05-08-2023, 09:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-18-2023, 09:00 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 3 times in total.)
Week 10 was a blur for me, having coincided with Cinco de Mayo I didn’t get much of an opportunity to watch the games. Everyone at the party I was at did get an earful about some fantasy fake football simulation league I play in and devote dozens of hours a week to reading and producing media for though. I vaguely remember repeatedly asking how the bets were doing because I would look away from the discord for 30 minutes at a time. I appreciate everyone who put up with me that night. In the end it seems like my bets were not that eventful, going three for four and of course missing the one with the most money on it. In the end I lost $400k. Looking across all my picks, not just the ones I put money on I went 5/7 so not bad! Definitely pushing my average up, I may even be over 50% at this point. Below is my Week 10 bet summary.
Week 10 Review
Nova Montagne (HON) Pass Touchdowns (2.5) Under – From the get go I was sold that this was a lock. AUS rocks a pretty solid pass defense and HON had previously opted for a run game against AUS earlier in the season. Nova finished with 1 TD, what I was surprised by though was the 319 total passing yards. There was a lot of potential for several more passing TDs, but HON only managed to convert two of them. Either way, hopefully some other players on HON can get some love from the casino.
Arizona Rushing Yards (109.5) OVER – Am I dumb? I predicted AZ would do the exact opposite of their game plan earlier in the season. NOPE, AZ came in with a pass heavy offense totaling only 71 rushing yards. This one cost me a huge win, only because I wanted to catch it on a strategy switch up. Played myself. GG AZ GMs.
Lucius Salem (SAR) Receptions (4.5) OVER – A tight end after my own heart. SAR totally blew out CHI last week and Salem played a sizeable part in the game. Totaling 8 receptions and 2 TDs Salem is just goals for a tight end like myself. SAR is having a lot of success with a pass focused game. I will keep an eye out for any lines on SARs passing as unless they are ridiculously high, they will probably hit.
Cruella de Ville (SJS) Tackles (7.5) OVER – Here is my analysis word for word “Yay more defensive props. Cruella has 67 tackles over 9 games so far, averaging just under 7.5 a game. This is too close of a line, for real. This one is 100% a coin flip and the coin is landing on Heads, so I am going with over.” Literal coin flip and Cruella managed 8 tackles against OCO during a massive loss. No money on this one, but makes my picks look better!
Christian Marciano (CTC) Negative Plays (1.5) OVER – Another defensive line that I erred more towards the over just do to NOLA being the opponent. Looks like Marciano only had one sack and no other tackles for a loss. Again no money on this one, but gets balanced out by the Cruella line.
Cedric Wilkins II (COL) Return Yards (42.5) UNDER – Wilkins totaled 25 return yards. I didn’t watch the game but I am going to assume my analysis was correct and YKW opted for touchbacks over allowing returns. I feel bad about not putting money on this one, but come on it’s a kick prop.
BER vs BAL Total Points (39.5) UNDER – Everyone should have seen this coming. Game finished 17-6, no where close to 40. 900k profit.
Week 8 DSFL
Woah, woah, woah, what is this? Casino prop bets for the DSFL? Surely there will be a line for me, Hank Mardukas, Tight End and gambling extraordinaire. Nope. How could @zeagle1 not include a line for me, after I had written all these articles?
Oh.
DSFL Week 8 Analysis
Donovan Winters (POR) Turnovers (1.5) OVER – Before I break this down I am thinking that this counts Interceptions and any fumbles that Winters makes himself. Looking at his current stats Donovan has 8 interceptions over 7 games, averaging 1.14 per game. Also this is somehow his 5th year in the DSFL? Week 8 POR is slated to play MINN who has been doing a great job at intercepting the ball. The Ducks have 8 interceptions this season averaging more than one per game. Kind of a deadly combo I could see the Ducks getting 2 ints this game tipping the scales in their favor. At a time like this it makes me wish I paid attention to INTs while I was sim testing this game. With POR having the 2nd highest thrown interception rate and Minnesota having the 2nd most interceptions I am going over. Maybe it will get balanced out by a sacked fumble.
Sailor Moon (NOR) Rushing Attempts (10.5) OVER – Sailor moon is RB #2 for NOR and has been putting in a lot of work all season. Currently Moon is averaging 10.9 carries per game, fluctuating greatly depending on what kind of game plan NOR is using in the match up. Sailor moon previously had twelve rush attempts in the first meeting of NOR and BBB. At that time BBB was in the pits and NOR got an egregious number of plays in overall. In the most recent few weeks BBB has turned their gameplay around, so I don’t expect NOR to dominate as heavily as they did in the first match up. Though given the success of NORs run game I suspect to see high rushing attempts. I am going over on this one.
