04-17-2023, 03:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-21-2023, 11:22 AM by xenosthelegend. Edited 3 times in total.)
Quick hitter explanation: I took the total TPE of each position on each team compared to what in my personal opinion is the TPE I would expect to see at a given position for a Ultimus-winning team. I then took an average player at each position, which ended up being 8 points, and compared the team to that. I then predicted the record for each team based on their scores compared to their opponents. There are some intangibles for each team that raw score doesn't cover, hence the article. An average offense will have 72 points on offense, 94 points on defense, and 24 points on special teams. I calculated special teams with a .25 weight, offense with a 1.15 weight, and defense with a 1.05 weight.
**DISCLAIMER: I ONLY ACCOUNTED FOR RAW TPE PLACEMENT AND BUILD QUALITY FOR THIS UPCOMING SEASON. THIS ARTICLE DOES NOT AIM TO PREDICT FUTURE SEASONS. YOUNG REBUILDING TEAMS WILL NOT BE GOOD IN THIS METRIC - IT IS NOT A SIGN OF FUTURE SEASONS' SQUADS.**
**DISCLAIMER: I ONLY ACCOUNTED FOR RAW TPE PLACEMENT AND BUILD QUALITY FOR THIS UPCOMING SEASON. THIS ARTICLE DOES NOT AIM TO PREDICT FUTURE SEASONS. YOUNG REBUILDING TEAMS WILL NOT BE GOOD IN THIS METRIC - IT IS NOT A SIGN OF FUTURE SEASONS' SQUADS.**
SPREADSHEET WITH RAW DATA
----------------------------------grader, please only pay for the below portion, as I copy pasted the above from my ASFC article.-------------------------------------
----------------------------------grader, please only pay for the below portion, as I copy pasted the above from my ASFC article.-------------------------------------
NSFC
Baltimore Hawks
Offense Score: 48/72 (67%)
Defense Score: 82/96 (85%)
ST Score: 25/24 (104%)
Overall Score: 76.85% (14th)
Writeup:
Baltimore is a team that is still mid-rebuild but now on the upswing. As a result, they are still missing a lot of key pieces this season, though they are developing well and will get to the point of being good again sometime in the next couple seasons. Their QB is very solid at 1100, and is entering his prime seasons currently. At RB, a very young 529 will struggle this season but will continue to get better. WR is almost there, but is a hair bit behind my benchmarks at 1135, 848, and 423, and a 337 TE doesn't help matters. They also have Dante King at 235 as their OFLEX, who is chasing career records that are very much in reach. They also have two OL, one of which is right around the marker and the other is a bit weaker but still very serviceable as a guard or center.
On defense, Baltimore starts strong with a solid DL, rostering a 659 DT and DEs at 860 and 771. That's a very very strong starting front line, but the linebackers don't quite meet that. The backers aren't bad by any means, rocking 1022, 874, 513, but they're all just a hair bit below my benchmarks. The true needs for Baltimore's defense is the secondary though, and even that isn't truly a need. As on the offense, this is a young team that's building well and has a lot of potential, just needs a couple more seasons to mature. 764 and 661 at CB are not great but won't get torched, and are still growing. At safety, 618 and 410 are still young and earning and 447 is on the older side but still works hard.
One move I think Baltimore could make is to trade salary cap. There are only 8 players on the roster making more than $1m this season, and the squad has almost $20m in salary cap even after purchasing top tier bots. Making their salary cap available for purchase may not result in any buyers, but if they get a team desperate enough for some cap they could get a usable pick and continue to add to their young core.
