*S44 Mid-Season Power Rankings

[Cycro]

INTRODUCTION

One of the conversations that often surrounds the NFL is the concept of a teams record not being reflective of their quality of play. This season, we’re seeing this type of conversation around the Eagles, who have struggled to some extent all season despite a 5-1 record. One of the ways this is examined is through power rankings, but these tend to be subjective and instigate conflict for media views more than anything. So instead of building a power ranking based on my own opinion, I decided to try to utilize the data available to me and build a power ranking that is based entirely on in-game statistics and quality of play.

The methodology here is almost certainly not perfect. I have very little background in statistics and can’t for the life of me tell you if my results are actually meaningful. But I’ll detail the methods here anyway and maybe someone can iterate on the concept down the road.

The ultimate goal is to devise a metric that measures the performative potential of a team based on performance through the season. The big thing to note here is that win-loss record is not factored into this at all. Instead we focus on 6 statistics for measurement. These statistics are:

Points Per Game
Points Allowed Per Game
Passing Yards Per Game
Passing Yards Allowed Per Game
Rushing Yards Per Game
Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game

Each team receives a rank in each of the 6 categories. Those ranks are then averaged to create a composite ranking score for each team that represents their overall potential for complementary football.

We’ll start from the bottom and work our way up, so without further ado, let’s get into some analysis!

THE RANKINGS

#14 - New Orleans Second Line
Composite Ranking Score: 12.5



I think it comes as no surprise that the data reflects reality on this one. NOLA ranks 14 out of 14 in 3 of the 6 categories: PPG, PaPG, and RYPG, while being near the bottom for RYAPG and PYAPG at 13 and 12 respectively. The one shining star here actually appears to be in their passing game, where they rank 8 out of 14 with an average of 268.9 passing yards from rookie QB Octavian Speedings. He’s bolstered by a reasonably young receiving corps and offensive line creating opportunities for plays downfield. Ultimately, a lack of rushing attack leads to poor red zone efficiency and an all around underperforming defense keeps them out of contention. But the pros outweigh the cons for the future, as long as NOLA can build into a reasonably effective defense.

#13 - San Jose Sabercats
Composite Ranking Score: 11.7



The bottom of the rankings continue to follow along the pattern of league record with San Jose. The story is also incredibly similar to NOLA: Near the bottom in every category, 14th in rushing yards allowed, but with what seems to be an extremely effecting passing game ranked at 5th in the league with an average of 277 passing yards per game. A young and decently earning offense helmed by first year QB Josh Patterson means that SJS can only expect to grow in offensive strength. Like NOLA, SJS needs to focus on building out a competent defense and expand their run game.

#12 - Chicago Butchers
Composite Ranking Score: 9.3



The third and final 2-7 team comes in at #12. But here we see a team that is ultimately in this position due to average play rather than abysmal play. Chicago ranks outside the top 10 on just two categories, PPG and PYAPG. They boast a just slightly above average defense against the rush at 6 and sit firmly at 7 in Passing Yards. However, like SJS and NOLA, their inability to convert in the red zone means that the gained yardage doesn’t equate to success on the scoreboard. A focus on their defensive secondary and their run game could easily see Chicago move up the rankings in the next couple of seasons.

#11 - Sarasota Sailfish
Composite Ranking Score: 9.2



Just slightly taking the statistical edge on Chicago comes Sarasota, just a tenth of a point ahead in the composite rankings. What’s interesting is that Sarasota may be playing worse than their record would suggest, sitting outside the top 10 in 3 out of 6 categories (Passing Yards Allowed: 11th, Rushing Yards: 13th, Rushing Yards Allowed: 11th). The low defensive rankings correlate to a 10th place rank for points allowed. However, their offense appears to be keeping them competitive to at least some degree, with a top 5 ranking in Passing Yards and a #6 ranking in Points Per Game. Like the teams before them, a better rushing game and overall defensive gains will be required to start to turn the record around in the coming seasons.

#10 - Berlin Fire Salamanders
Composite Ranking Score: 8.3



Berlin went from Ultimus contenders to middle of the pack over the course of the past season and a half with average-ish rankings in 4 out of 6 categories. What stands out is that despite their reasonable rankings in offensive yardage, they are seemingly incapable of turning their offensive success into points scored. On the flip side, they are 4th best in the league at holding their opponents to a low scoring affair despite a 12th rank in rushing defense. They sit 7th at passing yards allowed, however, indicating that they are keeping opponents out of goal-to-go scenarios often enough that their poor rushing defense isn’t hurting them overly much. Berlin needs to work out a way to convert offensive success into points scored, and if they can do that they’ll likely shoot up the rankings.

