12-21-2022, 06:33 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-22-2022, 11:31 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 4 times in total.)
So most of you who do ISFL fantasy football probably saw my fantasy primer over the weekend. In it, I made several assumptions about depth charts and playbooks that would affect fantasy rankings. Now that the week 1 sim file is out, I figured I'd go through the file and see how my assumptions lined up with what the teams are actually doing, and what that means for the approaching week 2 waiver wire. Before you ask, no, I will not be doing this every week. I just wanted to do a quick sanity check of how my assumptions held up with the start of the regular season.
Arizona Outlaws RBs: Jay Cue Jr, Danny Nedelko
Just at a surface level, week 1 was not kind to the legendary Jay Cue Jr. Not only did Danny Nedelko out carry Cue 22 to 8, but Nedelko added 3 TDs to Cue's 0. However, all is not lost for Jay Cue Jr truthers. Digging into the sim file, Cue is actually listed as the RB1 in all formations. Now, Nedelko is listed as the 3rd down back and the Outlaws do have "Backfield by Committee" checked - both of which will limit Cue's effectiveness and combined might very well give Nedelko the bigger workload overall - but there's a very good chance week 1 was an extreme outlier. The usage of the two RBs should even out in future weeks. Cue isn't going to match his production from previous seasons, but don't give up hope if you drafted him.
Austin Copperheads RBs: Ozamataz Buckshank, Jeff Newman
This was never expected to be the highest scoring backfield out there (which was a pretty accurate prediction, at least for week 1), but having Buckshank and Newman split carries right down the middle wasn't ideal for anyone. Buckshank is listed as the RB1 in every formation, but Austin does have the "Backfield by Committee" option on so Newman should continue to see plenty of work. Production like this should be pretty typical for the pair moving forward.
Baltimore Hawks RBs: Dante King, Busch Goose, Jake Williams
We knew this backfield was going to be weird from the get go, but this is even beyond what I was expecting. First of all, Busch Goose and Jake Williams share lead RB duties. Shouldn't be too surprising after seeing the pair lead the team in carries (for the rare occasion when the Hawks actually ran the ball). Where things get interesting is how Dante King fits into all this. You see, King isn't actually listed in the RB depth chart. Instead, he's listed as the WR2. Did you notice how few rush attempts the Hawks had in week 1? Yeah, that wasn't just because of the blowout. Turns out Baltimore's playbook indicates a high passing volume offense. Lining up as a nearly every down receiver, King should see a surprising number of targets. Furthermore, King is actually listed as the 3rd down back, and Baltimore's playbook is set to feature more plays with RB receiving routes, so he sees a fair number of targets out of the backfield as well. Long story short, Goose and Williams are probably pretty close to useless this season from a fantasy perspective. King, however, could actually be a pretty solid asset with the hPPR scoring.
Chicago Butchers RBs: Lalu Muhammad Zohri, Frank Dux
Luckily this was one assumption I pretty much nailed on the head. Zohri owns this backfield while Dux operates as the WR3. I wouldn't expect an 8/88/1 line from the rookie RB every week, but he should be perfectly viable as a desperation flex.
New Orleans Second Line RBs: The Stig, Armor Queen
You hear that? That's the sound of dozens of Stig owners crying in pain as they realize the reign of The Stig is short lived. Yes, as you've probably heard from your league's Stig owner by now, NOLA called up Armor Queen and is running her in a committee backfield with Stig. It is worth noting that Stig is at least listed as the 3rd down back and is the RB1 in every formation, but with the committee backfield option on he simply won't get the kind of volume that you're looking for with that top 2 pick. Better hope for some spike weeks like Danny Nedelko.
Arizona Outlaws WRs: Louis Blondin, "Captain" Billy Stinkwater, Kotoni Staggs
Fortunately, this one actually turned out exactly as expected. The three receivers are listed in the depth chart in the order of their Week 1 TPE totals for all formations. Assuming this continues to be the case moving forward, Blondin should lead the group in targets, Stinkwater should see a respectable number of targets as the WR2, and Staggs will likely fill the high efficiency WR3 deep threat role (case in point, 18.7 YPC and a TD week 1). Depending on total volume, I wouldn't be surprised if Staggs outperforms Stinkwater purely based on the deep threat role, but overall this should play out pretty much as predicted so long as the depth chart doesn't change.