Berlin Fire Salamanders
Offense Score: 39/72 (54%)
Defense Score: 119/96 (124%)
ST Score: 36/24 (150%)
Overall Score: 93.13% (7th)
Writeup:
Belrin are a tale of two teams. Much like Honolulu in the ASFC, they are a powerhouse and top of the league on one side of the ball, but are dreadfully woeful on the other side - for at least one season. However, in this case, it's the offense that is far below average, and is in fact slightly worse than HON's defense. QB is solid with Roque Santa Cruz at the helm, though he is not really supplied with much in the way of weapons. They do have the quality to be competitive in most games, but I don't think enough to score against the best defenses. WRs at 1028, 728, and 335 are young and not quite in their primes, and the TE at 405 is okay but you'd like to see a hair more with the WR corps as it is. They also have a sub-300 human at OL, which is not the worst thing, but ultimately will be played on the interior line, and if you have a human OL you'd really like to see them playing on the edge to help combat the top DL in the league. This is another young side though that should be much better by the end of the season and will continue to improve over the next few seasons.
On defense, Berlin has done a master-class of rebuilding. 1261 at DT, 799 and 514 at DE. One of the few DL in the league that lives up to my parameters. They also boast 1107, 975, and 957 at LB, which is a hair low for LB1 but is made up for by the well above average LB3. At corner, their top guy is currently 957 but hasn't updated in 3 weeks, so their top CB is realistically looking at 1100 starting week 4. CB2 is at 820, which is right around the stage where you aren't sure whether or not they'll be good. At safety, they have an excellent pairing with 1144 and 847, and have a strong NB at 702 that can slot in easily to their empty LB4 slot.
One move I think Berlin could make is to trade for a WR. I can't pinpoint one that specifically both regresses into death at the same time as the rest of the squad is improving and that would reasonably be on the board, or that would be worth the asking price, but I think it's their easiest path to improvement this season. I'd suggest probably either Ttolem Mada from NOLA or Austin Morely from CHI if I had to pick one. Their WR corps getting an upgrade would add at least 10 points, which would boost them to 68% on offense and to 99.11% overall.
Cape Town Crash
Offense Score: 82/72 (114%)
Defense Score: 97/96 (101%)
ST Score: 35/24 (146%)
Overall Score: 106.72% (2nd)
Writeup:
Cape Town usually fields a pretty good team, but this may be the best one in a long time to come from the former Liberty organization. They are spearheaded by Creg Jerrith IV, who is under my TPE threshold but still perfectly serviceable and has plenty of ability to manage his squad. Their RB is last season's MVP and he's not even in his peak season yet, which is scary to think about after the production he put up last season. They have a backup RB at 541, which is perfect all things considered. At WR, they are a hair thinner than I'd really like to see, with 905, 898, and 495, but those are still WRs that can do perfectly fine, especially with the addition of their 1039 TE. Leaning on the back should make it so that the passing game isn't put into unsavory situations that could hurt them.
On defense, Cape Town starts strong with 1058 at DT and 914 at DE1, but DE2 is a bit weak - which when you have that DL isn't the worst thing. However, the Crash linebackers need some help. 1278 from the top backer is perfect, but having 2 and 3 both under 400 is not good. That definitely will need to be addressed, and in the meantime I wouldn't be overly surprised if we see them play some of their DBs out of position. 887 and 788 at CB are right around the danger level but should be middle of the league, and are helped out by the best safety duo in the league with 1240 and 1050. NB also sits at 398, which isn't great either but at NB doesn't need to be.
One move I think Cape Town could make is to trade for LB Carissa van Campen from NOLA. I said this for one of the ASFC teams as well, but the fact of the matter is van Campen is one of the LBs who is most likely to be available on the market and for a decent price, though she certainly won't be cheap. Acquiring van Campen would boost CTC's defense score to 110%, and overall score to 111.64%, which would keep them in 2nd but would give a bit of leeway against their biggest NSFC competition.
Chicago Butchers
Offense Score: 54/72 (75%)
Defense Score: 74/96 (77%)
ST Score: 42/24 (175%)
Overall Score: 78.28% (13th)
Writeup:
Chicago is a team that is coming off of a long run of good seasons and some long stretches of playoff appearances and are now at the beginning stages of a rebuild. They do have some good options overall, but it's not looking great in the windy city. To start with, QB sits at 812, which isn't bad but isn't helped any by a WR core desperately in need of help. 1309 is the return specialist archetype, which is perfectly fine at 1300 TPE, but beyond that the receivers are at 425 and 396, and both are mid-earners from my understanding. They do have an excellent TE at 805 who is active and earning, and a slightly below average RB who is young but earning at 746. They also have one OL at 330, which is fine for an inside line spot but won't work any magic.
