12-05-2023, 10:43 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-05-2023, 10:47 AM by lemonoppy. Edited 2 times in total.)
Hello! I’ve got a fun little piece that I’ve written up because it’s fun to write stuff about myself and I saw a cool moving bar graph on TikTok.
This is a quick little piece on celebrating S45 ISFL rookies and seeing their top performances and seeing where they stack up in terms of ISFL Pro Bowl points and 0.5 PPR Fantasy points. I chose to do only the offence players since it’s fun (touchdowns woo!) and also I’m on offence.
For the ISFL, rookie just means new to the ISFL and so we have a varying level of TPE that is applied and that really changes outcome and results. Our TPE for players for this article goes from 402 to 684. That’s a ton of spread and will lead to skewed stats.
There’s a lovely True Rookie article written every season by TheRake and it’s much more representative with how well rookies perform, rather than this biased as heck article.
I’ve made a very specific choice to limit the players in the article so I don’t write tons and tons as I’m a little short on time, and I’m hoping I don’t come back to edit this section and actually do a ton of work. Passarelli isn’t a rookie but he’s in here because I’ve got a bet with him going on who’ll have more yards this season and he’s a cool guy!
This article will be split into two parts, the first is me writing this post Week 1, with projections and predictions for the upcoming season. Mostly we’ll be using Pro Bowl points based off of the ISFL Pro Bowl formula to gauge a player’s “value” or performance. The second will come after the season to follow up on the players’ performances, have the fancy animated charts, and just thoughts on the whole thing!
As always my spreadsheet is available where you can see all my stuff and poke around!
Sem’ga Nah’sim - WR (S43): 83 REC/1202 Yards (6 TD) [1247 Pro Bowl points]
Eli Prince - WR (S40): 101 REC/1215 Yards (4 TD) [1235 Pro Bowl points]
Ace Anderson - RB (S42): 254 ATT/954 Yards (7 TD) + 36 REC/339 Yards (1 TD) [1527 Pro Bowl Points]
Malik Brooks - RB (S41) - 230 ATT/1006 Yards (12 TD) + 51 REC/568 Yards (3 TD) [1979 Pro Bowl points]
Kyle Crane - RB (S41) - 319 ATT/1356 Yards (9 TD) + 41 REC/293 Yards (1 TD) [1866 Pro Bowl points]
Looks like we can expect QBs to win ORotY generally, which makes sense! Looks like it’ll be a battle between Maximus Boudreaux and Jay Cue III for that title.
Otherwise, it looks like something like 1800 points is a strong performance for a RB but for WR we’re looking for something in the 1200 range, RBs naturally get more points as WRs don’t get any points for pancakes + they just generally see higher usage. I don’t think we’re going to see a WR like that this season, but that’s for the predictions section!
I put these two together because Anakin and BMP make up the new Baltimore backfield. With Kumquat Archipelago making a move through free agency to Sarasota and Ceti Pyxis swapping over to TE, these two fresh S43 players have a chance to make a splash during their debut on the ISFL stage.
Immediately with these two, I don’t expect them to do thaaaat well, most ISFL backfields have a 1k TPE monster with the secondary coming in at TPE levels that these two have. Nothing against them but they’re just not ready to shoulder the load at the next level yet.
I expect Anakin to perform at a higher level than BMP, with Rocky Moreaux and Shane Turnbull as maxed WR vets and an up and coming Sam Mercury as well, Baltimore and Beatz will aim to move the ball through the air, and Anakin at a higher TPE level as well as being a receiving back will do some damage.
Anakin projects to do damage just by having more volume forced through him while BMP probably picks up some short yardage work and will not be so relevant fantasy wise.
Woelkers is a true rookie as Hercules makes his way from the Ducks right onto the field in Colorado, should be a short flight at least.
Hercules Henry finds himself in a very very similar situation with Anakin and BMP, coming in at about 350 TPE, Henry is behind a 673 TPE RB in Swamp Maiden, so a lower TPE backfield once again. Colorado is also very uniquely positioned in this league with Mister Hogmally being such an outlier and a force to be reckoned with.
