05-18-2023, 11:22 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2023, 04:36 PM by Aneeqs. Edited 1 time in total.)
I had to take a quick break from picks as I wasn’t able to get enough time to do back to back nights of articles. But shoutout to @Chicken Lips for helping me make the right picks and make some money in week 15! This will be another shorter article as I’ll do just a quick recap of my last article, which was DSFL week 11 bets. So pitter patter, let’s get at er.
Wolfe McDummy Jr. – Over 39.5 pass attempts. This one was easy. We all knew they would pass it. Lock it up.
Eldroh Kove – Over 97.5 rush yards. I let my Tijuana pride get in the way. I figured they’d get blown out and need to pass more. Didn’t expect to hit the over on pretty much 2 runs right away. Oh well.
Stetson David – Over 6.5 receptions. Another easy over. Stetson is their main weapon and he caught all the balls.
Myrtle Beach Tolliver – Under 0.5 TFLs. Cold streaks for TFLs on both sides. No surprise that the under hit on this one.
Skoomina Hulk a Votta – Under 1.5 punts inside 20. I hate punt props. Luckily my thought process that they wouldn’t punt much came true, as they only punted 3 times. Phew.
Modest Mussorgsky – Under 5.5 pancakes. Got so close to the over with 5. Not much to say, but DSFL bets seem to like the under if they’re not a flashy offensive position.
A good week over all. Lips helped keep that streak going during ISFL week 15. So let’s see what we got in store for the last regular season week for the ISFL!
Wendell Sailor (ARI) – o/u 30.5 Pass Attempts; It’s no secret that Arizona likes to run the ball, so with Sailor being near the bottom in pass attempts this season, this should be an interesting one. During their 8-game win streak, Sailor has only attempted at least 31 passes in 3 games. So his average attempts per game has been heavily skewed by the early season games where he was asked to pass it 40-50 times. In a battle for the top spot in the ASFC, I’m sure they’ll be looking to defeat Hon using the ground game. Therefore, I’m taking the under on this one.
Live Laughlove (COL) – o/u 279.5 Pass yds; LLL is about middle of the road in terms of passing yards per game, averaging 265 per game. So right off the bat, we’ll lean towards the under. However, last time Colorado played Cape Town, LLL attempted 39 passes for just over 300 yards. In a blowout. I don’t see another blowout happening this week, so Colorado will be able utilize Pyxis more (as I’m sure they’d prefer). So for this one, I’m also taking the under.
Jaycee Higgins (SJS) – o/u 3.5 Receptions; Old man Higgins is the 3rd WR on San Jose. Averaging 3.6 receptions per game this season, this line will likely be determined by the number of pass attempts needed by San Jose. If they get down early and need to throw it, I can see Higgins getting 4-5 catches (as evidenced by the last time they played Austin, where 45 passes were attempted and Higgins had 4 catches on 9 targets). I can’t find any pattern for his usage in wins vs losses or high pass attempt vs low pass attempt games. I don’t feel great about it, but I don’t see a repeat of their last matchup happening so I’m taking the under on this low number.
Jay Cue Jr. (NOLA) – o/u 65.5 Scrimmage yds; One final prop for the OG himself? Out of respect I should just take the over, but I’m going to actually analyze this one like I normally would. Combined, Cue is averaging just over 54 scrimmage yards per game. He’s definitely used more in the pass game than in the run game, which does bode well for this prop. I’m sure that’s a product of NOLA being down all the time. I really want to take the over on this one but Orange County seems pretty good at limiting passing yards to running backs. I just don’t see this one happening, so it’s yet another under.
Beniri T'Chawama (BER) – o/u 6.5 Pancakes; Yay, a pancake prop. Well I pulled out some game tape to look at a couple items. Beniri plays left tackle for Berlin, which is good for us. However, he’ll likely be lining up against Xavier Valorian, who has a 10 point strength advantage. Like earlier, I couldn’t find much of a pattern for pancakes in wins versus losses, so let’s look at how Chicago treats opposing offensive lineman. It seems like they do a great job of allowing lineman to get 7 or more pancakes, as they’ve even had multiple players get more than 7 in the same game. This will be a tough one, but I think Beniri does just enough to get the over (but I don’t feel great about it).
Spike Daniels (SAR) – o/u 4.5 Tackles; A free safety tackle prop! Oh how fun! Currently Spike is averaging 3.8 tackles per game. In the last 10 games, Spike has gotten 5 or more tackles just 3 times. I was going to go really in depth to see how many times New York let a free safety get 5 or more tackles, but this oxy is kicking in and I don’t have the patience to go through each roster to figure out who is the FS to verify. So with that, I’m taking the under, yet again, on this prop.
Kalam Mekhar (YKW) – o/u 2.5 Pass Deflections; Mekhar is a stud on one of the best defenses in the league. Averaging just under 2 pass deflections per game, this one will again come down to pass volume as they are obviously all about opportunity. Luckily for Mekhar, they go against Baltimore who is averaging 43 attempts per game. He’ll likely be lined up on Rocky Moreaux, who sees a ton of targets each game. 3 pass deflections seems like a lot, which he has only met or exceeded 5 times in 15 games this season. That being said, this one seems like a trap under, so I’m taking the over.
As is tradition, I’ll be doing a parlay on all my guesses. Probably won’t pay off but YOLO. I’ll still do my usual betting on each prop as that’s seemed to work out well. So my 1m bets will be Beniri over and Higgins under. I’ll throw 2m on the Cue Jr under, Mekhar over, and Sailor under. Lastly, I’ll throw 5m on both LLL under and Spike under. It’s been fun this season and I’m enjoying the extra articles by @Ultimatedestroye, @Chicken Lips, and even @Sebster. Good luck gambling y’all!