On defense, they are also lackluster, with 1005 at DT and 814 and 399 at DE. LB has 624, 489, and 304, which is not very good and isn't particularly helped by the DL when the numbers are that low. At CB, they have 1333 and 647, which is a average pairing compared to the rest of the league but one that is a bit lacking on the CB2 side. They also have 450 and 337 at safety, which won't break any records but won't hurt the team compared to other position groups. A 288 NB finishes off this defense, which is one of the lowest ranked in the league.
One move I think Chicago could make is to trade Austin Morely, Walter McKinley, Xavier Valorian, Joseph Reed, and Quendyn Quarterstorm. These 5 players are the best on Chicago's roster, so trading them would almost certainly confirm a 4-5 season rebuild, but they'll come out strong on the other side, and quite frankly I don't think Chicago can make the playoffs this season or next with or without these 5 players. Trading them could get some outrageous draft capital in return as well as replacement players that can at the least finish off the season, especially with there being needs at almost all of the positions that these 5 players are at. It would be a hard pill to swallow and I don't even know if I fully believe they should sell, but it's the most viable option as trading for someone will definitely not do enough to get them to the playoffs.
Colorado Yeti
Offense Score: 61/72 (85%)
Defense Score: 110/96 (115%)
ST Score: 40/24 (167%)
Overall Score: 101.9% (4th)
Writeup:
Colorado has one of the most interesting rosters in the league. Although they are placed 4th overall in my metric, they realistically are not the 4th best team in the league. They do absolutely have a very strong case to be a playoff team this season, but I believe that they are a hit or miss team at almost every position - by that I mean that they either get 10 or 0 TPE points in my metric. On offense, the 939 QB is perfectly fine but does get that 0. RB sits at 974 and gets a few points but will be a perfectly usable option. WR is a bit of a mess in my opinion, though you could argue that it's perfectly fine with 894 and 738 as options 1 and 2. The big issue is 263 at WR3, which can be filled by the 1265 monster at TE in some formations but still will cause some problems overall. They also have a good OL who can play LT and absorb some of the pressure from the DL, which are much better in the NSFC than ASFC overall.
On defense, similar story, though their defense is actually about as good as my numbers place them. A very good defensive line scores nearly perfect with 1011 at DT and 968 and 783 at the ends. The linebackers however are definitely the weakness of this unit, as they sit at 768, 623, and 345, with a LB4/DL4 of 249. The secondary is also pretty quality however, with 1088 getting only 1 point but still being decent and CB2 right in that worrisome but not panic range at 738. Safeties are in excellent shape, with 1317 and 764 blowing my ideal metrics out of the water, and honestly I could see that 1317 playing CB2 and moving the 738 back to the safety spot to really help the team out. NB is 509, which is fine for that position but nothing to write home about.
One move I think Colorado could make is to trade for an LB. I again can't figure out exactly what backer they should target, as their core is still young and they likely won't want to bring in someone with as much left in the tank as van Campen, but they also won't want to overpay to bring in someone on a fringe playoff team who only has a few seasons left. They likely will just stay the course and will be one of the top teams in the league next season, but LB is definitely going to be their weakness this season.
Sarasota Sailfish
Offense Score: 58/72 (81%)
Defense Score: 80/96 (83%)
ST Score: 42/24 (175%)
Overall Score: 83.96% (12th)
Writeup:
Sarasota is 12th according to my rankings, but I have a hard time believing that they finish that low. It just goes to show how these rankings are absolutely not perfect. I have SAR finishing 4th in the NSFC, but it's gonna be a very interesting season watching the team led by Willier Miller, the 661 QB who is as a matter of fact the worst QB in the league TPE wise. He does have a good quality running back at 1006, so you have to assume that the offense will be run through him, as the WR options are 777, 477, and 311, which is not conducive to an excellent season. Two of the receivers are young and will improve, and they do have one of the top TEs in the league in Lucius Salem, who I think will be in incredible form this season acting as the team's safety blanket. they also have two solid OL at 672 and 479, which will help a lot in providing protection for Miller, who is prone to sacks with the way his build is.