Austin Copperheads WRs: Zaphod Beeblebrox, Delores Bickerman, Johnny Patey
This one gets a bit weird, so let's get the simple part out of the way; Patey is the WR3. He is listed behind Beeblebrox and Bickerman in every formation. That doesn't mean he won't produce - as noted above, WR3 in a strong passing attack tends to rack up high YPC numbers along with a fair number of TDs - but temper expectations on volume. As for Beeblebrox and Bickerman, it's probably fair to say that the pair is essentially sharing top dog duties. Bickerman is listed as the WR1 in the most common passing formations, but Beeblebrox is listed as the primary receiver despite being the WR2 on the depth chart. The end result should be a pretty even split of targets and production. Normally this would indicate that neither will be an elite fantasy asset, but if Austin continues to lead the league in pass attempts like previous seasons then there should be enough volume to feed both.
Baltimore Hawks WRs: Shane Turnball
Originally I didn't mention any Baltimore WRs in my fantasy preview because, well... they aren't good and the Hawks were expected to lean on their RBs. However, in light of seeing how Baltimore intends to pass quite a bit this season, the WRs are worth revisiting. Or at least one is. Ultimately Shane Turnball is still a low TPE receiver getting targets from a low TPE QB, but Turnball is the clear WR1 in this offense, being named the WR1 in all formations along with being listed as the primary receiver. I still don't expect this offense to be good, but Turnball is in a position to potentially see enough volume to be fantasy viable. Could be a good waiver target.
Berlin Fire Salamanders WRs: Zayne Dangle, Octavio Perez
Berlin appears to be just as pass focused as anticipated looking at the playbook, but what jumped out at me was the fact that Perez, not Dangle, is listed as the WR1 in all formations. In a situation very reminiscent of Austin's WR corps, Dangle is listed as the primary receiver from the WR2 slot in all formations. Dangle takes a small hit here from not being the WR1, but the purported volume of the Fire Salamander passing offense should keep him afloat. The more interesting note to make is that this pretty well solidifies Perez as a premier fantasy asset. So long as Berlin isn't facing a bloodthirsty Yellowknife defense seeking revenge every week, both receivers will be excellent.
Cape Town Crash WRs: Erwin Kemp, Escanor Sama, Derrick Prince
Woo boy, we got ourselves a doozy here. All three of these receivers take turns being slotted in as the WR1, WR2, WR3, and even TE2 in various formations. Kemp is usually the WR1, but not always. Furthermore, Sama is actually listed as the Primary Receiver. Obviously this isn't great for Kemp, though just being the WR1 more often than not should still at least make him decent. Being listed as the primary receiver should help Sama out, but rotating between the WR2 and WR3 roles isn't going to help him much. Prince is the only one I wouldn't count on for any sort of consistent fantasy production, but who knows, maybe this mess will start to sort itself out as the CTC receivers separate themselves in TPE.
New Orleans Second Line WRs: Rockbot Rockbo
You remember how I mentioned in my preview that Rockbo might have a shot at taking over WR1 duties? Yeah, well, he did that and then some. Rockbo is the WR1 in every formation and is listed as the primary receiver. On top of that, NOLA's playbook is surprisingly pass heavy this season on the back of QB Elessar Jones' ascension to the ranks of elite QBs (at least in terms of TPE). Don't let the poor week 1 performance fool you. Rockbo notched a team leading 13 targets, and he's more likely to catch more of those as the season progresses. If you don't like your WR2 or Flex production, this could be a sneaky waiver pickup.
