04-27-2023, 11:25 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2023, 09:06 AM by H0PPY75. Edited 1 time in total.)
The rookie focused week, even with 2 of the bets featuring non-rookies, was a lot of fun to watch! I’m also enjoying the extra competition this season with Ultimate and Lips making their own articles. Make sure to check those out to see what everyone is thinking (even if Ultimate can’t get his out on time :kek. I also fucked up again and didn't include the JJJJ bet in the table so one of these weeks I'll make sure to not screw up.
Welp, looks like the rust from last week has worn off and I’m back in the game! Unfortunately, the one slam dunk prop that I thought was a sure thing did not hit, ruining my chance at a big payday. Thankfully I don’t actually put a ton of money on these so these articles will help cover those losses. But damn, 7 for 7 would have been sweet!
Willier Miller (SAR) – under 255.5 Pass yds; Ya know, I think Miller could have hit the over on this one if that Sarasota defense wasn’t so dominant. They forced multiple turnovers in Berlin territory so Miller and company didn’t need to march the field to score. So not exactly the game script I had anticipated but also not totally surprised with the reason behind the outcome. Berlin is a team that boggles my mind still.
Howard Coward (AUS) – under 65.5 Rush yds; “I almost wanted to stop saying these bets are slam dunks because the sim is gonna sim,” is a quote from my last article in looking at this bet. We got simmed hard on this one. Coward had 40 yards part way through the 2nd quarter. He ended up with 40 yards on 9 carries at the end of the game. Austin got behind early 3rd quarter and the sim forced more passing, so even going against one of the worst run defenses in the league, sim is gonna sim. This one killed a lot of people.
Dick Grayson (NOLA) – over 72.5 Receiving yds; NOLA will be forced to pass the ball a ton this season with their rebuilding efforts, so 10 targets for Grayson seemed about right. Only 4 catches though concerns me, but he took a 58 yarder to the house so he was able to hit the over basically on that play alone. This offense will continue to air it out so I think most passing props for NOLA can be guessed through that lens.
NCADV RAINN (COL) – over 4.5 Receptions; Oh boy, this one had me puckered. RAINN sat at 4 receptions for about 2 full quarters, barely even getting a target during that time. Some unfortunate sim luck for Colorado gave them the ball back with about 1 minute left to play. RAINN quickly got 2 more receptions in that time to hit the over, so I was able to un-pucker. RAINN appears to be stepping up into the #1 role for Colorado so I’m sure we’ll see some more bets for this youngster in the future.
John Stark VIII (OCO) – under 6.5 Tackles; I’m still not entirely sure what to look for in regards to tackle props. San Jose only ran the ball 12 times (13 if you count Farrell’s -2 yarder). But the backs and tight end saw 11 receptions so there should have been ample opportunity for Stark to get even close to 6 tackles. I didn’t feel great about the under but seeing only 3 tackles was surprising. It was a low scoring game overall so that may have played a part in this outcome.
Bengal Tigerheart (BAL) – over 6.5 Pancakes; The other non-rookie crushed it to no one’s surprise. I don’t like these props ONLY because I can’t tell during the game how it is progressing. And some ISFL streams don’t show the box score after each match so I then have to wait for the Wendex to come out. But yeah, this one went about how I expected, with Baltimore passing 43 times and running another 28 times, so there were ample opportunities to get some pancakes for the big fella. So I’m happy to see this one hit as expected.
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison (AZ) – under 2.5 Punts inside 20; Only 5 punt attempts for Arizona this game as they made some late pushes to get into scoring position, so there wasn’t enough opportunity to get the 3 punts inside the 20 needed. I know At least one of the punts ended up a touchback but JJJJ didn’t get very close on any of the others. While these types of bets come down to opportunity, I’m sure they’re still a flip of the coin type bet.
Well that was fun! Let’s see if we can run it back again for week 7!
OCO/HON – o/u 249.5 Rush yds; Our first team oriented bet of the season and it’s a multi-team prop. This one should seem obvious as combined, these teams average 238 yards per game. Those are the top 2 rushing offenses in the conference. They are both middle of the road in terms of rush defense, with a combined 201 per game. Since they don’t even combine to get the over and with both rush defenses being ok, I’m taking the under on this one.
