05-01-2023, 05:24 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-04-2023, 09:31 AM by H0PPY75. Edited 2 times in total.)
Lips Picks Week 8
This ship is going down. Week 7 absolutely torched me, but I will persevere. Fortunately these articles do enough to counter act my terrible money burning habit. I think I currently hold the lowest end of the correct prediction percentages so this week I am going to try and switch it up. Before we get to this week’s props lets take a look at last week’s dumpster fire.
Week 7 Review
OCO/HON Total Rushing Yards (249.5) UNDER – This was the first bet of the night and one that led me to some believe I had somewhat of an idea that I knew what I was doing. Unfortunately, that did not remain the case for the rest of the night. This felt like a pretty comfortable under pick given both teams track records for not giving up many rushing yards. It was close though with the game totaling 239 rushing yards just 11 yards short of hitting the over. In my opinion this was probably on the higher end of what this game could have looked like. I will take the W.
Deshawn Penne (AUS) Receptions (4.5) UNDER – Penne didn’t even show up in the stat box until the end of the 3rd quarter catching a touchdown pass and then quickly following up with another completion. Unfortunately for Penne that was the last he would see of the ball. AUS still managed to win though which looked good for my predictions. I was also fairly confident in this one, which is why it made its way into my parlay. Thank you, Penne, for being reliable but not too reliable.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) Receiving Yards (74.5) OVER – Fuck this, seriously, going up against NOLA should have had ever receiver on NYS hitting 100 yards. McHollywood let me down here costing me $1M and points for my fantasy team. Falling flat with only 40 yards for the entire game. Maybe it was just an unfortunate sim that found fewer targets for McHollywood but it is still disappointing.
BAL Total Offense (386.5) OVER – Seems like a big number but BAL came through and hit it. Having previous games with BAL hitting 400+ made this one feel good. TY BAL for being the 3rd and last prop I won that night.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) Scrimmage Yards (89.5) UNDER – YKW switched it up and utilized Archipelago here more than in previous games. The Dynamic Duo of RBs for the Wraiths absolutely lit up AZ which I don’t think anyone expected. YKW made AZ look the like the DSFL with how poor their defense was that game, hopefully they can turn it around or they are going to end up at the wrong end of the table come the end of the season.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) Tackles (6.5) UNDER – Defensive props are a crap shoot in my opinion, but gambling isn’t fun unless it’s close. Well, this one wasn’t close. Ronson hit 14 tackles blowing the line out of the water. Good job Ronson I am sure CHI is proud of you.
CTC Passes Defended (6.5) OVER – The last of the props for week 7 and the last loss I had to suffer through. CTC ended the game with 5 PDs which was underwhelming but understandable. As I mentioned in my previous article PDs seem to either feast or famine and unfortunately CTC’s defense wasn’t eating much this week.
Week 7 Overall
Wagered: $8,000,000
Payout: $5,700,000
Let’s not tell my wife about this one.
Week 8 Analysis
Blaine Falco (NYS) Completions (19.5) UNDER – NYS is sitting in the bottom third of attempted passes, averaging 31 per game. Falco has a completion percentage of 60.9% which would give him an average of 18.6 completions per game. With that information we can expect Falco to hit the UNDER let’s add to that that CTC has a strong pass defense and this feels like a lock for the under.
Tyler One (OCO) Rushing Yards (45.5) UNDER – Tyler One has only run for more than 46 yards in two games, once against NOLA (expected) and the other time against CTC where Tyler racked up 64 yards with a long run of 18 yards. OCO has a fairly balanced pass/run game scheme with Tyler acting as RB#2 averaging 10-12 carries a game. SAR has a mid tier rush defense but if they were able to hold Archipelago under 45 yards, they can hold Tyler One to it as well.
NCADV RAINN (COL) Receiving Yards (74.5) OVER – RAINN doesn’t get a ton of receptions per game but has made each one count. He has only had under 74 receiving yards in two games. Going up this week against AUS who has put up a decent defensive effort in past weeks, I still see RAINN going for 80+.
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jamison (AZ) Missed Kicks (1.5) UNDER – Oh cool another kicking prop. These are so hard to predict and are just a coinflip. There are so many different components that go into kicking, including field position and offensive power. AZ has been looking so weak the last few games. Perhaps JJJJ is going to be stuck punting all week. JJJJ has been missing a kick or two just about every week, though usually only on 40yds+ of which AZ has attempted every game. I don’t think AZ will have as much time scoring against CHI or gaining good field position, so I don’t see JJJJ attempting many from 40+ this week and will maybe miss one but I don’t see him missing two.
Great Khali (AUS) Pancakes (3.5) UNDER – Against run heavy teams we have seen Khali rack up as many as 10 pancakes in a game but against more pass heavy and balanced teams Khali generally only gets about 3 pancakes so this seems like a fair line. AUS is playing COL this week, a pass heavy team. Therefore I am going with the UNDER on this one.
Liath Squirrel (HON) Tackles (4.5) OVER – NEVER ROOT AGAINST HON. I have made the decision to tail HON all the way to the Ultimus.
This week I am going to take my advice all the way down to the cage, $1M on everything and a 3-leg parlay. Shoutout to the casino for only having 6 props this week and likely saving me $1M. Below is a quick summary of this week’s bets.
Glad I was able to crank this out in time for this week’s bets. Be forewarned I am violently hungover, so I didn’t do as much research this time. Who knows maybe that will help me. Happy betting!