Orange County Otters WRs: President Camacho, Thomas Robinson
Turns out we don't even have to wait for Robinson to overtake Camacho in TPE to earn the lead receiver role. The younger receiver has taken that job away out of the gate, listed as the WR1 in almost every formation and as the primary receiver. This is still a low volume passing attack, so don't expect anything great out of Robinson either, but you can safely drop Camacho if you grabbed him as a desperation flex.
Sarasota Sailfish WRs: Sconnie McSix, Nick Kaepercolin Jr
Just popping in to note that the rumor mill was correct about McSix and Kaepercolin swapping roles this season. McSix is listed as the WR1 in all formations and is the primary receiver. Maybe don't expect 3 TDs every game, but should be an elite fantasy option.
Sarasota Sailfish OL: Troy Barnes, Stumpy Jones
On the surface, it would appear as though the preseason assumption of Troy Barnes taking the torch from Stumpy Jones came true. However, that's not quite how the depth chart panned out. Sure, Barnes had an incredible week 1 performance... at center! That's right, Barnes somehow notched 17 pancakes from the center position while Stumpy played from his typical LT spot. Sarasota isn't going to play Baltimore every week. Don't reach for Barnes just because of the one performance.
3-4/3-3-5 Defensive Linemen Shakeup
Interestingly, Raphael McTurtle is actually lining up at RE instead of NT in Arizona's 3-4 and 3-3-5 defensive alignments. After checking with last season's depth charts, it turns out this was the case last season as well. This does kinda refute my original assumption that the NT is king in 3-4 alignments, instead promoting the idea that just being the high TPE player among low TPE players along a 3-4 defensive line is good. While digging into this, I also noticed that the other elite DT, Christian Marciano, flips between NT and RE in Cape Town's 3-4/3-3-5 defensive alignments. This doesn't really hurt my view of McTurtle or Marciano, but it does raise my expectations for 3-4 DEs such as Daron Arnold, Nathan Explosion, and Joey Din as being a DE in a 3-4 alignment doesn't seem to be a penalty like I originally assumed. It does somewhat hurt my view of Fire Salamanders DT Nathan Meagher, though, as his place in my rankings was largely being propped up by being the NT in a 3-4 alignment.
Cape Town Crash LBs: Barry Badman, Dominos Pizzaman, Doc Fireball
In my projections, I assumed Badman would be the main OLB in Cape Town given his TPE lead. However, Badman is exclusively lining up at MLB. The OLBs are Fireball (not surprising, looking at week 1 stats) and Pizzaman. I'm not sure if Fireball will continue to vastly outperform Pizzaman, but those are probably the better two LBs to own in Cape Town than Badman. Of course, whether any of these options will reliably produce fantasy points is questionable, but worth mentioning all the same.
Yellowknife Wraiths LBs: Kahn Cussion, Zephyr Greywolf, Jack McPherson
The assumption coming into this season was that Cussion would lead this LB corps with Greywolf hitting regression and McPherson not quite at peak. However, it turns out that Cussion and McPherson are rotating at MLB while Greywolf remains at OLB full time. Obviously this is an upgrade for Greywolf and downgrade for Cussion, though Cussion might still salvage a decent fantasy season just on the strength of his TPE. Still, not what you would hope for with regard to fantasy.
Arizona Outlaws DBs: Spottie O'Dopaliscious, Mark Goodhead
In my preview, I assumed Spottie would take over as the CB1 based on TPE differential after Mark Goodhead's regression. However, the sim file revealed that Goodhead is, in fact, still listed as the CB1 in Arizona. This flips my original assumption on its head. With Goodhead lining up as CB1, it would make sense that Goodhead is the CB to own in Arizona, not Spottie. Not that Spottie can't be decent - a 1200 TPE CB isn't likely to perform poorly - but Spottie would have to put up an outlier elite season to match Goodhead's expected fantasy output as the CB1.
Chicago Butchers DBs: Dee Walt, Quendyn Quarterstorm
Chicago's DB rotation is... interesting. Dee Walt is playing CB1 in some formations, but Quendyn Quarterstorm is playing CB1 in others. The actual CBs are rotating as the nickel corners. Oh, and there's a LB playing strong safety sometimes. Bottom line is don't expect anything fantasy viable from this mess.