The most damning thing for Henry is that Henry Oswald-Newman is the RB2 in this depth chart, coming in with nearly half a decade of experience. I don’t foresee Henry making much of a splash in the ISFL this season but the experience gain for them should make them immensely dangerous in seasons to come.
Pokecraft was my surprise pick in the ISFL S43 draft, he got drafted way higher than I thought he might, but boy has he lived up to it. Bessey finds himself as RB3 in a backfield that also has the illustrious Armor Queen and Pete Zuh.
As a receiving back, Bessey should find himself on the field in more packages and find more utility points wise for this upcoming season. As a dynasty player with Bessey on my bench, I’m very excited to see what they’ll do a season or two down the line when they become a much clearer lead RB as Armor Queen and Pete Zuh age out of the ISFL.
I don’t know how many points people actually get, through week 1 we’ve had the RBs go from 92 (Anakin Skywalker) to 4 (Bertie Mannering-Phipps).
92 is what Armor Queen managed to get during Week 1, and if we project Anakin to be around the RB16 mark that he is now, his 92 points in Week 1 seems like a high mark excepting for the wins when Baltimore wins + Anakin punches in a touchdown.
Looking for reference points for rookies:
Swamp Maiden - 805 Pro Bowl points (50.3 avg)
Reginald Shrubbery - 894 Pro Bowl points (55.9 avg)
Ace Anderson - 1526 Pro Bowl points (95.4 avg)
I think from situation and TPE level, I don’t think anyone on our list is Ace Anderson, he was the RB10 in rushing yards and but that speaks more to how well Anderson did rather than a knock on any of our players.
I think Anakin will average around 80 points, which is pretty good for a rookie. As a reference point, Frank Dux had 2610 Pro Bowl points last season.
These point totals are more representative of expectations of volume at the positions, keeping their TPE levels in mind as well as situation.
Bamford, unfortunately for personal stats, comes in to the ISFL in a WR4/TE sort of role, a true team player move that brought him up from a Portland team that is coming off of an Ultimini win and another appearance this past season.
So with that in mind, it’s hard to imagine Bamford making big Pro Bowl point moves, I expect a lot of blocking, some short yardage work, and gaining of experience for the upcoming seasons where he’ll quickly move into a WR2 role. Arizona as a whole is also pretty run heavy so I don’t expect that many points from WRs generally speaking outta the desert.
OJ crushed the DSFL and makes a move up to the ISFL, with WR1 locked down by Keanu Calhoun, at least until S47, Orange Julius will supersede Otto the Orange in TPE very quickly, and next season will be a strong WR2, very similar to Bamford but just in a place with a bit more opportunity for volume. With the expectation that Josh Patterson and the San Jose Sabercats go quite pass heavy (44 attempts Week 1!), Julius will garner some large amount of target volume, he’s got 10 already and we’ve got 15 weeks left to go.
Hey it’s me! I’m the highest TPE player on this list, I think, not by much as FSF and I are basically tied.
Sutha joins the Outlaws after 3 straight Pro-Bowls and 2 All-Pros with the Ducks and is in a very weird spot depth chart wise. We’ve got Benji Aguilera killing it as WR1 and Captain Billy Stinkwater with his years of experience and franchise records as a WR2, but it does get a little iffy when a player is deeper into regression.
Sutha being a WR2.5 in a run heavy offence looks to do well as a speed threat but doesn’t look like he’ll do anything crazy or outlier-ish in the boxscore.
Passarelli is not a rookie! What the heck! He’s on this list because I’ve got a total receiving yardage bet going with him and he’s a cool guy.
With Mardukas swapping over to WR and NOLA probably being in some losing game scripts this season, I expect Passarelli to improve from his 652 yard, 1 TD season.
