... or just copy whatever the next mock draft is that someone who's actually competent puts out.
Pick 1.01
Needs: yes
Expectation: NOT Icebear
Yes, I've read the rulebook. Yes, I know that HON don't have a second rounder. If Luigi Lanikai actually goes 1OA, I'll go outside and eat mushrooms until I find a warp pipe. I can almost guarantee that HON will be trading something away for a second rounder; probably honestly going to be nunccoepi, since HON already own the rights to a second QB from that class, currently racking up stats in the DSFL. Even if they don't manage that, if I were a GM I think I'd rather retire than be forced to pick myself first overall.
Actual Expectation: DT Mario Moloka'i @124715, DT Mo Gago @FTR, DT Johnson Lovehammer @Lowkey, DE Waylen Greene @fnordypsyduck
The consensus is probably that Numbers will go here, but HON picked his last player 1OA as well, and they may be hesitant to do so for a second time. If they decide not to run the Numbers again, they'll be grabbing one of the vaunted new creates of this class, and regardless, all of these players represent some much needed help on the DLine, where HON started a 54 TPE Inactive last season.
Pick 1.02
Needs: QB, DL, LB, RB
Expectation: Any of the DTs above, plus LB Donte Darius @Void_DCXI, LB Maxwell Jacob Friedman @JuOSu
COL need to address their QB situation for once LLL retires, and NCADV RAINN @IsaStarcrossed, a COL lifer, is almost tailormade to fit the role. So why do I have them picking a defender here? Well, I have it on good authority that COL took a look at the 5 total QB creates in this class and are betting they can snag one of their choice in the second round. What's more, rumor has it that Isa is holding out of scouting conversations in order to get drafted by the Yeti once again, so that gamble will almost certainly pay off. In his place, COL will look to fill out some of the gaping holes in their front 7 on D.
Pick 1.03 ()
Needs: DL, LB, QB
Expectation: Any of the 4 remaining frontmen, plus LB Sim Sunigh @SimmiZ
Don't look now, but despite ending the season at 9-7, OCO just finished with the second worst defense in the league, and it's going to get worse before it gets better. Whoever gets taken here will be starting day one, as they try to replace the 2-3 retirements the Otters are about to eat on defense. Note also that OCO GM @"Gbeck765" has a QB Smokin Jay in this class, so while QB is a need for them here, they've already got one locked up.
Pick 1.04
Needs: CB, RB, WR
Expectation: CB Seth Leavitt @voxaroth, RB Frank Dux "Rekkr", S Geralt @"Laser"
In all honesty, I expect some team to trade into this pick (or near this pick) to take Laser, who is an ISFL legend and near guaranteed to max earn. If, however, Chicago keep their own pick, Voxaroth seems like the no-brainer choice to replace one of the Butchers' current CBs (who are, with all due respect, fairly obviously a weak point on that side of the ball). If Voxaroth goes early, Frank Dux is a fine backup choice to await Lalu Muhammad Zohri's slow decline into regression, but practically speaking a trade becomes almost certain.
Pick 1.05
Needs: QB, LB
Expectation: RB Willier Miller @Sebster, or one of the remaining LBs, or Geralt
Don't let the draft card (or the tracker) fool you. Sebster just switched to QB, and is primed to be the heir apparent in Sarasota once Bozo Knoggt hangs up his cleats. The Sailfish don't really have any other gaping holes in their roster, so while they could target someone else in the hopes that Sebster falls into the second round, it's not really worth taking the risk here. A trade back is in the cards here, too, similar to CHI, but NYS represents a hard limit to how far back the Sailfish should be willing to go lest the Silverbacks snipe Sebster away.
Pick 1.06 ()
Needs: yes
Expectation: RB Jake Williams @dude_man
While scouting and doing research for this "mock," two things became abundantly clear: 1) BAL really, really like dude_man, and 2) no other GM is willing to prevent the Hawks from going and getting their guy. Pencil in this replacement for the world's most famous RBBC and move on.
Pick 1.07
Needs: S, CB, DE
Expectation: Any previously mentioned defensive player
The Copperheads have a ludicrously strong offense full of young studs, and are going to use this pick to shore up their defense. Where exactly on their defense is anybody's guess; the DL, LBs, and DBs all feature big earners with little to no backup. I would judge Austin to be the first potential candidate to trade up to pick Laser, but I also wouldn't be surprised if that trade doesn't materialize; it's hardly a priority for AUS.
