*Forced fumbles and how they affect voting

[Jimi64]

Even if not recovered by the defense, I think there is weight in a FF when you're evaluating players in the sense that it portrays their ability to create a game-changing play. It may not always result in a turnover, but a player that can force many fumbles is a very valuable player.

[Pvtpenne]

As an awards committee member and All-Pro voter, I don't really care about tackles that much with exceptions being a tie breaker of sorts (like 10 tackles vs 1 TFL, all else equal) or if a player has an egregiously low or high total. A good example of an egregiously low total from this season that I would care about is Bay Webb, 12 TFLs 18 sacks 5 FF 2 FR 1 int is an amazing season but only 89 tackles at OLB is a killer.

My thought process for this is that we have no context around the tackle total and what kind of an impact that really had. Racking up more tackles could simply mean the DL was weaker thus the OLB had more tackle opportunities. There is also the case where allowing a pass to be caught (rather than forcing an incompletion or getting a PD) and then tackling the receiver is the negative outcome. Unfortunately there are issues with using catch rate and catches allowed for any position other than CB, so you can't really account for these kinds of tackles with the data we have.

A few seasons ago Modern Duke put together some really cool stats regarding tackle depth for S39: Tackle Depth. Taking an example from that season, 2nd team All-Pro DE came down to Daron Arnold, Rocco Blade, and Xavier Perkins. Here are the stats the comprehensive stat sheet shows for these players:
 

Here are my key takeaways from these players from the tackle depth analysis: 

So while Blade led the bunch in tackles, he was making those tackles further downfield than Arnold and Perkins.

To use an example from this analysis with OLBs and their much higher tackle volume take Akayre vs Hayden. Akayre had 116 tackles with an average depth of tackle of 2.82 yards while Hayden had 130 with a depth of 4.85. So despite having only 16 more tackles, Hayden's 130 tackles allowed the opposing team to gain almost double the yards of Akayre's tackles. In a vacuum Hayden's tackle count looks better, but I would take Akayre as the better player that season 10/10 times.

[Pvtpenne]

Forgot to even talk about FFs, but I think my views have already been stated by some others. I think in general FFs are skill-based and FRs are largely luck based, at least that's how it is in real life, not sure if the sim handles it the same way.
Additionally as a voter we don't have anything in the stat sheet that says if a player's FR was from their own FF or another player's FF. Same for if a player racked up an FF and a teammate recovered it or if the offense recovered it.

[slate]

If you don't force a fumble the defense doesn't even have a chance at recovering it.

[oilmandan]

As awards head, will add my perspective as a voter.

When looking at LBs, I look at:

1) Sacks + TFL - How often are they in the backfield
2) Int + PD + FF - How often making plays on the ball
3) Tackles - How often they bring down the ball carrier

1 and 2 are most important to me. 2 to me are the separators and if someone is close in step 1, I will look at step 2 to see who might be better.

If ever needed, can look at tackles as a 3rd separator but even then, team defense plays a part.

A player can get a lot more tackles on a team with lesser defensive players which is what makes tackles hard.

In general though, a lot more things I'd look at before going to FFs but they can be a slight separator just by making a play on the ball that could lead to a turnover

You forgot your top two deciding factors for voting,
1. is their name Ja LongArm 
2. Is their name Ja LongArm

[JuOSu]

My thought process for this is that we have no context around the tackle total and what kind of an impact that really had.

I find it interesting that you say that, but then seemingly still think FF is a good stat even though there is also no context (or at least, not if you don't look at context, which I did provide in the post, about how it only leads to an actual turnover 46% of the time and sometimes even results in a 1st down for offense). It is much easier to have context for FFs than for tackles.

[lordcoolcats]

I would argue the reason Fumble Recoveries are seen as less valuable is because they are entirely dependent on something else happening in the game (usually caused by a separate player). There is inherently less autonomy to a fumble recovery. 

Forced Fumbles, Sacks, TFLs, and INTs are all massive and potentially game-changing plays that a player can achieve without relying on anyone else. They speak more to a players individual prowess.

[JuOSu]

I will say I love all this interpretive dance everyone is doing with FF and FR.

Everyone is picturing this massive hit for a FF that takes a lot of skill, while a FR is just being in the right spot and picking up a ball.

Whereas in reality, it can also be a guy just dropping the ball that causes a fumble (we see it so often in football) and a FR could just as much be a ten person pile and having to fight and claw for a ball.

But somehow no one ever pictures it that way around, weird.

[Jimi64]

I will say I love all this interpretive dance everyone is doing with FF and FR.

Everyone is picturing this massive hit for a FF that takes a lot of skill, while a FR is just being in the right spot and picking up a ball.

Whereas in reality, it can also be a guy just dropping the ball that causes a fumble (we see it so often in football) and a FR could just as much be a ten person pile and having to fight and claw for a ball.

But somehow no one ever pictures it that way around, weird.

but what you described is very much not the way it happens in the sim, right? There’s no chance for a player to just drop the ball for a fumble, it’s determined based on the tackler’s stats. If I’m wrong though feel free to correct me, but I assumed that’s what was happening, and would therefore always be considered a positive play for the defensive player.

Edit: also, would what you described just be a fumble by the offensive player, not a forced fumble?

[JuOSu]

I will say I love all this interpretive dance everyone is doing with FF and FR.

Everyone is picturing this massive hit for a FF that takes a lot of skill, while a FR is just being in the right spot and picking up a ball.

Whereas in reality, it can also be a guy just dropping the ball that causes a fumble (we see it so often in football) and a FR could just as much be a ten person pile and having to fight and claw for a ball.

But somehow no one ever pictures it that way around, weird.

but what you described is very much not the way it happens in the sim, right? There’s no chance for a player to just drop the ball for a fumble, it’s determined based on the tackler’s stats. If I’m wrong though feel free to correct me, but I assumed that’s what was happening, and would therefore always be considered a positive play for the defensive player.

Edit: also, would what you described just be a fumble by the offensive player, not a forced fumble?

I imagine every fumble that happens has to be forced too. That's how it works IRL. It's like whoever is closest to it gets credit I believe