Wolfe McDummy Jr. – Over 39.5 pass attempts. This one was easy. We all knew they would pass it. Lock it up.
Eldroh Kove – Over 97.5 rush yards. I let my Tijuana pride get in the way. I figured they’d get blown out and need to pass more. Didn’t expect to hit the over on pretty much 2 runs right away. Oh well.
Stetson David – Over 6.5 receptions. Another easy over. Stetson is their main weapon and he caught all the balls.
Myrtle Beach Tolliver – Under 0.5 TFLs. Cold streaks for TFLs on both sides. No surprise that the under hit on this one.
Skoomina Hulk a Votta – Under 1.5 punts inside 20. I hate punt props. Luckily my thought process that they wouldn’t punt much came true, as they only punted 3 times. Phew.
Modest Mussorgsky – Under 5.5 pancakes. Got so close to the over with 5. Not much to say, but DSFL bets seem to like the under if they’re not a flashy offensive position.
A good week over all. Lips helped keep that streak going during ISFL week 15. So let’s see what we got in store for the last regular season week for the ISFL!
Wendell Sailor (ARI) – o/u 30.5 Pass Attempts; It’s no secret that Arizona likes to run the ball, so with Sailor being near the bottom in pass attempts this season, this should be an interesting one. During their 8-game win streak, Sailor has only attempted at least 31 passes in 3 games. So his average attempts per game has been heavily skewed by the early season games where he was asked to pass it 40-50 times. In a battle for the top spot in the ASFC, I’m sure they’ll be looking to defeat Hon using the ground game. Therefore, I’m taking the under on this one.
Live Laughlove (COL) – o/u 279.5 Pass yds; LLL is about middle of the road in terms of passing yards per game, averaging 265 per game. So right off the bat, we’ll lean towards the under. However, last time Colorado played Cape Town, LLL attempted 39 passes for just over 300 yards. In a blowout. I don’t see another blowout happening this week, so Colorado will be able utilize Pyxis more (as I’m sure they’d prefer). So for this one, I’m also taking the under.
Jaycee Higgins (SJS) – o/u 3.5 Receptions; Old man Higgins is the 3rd WR on San Jose. Averaging 3.6 receptions per game this season, this line will likely be determined by the number of pass attempts needed by San Jose. If they get down early and need to throw it, I can see Higgins getting 4-5 catches (as evidenced by the last time they played Austin, where 45 passes were attempted and Higgins had 4 catches on 9 targets). I can’t find any pattern for his usage in wins vs losses or high pass attempt vs low pass attempt games. I don’t feel great about it, but I don’t see a repeat of their last matchup happening so I’m taking the under on this low number.
Jay Cue Jr. (NOLA) – o/u 65.5 Scrimmage yds; One final prop for the OG himself? Out of respect I should just take the over, but I’m going to actually analyze this one like I normally would. Combined, Cue is averaging just over 54 scrimmage yards per game. He’s definitely used more in the pass game than in the run game, which does bode well for this prop. I’m sure that’s a product of NOLA being down all the time. I really want to take the over on this one but Orange County seems pretty good at limiting passing yards to running backs. I just don’t see this one happening, so it’s yet another under.
Beniri T'Chawama (BER) – o/u 6.5 Pancakes; Yay, a pancake prop. Well I pulled out some game tape to look at a couple items. Beniri plays left tackle for Berlin, which is good for us. However, he’ll likely be lining up against Xavier Valorian, who has a 10 point strength advantage. Like earlier, I couldn’t find much of a pattern for pancakes in wins versus losses, so let’s look at how Chicago treats opposing offensive lineman. It seems like they do a great job of allowing lineman to get 7 or more pancakes, as they’ve even had multiple players get more than 7 in the same game. This will be a tough one, but I think Beniri does just enough to get the over (but I don’t feel great about it).
Spike Daniels (SAR) – o/u 4.5 Tackles; A free safety tackle prop! Oh how fun! Currently Spike is averaging 3.8 tackles per game. In the last 10 games, Spike has gotten 5 or more tackles just 3 times. I was going to go really in depth to see how many times New York let a free safety get 5 or more tackles, but this oxy is kicking in and I don’t have the patience to go through each roster to figure out who is the FS to verify. So with that, I’m taking the under, yet again, on this prop.
Kalam Mekhar (YKW) – o/u 2.5 Pass Deflections; Mekhar is a stud on one of the best defenses in the league. Averaging just under 2 pass deflections per game, this one will again come down to pass volume as they are obviously all about opportunity. Luckily for Mekhar, they go against Baltimore who is averaging 43 attempts per game. He’ll likely be lined up on Rocky Moreaux, who sees a ton of targets each game. 3 pass deflections seems like a lot, which he has only met or exceeded 5 times in 15 games this season. That being said, this one seems like a trap under, so I’m taking the over.
As is tradition, I’ll be doing a parlay on all my guesses. Probably won’t pay off but YOLO. I’ll still do my usual betting on each prop as that’s seemed to work out well. So my 1m bets will be Beniri over and Higgins under. I’ll throw 2m on the Cue Jr under, Mekhar over, and Sailor under. Lastly, I’ll throw 5m on both LLL under and Spike under. It’s been fun this season and I’m enjoying the extra articles by @Ultimatedestroye, @Chicken Lips, and even @Sebster. Good luck gambling y’all!
"...and has what is honestly the most bizarre attachment to ISFL fantasy football and user bets..." - aeonsjenni