On defense, their DL is among the bottom of the league, but only because of a position swap to QB - and half of it is very young. 414 and 410 are fine IA pieces, and 446 is a good young active player. 251 may struggle a bit but is young and active, so will improve. At LB, the sailfish have a good LB1 with 1140, but have a 600 TPE dropoff to LB2 at 563, and then 250 more to 302. They also have a 260 who I believe is record chasing. In the secondary, Sarasota has 1154 and 1319, though the 1319 did just position switch and lose some TPE for this season, so I believe their effective TPE is closer to 1100. Still, two very solid CBs that will help shut down the pass, though the run is going to have a lot of success against them. They also have two average to good safeties at 592 and 532, but both are very old and still regressing, so this is the last season there will really be a ton of things going for that safety duo. Their NB is also an active earning 624 who will take over for the regressing 1154 next season most likley. Overall it's a squad that is very weak to the run but is above average against the pass.
One move that I think Sarasota could make would be to trade for a WR - probably Ttolem Mada, but potentially Austin Morely as well - as it would provide the most boost. They have a S in the pipeline as well as a LB, and drafting DL will be easy since they have two good earning ones already. It would provide a boost to a team that as of now is scheduled to only have 777 and 311 next season as the 477 is gonna regress to very near death and would help their young team build.
Yellowknife Wraiths
Offense Score: 86/72 (119%)
Defense Score: 75/96 (78%)
ST Score: 45/24 (188%)
Overall Score: 98.39% (5th)
Writeup:
Yellowknife is one of the most complete teams on offense, boasting the best by-the-numbers offense in the NSFC and the 3rd best in the league behind only AUS and HON. Their QB is at 1166 and is still earning, and they have an absolutely lethal RB duo of 1396 and 1272. However, with only 2 WR on the roster, I believe that the team will be employing the 1396 receiving back RB at either WR1 or WR2 and letting the 1272 be the bellcow for the squad, which makes sense considering the TPE levels. Speaking of WR, their top one is 1231, and when you consider that nearly 1400 TPE of RB is playing WR, we can assume that he'll play like he has about 1000 after the position skill penalty, meaning that their WR3 will be right around my standards with 602 and has routinely performed quite well. They have a 475 TE that's serviceable but not excellent and two incredible OL to boot, sitting at 1130 and 964 and working as excellent bookend tackles.
On defense is where the Wraiths get dicey. They aren't quite as bad young as the HON defense, but they certainly could be better. DT sits at 757, which is good, and DE1 is 1154, which is great. DE2, however, is under 300 and is inactive. LB1 is 1154, which is good, LB2 is 1037, which is good, and LB3 is 609, which is good. Ther 4th LB/DL is not good with 274 but will improve as they are active if earning a bit slow. However the Wraiths' defensive struggles are really in the secondary. On the bright side, they are all active, so will improve through the season, but CB1 is 925 and CB2 is 756, both of which will be susceptible to some light roasting, and both of which are on the older side. At safety, 768 is regressing and is right at the mark, and 546 is earning and is a hair below the mark for S, and NB is either 378 or 336 depending on whether they play the vet in his last season or the rookie there. Overall it's a decent squad that is good against the run but will struggle against the pass.
One move that I think the Wraiths could make would be to trade for OCO CB Ace McAlister. I said in the ASFC version that they should consider moving him for the right price, and I think that YKW is the perfect landing spot for him. He would push either Mekhar or the Frog out of a corner spot in the short term, but given that both are regressing and both have at best one season left, it's worth considering depending on the price and how their users in the secondary feel about it. Making this move would increase YKW's defense score to 96% (presuming that Frog is then moved to SS and Ram Say to NB) and overall score to 107.68%, which would be good for 2nd.