Keanu Calhoun (DAL) Receiving Yards (84.5) OVER – DAL may currently be the worse team in the DSFL, though their strong points are a capped QB who should be able to connect with rookie wide receiver Calhoun. Currently Calhoun is averaging 92.1 yards per game off of 5.3 catches, meaning Calhoun is generally catching a deep ball, 17.4 yards per catch. Unfortunate for DAL this week they are going up against TIJ who, though showing some weakness over the last two weeks, is still the top team in the DSFL. TIJ has an okay pass defense, not the top but not the worst. In the previous match up Calhoun was held to 61 total yards, though TIJ has given the WR#1 100+ yards in the majority of their games. Given TIJs propensity to let WR#1 get away with extra yards, and DAL qb being capped, I am going over on this one as well.
Chaos Vert (MINN) Pass Deflections (1.5) OVER – My immediate reaction is this number seems low. Chaos Vert is currently averaging just under 2 PDs per game. In the previous meet up of MINN and POR Vert notched 3 PDs, despite POR only attempting 29 passes. In line with every defensive line I have looked at this one feels like a coin flip and today the coin says OVER! Let’s go Vert, Winnesota.
Bubba Chub (KCC) Pancakes (4.5) UNDER – Another defensive line, another coin flip. Bubba is averaging 4.2 pancakes per game so that doesn’t really give me anything to work with. KCC is playing LON, in their previous match up Mr. Chub got 4 pancakes so yeah there isn’t much to go on here. Coin says under since I haven’t done that a single time yet.
Wing Wang (TIJ) Kicks Made (5.5) OVER – Wang Kick Good. You know this, I know this, we all know this. We also know that TIJ is most likely going to mop the floor with DAL, sorry @DangWookie. There will plenty of opportunities for Wang to be kicking extra points and field goals. This one feels like a gimme on the over. Let’s go plantano!
Because these are DSFL lines and close to my heart part of me wants to bet on all of them, but part of me also thinks because it is the DSFL any sort of scenarios can happen. But it’s not gambling if you know the answers 100% of the time. I am also going with a 4 leg parlay, to spice it up. Below is a summary of this week’s bets!
Total potential payout @ 100% accuracy: $9,000,000
I’d like to thank Zeagle and the Casino for putting together some action on us DSFL players, maybe one day Hank will get his chance to let you all down and rob you of your money.
S41 Totals
Total Wagered: $44,000,000 ($7,000,000 pending DSFL Week 8)
Total Profit: -$2,800,000
Week 10 Review
Nova Montagne (HON) Pass Touchdowns (2.5) Under – From the get go I was sold that this was a lock. AUS rocks a pretty solid pass defense and HON had previously opted for a run game against AUS earlier in the season. Nova finished with 1 TD, what I was surprised by though was the 319 total passing yards. There was a lot of potential for several more passing TDs, but HON only managed to convert two of them. Either way, hopefully some other players on HON can get some love from the casino.
Arizona Rushing Yards (109.5) OVER – Am I dumb? I predicted AZ would do the exact opposite of their game plan earlier in the season. NOPE, AZ came in with a pass heavy offense totaling only 71 rushing yards. This one cost me a huge win, only because I wanted to catch it on a strategy switch up. Played myself. GG AZ GMs.
Lucius Salem (SAR) Receptions (4.5) OVER – A tight end after my own heart. SAR totally blew out CHI last week and Salem played a sizeable part in the game. Totaling 8 receptions and 2 TDs Salem is just goals for a tight end like myself. SAR is having a lot of success with a pass focused game. I will keep an eye out for any lines on SARs passing as unless they are ridiculously high, they will probably hit.
Cruella de Ville (SJS) Tackles (7.5) OVER – Here is my analysis word for word “Yay more defensive props. Cruella has 67 tackles over 9 games so far, averaging just under 7.5 a game. This is too close of a line, for real. This one is 100% a coin flip and the coin is landing on Heads, so I am going with over.” Literal coin flip and Cruella managed 8 tackles against OCO during a massive loss. No money on this one, but makes my picks look better!
Christian Marciano (CTC) Negative Plays (1.5) OVER – Another defensive line that I erred more towards the over just do to NOLA being the opponent. Looks like Marciano only had one sack and no other tackles for a loss. Again no money on this one, but gets balanced out by the Cruella line.