I wanted to put myself at 801 Pro Bowl points and Passarelli at 800 but I just think that Passarelli is going to get way more volume in NOLA this season plus it feels bad to write a list that is immediately wrong.
Hemhem aka LFPJ is our lone TE in this season’s call-ups, and he’s a swap from WR too!
I can’t imagine LFPJ does too much damage on the boxscore because of Hogmally existing on the same roster as him. Hogmally is just a big well of gravity and while I really do hope that Paris-Johnson does well, his 11 yard, 1 TD game will be around the peak of his performances this season, is my guess, but we could also get into the classic TE performance of 40 yard receiving games, and that might put La’Fluke Paris-Johnson at a 30 point per game average.
Prediction: 400 Pro Bowl points
OKAY I KNOW I SAID I WOULDN’T DO MORE WORK THAN A SMALL ARTICLE BUT I LIED. TYLER THE CREATOR GIF HERE.
If you’d like to check out the Gemini award winning article S42-S44 Prospect Power Rankings where I’ve put all the combine and DSFL stats of players in those seasons into an NFL draft, lets do a little cross referencing and see if my predictions fit where the players actually landed in the draft!
It makes sense that a lot of players here on the list are people who would be drafted earlier, they’re players who had higher TPE in the DSFL and are probably more engaged.
Lets imagine the scenario to be all of these players hitting the ISFL after being drafted (weird because we’re clearly giving bumps to players who are older but not controlling for it).
OJ and Passarelli were clear, clear must drafts in the top of the first and fans would love to see them projected as such high performances. I think fans would be disappointed to see them not projected to have record crushing rookie seasons, although Passarelli would get more of a pass since he’s a position swap (in the ISFL canon).
Anakin would be an Antonio Gibson situation where I gave him a scout note of “Very agile but doesn’t have the physical talent for the next level” and bulked up a bit and a great coaching staff found him a place where his shifty movement in open space made him a force.
I think for the rest, no one stands out, kinda all fits around where you’d expect from rookies starting in the NFL.
I'm posting this after Week 1 where I'm using the usage from those games to write my projections, so I could be waaaaay off-base, I think particularly on Kyle Bessey as Running Backs can get a sneaky large amount of usage.
Please hit the poll to guess the skill-position ORotY and read the follow-up article after the season to see how it all actually shook out!
This is a quick little piece on celebrating S45 ISFL rookies and seeing their top performances and seeing where they stack up in terms of ISFL Pro Bowl points and 0.5 PPR Fantasy points. I chose to do only the offence players since it’s fun (touchdowns woo!) and also I’m on offence.
For the ISFL, rookie just means new to the ISFL and so we have a varying level of TPE that is applied and that really changes outcome and results. Our TPE for players for this article goes from 402 to 684. That’s a ton of spread and will lead to skewed stats.
There’s a lovely True Rookie article written every season by TheRake and it’s much more representative with how well rookies perform, rather than this biased as heck article.
I’ve made a very specific choice to limit the players in the article so I don’t write tons and tons as I’m a little short on time, and I’m hoping I don’t come back to edit this section and actually do a ton of work. Passarelli isn’t a rookie but he’s in here because I’ve got a bet with him going on who’ll have more yards this season and he’s a cool guy!
This article will be split into two parts, the first is me writing this post Week 1, with projections and predictions for the upcoming season. Mostly we’ll be using Pro Bowl points based off of the ISFL Pro Bowl formula to gauge a player’s “value” or performance. The second will come after the season to follow up on the players’ performances, have the fancy animated charts, and just thoughts on the whole thing!
As always my spreadsheet is available where you can see all my stuff and poke around!
