03-03-2023, 04:42 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-21-2023, 01:11 AM by dude_man. Edited 3 times in total.)
Hello everyone! In this analysis I will be looking at how the most recent DSFL draft went. I will be focusing solely on the TPE gained by each team, and the potential TPE each team could have gained, based on what we are seeing at the 2 week mark.
Each pick has the following information:
Total TPE: The TPE of the player drafted
TPE Missed: The difference between the TPE of the player drafted, and the highest TPE of all remaining players. For example, at pick 1 Mary Marie was taken with a current TPE of 175, but at the time there was Loose Cannon available with a current TPE of 214. This gives pick 1 a TPE missed of 39 (214-175).
TPE Missed by Position: This is the same as TPE missed, but it is focused exclusively by position, so the Mary Marie pick has a TPE missed by Position of 0 as she has the highest TPE of all safeties taken at the time. A pick like the Artemis Entreri pick (pick 6, 174 TPE, WR) has a TPE missed by position of 22 b/c there was Oliver Tolliver available (Pick 9, 196 TPE, WR).
Times Passed Over By Position: This is the number of times another player in the same position was taken instead of this player. For example the Liath Squirrel pick (Pick 54, 172 TPE, LB) has a times passed over of 6, as there were 6 Linebackers taken before pick 54 with less than 172 TPE. The higher the number here, the more a player was undervalued during the draft.
Delta to average for the round: this is comparing the TPE of the pick to the average for the round. For example the Jumbo Edward pick (Pick 25, TPE 179, Round 3) has a comparison of +44.5 as the average TPE in round 3 was 157.5, and this pick was 44.5 above. A negative value means this pick was below average for the round. The higher the number here, the more of a “steal” I consider the player to be.
For each team I will include these different statistics:
Total TPE gained: This is the sum of all of the TPE of players drafted by the team.
Total TPE missed: This is the Sum of the TPE missed of all the picks made by a team in the recent draft.
Total TPE missed by position: This is the Sum of the TPE missed by position of all the picks made by a team in the recent draft.
Most passed over Player: this is the player who was passed over the most of all the players drafted by the team.
Biggest steal: This is the player who had the biggest Delta to average for the round of all the players drafted by the team.
Total Delta to average: This is the sum of all of the Deltas to average for round for all of the players drafted by the team
All of these stats are available for every pick of the entire draft in this sheet I built here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing.
I will put all the team stats below:
![[Image: N4JH1Uq.png]](https://i.imgur.com/N4JH1Uq.png)
By looking at this table we can see a number of things:
The Portland Pythons had the most efficient draft by far, missing less than 500 TPE total amongst all positions, missing only 83 picks within their position, gaining the most TPE, and having the biggest delta between their picks and the average taken in the round with a whopping 138 TPE extra vs the average through the entire draft.
We can also see that the Dallas Birddogs had the least efficient draft on average, despite having the single best pick of the draft in Wolfie McDummy Jr. who was the most passed over player and had the biggest delta to average for their round.
Next I will show the summary of data by round of the draft:
![[Image: kKSRMqD.png]](https://i.imgur.com/kKSRMqD.png)
In this we can see the biggest steal of each round and how big of a steal they were. What’s surprising to me is how there were great steals available in every round of the draft, all the way down to round 12 with a player 30 TPE above the average for the round in every round. There was, however, a sharp dropoff at round 13-15 with all the players being mostly inactive and sitting at basically 50 TPE exactly.
We can also see the scouters generally did quite a great job; most rounds had a lower average TPE than the preceding round (so the players in round 1 were better than the players taken in round 2, all the way down), with 2 small exceptions in in round 6-7 and 9-10, but the average TPE difference was only off by 2 for each of these rounds, so it’s a very minor difference.
Obviously all of this data I’ve collected is not context sensitive. It does not take into account different needs by each team, and is only two weeks into the season. There is still tons of time for all of these players to improve as time goes on, and this is not a sprint: it’s a marathon. It’s likely that when we look at this data in a few months, we will see many players with highly different evaluations.
At the end of this season, (right before the ISFL draft), I will do another analysis on all of this. I really want to see how much all of these results change. I think at the midseason mark when I did this analysis, we already have a very good sense of which players were high earners and which were not, but it’s totally possible for things to flip dramatically. Maybe someone who was active early ended up leaving the site for other things? Maybe someone who thought they were *not* going to be active enough, ended up feeling completely at home? I think the only time we can have a truly fair “draft grade” for the teams is at the final end of the season. My suspicion is that things will stay roughly the same as they are at this midpoint draft.