#9 - Colorado Yeti
Composite Ranking Score: 7.7



Our first real statistical outlier comes in the form of Colorado, who are likely being hurt by their strength of schedule and their conference more than anything. They are a passing-game wonder on both sides of the ball, ranking league best in Passing Yards at 297.3 and 2nd in the league at defending the pass with 240.2 passing yards allowed. However, despite this efficiency, they are seemingly unable to convert their passing success into scoring, posting an 11th ranked PPG, while also posting up a 12th ranked effort in Points Allowed. If Colorado is able to continue their passing game dominance into next season and really dial in on their run defense (9th currently), they could easily become a playoff contender again. Given their current record, however, that seems unlikely for this season.

#8 - Arizona Outlaws
Composite Ranking Score: 7.5



Now here’s a real head scratcher. Arizona’s composite ranking puts them squarely just below average, holding the league lowest rating in passing yards at just 190.8 passing yards per game. And yet, they sit in second place (T-NYS) in the ASFC. Their running game likely plays a large part in this (5th in the league) as well as their stifling ability to keep opponents out of the end zone (2nd in the league in points allowed). Arizonas lack of effective passing offense is likely to come back to hurt them in the back half of the season, but if they can find a way to squirrel out more passing yards, their stellar running game and their average defensive performances could keep them in the playoff conversation.

#T6 - Yellowknife Wraiths
Composite Ranking Score: 6.7



Yellowknife is a perfect example of why complementary football is so necessary. They sit below to well-below average in a number of statistics: Points Per Game (9th), Points Allowed (9th), Passing Yards (13th), Passing Yard Allowed (6th). However, they shine like a bright star in one regard: Rushing. They sit atop the league in rushing yards at a staggering 139.7 yards per game, while also stifling opposing run defenses with a league-2nd 83.8 rushing yards allowed per game. However, their lack of consistent production in the passing game keeps YKW out of consistent scoring opportunities, and their good-but-not-stellar passing defense isn’t quite at the level to keep them competitive in tight situations. A deeper focus on the passing game should rocket YKW into a great position going forward.

#T6 - Orange County Otters
Composite Ranking Score: 6.7



Orange County and Yellowknife are opposite sides of the same coin in this regard, which is fascinating. They also sit below or well below average in a number of categories, but they seem to excel in the area of expertise that YKW struggles: They have an excellent passing game and pass defense. Currently OCO sits in league 2nd in passing yards at 287.6 yards per game and league 3rd in passing defense, allowing 243.4 yards per game. However, just like YKW, this level of offensive production does not translate in the red zone, with a ranking of 8th in points per game at 23.3, and a points allowed per game ranking of 10th with 25.6 points per game. As well, their rushing yards do not come near helping them in driving down field, sitting at 10th in the league with an average of 79 rushing yards per game.

#T4 - New York Silverbacks
Composite Ranking Score: 5.8



We’re starting to get into the real heavy hitters as far as league record goes, and NYS is placed well in regards to their current record as they sit in the clump of 6-3 and 5-4 teams in the upper-middle of the pack. NYS doesn’t do any one thing specifically well, but they’re good enough in most categories which keeps them competitive in most games. They are rated just slightly above average in all categories except passing yards at 11th with 254.7 per game. Their offense and defense are complementary, resulting in a ranking of 5th for both Points Per Game and Points Allowed. Their record of 6-3 is comfortably backed up by these statistics, leading me to believe they’ll continue this level of performance through the end of the season.

#T4 - Cape Town Crash
Composite Ranking Score: 5.8



This is probably the biggest surprise of this entire exercise. Cape Town holds the sole 8-1 record in the league, with the next closest records being a clump at 6-3. Their individual rankings paint a starkly different picture than NYS, though. CTC holds the highest rank for Points Per Game in the league, with 32.9 PPG, and the 3rd rank for Points Allowed at 20.6. Contrary to past CTC teams, which were successful offensively but not dominant, this team could inherit NOLAs league-last points allowed (32.2) and still on average be successful. However, what’s holding them back in the power rankings and what could eventually bite them in the behind is their defensive yardage efficiency. They are ranked 8th in passing yards allowed (267.4) and 10th in rushing yards allowed (100.9). However, their defense seems to have it where it counts, keeping them in the top 5 for points allowed. If CTC is able to keep up this high scoring spectacle and dial in on defense, there’s no reason they can’t keep up the dominance and climb up the composite rankings.