And now:
NSFC STANDINGS PREDICTION
1. Cape Town Crash: 13-3
2. Yellowknife Wraiths: 12-4
3. Colorado Yeti: 10-6
4. Sarasota Sailfish: 7-9
5. Berlin Fire Salamanders: 6-10
6. Baltimore Hawks: 5-11
7. Chicago Butchers: 2-14
As in the previous article, I expect these standings to be inaccurate at the end of the season, but in this conference they will probably be even more different than the ASFC. There is so much unpredictability in this conference and it's nearly impossible to tell what will happen other than that YKW and CTC should be top of the conference.
Thanks for reading, and feel free to pick my metrics apart!
Baltimore Hawks Offense Score: 48/72 (67%)
Defense Score: 82/96 (85%)
ST Score: 25/24 (104%)
Overall Score: 76.85% (14th)
Writeup:
Baltimore is a team that is still mid-rebuild but now on the upswing. As a result, they are still missing a lot of key pieces this season, though they are developing well and will get to the point of being good again sometime in the next couple seasons. Their QB is very solid at 1100, and is entering his prime seasons currently. At RB, a very young 529 will struggle this season but will continue to get better. WR is almost there, but is a hair bit behind my benchmarks at 1135, 848, and 423, and a 337 TE doesn't help matters. They also have Dante King at 235 as their OFLEX, who is chasing career records that are very much in reach. They also have two OL, one of which is right around the marker and the other is a bit weaker but still very serviceable as a guard or center.
On defense, Baltimore starts strong with a solid DL, rostering a 659 DT and DEs at 860 and 771. That's a very very strong starting front line, but the linebackers don't quite meet that. The backers aren't bad by any means, rocking 1022, 874, 513, but they're all just a hair bit below my benchmarks. The true needs for Baltimore's defense is the secondary though, and even that isn't truly a need. As on the offense, this is a young team that's building well and has a lot of potential, just needs a couple more seasons to mature. 764 and 661 at CB are not great but won't get torched, and are still growing. At safety, 618 and 410 are still young and earning and 447 is on the older side but still works hard.
One move I think Baltimore could make is to trade salary cap. There are only 8 players on the roster making more than $1m this season, and the squad has almost $20m in salary cap even after purchasing top tier bots. Making their salary cap available for purchase may not result in any buyers, but if they get a team desperate enough for some cap they could get a usable pick and continue to add to their young core.
Berlin Fire Salamanders Offense Score: 39/72 (54%)
Defense Score: 119/96 (124%)
ST Score: 36/24 (150%)
Overall Score: 93.13% (7th)
Writeup:
Belrin are a tale of two teams. Much like Honolulu in the ASFC, they are a powerhouse and top of the league on one side of the ball, but are dreadfully woeful on the other side - for at least one season. However, in this case, it's the offense that is far below average, and is in fact slightly worse than HON's defense. QB is solid with Roque Santa Cruz at the helm, though he is not really supplied with much in the way of weapons. They do have the quality to be competitive in most games, but I don't think enough to score against the best defenses. WRs at 1028, 728, and 335 are young and not quite in their primes, and the TE at 405 is okay but you'd like to see a hair more with the WR corps as it is. They also have a sub-300 human at OL, which is not the worst thing, but ultimately will be played on the interior line, and if you have a human OL you'd really like to see them playing on the edge to help combat the top DL in the league. This is another young side though that should be much better by the end of the season and will continue to improve over the next few seasons.
On defense, Berlin has done a master-class of rebuilding. 1261 at DT, 799 and 514 at DE. One of the few DL in the league that lives up to my parameters. They also boast 1107, 975, and 957 at LB, which is a hair low for LB1 but is made up for by the well above average LB3. At corner, their top guy is currently 957 but hasn't updated in 3 weeks, so their top CB is realistically looking at 1100 starting week 4. CB2 is at 820, which is right around the stage where you aren't sure whether or not they'll be good. At safety, they have an excellent pairing with 1144 and 847, and have a strong NB at 702 that can slot in easily to their empty LB4 slot.