S45 Offensive Skill Position Rookies
RB
Anakin Skywalker (@ForSucksFake) - 667 TPE
Bertie Mannering-Phipps (@bernardhibou) - 570 TPE
Hercules Henry (@woelkers) - 366 TPE
WR
Jordan Bamford (@"Bamford13") - 549 TPE
Orange Julius (@OrangeJulius) - 469 TPE
Thomas Sutha (@lemonoppy) - 684 TPE
TE
La’Fluke Paris-Johnson (@hemhem) - 402 TPE
Rookie Performance Context
Alright, before we look at my projections for players, we need to figure out what the Offensive Rookie of the Year looks like for previous seasons. I also wanted to figure out what kinds of seasons we’re looking for from a RB and WR perspective, since their stat earning is so different.S44
Our ORotY for S44 was Sem’ga Nah’sim (@“thecc”) as a S43 WR call-up. He won by a landslide, and Swamp Maiden, Thomas Passarelli being our other candidates based on us looking at offensive skill position players only but they didn't receive any first ballot votes.Sem’ga Nah’sim - WR (S43): 83 REC/1202 Yards (6 TD) [1247 Pro Bowl points]
S43
Season 43 had Lloyd Bannings win as a QB but Eli Prince and Ace Anderson won some votes too, so I’ve got them below.Eli Prince - WR (S40): 101 REC/1215 Yards (4 TD) [1235 Pro Bowl points]
Ace Anderson - RB (S42): 254 ATT/954 Yards (7 TD) + 36 REC/339 Yards (1 TD) [1527 Pro Bowl Points]
S42
Donovan Winters III, another QB, wins S42 RotY as QBs seem like they’re wont to do. However, we’ve got Malik Brooks and Kyle Crane as candidates with first ranked votes!Malik Brooks - RB (S41) - 230 ATT/1006 Yards (12 TD) + 51 REC/568 Yards (3 TD) [1979 Pro Bowl points]
Kyle Crane - RB (S41) - 319 ATT/1356 Yards (9 TD) + 41 REC/293 Yards (1 TD) [1866 Pro Bowl points]
Looks like we can expect QBs to win ORotY generally, which makes sense! Looks like it’ll be a battle between Maximus Boudreaux and Jay Cue III for that title.
Otherwise, it looks like something like 1800 points is a strong performance for a RB but for WR we’re looking for something in the 1200 range, RBs naturally get more points as WRs don’t get any points for pancakes + they just generally see higher usage. I don’t think we’re going to see a WR like that this season, but that’s for the predictions section!
Season Predictions
RB
Anakin Skywalker / Bertie Mannering-Phipps (aka BMP)
I put these two together because Anakin and BMP make up the new Baltimore backfield. With Kumquat Archipelago making a move through free agency to Sarasota and Ceti Pyxis swapping over to TE, these two fresh S43 players have a chance to make a splash during their debut on the ISFL stage.
Immediately with these two, I don’t expect them to do thaaaat well, most ISFL backfields have a 1k TPE monster with the secondary coming in at TPE levels that these two have. Nothing against them but they’re just not ready to shoulder the load at the next level yet.
I expect Anakin to perform at a higher level than BMP, with Rocky Moreaux and Shane Turnbull as maxed WR vets and an up and coming Sam Mercury as well, Baltimore and Beatz will aim to move the ball through the air, and Anakin at a higher TPE level as well as being a receiving back will do some damage.
Anakin projects to do damage just by having more volume forced through him while BMP probably picks up some short yardage work and will not be so relevant fantasy wise.
Hercules Henry
Woelkers is a true rookie as Hercules makes his way from the Ducks right onto the field in Colorado, should be a short flight at least.
Hercules Henry finds himself in a very very similar situation with Anakin and BMP, coming in at about 350 TPE, Henry is behind a 673 TPE RB in Swamp Maiden, so a lower TPE backfield once again. Colorado is also very uniquely positioned in this league with Mister Hogmally being such an outlier and a force to be reckoned with.
The most damning thing for Henry is that Henry Oswald-Newman is the RB2 in this depth chart, coming in with nearly half a decade of experience. I don’t foresee Henry making much of a splash in the ISFL this season but the experience gain for them should make them immensely dangerous in seasons to come.
