04-26-2023, 07:03 PM
(This post was last modified: 04-30-2023, 10:43 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 5 times in total.)
Welcome back to your last-minute pick tips from me, Ult! I try and badly analyze this week’s prop bets and try and give you an answer based on Advanced Statistics (Looking at Averages) and Expert Opinions (My Gut Feeling). However, before we get into this week's props, let us look at last week’s prop bets, and how the betting community did.
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1075671115936059494/1100924403610554378/image.png)
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1075671115936059494/1100924502004748348/image.png)
And…. Oh dear Christ it was a slaughter. Absolute Unit was slated for 21 completions on the day, until Overtime hit, and OT is the bane of the under bettor. AU got 2 more competitions in to squeak 23 completions on the day and killed my bet and CROney3’s Parlay, but Sebester hit one of his two bets this week. Howard Coward performed to expectation and made mincemeat of a DOA NOLA. I can’t say the same for Sconnie McSix, as the sim gods graced him with butter fingers, only catching 6 of 11 targets and killing all bookies this week. Ray Baker missed his first field goal of this season, but it didn’t matter, as he only got 2 FGA and 3 XPA, meaning he couldn’t have hit the over if he didn’t want to, much to the chagrin too my and CROney3’s prediction. Pancakes are really a flip of the coin, so avoid them, and both me and CROney3 missed on our coinflip, as Pan Cakes was cooking with Nesquick this week and hit the over. King Zeus Barely hit the over, scaring both the bejeezus out of, again, me and CROney3. This week's sportsbooks did horrible, only hitting 36% of total bets and 50% on their bets of the week, with Ult having the worst week of them all. Let's drink some Hennesy, get this week out of our minds, and go on with this week's props.
Willer Miller : Passing Yards 255.5 O/U - Under
Willer Miller is having a pretty good first part of a season for a QB, with 1480 Yards, 9 TD’s and only 2 INT’s in 5 games. He does average 296 Yards of passing a game, but his opponents surely don't. The Berlin Fire Salamanders are this year’s Denver Broncos, having atrocious offense and a championship-level defense. Berlin only lets UP 205.4 yards in the air, and the one time a QB beat today’s over mark was 98 OVR P. Beatz. I expect the Berlin Defense to hold, give me the under and make this my lock of the week.
Howard Coward : Rushing Yards 65.5 O/U - Over
Last week Howard Coward put up 98 yards against a substandard Defense in NOLA, and he faces another substandard defense in the Chicago Butchers. CHI’s Defense is only marginally better, and is a bit better on the D-Line than NOLA, but it won’t help this defense I feel like. Take the Over, be smart, trust Howard Coward
Dick Grayson : Receiving Yards 72.5 O/U - Under
As much as NOLA is my home team here and I have great hopes for him in the future, I can’t take the over here. He averages 62.4 receiving yards a game, and even though they are facing Honolulu, who has a terrible defense, NOLA’s offense is still worse than HON’s defense. He can hit over 72.5 yards, but I’m just not feeling it, take the under.