One move I think Berlin could make is to trade for a WR. I can't pinpoint one that specifically both regresses into death at the same time as the rest of the squad is improving and that would reasonably be on the board, or that would be worth the asking price, but I think it's their easiest path to improvement this season. I'd suggest probably either Ttolem Mada from NOLA or Austin Morely from CHI if I had to pick one. Their WR corps getting an upgrade would add at least 10 points, which would boost them to 68% on offense and to 99.11% overall.
Cape Town Crash Offense Score: 82/72 (114%)
Defense Score: 97/96 (101%)
ST Score: 35/24 (146%)
Overall Score: 106.72% (2nd)
Writeup:
Cape Town usually fields a pretty good team, but this may be the best one in a long time to come from the former Liberty organization. They are spearheaded by Creg Jerrith IV, who is under my TPE threshold but still perfectly serviceable and has plenty of ability to manage his squad. Their RB is last season's MVP and he's not even in his peak season yet, which is scary to think about after the production he put up last season. They have a backup RB at 541, which is perfect all things considered. At WR, they are a hair thinner than I'd really like to see, with 905, 898, and 495, but those are still WRs that can do perfectly fine, especially with the addition of their 1039 TE. Leaning on the back should make it so that the passing game isn't put into unsavory situations that could hurt them.
On defense, Cape Town starts strong with 1058 at DT and 914 at DE1, but DE2 is a bit weak - which when you have that DL isn't the worst thing. However, the Crash linebackers need some help. 1278 from the top backer is perfect, but having 2 and 3 both under 400 is not good. That definitely will need to be addressed, and in the meantime I wouldn't be overly surprised if we see them play some of their DBs out of position. 887 and 788 at CB are right around the danger level but should be middle of the league, and are helped out by the best safety duo in the league with 1240 and 1050. NB also sits at 398, which isn't great either but at NB doesn't need to be.
One move I think Cape Town could make is to trade for LB Carissa van Campen from NOLA. I said this for one of the ASFC teams as well, but the fact of the matter is van Campen is one of the LBs who is most likely to be available on the market and for a decent price, though she certainly won't be cheap. Acquiring van Campen would boost CTC's defense score to 110%, and overall score to 111.64%, which would keep them in 2nd but would give a bit of leeway against their biggest NSFC competition.
Chicago Butchers Offense Score: 54/72 (75%)
Defense Score: 74/96 (77%)
ST Score: 42/24 (175%)
Overall Score: 78.28% (13th)
Writeup:
Chicago is a team that is coming off of a long run of good seasons and some long stretches of playoff appearances and are now at the beginning stages of a rebuild. They do have some good options overall, but it's not looking great in the windy city. To start with, QB sits at 812, which isn't bad but isn't helped any by a WR core desperately in need of help. 1309 is the return specialist archetype, which is perfectly fine at 1300 TPE, but beyond that the receivers are at 425 and 396, and both are mid-earners from my understanding. They do have an excellent TE at 805 who is active and earning, and a slightly below average RB who is young but earning at 746. They also have one OL at 330, which is fine for an inside line spot but won't work any magic.
On defense, they are also lackluster, with 1005 at DT and 814 and 399 at DE. LB has 624, 489, and 304, which is not very good and isn't particularly helped by the DL when the numbers are that low. At CB, they have 1333 and 647, which is a average pairing compared to the rest of the league but one that is a bit lacking on the CB2 side. They also have 450 and 337 at safety, which won't break any records but won't hurt the team compared to other position groups. A 288 NB finishes off this defense, which is one of the lowest ranked in the league.