Update: I have been informed that this bizarre situation was indeed the result of a sim error. Quarterstorm should be the CB1 in all formations. This could very well make Quarterstorm a viable CB1 for fantasy purposes. Something to keep an eye on.
Arizona Outlaws RBs: Jay Cue Jr, Danny Nedelko
Just at a surface level, week 1 was not kind to the legendary Jay Cue Jr. Not only did Danny Nedelko out carry Cue 22 to 8, but Nedelko added 3 TDs to Cue's 0. However, all is not lost for Jay Cue Jr truthers. Digging into the sim file, Cue is actually listed as the RB1 in all formations. Now, Nedelko is listed as the 3rd down back and the Outlaws do have "Backfield by Committee" checked - both of which will limit Cue's effectiveness and combined might very well give Nedelko the bigger workload overall - but there's a very good chance week 1 was an extreme outlier. The usage of the two RBs should even out in future weeks. Cue isn't going to match his production from previous seasons, but don't give up hope if you drafted him.
Austin Copperheads RBs: Ozamataz Buckshank, Jeff Newman
This was never expected to be the highest scoring backfield out there (which was a pretty accurate prediction, at least for week 1), but having Buckshank and Newman split carries right down the middle wasn't ideal for anyone. Buckshank is listed as the RB1 in every formation, but Austin does have the "Backfield by Committee" option on so Newman should continue to see plenty of work. Production like this should be pretty typical for the pair moving forward.
Baltimore Hawks RBs: Dante King, Busch Goose, Jake Williams
We knew this backfield was going to be weird from the get go, but this is even beyond what I was expecting. First of all, Busch Goose and Jake Williams share lead RB duties. Shouldn't be too surprising after seeing the pair lead the team in carries (for the rare occasion when the Hawks actually ran the ball). Where things get interesting is how Dante King fits into all this. You see, King isn't actually listed in the RB depth chart. Instead, he's listed as the WR2. Did you notice how few rush attempts the Hawks had in week 1? Yeah, that wasn't just because of the blowout. Turns out Baltimore's playbook indicates a high passing volume offense. Lining up as a nearly every down receiver, King should see a surprising number of targets. Furthermore, King is actually listed as the 3rd down back, and Baltimore's playbook is set to feature more plays with RB receiving routes, so he sees a fair number of targets out of the backfield as well. Long story short, Goose and Williams are probably pretty close to useless this season from a fantasy perspective. King, however, could actually be a pretty solid asset with the hPPR scoring.
Chicago Butchers RBs: Lalu Muhammad Zohri, Frank Dux
Luckily this was one assumption I pretty much nailed on the head. Zohri owns this backfield while Dux operates as the WR3. I wouldn't expect an 8/88/1 line from the rookie RB every week, but he should be perfectly viable as a desperation flex.
New Orleans Second Line RBs: The Stig, Armor Queen
You hear that? That's the sound of dozens of Stig owners crying in pain as they realize the reign of The Stig is short lived. Yes, as you've probably heard from your league's Stig owner by now, NOLA called up Armor Queen and is running her in a committee backfield with Stig. It is worth noting that Stig is at least listed as the 3rd down back and is the RB1 in every formation, but with the committee backfield option on he simply won't get the kind of volume that you're looking for with that top 2 pick. Better hope for some spike weeks like Danny Nedelko.
Arizona Outlaws WRs: Louis Blondin, "Captain" Billy Stinkwater, Kotoni Staggs
Fortunately, this one actually turned out exactly as expected. The three receivers are listed in the depth chart in the order of their Week 1 TPE totals for all formations. Assuming this continues to be the case moving forward, Blondin should lead the group in targets, Stinkwater should see a respectable number of targets as the WR2, and Staggs will likely fill the high efficiency WR3 deep threat role (case in point, 18.7 YPC and a TD week 1). Depending on total volume, I wouldn't be surprised if Staggs outperforms Stinkwater purely based on the deep threat role, but overall this should play out pretty much as predicted so long as the depth chart doesn't change.