My expected order at season’s end is:
Por
TIJ
MIN
NOR
BB
LON
KC
DAL
Each pick has the following information:
Total TPE: The TPE of the player drafted
TPE Missed: The difference between the TPE of the player drafted, and the highest TPE of all remaining players. For example, at pick 1 Mary Marie was taken with a current TPE of 175, but at the time there was Loose Cannon available with a current TPE of 214. This gives pick 1 a TPE missed of 39 (214-175).
TPE Missed by Position: This is the same as TPE missed, but it is focused exclusively by position, so the Mary Marie pick has a TPE missed by Position of 0 as she has the highest TPE of all safeties taken at the time. A pick like the Artemis Entreri pick (pick 6, 174 TPE, WR) has a TPE missed by position of 22 b/c there was Oliver Tolliver available (Pick 9, 196 TPE, WR).
Times Passed Over By Position: This is the number of times another player in the same position was taken instead of this player. For example the Liath Squirrel pick (Pick 54, 172 TPE, LB) has a times passed over of 6, as there were 6 Linebackers taken before pick 54 with less than 172 TPE. The higher the number here, the more a player was undervalued during the draft.
Delta to average for the round: this is comparing the TPE of the pick to the average for the round. For example the Jumbo Edward pick (Pick 25, TPE 179, Round 3) has a comparison of +44.5 as the average TPE in round 3 was 157.5, and this pick was 44.5 above. A negative value means this pick was below average for the round. The higher the number here, the more of a “steal” I consider the player to be.
For each team I will include these different statistics:
Total TPE gained: This is the sum of all of the TPE of players drafted by the team.
Total TPE missed: This is the Sum of the TPE missed of all the picks made by a team in the recent draft.
Total TPE missed by position: This is the Sum of the TPE missed by position of all the picks made by a team in the recent draft.
Most passed over Player: this is the player who was passed over the most of all the players drafted by the team.
Biggest steal: This is the player who had the biggest Delta to average for the round of all the players drafted by the team.
Total Delta to average: This is the sum of all of the Deltas to average for round for all of the players drafted by the team
All of these stats are available for every pick of the entire draft in this sheet I built here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing.
I will put all the team stats below:
By looking at this table we can see a number of things:
The Portland Pythons had the most efficient draft by far, missing less than 500 TPE total amongst all positions, missing only 83 picks within their position, gaining the most TPE, and having the biggest delta between their picks and the average taken in the round with a whopping 138 TPE extra vs the average through the entire draft.
We can also see that the Dallas Birddogs had the least efficient draft on average, despite having the single best pick of the draft in Wolfie McDummy Jr. who was the most passed over player and had the biggest delta to average for their round.
Next I will show the summary of data by round of the draft:
In this we can see the biggest steal of each round and how big of a steal they were. What’s surprising to me is how there were great steals available in every round of the draft, all the way down to round 12 with a player 30 TPE above the average for the round in every round. There was, however, a sharp dropoff at round 13-15 with all the players being mostly inactive and sitting at basically 50 TPE exactly.
We can also see the scouters generally did quite a great job; most rounds had a lower average TPE than the preceding round (so the players in round 1 were better than the players taken in round 2, all the way down), with 2 small exceptions in in round 6-7 and 9-10, but the average TPE difference was only off by 2 for each of these rounds, so it’s a very minor difference.
Obviously all of this data I’ve collected is not context sensitive. It does not take into account different needs by each team, and is only two weeks into the season. There is still tons of time for all of these players to improve as time goes on, and this is not a sprint: it’s a marathon. It’s likely that when we look at this data in a few months, we will see many players with highly different evaluations.
At the end of this season, (right before the ISFL draft), I will do another analysis on all of this. I really want to see how much all of these results change. I think at the midseason mark when I did this analysis, we already have a very good sense of which players were high earners and which were not, but it’s totally possible for things to flip dramatically. Maybe someone who was active early ended up leaving the site for other things? Maybe someone who thought they were *not* going to be active enough, ended up feeling completely at home? I think the only time we can have a truly fair “draft grade” for the teams is at the final end of the season. My suspicion is that things will stay roughly the same as they are at this midpoint draft.
My expected order at season’s end is:
Por
TIJ
MIN
NOR
BB
LON
KC
DAL
![[Image: morisig.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/688507586177532117/1082481732604924036/morisig.png)
![[Image: 4L0iBsK.png]](https://i.imgur.com/4L0iBsK.png)
![[Image: IMG-4366.jpg]](https://i.postimg.cc/xdHdnN1X/IMG-4366.jpg)
![[Image: 031p.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/NFRVWYW8/031p.png)
![[Image: j50MZfC.png]](https://i.imgur.com/j50MZfC.png)