NCADV RAINN : Receptions 4.5 O/U - Over
I am running out of time, again, so I’ll keep it short and sweet. N. RAINN is a great rookie, and averages 5.4 receptions a game. 4.5 is a super low O/U for a 2cd string WR, so I would just take the over on perceived value alone. Over, clean and simple
John Stark VIII : Tackles 6.5 O/U - Over
This is a tough one, I’ll take the Over here. John Stark Averages 6.6 Tackles a game, and Tackles seems to be a harder stat to pin down, and last weeks with Zeus PD+Tackles barely hit, so I don’t have much confidence In this pick, but I do have confidence with John Stark VIII, a fellow rookie. I’ll take the Over here
Bengal Tigerheart : Pancakes 6.5 O/U - Over
So uh, Pancakes are weird, I don’t know how to pick em, so uh, heads over, tails under. Annnnnnddddddd it’s heads, so Over
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison : Punts inside 20 2.5 O/U - Under
On principal, Punters rarely get opportunities inside the 20, so getting 3 seems like madness, for any punter. Plus AZ is a Godlike team, so I doubt their punter is getting any action here, take the under
![[Image: image.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1075671115936059494/1100942915401949237/image.png)
Here is my Weekly Bets and Bets of the Week
And…. Oh dear Christ it was a slaughter. Absolute Unit was slated for 21 completions on the day, until Overtime hit, and OT is the bane of the under bettor. AU got 2 more competitions in to squeak 23 completions on the day and killed my bet and CROney3’s Parlay, but Sebester hit one of his two bets this week. Howard Coward performed to expectation and made mincemeat of a DOA NOLA. I can’t say the same for Sconnie McSix, as the sim gods graced him with butter fingers, only catching 6 of 11 targets and killing all bookies this week. Ray Baker missed his first field goal of this season, but it didn’t matter, as he only got 2 FGA and 3 XPA, meaning he couldn’t have hit the over if he didn’t want to, much to the chagrin too my and CROney3’s prediction. Pancakes are really a flip of the coin, so avoid them, and both me and CROney3 missed on our coinflip, as Pan Cakes was cooking with Nesquick this week and hit the over. King Zeus Barely hit the over, scaring both the bejeezus out of, again, me and CROney3. This week's sportsbooks did horrible, only hitting 36% of total bets and 50% on their bets of the week, with Ult having the worst week of them all. Let's drink some Hennesy, get this week out of our minds, and go on with this week's props.
Willer Miller : Passing Yards 255.5 O/U - Under
Willer Miller is having a pretty good first part of a season for a QB, with 1480 Yards, 9 TD’s and only 2 INT’s in 5 games. He does average 296 Yards of passing a game, but his opponents surely don't. The Berlin Fire Salamanders are this year’s Denver Broncos, having atrocious offense and a championship-level defense. Berlin only lets UP 205.4 yards in the air, and the one time a QB beat today’s over mark was 98 OVR P. Beatz. I expect the Berlin Defense to hold, give me the under and make this my lock of the week.
Howard Coward : Rushing Yards 65.5 O/U - Over
Last week Howard Coward put up 98 yards against a substandard Defense in NOLA, and he faces another substandard defense in the Chicago Butchers. CHI’s Defense is only marginally better, and is a bit better on the D-Line than NOLA, but it won’t help this defense I feel like. Take the Over, be smart, trust Howard Coward
Dick Grayson : Receiving Yards 72.5 O/U - Under
As much as NOLA is my home team here and I have great hopes for him in the future, I can’t take the over here. He averages 62.4 receiving yards a game, and even though they are facing Honolulu, who has a terrible defense, NOLA’s offense is still worse than HON’s defense. He can hit over 72.5 yards, but I’m just not feeling it, take the under.
NCADV RAINN : Receptions 4.5 O/U - Over
I am running out of time, again, so I’ll keep it short and sweet. N. RAINN is a great rookie, and averages 5.4 receptions a game. 4.5 is a super low O/U for a 2cd string WR, so I would just take the over on perceived value alone. Over, clean and simple
John Stark VIII : Tackles 6.5 O/U - Over
This is a tough one, I’ll take the Over here. John Stark Averages 6.6 Tackles a game, and Tackles seems to be a harder stat to pin down, and last weeks with Zeus PD+Tackles barely hit, so I don’t have much confidence In this pick, but I do have confidence with John Stark VIII, a fellow rookie. I’ll take the Over here
Bengal Tigerheart : Pancakes 6.5 O/U - Over
So uh, Pancakes are weird, I don’t know how to pick em, so uh, heads over, tails under. Annnnnnddddddd it’s heads, so Over
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison : Punts inside 20 2.5 O/U - Under
On principal, Punters rarely get opportunities inside the 20, so getting 3 seems like madness, for any punter. Plus AZ is a Godlike team, so I doubt their punter is getting any action here, take the under
Here is my Weekly Bets and Bets of the Week
![[Image: Ultimatedestroye.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/Ultimatedestroye.gif)
![[Image: Ultimatedestroyes.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/Ultimatedestroyes.gif)