Austin Copperheads WRs: Zaphod Beeblebrox, Delores Bickerman, Johnny Patey
This one gets a bit weird, so let's get the simple part out of the way; Patey is the WR3. He is listed behind Beeblebrox and Bickerman in every formation. That doesn't mean he won't produce - as noted above, WR3 in a strong passing attack tends to rack up high YPC numbers along with a fair number of TDs - but temper expectations on volume. As for Beeblebrox and Bickerman, it's probably fair to say that the pair is essentially sharing top dog duties. Bickerman is listed as the WR1 in the most common passing formations, but Beeblebrox is listed as the primary receiver despite being the WR2 on the depth chart. The end result should be a pretty even split of targets and production. Normally this would indicate that neither will be an elite fantasy asset, but if Austin continues to lead the league in pass attempts like previous seasons then there should be enough volume to feed both.
Baltimore Hawks WRs: Shane Turnball
Originally I didn't mention any Baltimore WRs in my fantasy preview because, well... they aren't good and the Hawks were expected to lean on their RBs. However, in light of seeing how Baltimore intends to pass quite a bit this season, the WRs are worth revisiting. Or at least one is. Ultimately Shane Turnball is still a low TPE receiver getting targets from a low TPE QB, but Turnball is the clear WR1 in this offense, being named the WR1 in all formations along with being listed as the primary receiver. I still don't expect this offense to be good, but Turnball is in a position to potentially see enough volume to be fantasy viable. Could be a good waiver target.
Berlin Fire Salamanders WRs: Zayne Dangle, Octavio Perez
Berlin appears to be just as pass focused as anticipated looking at the playbook, but what jumped out at me was the fact that Perez, not Dangle, is listed as the WR1 in all formations. In a situation very reminiscent of Austin's WR corps, Dangle is listed as the primary receiver from the WR2 slot in all formations. Dangle takes a small hit here from not being the WR1, but the purported volume of the Fire Salamander passing offense should keep him afloat. The more interesting note to make is that this pretty well solidifies Perez as a premier fantasy asset. So long as Berlin isn't facing a bloodthirsty Yellowknife defense seeking revenge every week, both receivers will be excellent.
Cape Town Crash WRs: Erwin Kemp, Escanor Sama, Derrick Prince
Woo boy, we got ourselves a doozy here. All three of these receivers take turns being slotted in as the WR1, WR2, WR3, and even TE2 in various formations. Kemp is usually the WR1, but not always. Furthermore, Sama is actually listed as the Primary Receiver. Obviously this isn't great for Kemp, though just being the WR1 more often than not should still at least make him decent. Being listed as the primary receiver should help Sama out, but rotating between the WR2 and WR3 roles isn't going to help him much. Prince is the only one I wouldn't count on for any sort of consistent fantasy production, but who knows, maybe this mess will start to sort itself out as the CTC receivers separate themselves in TPE.
New Orleans Second Line WRs: Rockbot Rockbo
You remember how I mentioned in my preview that Rockbo might have a shot at taking over WR1 duties? Yeah, well, he did that and then some. Rockbo is the WR1 in every formation and is listed as the primary receiver. On top of that, NOLA's playbook is surprisingly pass heavy this season on the back of QB Elessar Jones' ascension to the ranks of elite QBs (at least in terms of TPE). Don't let the poor week 1 performance fool you. Rockbo notched a team leading 13 targets, and he's more likely to catch more of those as the season progresses. If you don't like your WR2 or Flex production, this could be a sneaky waiver pickup.
Orange County Otters WRs: President Camacho, Thomas Robinson
Turns out we don't even have to wait for Robinson to overtake Camacho in TPE to earn the lead receiver role. The younger receiver has taken that job away out of the gate, listed as the WR1 in almost every formation and as the primary receiver. This is still a low volume passing attack, so don't expect anything great out of Robinson either, but you can safely drop Camacho if you grabbed him as a desperation flex.
