11-15-2023, 10:17 AM
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2023, 10:23 AM by lemonoppy. Edited 1 time in total.)
It’s my final article on the dramatics of ISFL S44! We know the math, we know the setup, so let’s get right into the recaps.
Austin Copperheads 31, Sarasota Sailfish 29
Setting a high bar right from the onset. Sarasota came back from a 15-point deficit in the final quarter, but a missed 2-point conversion meant that Austin’s last-second field goal from Charlie Brown was a game-winner. Phenomenal ending from one of the most dramatic teams this year.
New Orleans Secondline 34, Yellowknife Wraiths 31
Yellowknife made things close with a touchdown in the final minute, but New Orleans held on for the victory.
Cape Town Crash 29, San Jose Sabercats 24
A rare close game for the Crash, but it still ended in a victory. Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin’s 3-yard run with 7 minutes remaining put the Crash on top to stay.
Colorado Yeti 21, Arizona Outlaws 19
The beginning of a truly heartbreaking run for the Outlaws, as they failed to score in the final 25 minutes and Colorado escaped with a narrow victory.
Sarasota Sailfish 27, Yellowknife Wraiths 22
Sarasota nearly blew a 27-6 lead in the final 16 minutes, giving up three scores in that time. But after stuffing a 2-point conversion with 2 minutes to go, they ran out the clock to preserve the win.
Cape Town Crash 16, Orange County Otters 13
A rare overtime game, and from two of the less dramatic teams this year. A 6-3 yawn-fest turned into high drama as both teams scored go-ahead touchdowns in the final 2 minutes, then Cape Town hit a field goal at the last (literal) second to force overtime. Bob Kickerson notched another late in the final period to give the Crash their only Close Win of the regular season.
New York Silverbacks 28, Arizona Outlaws 27
The second in Arizona’s terrible trio, they built up a 24-6 lead only to see it erased in the second half by a rapid trio of Silverback touchdowns. They had one late scoring drive but had to settle for a field goal, which wasn’t enough as they lost another close one.
Austin Copperheads 38, San Jose Sabercats 34
In a game that saw an astonishing SEVEN lead changes, the Copperheads once again came out on top thanks to the footwork of kicker Charlie Brown. He was 3-for-3 on the day and scored the final go-ahead points with 11:13 left in the 4th quarter.
Yellowknife Wraiths 23, Arizona Outlaws 21
A quiet week for everyone but the Arizona faithful who had to be tearing their hair out after another agonizing loss. They scored with 1:47 remaining to take a narrow 21-20 lead, but left Yellowknife just enough time to drive down the field and get in range for the winning field goal.
Arizona Outlaws 23, Honolulu Hahalua 18
Vindication for Arizona, and against one of the best teams in the league no less. They scored the first 14 points and the final 9, and it was enough to overcome everything that happened in between.
Yellowknife Wraiths 28, Colorado Yeti 27
Two desperate touchdowns in the final 2:01 meant shocking victory for the Wraiths and hollow defeat for the Yeti. The first missed two-point conversion ended up being a blessing in disguise, as it forced the team to shoot for big plays and they connected for a 65-yard touchdown bomb and the winning points.
Berlin Fire Salamanders 24, Sarasota Sailfish 22
The Sailfish had hope after a field goal in the 4th quarter shrunk the lead to 2, but they were stonewalled from there as they added another close defeat to their list of dramatics for the year.
New York Silverbacks 15, Austin Copperheads 10
The Silverbacks only got one touchdown, with 2:14 to go in the game, but it turned out to be enough. Defenses dominated, with 10 combined sacks and 3 turnovers.
Cape Town Crash 24, Chicago Butchers 16
An 8-point game that only qualifies because the Butchers scored in the final two minutes. Not really that close of a contest but it gets in on a technicality.
Yellowknife Wraiths 27, Baltimore Hawks 21
After a slew of early overtime games, Baltimore was fairly quiet in the final six weeks of the season. This game was 27-7 at one point, so the final score probably oversells the drama of watching the Wraiths run out the final 1:19.
Sarasota Sailfish 13, Cape Town Crash 6
A stunning upset that propelled the Sailfish into the playoffs. Low-scoring but close the entire way, so old-school fans rejoice!
San Jose Sabercats 17, New Orleans Secondline 10
New Orleans tied the game with 7:13 to go, but San Jose found some offensive life at the very end and put together a final game-winning drive, capped by Ttollem Mada’s 6-yard touchdown catch.