#2 - Austin Copperheads
Composite Ranking Score: 4.5



This one’s a doozy. Near as I can tell, Austin might be one of the greatest victims of “sim gonna sim” that we’ve seen this season. Austin is a top 5 team in nearly every metric, posting stifling defensive numbers in the running game (1st) and passing game (4th). They dominate the run game, with a ranking of 2nd in the league and an average 138.6 rushing yards per game. They score impressively well on average, 2nd in the league with 26.8 points per game. Despite all of these metrics, the games they’ve lost have been incredibly swingy affairs. They sit 6th in the league in points allowed (22.6), leaving just enough room for some high scoring showings by their opponents, and despite their scoring efficiency, their passing game is doing their rushing game no favors with a league 12th rank in passing yards (246.8). Creating greater defensive consistency in the red zone will be key to preventing these swingy games, but from the metrics, Austin should be looking at a more dominant record than they currently have.

#1 - Honolulu Hahalua
Composite Ranking Score: 3.7



There’s no way to sugar coat this, so let’s just get it out there: Honolulu is the real deal. They sit just outside the top 5 on only 2 categories: Passing yards (6th) and Rushing yards (6th). They top the league or nearly top the league in every other category, but the two I want to highlight are: Points Allowed (1st) at only 15 points per game on average, and Passing Yards Allowed (1st) at only 215.9 yards allowed. Their absolutely stifling pass defense is bolster by a 4th ranked rushing defense (89.2 yards per game). They also sit in the top 5 in Points Per Game at 25.8. Barring any sim shenanigans, Honolulu is going to be an absolute powerhouse going forward and their composite rank and their current record are in agreement here.

CONCLUSION

Ultimately, aside from a few outliers, I think that this effort shows that the general league consensus tends to be pretty tight as far as evaluating team power and potential. Going forward, I might look into diving into this a little further and try to break down red zone success rates as well as the influence that turnovers have on offensive rankings.

In closing, I’d like to say:

[FireworkFuse]

I appreciate the effort but your system is flawed because the Crash aren't number 1. Other than that, this is fantastic.

[negs]

Great media my friend love the stats based analysis

[dude_man]

Dang, this is Baltimore erasure I tell you!

[Tylertokesome04]

I like this write up because it says I'm not the problem

[WildfireMicro]

I say that the number 1 team deserves it

[IceBear32]

I approve this message

[JKortesi81]

"This one’s a doozy. Near as I can tell, Austin might be one of the greatest victims of “sim gonna sim” that we’ve seen this season. Austin is a top 5 team in nearly every metric, posting stifling defensive numbers in the running game (1st) and passing game (4th). They dominate the run game, with a ranking of 2nd in the league and an average 138.6 rushing yards per game. They score impressively well on average, 2nd in the league with 26.8 points per game. Despite all of these metrics, the games they’ve lost have been incredibly swingy affairs. They sit 6th in the league in points allowed (22.6), leaving just enough room for some high scoring showings by their opponents, and despite their scoring efficiency, their passing game is doing their rushing game no favors with a league 12th rank in passing yards (246.8). Creating greater defensive consistency in the red zone will be key to preventing these swingy games, but from the metrics, Austin should be looking at a more dominant record than they currently have."

I know everyone in the league feels this way at times, but as someone that's been in Austin from the start, it's *always* felt this way on the "sim gonna sim" front. I swear to God we're cursed, and its almost like my Buffalo Bills fandom was ingrained into the team when we started it as an expansion team. It's been brutal.

And it can't be me specifically, because when I went to Honolulu with Bayley (the one true Bayley in fantasy leagues, remember, is my dog. Not @Bayley that imposter!) my last player, we dunked on everyone. I cursed the franchise, but am not cursed myself.

[Frostbite]

I like this write up because it says I'm not the problem

I like the way you think

[TubaDeus]

I can give you a simpler explanation why Yellowknife is doing much better in yardage than points.

Giveaways: 17

Takeaways: 3