Kyle Bessey
Pokecraft was my surprise pick in the ISFL S43 draft, he got drafted way higher than I thought he might, but boy has he lived up to it. Bessey finds himself as RB3 in a backfield that also has the illustrious Armor Queen and Pete Zuh.
As a receiving back, Bessey should find himself on the field in more packages and find more utility points wise for this upcoming season. As a dynasty player with Bessey on my bench, I’m very excited to see what they’ll do a season or two down the line when they become a much clearer lead RB as Armor Queen and Pete Zuh age out of the ISFL.
RB Predictions
I don’t know how many points people actually get, through week 1 we’ve had the RBs go from 92 (Anakin Skywalker) to 4 (Bertie Mannering-Phipps).
92 is what Armor Queen managed to get during Week 1, and if we project Anakin to be around the RB16 mark that he is now, his 92 points in Week 1 seems like a high mark excepting for the wins when Baltimore wins + Anakin punches in a touchdown.
Looking for reference points for rookies:
Swamp Maiden - 805 Pro Bowl points (50.3 avg)
Reginald Shrubbery - 894 Pro Bowl points (55.9 avg)
Ace Anderson - 1526 Pro Bowl points (95.4 avg)
I think from situation and TPE level, I don’t think anyone on our list is Ace Anderson, he was the RB10 in rushing yards and but that speaks more to how well Anderson did rather than a knock on any of our players.
I think Anakin will average around 80 points, which is pretty good for a rookie. As a reference point, Frank Dux had 2610 Pro Bowl points last season.
- Anakin Skywalker - 1280 Pro Bowl points
- Kyle Bessey - 250 Pro Bowl Points
- Bertie Mannering-Phipps - 180 Pro Bowl points
- Hercules Henry - 80 Pro Bowl points
These point totals are more representative of expectations of volume at the positions, keeping their TPE levels in mind as well as situation.
WR
Jordan Bamford
Bamford, unfortunately for personal stats, comes in to the ISFL in a WR4/TE sort of role, a true team player move that brought him up from a Portland team that is coming off of an Ultimini win and another appearance this past season.
So with that in mind, it’s hard to imagine Bamford making big Pro Bowl point moves, I expect a lot of blocking, some short yardage work, and gaining of experience for the upcoming seasons where he’ll quickly move into a WR2 role. Arizona as a whole is also pretty run heavy so I don’t expect that many points from WRs generally speaking outta the desert.
Orange Julius
OJ crushed the DSFL and makes a move up to the ISFL, with WR1 locked down by Keanu Calhoun, at least until S47, Orange Julius will supersede Otto the Orange in TPE very quickly, and next season will be a strong WR2, very similar to Bamford but just in a place with a bit more opportunity for volume. With the expectation that Josh Patterson and the San Jose Sabercats go quite pass heavy (44 attempts Week 1!), Julius will garner some large amount of target volume, he’s got 10 already and we’ve got 15 weeks left to go.
Thomas Sutha
Hey it’s me! I’m the highest TPE player on this list, I think, not by much as FSF and I are basically tied.
Sutha joins the Outlaws after 3 straight Pro-Bowls and 2 All-Pros with the Ducks and is in a very weird spot depth chart wise. We’ve got Benji Aguilera killing it as WR1 and Captain Billy Stinkwater with his years of experience and franchise records as a WR2, but it does get a little iffy when a player is deeper into regression.
Sutha being a WR2.5 in a run heavy offence looks to do well as a speed threat but doesn’t look like he’ll do anything crazy or outlier-ish in the boxscore.
Thomas Passarelli
Passarelli is not a rookie! What the heck! He’s on this list because I’ve got a total receiving yardage bet going with him and he’s a cool guy.
With Mardukas swapping over to WR and NOLA probably being in some losing game scripts this season, I expect Passarelli to improve from his 652 yard, 1 TD season.
