03-29-2023, 04:02 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2023, 08:34 PM by Caleb_H. Edited 4 times in total.)
Hi everyone! This is my attempt at predicting approximately how the first round of the draft might play out, specifically in regards to which users you may want to put on your draft predictions, assuming you really want to listen to someone who has 0 GM experience and has about two months of experience in the league.
New-Creates? Re-Creates?
Oh lovely, it's that time in the article where I show off that thing I spent hours working on just so that I can say "I could not find any significant correlation..." et cetera, et cetera. Here's a chart:
So we can see that overall, re-creates are generally favored in comparison to new-creates, taken as a very broad class. But in classes with larger spikes in new users, there wasn't any noticeable bias, so I can safely say that I believe that somewhere between 2-5 veteran users will be taken in the first round. In general new users should not be too worried that their lack of experience will keep them from being drafted in the first round.
I'm going to go over some of the players who I consider to be first rounders, though because I (along with @wizard_literal) have already gone somewhat in depth for all of the prospects, I'm going to keep it very short and informal in my commentary.
Who's going in the first?
Locks:
If all of these players are not gone by the end of the first round I will be very ashamed. Not of myself, but of ISFL GMs as a whole, who somehow managed to go 14 full picks without picking up some of the best users in the draft. They're also my shortlist for potential first-overall possibilities.
@wizard_literal - very friendly, active in both (very good) media contributions and in discord, plays a position of need at DT and is willing to switch if needed.
@UptownCord - less media compared to wizard_literal, but impresses just as well as a person and became a DSFL GM after a short stint as a DSFL intern, plays important and valuable position at LB but unlikely to switch
@baz1757 - great media, charismatic discord presence, plays valuable position at CB but is also willing to switch to any position, and will join their team's war room. also joined shortly after the TDL so has a decent TPE advantage on some of the other players in the class
Slight uncertainty:
Bear in mind here that for a few of these players my uncertainty is more-so based on a lack of knowledge on my part about their activity or about team priorities. Everyone on this list should be included in your draft predictions.
@Jumbo - SHL GM (former? current? idk.) and year-long active PBE user, not much media or (non-LR) discord presence but has a massive bank with plenty of graphics output and leads the class in TPE. I'm putting them as uncertain because I don't know how they'll scout, but otherwise is the surest pick for a team who needs a max-earner. Plays LB but possibly not open to switching positions
@ElMerchanto - great and friendly person, impressive with both graphics and media, but biggest contribution will be in the war room. open to switching when drafted but won't switch afterwards. technically LB but that has a good shot at switching. probably scouts very well.
@toofpete - co-host (primary) of a very good podcast, max-earner, and willing to switch positions. probably will go in the first half of the first round
@TheRake - if I was a GM I'd keep TheRake's rancid nfl takes far away from my locker room, but teams need a good safety, so he has a great shot at going in the first round. co-host (secondary) of a very good podcast
@LtHudz - holds a league job, been super friendly to me in limited interactions, plays valuable position at DT, and has produced my favorite media, An ode to the greatest draft that barely was
Me - people will be upset at me if I don't put myself somewhere. I want to join a team's war room ASAP but don't really want to switch positions. I'd be happy to play out-of-position, however. biggest contribution is :kiwi::snail:
Wide Receivers:
These are the top available wide receivers for the draft, who I'm listing as their own group because they, more than other positions, are very much tied to each other for who goes in the first round. I expect three of these outstanding prospects will be drafted in the first, but I'm only going to put the top two options on my predictions, because #3 would be much more of a toss-up. To the best of my knowledge none of these users want to switch positions, though I'm happy to be corrected.
@infinitempg - outstanding HOF user who would be an easy choice for 1OA if it weren't for their position. In general my only reservation is that there may be a lot of history at play for infinite which I would not be aware of, however I am confident that one team will reach for him in the first round.
@Memento Mori - another great long-time user, very friendly, great media, history of max-earning. once again the only reservation is position and history, but should be an easy pick for 1st-round predictions
@entreri - great with earning TPE but fairly limited in media or graphics contributions. active and friendly on discord.
@Number 82 - does graphics, earns well, past connections to Honolulu. Draft placement will depend greatly on scouting and history, not much I can discern otherwise
@CROney3 - great and consistent media, ever-present discord activity, seems very nice, probably will be great for a locker room
Have a shot:
If you've been paying close attention I've already filled up 11 of the 14 spots for draft predictions, so there's not much room in the first round. I'm pretty happy to have 11 spots filled up with what I feel are solid options in the first round, but there are a ton of great users, old and new, that have a very good shot. The 3 that I'm going to put in my predictions are listed at the top.