One move I think Chicago could make is to trade Austin Morely, Walter McKinley, Xavier Valorian, Joseph Reed, and Quendyn Quarterstorm. These 5 players are the best on Chicago's roster, so trading them would almost certainly confirm a 4-5 season rebuild, but they'll come out strong on the other side, and quite frankly I don't think Chicago can make the playoffs this season or next with or without these 5 players. Trading them could get some outrageous draft capital in return as well as replacement players that can at the least finish off the season, especially with there being needs at almost all of the positions that these 5 players are at. It would be a hard pill to swallow and I don't even know if I fully believe they should sell, but it's the most viable option as trading for someone will definitely not do enough to get them to the playoffs.
Colorado Yeti Offense Score: 61/72 (85%)
Defense Score: 110/96 (115%)
ST Score: 40/24 (167%)
Overall Score: 101.9% (4th)
Writeup:
Colorado has one of the most interesting rosters in the league. Although they are placed 4th overall in my metric, they realistically are not the 4th best team in the league. They do absolutely have a very strong case to be a playoff team this season, but I believe that they are a hit or miss team at almost every position - by that I mean that they either get 10 or 0 TPE points in my metric. On offense, the 939 QB is perfectly fine but does get that 0. RB sits at 974 and gets a few points but will be a perfectly usable option. WR is a bit of a mess in my opinion, though you could argue that it's perfectly fine with 894 and 738 as options 1 and 2. The big issue is 263 at WR3, which can be filled by the 1265 monster at TE in some formations but still will cause some problems overall. They also have a good OL who can play LT and absorb some of the pressure from the DL, which are much better in the NSFC than ASFC overall.
On defense, similar story, though their defense is actually about as good as my numbers place them. A very good defensive line scores nearly perfect with 1011 at DT and 968 and 783 at the ends. The linebackers however are definitely the weakness of this unit, as they sit at 768, 623, and 345, with a LB4/DL4 of 249. The secondary is also pretty quality however, with 1088 getting only 1 point but still being decent and CB2 right in that worrisome but not panic range at 738. Safeties are in excellent shape, with 1317 and 764 blowing my ideal metrics out of the water, and honestly I could see that 1317 playing CB2 and moving the 738 back to the safety spot to really help the team out. NB is 509, which is fine for that position but nothing to write home about.
One move I think Colorado could make is to trade for an LB. I again can't figure out exactly what backer they should target, as their core is still young and they likely won't want to bring in someone with as much left in the tank as van Campen, but they also won't want to overpay to bring in someone on a fringe playoff team who only has a few seasons left. They likely will just stay the course and will be one of the top teams in the league next season, but LB is definitely going to be their weakness this season.
Sarasota Sailfish Offense Score: 58/72 (81%)
Defense Score: 80/96 (83%)
ST Score: 42/24 (175%)
Overall Score: 83.96% (12th)
Writeup:
Sarasota is 12th according to my rankings, but I have a hard time believing that they finish that low. It just goes to show how these rankings are absolutely not perfect. I have SAR finishing 4th in the NSFC, but it's gonna be a very interesting season watching the team led by Willier Miller, the 661 QB who is as a matter of fact the worst QB in the league TPE wise. He does have a good quality running back at 1006, so you have to assume that the offense will be run through him, as the WR options are 777, 477, and 311, which is not conducive to an excellent season. Two of the receivers are young and will improve, and they do have one of the top TEs in the league in Lucius Salem, who I think will be in incredible form this season acting as the team's safety blanket. they also have two solid OL at 672 and 479, which will help a lot in providing protection for Miller, who is prone to sacks with the way his build is.
On defense, their DL is among the bottom of the league, but only because of a position swap to QB - and half of it is very young. 414 and 410 are fine IA pieces, and 446 is a good young active player. 251 may struggle a bit but is young and active, so will improve. At LB, the sailfish have a good LB1 with 1140, but have a 600 TPE dropoff to LB2 at 563, and then 250 more to 302. They also have a 260 who I believe is record chasing. In the secondary, Sarasota has 1154 and 1319, though the 1319 did just position switch and lose some TPE for this season, so I believe their effective TPE is closer to 1100. Still, two very solid CBs that will help shut down the pass, though the run is going to have a lot of success against them. They also have two average to good safeties at 592 and 532, but both are very old and still regressing, so this is the last season there will really be a ton of things going for that safety duo. Their NB is also an active earning 624 who will take over for the regressing 1154 next season most likley. Overall it's a squad that is very weak to the run but is above average against the pass.