WR Predictions
I’m going to be using Passarelli as a baseline for these predictions, and he got 657 Pro Bowl points last season, which seems like a very respectable number.- Orange Julius - 1100 Pro Bowl points
- Thomas Passarelli - 800 Pro Bowl points
- Thomas Sutha - 700 Pro Bowl points
- Jordan Bamford - 175 Pro Bowl points
I wanted to put myself at 801 Pro Bowl points and Passarelli at 800 but I just think that Passarelli is going to get way more volume in NOLA this season plus it feels bad to write a list that is immediately wrong.
TE
La’Fluke Paris-Johnson
Hemhem aka LFPJ is our lone TE in this season’s call-ups, and he’s a swap from WR too!
I can’t imagine LFPJ does too much damage on the boxscore because of Hogmally existing on the same roster as him. Hogmally is just a big well of gravity and while I really do hope that Paris-Johnson does well, his 11 yard, 1 TD game will be around the peak of his performances this season, is my guess, but we could also get into the classic TE performance of 40 yard receiving games, and that might put La’Fluke Paris-Johnson at a 30 point per game average.
Prediction: 400 Pro Bowl points
Projections in the NFL vs Rookie Projections
OKAY I KNOW I SAID I WOULDN’T DO MORE WORK THAN A SMALL ARTICLE BUT I LIED. TYLER THE CREATOR GIF HERE.
If you’d like to check out the Gemini award winning article S42-S44 Prospect Power Rankings where I’ve put all the combine and DSFL stats of players in those seasons into an NFL draft, lets do a little cross referencing and see if my predictions fit where the players actually landed in the draft!
- Anakin Skywalker - 1280 Pro Bowl points / Middle Second
- Orange Julius - 1100 Pro Bowl points / Top of First
- Thomas Passarelli - 800 Pro Bowl points / Top of First
- Thomas Sutha - 700 Pro Bowl points / Middle First
- La’Fluke Paris-Johnson - 400 Pro Bowl points / Middle Second
- Kyle Bessey - 250 Pro Bowl points / Middle Second
- Bertie Mannering-Phipps - 180 Pro Bowl points / Early Second
- Jordan Bamford - 175 Pro Bowl points / Late Second
- Hercules Henry - 80 Pro Bowl points / Too new!
It makes sense that a lot of players here on the list are people who would be drafted earlier, they’re players who had higher TPE in the DSFL and are probably more engaged.
Lets imagine the scenario to be all of these players hitting the ISFL after being drafted (weird because we’re clearly giving bumps to players who are older but not controlling for it).
OJ and Passarelli were clear, clear must drafts in the top of the first and fans would love to see them projected as such high performances. I think fans would be disappointed to see them not projected to have record crushing rookie seasons, although Passarelli would get more of a pass since he’s a position swap (in the ISFL canon).
Anakin would be an Antonio Gibson situation where I gave him a scout note of “Very agile but doesn’t have the physical talent for the next level” and bulked up a bit and a great coaching staff found him a place where his shifty movement in open space made him a force.
I think for the rest, no one stands out, kinda all fits around where you’d expect from rookies starting in the NFL.
Conclusion
I'm posting this after Week 1 where I'm using the usage from those games to write my projections, so I could be waaaaay off-base, I think particularly on Kyle Bessey as Running Backs can get a sneaky large amount of usage.
Please hit the poll to guess the skill-position ORotY and read the follow-up article after the season to see how it all actually shook out!
Ultimus: S46, S47
ISFL Most Dedicated Member: S46
Gemini Awards: S42 Best Article (Series), S44 Best Article (Limited), S46 Best Author, S47 Best Author, S48 Best Article (Limited)
DSFL Most Dedicated Member: S42
Getting Defensive Podcast: S42 New Player Silver Medalist
ISFL All-Rookie Team: WR1 (S45)
DSFL Offensive Player of the Year: S43
DSFL First-team All-Pro: S43, S44
DSFL Pro Bowl: S42, S43, S44
S43 R1.01 - Arizona Outlaws
S42 R1.04 - Minnesota Grey Ducks
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