Sarasota Sailfish WRs: Sconnie McSix, Nick Kaepercolin Jr
Just popping in to note that the rumor mill was correct about McSix and Kaepercolin swapping roles this season. McSix is listed as the WR1 in all formations and is the primary receiver. Maybe don't expect 3 TDs every game, but should be an elite fantasy option.
Sarasota Sailfish OL: Troy Barnes, Stumpy Jones
On the surface, it would appear as though the preseason assumption of Troy Barnes taking the torch from Stumpy Jones came true. However, that's not quite how the depth chart panned out. Sure, Barnes had an incredible week 1 performance... at center! That's right, Barnes somehow notched 17 pancakes from the center position while Stumpy played from his typical LT spot. Sarasota isn't going to play Baltimore every week. Don't reach for Barnes just because of the one performance.
3-4/3-3-5 Defensive Linemen Shakeup
Interestingly, Raphael McTurtle is actually lining up at RE instead of NT in Arizona's 3-4 and 3-3-5 defensive alignments. After checking with last season's depth charts, it turns out this was the case last season as well. This does kinda refute my original assumption that the NT is king in 3-4 alignments, instead promoting the idea that just being the high TPE player among low TPE players along a 3-4 defensive line is good. While digging into this, I also noticed that the other elite DT, Christian Marciano, flips between NT and RE in Cape Town's 3-4/3-3-5 defensive alignments. This doesn't really hurt my view of McTurtle or Marciano, but it does raise my expectations for 3-4 DEs such as Daron Arnold, Nathan Explosion, and Joey Din as being a DE in a 3-4 alignment doesn't seem to be a penalty like I originally assumed. It does somewhat hurt my view of Fire Salamanders DT Nathan Meagher, though, as his place in my rankings was largely being propped up by being the NT in a 3-4 alignment.
Cape Town Crash LBs: Barry Badman, Dominos Pizzaman, Doc Fireball
In my projections, I assumed Badman would be the main OLB in Cape Town given his TPE lead. However, Badman is exclusively lining up at MLB. The OLBs are Fireball (not surprising, looking at week 1 stats) and Pizzaman. I'm not sure if Fireball will continue to vastly outperform Pizzaman, but those are probably the better two LBs to own in Cape Town than Badman. Of course, whether any of these options will reliably produce fantasy points is questionable, but worth mentioning all the same.
Yellowknife Wraiths LBs: Kahn Cussion, Zephyr Greywolf, Jack McPherson
The assumption coming into this season was that Cussion would lead this LB corps with Greywolf hitting regression and McPherson not quite at peak. However, it turns out that Cussion and McPherson are rotating at MLB while Greywolf remains at OLB full time. Obviously this is an upgrade for Greywolf and downgrade for Cussion, though Cussion might still salvage a decent fantasy season just on the strength of his TPE. Still, not what you would hope for with regard to fantasy.
Arizona Outlaws DBs: Spottie O'Dopaliscious, Mark Goodhead
In my preview, I assumed Spottie would take over as the CB1 based on TPE differential after Mark Goodhead's regression. However, the sim file revealed that Goodhead is, in fact, still listed as the CB1 in Arizona. This flips my original assumption on its head. With Goodhead lining up as CB1, it would make sense that Goodhead is the CB to own in Arizona, not Spottie. Not that Spottie can't be decent - a 1200 TPE CB isn't likely to perform poorly - but Spottie would have to put up an outlier elite season to match Goodhead's expected fantasy output as the CB1.
Chicago Butchers DBs: Dee Walt, Quendyn Quarterstorm
Chicago's DB rotation is... interesting. Dee Walt is playing CB1 in some formations, but Quendyn Quarterstorm is playing CB1 in others. The actual CBs are rotating as the nickel corners. Oh, and there's a LB playing strong safety sometimes. Bottom line is don't expect anything fantasy viable from this mess.
Update: I have been informed that this bizarre situation was indeed the result of a sim error. Quarterstorm should be the CB1 in all formations. This could very well make Quarterstorm a viable CB1 for fantasy purposes. Something to keep an eye on.