One move that I think Sarasota could make would be to trade for a WR - probably Ttolem Mada, but potentially Austin Morely as well - as it would provide the most boost. They have a S in the pipeline as well as a LB, and drafting DL will be easy since they have two good earning ones already. It would provide a boost to a team that as of now is scheduled to only have 777 and 311 next season as the 477 is gonna regress to very near death and would help their young team build.
Yellowknife Wraiths Offense Score: 86/72 (119%)
Defense Score: 75/96 (78%)
ST Score: 45/24 (188%)
Overall Score: 98.39% (5th)
Writeup:
Yellowknife is one of the most complete teams on offense, boasting the best by-the-numbers offense in the NSFC and the 3rd best in the league behind only AUS and HON. Their QB is at 1166 and is still earning, and they have an absolutely lethal RB duo of 1396 and 1272. However, with only 2 WR on the roster, I believe that the team will be employing the 1396 receiving back RB at either WR1 or WR2 and letting the 1272 be the bellcow for the squad, which makes sense considering the TPE levels. Speaking of WR, their top one is 1231, and when you consider that nearly 1400 TPE of RB is playing WR, we can assume that he'll play like he has about 1000 after the position skill penalty, meaning that their WR3 will be right around my standards with 602 and has routinely performed quite well. They have a 475 TE that's serviceable but not excellent and two incredible OL to boot, sitting at 1130 and 964 and working as excellent bookend tackles.
On defense is where the Wraiths get dicey. They aren't quite as bad young as the HON defense, but they certainly could be better. DT sits at 757, which is good, and DE1 is 1154, which is great. DE2, however, is under 300 and is inactive. LB1 is 1154, which is good, LB2 is 1037, which is good, and LB3 is 609, which is good. Ther 4th LB/DL is not good with 274 but will improve as they are active if earning a bit slow. However the Wraiths' defensive struggles are really in the secondary. On the bright side, they are all active, so will improve through the season, but CB1 is 925 and CB2 is 756, both of which will be susceptible to some light roasting, and both of which are on the older side. At safety, 768 is regressing and is right at the mark, and 546 is earning and is a hair below the mark for S, and NB is either 378 or 336 depending on whether they play the vet in his last season or the rookie there. Overall it's a decent squad that is good against the run but will struggle against the pass.
One move that I think the Wraiths could make would be to trade for OCO CB Ace McAlister. I said in the ASFC version that they should consider moving him for the right price, and I think that YKW is the perfect landing spot for him. He would push either Mekhar or the Frog out of a corner spot in the short term, but given that both are regressing and both have at best one season left, it's worth considering depending on the price and how their users in the secondary feel about it. Making this move would increase YKW's defense score to 96% (presuming that Frog is then moved to SS and Ram Say to NB) and overall score to 107.68%, which would be good for 2nd.
And now:
NSFC STANDINGS PREDICTION
1.
Cape Town Crash: 13-3 2.
Yellowknife Wraiths: 12-4 3.
Colorado Yeti: 10-6 4.
Sarasota Sailfish: 7-9 5.
Berlin Fire Salamanders: 6-10 6.
Baltimore Hawks: 5-11 7.
Chicago Butchers: 2-14 As in the previous article, I expect these standings to be inaccurate at the end of the season, but in this conference they will probably be even more different than the ASFC. There is so much unpredictability in this conference and it's nearly impossible to tell what will happen other than that YKW and CTC should be top of the conference.
Thanks for reading, and feel free to pick my metrics apart!
![[Image: Laser_Tri_Sig.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/881551091483955230/1080862142376456222/Laser_Tri_Sig.png)
![[Image: LaserDarts.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/LaserDarts.gif)
![[Image: SoEvil.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/SoEvil.gif)
![[Image: Alikh.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/Alikh.gif)