Cedric Wilkins II (COL) Return Yards (42.5) UNDER – Wilkins totaled 25 return yards. I didn’t watch the game but I am going to assume my analysis was correct and YKW opted for touchbacks over allowing returns. I feel bad about not putting money on this one, but come on it’s a kick prop.
BER vs BAL Total Points (39.5) UNDER – Everyone should have seen this coming. Game finished 17-6, no where close to 40. 900k profit.
Week 8 DSFL
Woah, woah, woah, what is this? Casino prop bets for the DSFL? Surely there will be a line for me, Hank Mardukas, Tight End and gambling extraordinaire. Nope. How could @zeagle1 not include a line for me, after I had written all these articles?
Oh.
DSFL Week 8 Analysis
Donovan Winters (POR) Turnovers (1.5) OVER – Before I break this down I am thinking that this counts Interceptions and any fumbles that Winters makes himself. Looking at his current stats Donovan has 8 interceptions over 7 games, averaging 1.14 per game. Also this is somehow his 5th year in the DSFL? Week 8 POR is slated to play MINN who has been doing a great job at intercepting the ball. The Ducks have 8 interceptions this season averaging more than one per game. Kind of a deadly combo I could see the Ducks getting 2 ints this game tipping the scales in their favor. At a time like this it makes me wish I paid attention to INTs while I was sim testing this game. With POR having the 2nd highest thrown interception rate and Minnesota having the 2nd most interceptions I am going over. Maybe it will get balanced out by a sacked fumble.
Sailor Moon (NOR) Rushing Attempts (10.5) OVER – Sailor moon is RB #2 for NOR and has been putting in a lot of work all season. Currently Moon is averaging 10.9 carries per game, fluctuating greatly depending on what kind of game plan NOR is using in the match up. Sailor moon previously had twelve rush attempts in the first meeting of NOR and BBB. At that time BBB was in the pits and NOR got an egregious number of plays in overall. In the most recent few weeks BBB has turned their gameplay around, so I don’t expect NOR to dominate as heavily as they did in the first match up. Though given the success of NORs run game I suspect to see high rushing attempts. I am going over on this one.
Keanu Calhoun (DAL) Receiving Yards (84.5) OVER – DAL may currently be the worse team in the DSFL, though their strong points are a capped QB who should be able to connect with rookie wide receiver Calhoun. Currently Calhoun is averaging 92.1 yards per game off of 5.3 catches, meaning Calhoun is generally catching a deep ball, 17.4 yards per catch. Unfortunate for DAL this week they are going up against TIJ who, though showing some weakness over the last two weeks, is still the top team in the DSFL. TIJ has an okay pass defense, not the top but not the worst. In the previous match up Calhoun was held to 61 total yards, though TIJ has given the WR#1 100+ yards in the majority of their games. Given TIJs propensity to let WR#1 get away with extra yards, and DAL qb being capped, I am going over on this one as well.
Chaos Vert (MINN) Pass Deflections (1.5) OVER – My immediate reaction is this number seems low. Chaos Vert is currently averaging just under 2 PDs per game. In the previous meet up of MINN and POR Vert notched 3 PDs, despite POR only attempting 29 passes. In line with every defensive line I have looked at this one feels like a coin flip and today the coin says OVER! Let’s go Vert, Winnesota.
Bubba Chub (KCC) Pancakes (4.5) UNDER – Another defensive line, another coin flip. Bubba is averaging 4.2 pancakes per game so that doesn’t really give me anything to work with. KCC is playing LON, in their previous match up Mr. Chub got 4 pancakes so yeah there isn’t much to go on here. Coin says under since I haven’t done that a single time yet.
Wing Wang (TIJ) Kicks Made (5.5) OVER – Wang Kick Good. You know this, I know this, we all know this. We also know that TIJ is most likely going to mop the floor with DAL, sorry @DangWookie. There will plenty of opportunities for Wang to be kicking extra points and field goals. This one feels like a gimme on the over. Let’s go plantano!
Because these are DSFL lines and close to my heart part of me wants to bet on all of them, but part of me also thinks because it is the DSFL any sort of scenarios can happen. But it’s not gambling if you know the answers 100% of the time. I am also going with a 4 leg parlay, to spice it up. Below is a summary of this week’s bets!
Total potential payout @ 100% accuracy: $9,000,000
I’d like to thank Zeagle and the Casino for putting together some action on us DSFL players, maybe one day Hank will get his chance to let you all down and rob you of your money.
S41 Totals
Total Wagered: $44,000,000 ($7,000,000 pending DSFL Week 8)
Total Profit: -$2,800,000