Arizona Outlaws 33, Orange County Otters 27
The Arizona defense stepped up to avert another disaster, bending without breaking in the final quarter and giving up only field goals. It was enough for Arizona to walk away with a 6-point victory.
Honolulu Hahalua 16, Austin Copperheads 13
Octavio Perez scored the team’s first and only touchdown with 1:17 to go as the Hahalua clinched the best record in their conference in dramatic fashion.
Sarasota Sailfish 29, Colorado Yeti 27
Sarasota clinched their playoff trip in classic “Cardiac Carp” fashion: by blowing a huge lead, regaining it, and then barely hanging on until the final whistle. A Wolfie McDummy Jr safety ended up being the winning points, somehow not the first time those 2 little defensive points made all the difference this season.
Sarasota remains untouchable as the Most Dramatic team, with thirteen regular season games qualifying as close or better. Yellowknife and Arizona race up to the podium thanks to their electrifying ends to the season, while Baltimore and Berlin regress toward the mean. Orange County gets the undesirable “least lucky” award (or “least clutch” if you want to be cruel about it), going 0-3 in their Very Close games and 2-5 in all Close games. Meanwhile Yellowknife gets the Clutch award for winning 5 of its league-leading 7 Very Close games.
![[Image: sarasota-3-chart.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/65yVc4MQ/sarasota-3-chart.png)
You can see the relatively even distribution of teams along the y-axis, with more teams in the middle (around .500) and outliers at both ends. But this final chart also shows a similar pattern on the x-axis, with lots of teams clumped in the 8-12 range and a handful of teams that experienced closer games more often, becoming sparser the farther right you go. Is Sarasota’s 25-drama season truly a rarity, or just the latest aberration in a long series of seasonal data? I guess we’ll have to compare next season to truly see…
Until then!
Week 11
Austin Copperheads 31, Sarasota Sailfish 29
Setting a high bar right from the onset. Sarasota came back from a 15-point deficit in the final quarter, but a missed 2-point conversion meant that Austin’s last-second field goal from Charlie Brown was a game-winner. Phenomenal ending from one of the most dramatic teams this year.
New Orleans Secondline 34, Yellowknife Wraiths 31
Yellowknife made things close with a touchdown in the final minute, but New Orleans held on for the victory.
Cape Town Crash 29, San Jose Sabercats 24
A rare close game for the Crash, but it still ended in a victory. Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin’s 3-yard run with 7 minutes remaining put the Crash on top to stay.
Colorado Yeti 21, Arizona Outlaws 19
The beginning of a truly heartbreaking run for the Outlaws, as they failed to score in the final 25 minutes and Colorado escaped with a narrow victory.
Week 12
Sarasota Sailfish 27, Yellowknife Wraiths 22
Sarasota nearly blew a 27-6 lead in the final 16 minutes, giving up three scores in that time. But after stuffing a 2-point conversion with 2 minutes to go, they ran out the clock to preserve the win.
Cape Town Crash 16, Orange County Otters 13
A rare overtime game, and from two of the less dramatic teams this year. A 6-3 yawn-fest turned into high drama as both teams scored go-ahead touchdowns in the final 2 minutes, then Cape Town hit a field goal at the last (literal) second to force overtime. Bob Kickerson notched another late in the final period to give the Crash their only Close Win of the regular season.
New York Silverbacks 28, Arizona Outlaws 27
The second in Arizona’s terrible trio, they built up a 24-6 lead only to see it erased in the second half by a rapid trio of Silverback touchdowns. They had one late scoring drive but had to settle for a field goal, which wasn’t enough as they lost another close one.
Austin Copperheads 38, San Jose Sabercats 34
In a game that saw an astonishing SEVEN lead changes, the Copperheads once again came out on top thanks to the footwork of kicker Charlie Brown. He was 3-for-3 on the day and scored the final go-ahead points with 11:13 left in the 4th quarter.
Week 13
Yellowknife Wraiths 23, Arizona Outlaws 21
A quiet week for everyone but the Arizona faithful who had to be tearing their hair out after another agonizing loss. They scored with 1:47 remaining to take a narrow 21-20 lead, but left Yellowknife just enough time to drive down the field and get in range for the winning field goal.