@Weaves - hosts a consistent podcast, plays the valuable position of CB, and has made some media
@"LeSizz" - makes some of the most fun and unique pixel graphics, recently switched to LB, may be keen to switch again. overall very friendly on discord.
@AK41 - somehow in my nauseating sickness this morning I forgot to account for someone being a member of HO. top earner at RB, will probably not go back to SJS. main concern would be an early retirement for his last career
@jollyjiggs - listed as a wide receiver but has mentioned an openness to switching positions, so I'm putting them in this broader category to reflect that. Has made some very cute power ranking videos and has shown good enthusiasm for the league. Personally I hope that they stay at WR (or at least switch to a speedy position like DB or RB)
@LiathTheSquirrel - co-host of a podcast, long-time user, there may be concern for long-time earning as she has never gotten a player over 800 TPE over 3 past careers, but is earning very well now and is active on discord
@nickWilliams - highest earning tight end who has made some cool graphics. draft position will depend greatly on scouting and how teams prioritize tight end
@crash1005 - great user (fellow buc) who mostly does in-character media, which I'm a fan of. high-earning at valued position
@marccelaat - another good defensive line prospect who'd go sooner were it not for the strength of the position. Very active on discord, has done some media
@bowl0 - draft position is entirely dependent on which how teams rate their need for a QB. the user would much more likely go in the first round were it not for uncertainty about QB needs.
@jdc4654 - same as bowl0, would be an easy first round pick were it not for position. top-tier user, will probably go in the second or third due to K/P
@DL14 - very active on discord and holds two league jobs, which is very impressive. plays WR and is on the lower end of high earning so I think this one might be a long shot.
@FireworkFuse - someone else I missed because I was very sloppy this morning. has a league job and is active and friendly on discord, primary issue would be TPE earning but plays defensive line so has a shot
To recap, the users I will be putting in my first round predictions are:
@wizard_literal
@UptownCord
@baz1757
@Jumbo
@ElMerchanto
@toofpete
@TheRake
@LtHudz
@aeonsjenni
@infinitempg
@Memento Mori
@Weaves
@"LeSizz"
@AK41
Thanks very much for reading, and good luck to all the prospects in the draft!
~Jenni
New-Creates? Re-Creates?
Oh lovely, it's that time in the article where I show off that thing I spent hours working on just so that I can say "I could not find any significant correlation..." et cetera, et cetera. Here's a chart:
So we can see that overall, re-creates are generally favored in comparison to new-creates, taken as a very broad class. But in classes with larger spikes in new users, there wasn't any noticeable bias, so I can safely say that I believe that somewhere between 2-5 veteran users will be taken in the first round. In general new users should not be too worried that their lack of experience will keep them from being drafted in the first round.
I'm going to go over some of the players who I consider to be first rounders, though because I (along with @wizard_literal) have already gone somewhat in depth for all of the prospects, I'm going to keep it very short and informal in my commentary.
Who's going in the first?
Locks:
If all of these players are not gone by the end of the first round I will be very ashamed. Not of myself, but of ISFL GMs as a whole, who somehow managed to go 14 full picks without picking up some of the best users in the draft. They're also my shortlist for potential first-overall possibilities.
@wizard_literal - very friendly, active in both (very good) media contributions and in discord, plays a position of need at DT and is willing to switch if needed.
@UptownCord - less media compared to wizard_literal, but impresses just as well as a person and became a DSFL GM after a short stint as a DSFL intern, plays important and valuable position at LB but unlikely to switch
@baz1757 - great media, charismatic discord presence, plays valuable position at CB but is also willing to switch to any position, and will join their team's war room. also joined shortly after the TDL so has a decent TPE advantage on some of the other players in the class
Slight uncertainty:
Bear in mind here that for a few of these players my uncertainty is more-so based on a lack of knowledge on my part about their activity or about team priorities. Everyone on this list should be included in your draft predictions.
@Jumbo - SHL GM (former? current? idk.) and year-long active PBE user, not much media or (non-LR) discord presence but has a massive bank with plenty of graphics output and leads the class in TPE. I'm putting them as uncertain because I don't know how they'll scout, but otherwise is the surest pick for a team who needs a max-earner. Plays LB but possibly not open to switching positions
@ElMerchanto - great and friendly person, impressive with both graphics and media, but biggest contribution will be in the war room. open to switching when drafted but won't switch afterwards. technically LB but that has a good shot at switching. probably scouts very well.