Season 41 Totals
Total Wagered: $22,000,000 ($7,000,000 pending w8)
Total Profit: -$3,600,000
This ship is going down. Week 7 absolutely torched me, but I will persevere. Fortunately these articles do enough to counter act my terrible money burning habit. I think I currently hold the lowest end of the correct prediction percentages so this week I am going to try and switch it up. Before we get to this week’s props lets take a look at last week’s dumpster fire.
Week 7 Review
OCO/HON Total Rushing Yards (249.5) UNDER – This was the first bet of the night and one that led me to some believe I had somewhat of an idea that I knew what I was doing. Unfortunately, that did not remain the case for the rest of the night. This felt like a pretty comfortable under pick given both teams track records for not giving up many rushing yards. It was close though with the game totaling 239 rushing yards just 11 yards short of hitting the over. In my opinion this was probably on the higher end of what this game could have looked like. I will take the W.
Deshawn Penne (AUS) Receptions (4.5) UNDER – Penne didn’t even show up in the stat box until the end of the 3rd quarter catching a touchdown pass and then quickly following up with another completion. Unfortunately for Penne that was the last he would see of the ball. AUS still managed to win though which looked good for my predictions. I was also fairly confident in this one, which is why it made its way into my parlay. Thank you, Penne, for being reliable but not too reliable.
Mandrews McHollywood (NYS) Receiving Yards (74.5) OVER – Fuck this, seriously, going up against NOLA should have had ever receiver on NYS hitting 100 yards. McHollywood let me down here costing me $1M and points for my fantasy team. Falling flat with only 40 yards for the entire game. Maybe it was just an unfortunate sim that found fewer targets for McHollywood but it is still disappointing.
BAL Total Offense (386.5) OVER – Seems like a big number but BAL came through and hit it. Having previous games with BAL hitting 400+ made this one feel good. TY BAL for being the 3rd and last prop I won that night.
Kumquat Archipelago (YKW) Scrimmage Yards (89.5) UNDER – YKW switched it up and utilized Archipelago here more than in previous games. The Dynamic Duo of RBs for the Wraiths absolutely lit up AZ which I don’t think anyone expected. YKW made AZ look the like the DSFL with how poor their defense was that game, hopefully they can turn it around or they are going to end up at the wrong end of the table come the end of the season.
Rumble Ronson (CHI) Tackles (6.5) UNDER – Defensive props are a crap shoot in my opinion, but gambling isn’t fun unless it’s close. Well, this one wasn’t close. Ronson hit 14 tackles blowing the line out of the water. Good job Ronson I am sure CHI is proud of you.
CTC Passes Defended (6.5) OVER – The last of the props for week 7 and the last loss I had to suffer through. CTC ended the game with 5 PDs which was underwhelming but understandable. As I mentioned in my previous article PDs seem to either feast or famine and unfortunately CTC’s defense wasn’t eating much this week.
Week 7 Overall
Wagered: $8,000,000
Payout: $5,700,000
Let’s not tell my wife about this one.
Week 8 Analysis
Blaine Falco (NYS) Completions (19.5) UNDER – NYS is sitting in the bottom third of attempted passes, averaging 31 per game. Falco has a completion percentage of 60.9% which would give him an average of 18.6 completions per game. With that information we can expect Falco to hit the UNDER let’s add to that that CTC has a strong pass defense and this feels like a lock for the under.
Tyler One (OCO) Rushing Yards (45.5) UNDER – Tyler One has only run for more than 46 yards in two games, once against NOLA (expected) and the other time against CTC where Tyler racked up 64 yards with a long run of 18 yards. OCO has a fairly balanced pass/run game scheme with Tyler acting as RB#2 averaging 10-12 carries a game. SAR has a mid tier rush defense but if they were able to hold Archipelago under 45 yards, they can hold Tyler One to it as well.
NCADV RAINN (COL) Receiving Yards (74.5) OVER – RAINN doesn’t get a ton of receptions per game but has made each one count. He has only had under 74 receiving yards in two games. Going up this week against AUS who has put up a decent defensive effort in past weeks, I still see RAINN going for 80+.
Jayme Jayne Jay-Jamison (AZ) Missed Kicks (1.5) UNDER – Oh cool another kicking prop. These are so hard to predict and are just a coinflip. There are so many different components that go into kicking, including field position and offensive power. AZ has been looking so weak the last few games. Perhaps JJJJ is going to be stuck punting all week. JJJJ has been missing a kick or two just about every week, though usually only on 40yds+ of which AZ has attempted every game. I don’t think AZ will have as much time scoring against CHI or gaining good field position, so I don’t see JJJJ attempting many from 40+ this week and will maybe miss one but I don’t see him missing two.
Great Khali (AUS) Pancakes (3.5) UNDER – Against run heavy teams we have seen Khali rack up as many as 10 pancakes in a game but against more pass heavy and balanced teams Khali generally only gets about 3 pancakes so this seems like a fair line. AUS is playing COL this week, a pass heavy team. Therefore I am going with the UNDER on this one.
Liath Squirrel (HON) Tackles (4.5) OVER – NEVER ROOT AGAINST HON. I have made the decision to tail HON all the way to the Ultimus.
This week I am going to take my advice all the way down to the cage, $1M on everything and a 3-leg parlay. Shoutout to the casino for only having 6 props this week and likely saving me $1M. Below is a quick summary of this week’s bets.
Glad I was able to crank this out in time for this week’s bets. Be forewarned I am violently hungover, so I didn’t do as much research this time. Who knows maybe that will help me. Happy betting!
Season 41 Totals
Total Wagered: $22,000,000 ($7,000,000 pending w8)
Total Profit: -$3,600,000