Pick 1.08
Needs: DL, LB, QB
Expectation: Between DL and LB, the other position from where they went at 1.03
Second verse, same as the first. Defense is a big priority in OCO this draft, where a rebuild is in full swing and offensive players are absolutely not a scarce resource. Note that OCO are not a candidate to trade down for Laser. In fact, the opposite (a trade back) is probably more likely; OCO own BER's 2nd in addition to their own, and would like to offload the latter for value so as to pick Beck with the former.
Pick 1.09
Needs: yes
Expectation: The last of the DL/LB mentioned so far (assuming there are any), plus DE Good Player @Lego, CB Apollo Program @Modern_Duke, WR Dick Grayson @Thiath
Basically any of these picks would make some kind of sense for Baltimore. They're just starting their rebuild, so they're really going to be in Best Player Available mode. Trying fit individual picks into the roster doesn't make a whole sense, with one notable exception: they've already got a young QB, so they're not in the running for any of the ones that will be found in this draft. Other than that, Baltimore will happily take anybody, so long as they earn well.
Pick 1.10 ()
Needs: yes
Expectation: Anybody already mentioned
Shoutout to HON and BAL for starting their rebuilds at the exact same time. Makes writing these descriptions much much easier, because the two teams will be drafting basically exactly the same kind of player. It doesn't really matter what position they play, if they earn well, they're getting drafted, and both of these teams would be happy to have them. If there's only a good chance that they earn well, I mean, they're still getting drafted, and HON and BAL would still be pretty stoked.
Pick 1.11
Needs: QB, RB
Expectation: Rekkr, QB Blaine Falco @Tayjay
If Rekkr still remains at this pick, then NYS have a choice to make: grab Rekkr now, and hope that Tayjay falls all the way through the relatively barren second round until the Silverbacks get to pick again, or take Tayjay now at the cost of watching Rekkr go off to play for someone else. Not an easy choice to make. Were I in their shoes, I think I'd guarantee myself the QB now, rather than hoping Tayjay wheels. Of course, if Rekkr goes earlier than this, then NYS slam pick their QB of the future and everybody moves on.
Pick 1.12
Needs: DL, DB
Expectation: Modern_Duke, Lego, SimmiZ
YKW are in a fantastic position (even after not quite making it the distance in the playoffs), where any pick they make is going to be for depth and depth alone. The Wraiths have no urgent needs that they have to address in the draft, although the indication is that they'll probably end up with a defender. Here it really comes down to the preference of the war room: who scouted better, who does the team like more, that sort of thing. If you're not in their war room, I personally recommend spinning the wheel. Maybe blindfolded darts? Pick one and don't stress over it.
Pick 1.13/1.14 ()
Needs: yes
Expectation: Your personal favorite dark horse prospect
HON pop up with their second late first round draft pick (this time courtesy of Berlin, who, at the time of writing, are yet to play in the Ultimus and whose pick, therefore, isn't quite locked down). Much like a few picks ago, HON are going to be looking for pretty much anyone they can get who will be a good foundational piece for their upcoming rebuild. If you have a prospect in mind that hasn't been listed already but you think has all the makings of a first rounder, put them in here. If they go in the first round, they'll be going at 13 (or 14) to the Hahalua.
Pick 1.13/1.14
Needs: QB
Expectation: QB Donovan Winters @zeagle1
Whether or not Arizona win back to back titles and shatter their curse beyond all repair or not, they'll be picking all the way down here. I expect Zeagle (an AZ legend) to go here, mostly because I don't think NYS will go for the snipe over just picking Tayjay. If I'm wrong though, they should both still be first rounders, so not much is lost. In any case, the Outlaws need a Quarterback, and they'll be happy to find one at the tail end of the first.
"That's a nice long explanation of what exactly you think is going to happen, but who do you actually have as your first rounders?"
I said I wasn't just going to give you a list you could plug into the PT and be done with
"Please"
fine
Numbers
FTR
fnordypsyduck
voxaroth
Sebster
dude_man
Laser
Void
JuOSu
Lowkey
Tayjay
SimmiZ
Modern_Duke
zeagle
Pick 1.01
Needs: yes
Expectation: NOT Icebear
Yes, I've read the rulebook. Yes, I know that HON don't have a second rounder. If Luigi Lanikai actually goes 1OA, I'll go outside and eat mushrooms until I find a warp pipe. I can almost guarantee that HON will be trading something away for a second rounder; probably honestly going to be nunccoepi, since HON already own the rights to a second QB from that class, currently racking up stats in the DSFL. Even if they don't manage that, if I were a GM I think I'd rather retire than be forced to pick myself first overall.
Actual Expectation: DT Mario Moloka'i @124715, DT Mo Gago @FTR, DT Johnson Lovehammer @Lowkey, DE Waylen Greene @fnordypsyduck
The consensus is probably that Numbers will go here, but HON picked his last player 1OA as well, and they may be hesitant to do so for a second time. If they decide not to run the Numbers again, they'll be grabbing one of the vaunted new creates of this class, and regardless, all of these players represent some much needed help on the DLine, where HON started a 54 TPE Inactive last season.
Pick 1.02
Needs: QB, DL, LB, RB
Expectation: Any of the DTs above, plus LB Donte Darius @Void_DCXI, LB Maxwell Jacob Friedman @JuOSu
COL need to address their QB situation for once LLL retires, and NCADV RAINN @IsaStarcrossed, a COL lifer, is almost tailormade to fit the role. So why do I have them picking a defender here? Well, I have it on good authority that COL took a look at the 5 total QB creates in this class and are betting they can snag one of their choice in the second round. What's more, rumor has it that Isa is holding out of scouting conversations in order to get drafted by the Yeti once again, so that gamble will almost certainly pay off. In his place, COL will look to fill out some of the gaping holes in their front 7 on D.
Pick 1.03 ()
Needs: DL, LB, QB
Expectation: Any of the 4 remaining frontmen, plus LB Sim Sunigh @SimmiZ
Don't look now, but despite ending the season at 9-7, OCO just finished with the second worst defense in the league, and it's going to get worse before it gets better. Whoever gets taken here will be starting day one, as they try to replace the 2-3 retirements the Otters are about to eat on defense. Note also that OCO GM @"Gbeck765" has a QB Smokin Jay in this class, so while QB is a need for them here, they've already got one locked up.
Pick 1.04
Needs: CB, RB, WR
Expectation: CB Seth Leavitt @voxaroth, RB Frank Dux "Rekkr", S Geralt @"Laser"
In all honesty, I expect some team to trade into this pick (or near this pick) to take Laser, who is an ISFL legend and near guaranteed to max earn. If, however, Chicago keep their own pick, Voxaroth seems like the no-brainer choice to replace one of the Butchers' current CBs (who are, with all due respect, fairly obviously a weak point on that side of the ball). If Voxaroth goes early, Frank Dux is a fine backup choice to await Lalu Muhammad Zohri's slow decline into regression, but practically speaking a trade becomes almost certain.
Pick 1.05
Needs: QB, LB
Expectation: RB Willier Miller @Sebster, or one of the remaining LBs, or Geralt
Don't let the draft card (or the tracker) fool you. Sebster just switched to QB, and is primed to be the heir apparent in Sarasota once Bozo Knoggt hangs up his cleats. The Sailfish don't really have any other gaping holes in their roster, so while they could target someone else in the hopes that Sebster falls into the second round, it's not really worth taking the risk here. A trade back is in the cards here, too, similar to CHI, but NYS represents a hard limit to how far back the Sailfish should be willing to go lest the Silverbacks snipe Sebster away.
Pick 1.06 ()
Needs: yes
Expectation: RB Jake Williams @dude_man
While scouting and doing research for this "mock," two things became abundantly clear: 1) BAL really, really like dude_man, and 2) no other GM is willing to prevent the Hawks from going and getting their guy. Pencil in this replacement for the world's most famous RBBC and move on.
Pick 1.07
Needs: S, CB, DE
Expectation: Any previously mentioned defensive player
The Copperheads have a ludicrously strong offense full of young studs, and are going to use this pick to shore up their defense. Where exactly on their defense is anybody's guess; the DL, LBs, and DBs all feature big earners with little to no backup. I would judge Austin to be the first potential candidate to trade up to pick Laser, but I also wouldn't be surprised if that trade doesn't materialize; it's hardly a priority for AUS.