@toofpete - co-host (primary) of a very good podcast, max-earner, and willing to switch positions. probably will go in the first half of the first round
@TheRake - if I was a GM I'd keep TheRake's rancid nfl takes far away from my locker room, but teams need a good safety, so he has a great shot at going in the first round. co-host (secondary) of a very good podcast
@LtHudz - holds a league job, been super friendly to me in limited interactions, plays valuable position at DT, and has produced my favorite media, An ode to the greatest draft that barely was
Me - people will be upset at me if I don't put myself somewhere. I want to join a team's war room ASAP but don't really want to switch positions. I'd be happy to play out-of-position, however. biggest contribution is :kiwi::snail:
Wide Receivers:
These are the top available wide receivers for the draft, who I'm listing as their own group because they, more than other positions, are very much tied to each other for who goes in the first round. I expect three of these outstanding prospects will be drafted in the first, but I'm only going to put the top two options on my predictions, because #3 would be much more of a toss-up. To the best of my knowledge none of these users want to switch positions, though I'm happy to be corrected.
@infinitempg - outstanding HOF user who would be an easy choice for 1OA if it weren't for their position. In general my only reservation is that there may be a lot of history at play for infinite which I would not be aware of, however I am confident that one team will reach for him in the first round.
@Memento Mori - another great long-time user, very friendly, great media, history of max-earning. once again the only reservation is position and history, but should be an easy pick for 1st-round predictions
@entreri - great with earning TPE but fairly limited in media or graphics contributions. active and friendly on discord.
@Number 82 - does graphics, earns well, past connections to Honolulu. Draft placement will depend greatly on scouting and history, not much I can discern otherwise
@CROney3 - great and consistent media, ever-present discord activity, seems very nice, probably will be great for a locker room
Have a shot:
If you've been paying close attention I've already filled up 11 of the 14 spots for draft predictions, so there's not much room in the first round. I'm pretty happy to have 11 spots filled up with what I feel are solid options in the first round, but there are a ton of great users, old and new, that have a very good shot. The 3 that I'm going to put in my predictions are listed at the top.
@Weaves - hosts a consistent podcast, plays the valuable position of CB, and has made some media
@"LeSizz" - makes some of the most fun and unique pixel graphics, recently switched to LB, may be keen to switch again. overall very friendly on discord.
@AK41 - somehow in my nauseating sickness this morning I forgot to account for someone being a member of HO. top earner at RB, will probably not go back to SJS. main concern would be an early retirement for his last career
@jollyjiggs - listed as a wide receiver but has mentioned an openness to switching positions, so I'm putting them in this broader category to reflect that. Has made some very cute power ranking videos and has shown good enthusiasm for the league. Personally I hope that they stay at WR (or at least switch to a speedy position like DB or RB)
@LiathTheSquirrel - co-host of a podcast, long-time user, there may be concern for long-time earning as she has never gotten a player over 800 TPE over 3 past careers, but is earning very well now and is active on discord
@nickWilliams - highest earning tight end who has made some cool graphics. draft position will depend greatly on scouting and how teams prioritize tight end
@crash1005 - great user (fellow buc) who mostly does in-character media, which I'm a fan of. high-earning at valued position
@marccelaat - another good defensive line prospect who'd go sooner were it not for the strength of the position. Very active on discord, has done some media
@bowl0 - draft position is entirely dependent on which how teams rate their need for a QB. the user would much more likely go in the first round were it not for uncertainty about QB needs.
@jdc4654 - same as bowl0, would be an easy first round pick were it not for position. top-tier user, will probably go in the second or third due to K/P
@DL14 - very active on discord and holds two league jobs, which is very impressive. plays WR and is on the lower end of high earning so I think this one might be a long shot.
@FireworkFuse - someone else I missed because I was very sloppy this morning. has a league job and is active and friendly on discord, primary issue would be TPE earning but plays defensive line so has a shot
To recap, the users I will be putting in my first round predictions are:
@wizard_literal
@UptownCord
@baz1757
@Jumbo
@ElMerchanto
@toofpete
@TheRake
@LtHudz
@aeonsjenni
@infinitempg
@Memento Mori
@Weaves
@"LeSizz"
@AK41
Thanks very much for reading, and good luck to all the prospects in the draft!
~Jenni