Week 14
Arizona Outlaws 23, Honolulu Hahalua 18
Vindication for Arizona, and against one of the best teams in the league no less. They scored the first 14 points and the final 9, and it was enough to overcome everything that happened in between.
Yellowknife Wraiths 28, Colorado Yeti 27
Two desperate touchdowns in the final 2:01 meant shocking victory for the Wraiths and hollow defeat for the Yeti. The first missed two-point conversion ended up being a blessing in disguise, as it forced the team to shoot for big plays and they connected for a 65-yard touchdown bomb and the winning points.
Berlin Fire Salamanders 24, Sarasota Sailfish 22
The Sailfish had hope after a field goal in the 4th quarter shrunk the lead to 2, but they were stonewalled from there as they added another close defeat to their list of dramatics for the year.
New York Silverbacks 15, Austin Copperheads 10
The Silverbacks only got one touchdown, with 2:14 to go in the game, but it turned out to be enough. Defenses dominated, with 10 combined sacks and 3 turnovers.
Cape Town Crash 24, Chicago Butchers 16
An 8-point game that only qualifies because the Butchers scored in the final two minutes. Not really that close of a contest but it gets in on a technicality.
Week 15
Yellowknife Wraiths 27, Baltimore Hawks 21
After a slew of early overtime games, Baltimore was fairly quiet in the final six weeks of the season. This game was 27-7 at one point, so the final score probably oversells the drama of watching the Wraiths run out the final 1:19.
Sarasota Sailfish 13, Cape Town Crash 6
A stunning upset that propelled the Sailfish into the playoffs. Low-scoring but close the entire way, so old-school fans rejoice!
San Jose Sabercats 17, New Orleans Secondline 10
New Orleans tied the game with 7:13 to go, but San Jose found some offensive life at the very end and put together a final game-winning drive, capped by Ttollem Mada’s 6-yard touchdown catch.
Week 16
Arizona Outlaws 33, Orange County Otters 27
The Arizona defense stepped up to avert another disaster, bending without breaking in the final quarter and giving up only field goals. It was enough for Arizona to walk away with a 6-point victory.
Honolulu Hahalua 16, Austin Copperheads 13
Octavio Perez scored the team’s first and only touchdown with 1:17 to go as the Hahalua clinched the best record in their conference in dramatic fashion.
Sarasota Sailfish 29, Colorado Yeti 27
Sarasota clinched their playoff trip in classic “Cardiac Carp” fashion: by blowing a huge lead, regaining it, and then barely hanging on until the final whistle. A Wolfie McDummy Jr safety ended up being the winning points, somehow not the first time those 2 little defensive points made all the difference this season.
Author’s Note: To keep the number of games consistent and avoid inflating the numbers for playoff teams, I’m stopping my final analysis at the end of the regular season.
Final Drama Standings
1. Sarasota Sailfish (25)
2. Yellowknife Wraiths (19)
3. Arizona Outlaws (16)
4. Baltimore Hawks (13)
4. Berlin Fire Salamanders (13)
6. Colorado Yeti (12)
7. San Jose Sabercats (11)
7. Orange County Otters (11)
7. Austin Copperheads (11)
10. New York Silverbacks (10)
11. Honolulu Hahalua (8)
11. Cape Town Crash (8)
13. New Orleans Secondline (7)
14. Chicago Butchers (4)
Sarasota remains untouchable as the Most Dramatic team, with thirteen regular season games qualifying as close or better. Yellowknife and Arizona race up to the podium thanks to their electrifying ends to the season, while Baltimore and Berlin regress toward the mean. Orange County gets the undesirable “least lucky” award (or “least clutch” if you want to be cruel about it), going 0-3 in their Very Close games and 2-5 in all Close games. Meanwhile Yellowknife gets the Clutch award for winning 5 of its league-leading 7 Very Close games.
You can see the relatively even distribution of teams along the y-axis, with more teams in the middle (around .500) and outliers at both ends. But this final chart also shows a similar pattern on the x-axis, with lots of teams clumped in the 8-12 range and a handful of teams that experienced closer games more often, becoming sparser the farther right you go. Is Sarasota’s 25-drama season truly a rarity, or just the latest aberration in a long series of seasonal data? I guess we’ll have to compare next season to truly see…
Until then!
![[Image: 009p.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/zf59gRY8/009p.png)
![[Image: X0b4qFW.gif]](https://i.imgur.com/X0b4qFW.gif)