Pick 1.08
Needs: DL, LB, QB
Expectation: Between DL and LB, the other position from where they went at 1.03
Second verse, same as the first. Defense is a big priority in OCO this draft, where a rebuild is in full swing and offensive players are absolutely not a scarce resource. Note that OCO are not a candidate to trade down for Laser. In fact, the opposite (a trade back) is probably more likely; OCO own BER's 2nd in addition to their own, and would like to offload the latter for value so as to pick Beck with the former.
Pick 1.09
Needs: yes
Expectation: The last of the DL/LB mentioned so far (assuming there are any), plus DE Good Player @Lego, CB Apollo Program @Modern_Duke, WR Dick Grayson @Thiath
Basically any of these picks would make some kind of sense for Baltimore. They're just starting their rebuild, so they're really going to be in Best Player Available mode. Trying fit individual picks into the roster doesn't make a whole sense, with one notable exception: they've already got a young QB, so they're not in the running for any of the ones that will be found in this draft. Other than that, Baltimore will happily take anybody, so long as they earn well.
Pick 1.10 ()
Needs: yes
Expectation: Anybody already mentioned
Shoutout to HON and BAL for starting their rebuilds at the exact same time. Makes writing these descriptions much much easier, because the two teams will be drafting basically exactly the same kind of player. It doesn't really matter what position they play, if they earn well, they're getting drafted, and both of these teams would be happy to have them. If there's only a good chance that they earn well, I mean, they're still getting drafted, and HON and BAL would still be pretty stoked.
Pick 1.11
Needs: QB, RB
Expectation: Rekkr, QB Blaine Falco @Tayjay
If Rekkr still remains at this pick, then NYS have a choice to make: grab Rekkr now, and hope that Tayjay falls all the way through the relatively barren second round until the Silverbacks get to pick again, or take Tayjay now at the cost of watching Rekkr go off to play for someone else. Not an easy choice to make. Were I in their shoes, I think I'd guarantee myself the QB now, rather than hoping Tayjay wheels. Of course, if Rekkr goes earlier than this, then NYS slam pick their QB of the future and everybody moves on.
Pick 1.12
Needs: DL, DB
Expectation: Modern_Duke, Lego, SimmiZ
YKW are in a fantastic position (even after not quite making it the distance in the playoffs), where any pick they make is going to be for depth and depth alone. The Wraiths have no urgent needs that they have to address in the draft, although the indication is that they'll probably end up with a defender. Here it really comes down to the preference of the war room: who scouted better, who does the team like more, that sort of thing. If you're not in their war room, I personally recommend spinning the wheel. Maybe blindfolded darts? Pick one and don't stress over it.
Pick 1.13/1.14 ()
Needs: yes
Expectation: Your personal favorite dark horse prospect
HON pop up with their second late first round draft pick (this time courtesy of Berlin, who, at the time of writing, are yet to play in the Ultimus and whose pick, therefore, isn't quite locked down). Much like a few picks ago, HON are going to be looking for pretty much anyone they can get who will be a good foundational piece for their upcoming rebuild. If you have a prospect in mind that hasn't been listed already but you think has all the makings of a first rounder, put them in here. If they go in the first round, they'll be going at 13 (or 14) to the Hahalua.
Pick 1.13/1.14
Needs: QB
Expectation: QB Donovan Winters @zeagle1
Whether or not Arizona win back to back titles and shatter their curse beyond all repair or not, they'll be picking all the way down here. I expect Zeagle (an AZ legend) to go here, mostly because I don't think NYS will go for the snipe over just picking Tayjay. If I'm wrong though, they should both still be first rounders, so not much is lost. In any case, the Outlaws need a Quarterback, and they'll be happy to find one at the tail end of the first.
"That's a nice long explanation of what exactly you think is going to happen, but who do you actually have as your first rounders?"
I said I wasn't just going to give you a list you could plug into the PT and be done with
"Please"
fine
Numbers
FTR
fnordypsyduck
voxaroth
Sebster
dude_man
Laser
Void
JuOSu
Lowkey
Tayjay
SimmiZ
Modern_Duke
zeagle