Deshawn Penne (AUS) – o/u 4.5 Receptions; Oh man, I can’t pin down any stat that makes me confident in either the over or under. Penne has had a couple games over 4.5 catches but many games under. Target distribution is all over the place. Their opponent, San Jose, is also all over the place for TE targets and receptions. Simply because I have Penne on my dynasty team and have been disappointed, I’m taking the under. Not putting any money on this one though since it feels like a legit coin flip.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) – o/u 74.5 Receiving yds; Mandrews is currently averaging the most yardage per game of his career, which is 66.8 yards per game. He only has 2 games this season over 75 yards and seems to be used mostly in the short game. Counterpoint though, they go up against NOLA who is currently shipping all of their top players out. So normally I’d worry about New York getting up big and running for the 2nd half, but New York is also struggling this season. So I think they will remain throwing and McHollywood will either break a long one or get enough dink and dunk targets to hit the over.
Baltimore Total Offense – o/u 386.5 Total yds; Baltimore has the most potent offense in the league, averaging 399 yards per game. Should be an easy over, right? Well, Sarasota has one of the best defenses in the league, although the stats don’t necessarily flesh that out. They force plenty of turnovers so opposing offenses get additional chances to put up extra yardage. Which is why I’m not necessarily scared of this defense for this yardage prop. I’m going to take the over on this one.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) – o/u 89.5 Scrimmage yds; My initial thought upon seeing this one? Easy over bet. But looking a bit closer this year, it seems like Archipelago is being slightly phased out by Akinfenwa in terms of total touches. They also go up against Arizona, which has the best run defense in the league and does pretty well against running backs in terms of receiving yards. I love the player, and all it will take is one long catch or run, but I’ll be taking the under on this bet.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) – o/u 6.5 Tackles; Ronson, who was a fantasy darling last season, isn’t quite lighting up the stat box this season. Averaging 7 tackles a game, he appears to be much better in losses than wins. Against Colorado, their upcoming opponent, linebacker really do not pile up the tackles. I see a win for Chicago coming and so I don’t think Ronson gets enough to hit the over, so I’m taking the under for tackles.
CTC Defense – o/u 6.5 Pass Deflections; Cape Town is 4th in the league in pass deflections, averaging about 6 per game. A big HOWEVER, they would likely have many more as they only had 1 against Orange County, who only attempted 20 passes. All other teams have thrown at least 35 passes per game, so plenty more opportunities to get above their average. And what do you know, Cape Town travels to Berlin, the team attempting the most passes per game this season. With a strong defense getting plenty of opportunities, I’m taking the over on this one.
Well, I can already tell you, this week won’t be as good as last week. These seem hard to predict based on multiple factors. But, I’m going with a 3-leg parlay, using the OCO/HON under, Baltimore over, and CTC over. I will likely add another million to the Baltimore over as that’s the only one I have any real confidence in. These types of bets are always fun but damn it if they’re not super frustrating to predict. Well good luck to you all this week! Thanks again for reading!
Welp, looks like the rust from last week has worn off and I’m back in the game! Unfortunately, the one slam dunk prop that I thought was a sure thing did not hit, ruining my chance at a big payday. Thankfully I don’t actually put a ton of money on these so these articles will help cover those losses. But damn, 7 for 7 would have been sweet!
Willier Miller (SAR) – under 255.5 Pass yds; Ya know, I think Miller could have hit the over on this one if that Sarasota defense wasn’t so dominant. They forced multiple turnovers in Berlin territory so Miller and company didn’t need to march the field to score. So not exactly the game script I had anticipated but also not totally surprised with the reason behind the outcome. Berlin is a team that boggles my mind still.
Howard Coward (AUS) – under 65.5 Rush yds; “I almost wanted to stop saying these bets are slam dunks because the sim is gonna sim,” is a quote from my last article in looking at this bet. We got simmed hard on this one. Coward had 40 yards part way through the 2nd quarter. He ended up with 40 yards on 9 carries at the end of the game. Austin got behind early 3rd quarter and the sim forced more passing, so even going against one of the worst run defenses in the league, sim is gonna sim. This one killed a lot of people.
Dick Grayson (NOLA) – over 72.5 Receiving yds; NOLA will be forced to pass the ball a ton this season with their rebuilding efforts, so 10 targets for Grayson seemed about right. Only 4 catches though concerns me, but he took a 58 yarder to the house so he was able to hit the over basically on that play alone. This offense will continue to air it out so I think most passing props for NOLA can be guessed through that lens.
NCADV RAINN (COL) – over 4.5 Receptions; Oh boy, this one had me puckered. RAINN sat at 4 receptions for about 2 full quarters, barely even getting a target during that time. Some unfortunate sim luck for Colorado gave them the ball back with about 1 minute left to play. RAINN quickly got 2 more receptions in that time to hit the over, so I was able to un-pucker. RAINN appears to be stepping up into the #1 role for Colorado so I’m sure we’ll see some more bets for this youngster in the future.
