04-24-2023, 07:04 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-27-2023, 05:28 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 1 time in total.)
So I know im a bit late posting these betting tips, but I was heavily Inspired by @CROney3 to make my own series, so here it is, only 5 minutes late. (This is not advice, if you have a ISFL gambling addiction, please call 1-800-GAMBLER)
Ray Baker : Total Points Scored 10.5 O/U- Over
HON is off to a surprising 4-0 start, and a large part of that success has come off of rookie icon Ray Baker. Ray Baker is a rookie not carrying his team on his back per se, but instead carrying his team on his leg. When it comes to his ability, “Ask and thou shall receive” may be his motto, because he is a perfect 12/12 on extra point conversions and 12/12 on Field Goals. From these we can derive his average points, given he usually puts up and makes 3 Field Goals and 3 Extra Points, he makes 12 points a game on average. Week 1 he put up 11 points, Week 2 he put up 12 points, In week 3 he put up 15 points, and in Week 4 he put up 10 points. HON is also facing the Juggernaut of AZ, so their stout defense might make them stall out in Field Goal range a lot more. With his on average PPG being 1.5 higher than the line, and with AZ’s defense much less likely to give up TDs, Baker should hit the over, and this pick is my lock of the week.
Absolute Unit : Completions 21.5 O/U - Under
Well you may be staring at this pick with some confusion, which is well warranted. Absolute Unit sits on the most stacked offense in the league at YKW, and he is one of the highest rated QB’s in the ISFL. However, he sits at 4th worst in total completions and QBR in the league, and has around a pick and a half a game. Absolute Unit has also never had 22 or more receptions in a game. Also, the team Unit is going up against is the Fire Salamanders, which has the most stacked defense in terms of TPE. Berlin also had a nice haul from a blockbuster trade with NOLA, stacking their already stacked defense even more. If you pick the over, your bank account will be as transparent as Absolute Unit’s team mascot. Be smart, pick the under.
Howard Coward : Rushing Yards 75.5 O/U - Over
Howard Coward is much of a coward when it comes to his last 2 games, putting up 100 yards against Honolulu and 90 yards against Orange County. Howard Coward seems to be hitting his stride here, and when you dig into defensive TPE, you can see the reason. Both HON and OCO have the 2 worst defenses in the league, TPE wise, and more or less acted like turnstiles for Howard Coward to walk right through. So why you may ask, is this an over? Because their next opponent is the gutted NOLA squad, who sits 4th in terms of worst defense in TPE. They already give up 149 rushing yards a game, so I think Howard Coward will be eating well tonight. Howard Coward easily gets 76 yards running through a depleted NOLA, take the over.
Scoonie McSix : Receptions 6.5 O/U - Over
Scoonie McSix is San Jose’s top receiver already this year, averaging 8 catches a game. This week San Jose is going up against the New York Silverbacks, who have a Mid-Tier Defense as far as TPE is concerned, but when you look into averages, NYS isn’t as balanced as you may think. While their defense gives up only 77.2 Rushing Yards, they give out 416 Passing Yards! Sure this O/U is receptions, but teams that have faced up against NYS have found their Anti-Air is coming from World War 1. Given Scoonie McSix already has a tendency to get 7 receptions or more, and NYS Air Raid system is off currently, I feel confident Scoonie McSix can hit the over here.
Pan Cakes : Pancakes 7.5 O/U - Under
Now the Offensive Line mechanics are harder to guess, and given I don’t know specifically who he will be lined up against, it’s harder to make a good solid guess on the O/U here. However it doesn’t mean we can’t try, so let’s get cracking the code. Pan Cakes sits with the New York Silverbacks, and he is listed as a Tackle, so most likely he will face a DE or a LB. NYS matchup is the San Jose Sabercats, so their DE is Alex Armstrong or Mike Scott. Since Pan Cakes is the 2cd best tackle on NYS, we will give him Alex Armstrong to square up against. Alex Armstrong out strengths and out agility Pan Cakes, so I’ll say Alex does well tonight, and Pan Cakes might not live up to his name's sake today. You may be saying though that Pan Cakes averages 8.5 Pancakes a game, 1 over the O/U. While that is true, when looking game by game, Pan Cakes is in benefit of a statistical outlier here. His game counts are 6,7,7, and 14 pancakes, which means his average is boosted by 1 good showing. Given he is the loser in this fantasy matchup this week and his tendency to have 7 or less pancakes a game, Pan Cakes is looking more like Walmart Pancake mix, and not Bisquick Pancake mix. He hits the under today
King Zeus : Passes Defended + Tackles 8.5 O/U - Over
This is one I’m not so confident about, given that his average on Passes Defended and Tackles is 9, and that he is going up against a much more pass-heavy team in Chicago. I’m Running out of time, so I guess I’ll take the Over.
I have different confidence levels in all of these picks, so I have some you should take and some you shouldn't
Ray Baker : Total Points Scored 10.5 O/U- Over
HON is off to a surprising 4-0 start, and a large part of that success has come off of rookie icon Ray Baker. Ray Baker is a rookie not carrying his team on his back per se, but instead carrying his team on his leg. When it comes to his ability, “Ask and thou shall receive” may be his motto, because he is a perfect 12/12 on extra point conversions and 12/12 on Field Goals. From these we can derive his average points, given he usually puts up and makes 3 Field Goals and 3 Extra Points, he makes 12 points a game on average. Week 1 he put up 11 points, Week 2 he put up 12 points, In week 3 he put up 15 points, and in Week 4 he put up 10 points. HON is also facing the Juggernaut of AZ, so their stout defense might make them stall out in Field Goal range a lot more. With his on average PPG being 1.5 higher than the line, and with AZ’s defense much less likely to give up TDs, Baker should hit the over, and this pick is my lock of the week.
Absolute Unit : Completions 21.5 O/U - Under
Well you may be staring at this pick with some confusion, which is well warranted. Absolute Unit sits on the most stacked offense in the league at YKW, and he is one of the highest rated QB’s in the ISFL. However, he sits at 4th worst in total completions and QBR in the league, and has around a pick and a half a game. Absolute Unit has also never had 22 or more receptions in a game. Also, the team Unit is going up against is the Fire Salamanders, which has the most stacked defense in terms of TPE. Berlin also had a nice haul from a blockbuster trade with NOLA, stacking their already stacked defense even more. If you pick the over, your bank account will be as transparent as Absolute Unit’s team mascot. Be smart, pick the under.
Howard Coward : Rushing Yards 75.5 O/U - Over
Howard Coward is much of a coward when it comes to his last 2 games, putting up 100 yards against Honolulu and 90 yards against Orange County. Howard Coward seems to be hitting his stride here, and when you dig into defensive TPE, you can see the reason. Both HON and OCO have the 2 worst defenses in the league, TPE wise, and more or less acted like turnstiles for Howard Coward to walk right through. So why you may ask, is this an over? Because their next opponent is the gutted NOLA squad, who sits 4th in terms of worst defense in TPE. They already give up 149 rushing yards a game, so I think Howard Coward will be eating well tonight. Howard Coward easily gets 76 yards running through a depleted NOLA, take the over.
Scoonie McSix : Receptions 6.5 O/U - Over
Scoonie McSix is San Jose’s top receiver already this year, averaging 8 catches a game. This week San Jose is going up against the New York Silverbacks, who have a Mid-Tier Defense as far as TPE is concerned, but when you look into averages, NYS isn’t as balanced as you may think. While their defense gives up only 77.2 Rushing Yards, they give out 416 Passing Yards! Sure this O/U is receptions, but teams that have faced up against NYS have found their Anti-Air is coming from World War 1. Given Scoonie McSix already has a tendency to get 7 receptions or more, and NYS Air Raid system is off currently, I feel confident Scoonie McSix can hit the over here.
Pan Cakes : Pancakes 7.5 O/U - Under
Now the Offensive Line mechanics are harder to guess, and given I don’t know specifically who he will be lined up against, it’s harder to make a good solid guess on the O/U here. However it doesn’t mean we can’t try, so let’s get cracking the code. Pan Cakes sits with the New York Silverbacks, and he is listed as a Tackle, so most likely he will face a DE or a LB. NYS matchup is the San Jose Sabercats, so their DE is Alex Armstrong or Mike Scott. Since Pan Cakes is the 2cd best tackle on NYS, we will give him Alex Armstrong to square up against. Alex Armstrong out strengths and out agility Pan Cakes, so I’ll say Alex does well tonight, and Pan Cakes might not live up to his name's sake today. You may be saying though that Pan Cakes averages 8.5 Pancakes a game, 1 over the O/U. While that is true, when looking game by game, Pan Cakes is in benefit of a statistical outlier here. His game counts are 6,7,7, and 14 pancakes, which means his average is boosted by 1 good showing. Given he is the loser in this fantasy matchup this week and his tendency to have 7 or less pancakes a game, Pan Cakes is looking more like Walmart Pancake mix, and not Bisquick Pancake mix. He hits the under today
King Zeus : Passes Defended + Tackles 8.5 O/U - Over
This is one I’m not so confident about, given that his average on Passes Defended and Tackles is 9, and that he is going up against a much more pass-heavy team in Chicago. I’m Running out of time, so I guess I’ll take the Over.
I have different confidence levels in all of these picks, so I have some you should take and some you shouldn't