John Stark VIII (OCO) – under 6.5 Tackles; I’m still not entirely sure what to look for in regards to tackle props. San Jose only ran the ball 12 times (13 if you count Farrell’s -2 yarder). But the backs and tight end saw 11 receptions so there should have been ample opportunity for Stark to get even close to 6 tackles. I didn’t feel great about the under but seeing only 3 tackles was surprising. It was a low scoring game overall so that may have played a part in this outcome.
Bengal Tigerheart (BAL) – over 6.5 Pancakes; The other non-rookie crushed it to no one’s surprise. I don’t like these props ONLY because I can’t tell during the game how it is progressing. And some ISFL streams don’t show the box score after each match so I then have to wait for the Wendex to come out. But yeah, this one went about how I expected, with Baltimore passing 43 times and running another 28 times, so there were ample opportunities to get some pancakes for the big fella. So I’m happy to see this one hit as expected.
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison (AZ) – under 2.5 Punts inside 20; Only 5 punt attempts for Arizona this game as they made some late pushes to get into scoring position, so there wasn’t enough opportunity to get the 3 punts inside the 20 needed. I know At least one of the punts ended up a touchback but JJJJ didn’t get very close on any of the others. While these types of bets come down to opportunity, I’m sure they’re still a flip of the coin type bet.
Well that was fun! Let’s see if we can run it back again for week 7!
OCO/HON – o/u 249.5 Rush yds; Our first team oriented bet of the season and it’s a multi-team prop. This one should seem obvious as combined, these teams average 238 yards per game. Those are the top 2 rushing offenses in the conference. They are both middle of the road in terms of rush defense, with a combined 201 per game. Since they don’t even combine to get the over and with both rush defenses being ok, I’m taking the under on this one.
Deshawn Penne (AUS) – o/u 4.5 Receptions; Oh man, I can’t pin down any stat that makes me confident in either the over or under. Penne has had a couple games over 4.5 catches but many games under. Target distribution is all over the place. Their opponent, San Jose, is also all over the place for TE targets and receptions. Simply because I have Penne on my dynasty team and have been disappointed, I’m taking the under. Not putting any money on this one though since it feels like a legit coin flip.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) – o/u 74.5 Receiving yds; Mandrews is currently averaging the most yardage per game of his career, which is 66.8 yards per game. He only has 2 games this season over 75 yards and seems to be used mostly in the short game. Counterpoint though, they go up against NOLA who is currently shipping all of their top players out. So normally I’d worry about New York getting up big and running for the 2nd half, but New York is also struggling this season. So I think they will remain throwing and McHollywood will either break a long one or get enough dink and dunk targets to hit the over.
Baltimore Total Offense – o/u 386.5 Total yds; Baltimore has the most potent offense in the league, averaging 399 yards per game. Should be an easy over, right? Well, Sarasota has one of the best defenses in the league, although the stats don’t necessarily flesh that out. They force plenty of turnovers so opposing offenses get additional chances to put up extra yardage. Which is why I’m not necessarily scared of this defense for this yardage prop. I’m going to take the over on this one.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) – o/u 89.5 Scrimmage yds; My initial thought upon seeing this one? Easy over bet. But looking a bit closer this year, it seems like Archipelago is being slightly phased out by Akinfenwa in terms of total touches. They also go up against Arizona, which has the best run defense in the league and does pretty well against running backs in terms of receiving yards. I love the player, and all it will take is one long catch or run, but I’ll be taking the under on this bet.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) – o/u 6.5 Tackles; Ronson, who was a fantasy darling last season, isn’t quite lighting up the stat box this season. Averaging 7 tackles a game, he appears to be much better in losses than wins. Against Colorado, their upcoming opponent, linebacker really do not pile up the tackles. I see a win for Chicago coming and so I don’t think Ronson gets enough to hit the over, so I’m taking the under for tackles.
CTC Defense – o/u 6.5 Pass Deflections; Cape Town is 4th in the league in pass deflections, averaging about 6 per game. A big HOWEVER, they would likely have many more as they only had 1 against Orange County, who only attempted 20 passes. All other teams have thrown at least 35 passes per game, so plenty more opportunities to get above their average. And what do you know, Cape Town travels to Berlin, the team attempting the most passes per game this season. With a strong defense getting plenty of opportunities, I’m taking the over on this one.
Well, I can already tell you, this week won’t be as good as last week. These seem hard to predict based on multiple factors. But, I’m going with a 3-leg parlay, using the OCO/HON under, Baltimore over, and CTC over. I will likely add another million to the Baltimore over as that’s the only one I have any real confidence in. These types of bets are always fun but damn it if they’re not super frustrating to predict. Well good luck to you all this week! Thanks again for reading!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni