12-24-2023, 04:55 AM
(This post was last modified: 12-29-2023, 11:06 AM by lemonoppy. Edited 1 time in total.)
I've been wanting to write this article up for a while having compiled the data a few months back, and what better time than in a double media week! I would love to update the data with S43-45 but unless I'm missing something, I don't think there's an easy way to get predictions scores from the new master PPT sheet, only the TPE.
Anyway, on to the insights!
Our data covers 12 seasons of 16 weeks, meaning 192 possible weeks that could have been predicted. Speaking from experience, I know how easy it is to forget to submit so it's pretty incredible that three users, @Yeenoghu, @.simo and @BRNXBOMBERS, haven't missed a single prediction submission. @Opera_Phantom, @ZootTX and @ckroyal92 were almost perfect having missed just one each!
It's also Yeenoghu, Simo and BRNX who are top of the charts for both total correct picks and rounded TPE:
Most Unrounded TPE
1 - Yeenoghu (441)
2 - .simo (432.5)
2 - BRNXB0MBERS (432.5)
4 - Opera_Phantom (431.5)
5 - Tesla (431)
6 - Crunk (429)
7 - sakrosankt (428)
8 - Fronk (424)
9 - Mojojojo (416)
10 - CementHands (415)
Most Rounded TPE
1 - Yeenoghu (491)
2 - .simo (487)
3 - BRNXB0MBERS (485)
4 - Opera_Phantom (484)
5 - Crunk (481)
6 - Tesla (479)
7 - sakrosankt (474)
8 - Fronk (469)
9 - Z-Whiz (465)
10 - CementHands (464)
Let's take a look at only seasons where a user completed all 16 predictions. Who has the best average performance? Unsurprisingly, the best averages go to those who were 'one and done', or those who only recently joined the league:
Best average unrounded TPE
1 - yosh (41, 1 season(s))
2 - Pokecraft (40.5, 1 season(s))
2 - toofpete (40.5, 1 season(s))
4 - UptownCord (40, 1 season(s))
4 - lennylyons (40, 1 season(s))
6 - Rabidsponge21 (39.5, 2 season(s))
6 - BWIII (39.5, 1 season(s))
8 - Beck (39, 1 season(s))
8 - Seymour (39, 1 season(s))
8 - Thor (39, 1 season(s))
Best average rounded TPE
1 - lennylyons (45, 1 season(s))
2 - yosh (44, 1 season(s))
2 - toofpete (44, 1 season(s))
2 - Seymour (44, 1 season(s))
2 - Thor (44, 1 season(s))
6 - shanghai_kid (43.8, 4 season(s))
7 - Cook (43.7, 3 season(s))
7 - H0PPY75 (43.7, 3 season(s))
9 - Rabidsponge21 (43.5, 2 season(s))
10 - Pokecraft (43, 1 season(s))
What about the best individual seasons?
Best unrounded TPE season
1 - shanghai_kid S40 (44 TPE)
2 - ImSatanJunior S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - JBLAZE_THE_BOSS S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Twenty6 S39 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Reedy0rNot S40 (41.5 TPE)
2 - BaconBrother S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Opera_Phantom S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Crunk S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Rabidsponge21 S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - BRNXB0MBERS S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Number 82 S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Ulaire S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - KaleSalad S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - .simo S42 (41.5 TPE)
Best rounded TPE season
1 - shanghai_kid S40 (50 TPE)
2 - ImSatanJunior S42 (46 TPE)
2 - JBLAZE_THE_BOSS S42 (46 TPE)
2 - ztarwarz S42 (46 TPE)
2 - KaleSalad S32 (46 TPE)
6 - Twenty6 S39 (45 TPE)
6 - Reedy0rNot S40 (45 TPE)
6 - JMoney762 S40 (45 TPE)
6 - Cook S40 (45 TPE)
6 - dude_woman S40 (45 TPE)
6 - FleshBagSoup S40 (45 TPE)
6 - jeffie43 S39 (45 TPE)
6 - ValorX77 S40 (45 TPE)
6 - lennylyons S40 (45 TPE)
6 - Fronk S42 (45 TPE)
6 - CLG Rampage S42 (45 TPE)
6 - Yeenoghu S42 (45 TPE)
6 - Sebster S42 (45 TPE)
6 - Aneeqs S42 (45 TPE)
6 - Opera_Phantom S32 (45 TPE)
6 - y2bobman S32 (45 TPE)
6 - .simo S32 (45 TPE)
6 - Pib S32 (45 TPE)
6 - BRNXB0MBERS S32 (45 TPE)
6 - Z-Whiz S32 (45 TPE)
It's pretty clear S40 and S42 were great seasons for predictability, with the majority of these two lists featuring those two seasons, while the old Arizona guard did well in S32.
Let's take a closer look at which seasons were the most 'predictable'. To try and estimate this, I took only the results of users who completed all 16 predictions in a season:
Average unrounded TPE by season (users with 16 games submitted):
S31 - 30.4 TPE
S32 - 35 TPE
S33 - 33 TPE
S34 - 32.3 TPE
S35 - 33.9 TPE
S36 - 35.1 TPE
S37 - 36.4 TPE
S38 - 32.9 TPE
S39 - 36.1 TPE
S40 - 36.9 TPE
S41 - 32.7 TPE
S42 - 37.4 TPE
The data does seem to backup that S40 and S42 were especially strong for predictions. S31 was by far the most random, while S41 was also pretty unpredictable.
If there's anything else you'd like to see extracted from the data, feel free to post in the comments!
Anyway, on to the insights!
Our data covers 12 seasons of 16 weeks, meaning 192 possible weeks that could have been predicted. Speaking from experience, I know how easy it is to forget to submit so it's pretty incredible that three users, @Yeenoghu, @.simo and @BRNXBOMBERS, haven't missed a single prediction submission. @Opera_Phantom, @ZootTX and @ckroyal92 were almost perfect having missed just one each!
It's also Yeenoghu, Simo and BRNX who are top of the charts for both total correct picks and rounded TPE:
Most Unrounded TPE
1 - Yeenoghu (441)
2 - .simo (432.5)
2 - BRNXB0MBERS (432.5)
4 - Opera_Phantom (431.5)
5 - Tesla (431)
6 - Crunk (429)
7 - sakrosankt (428)
8 - Fronk (424)
9 - Mojojojo (416)
10 - CementHands (415)
Most Rounded TPE
1 - Yeenoghu (491)
2 - .simo (487)
3 - BRNXB0MBERS (485)
4 - Opera_Phantom (484)
5 - Crunk (481)
6 - Tesla (479)
7 - sakrosankt (474)
8 - Fronk (469)
9 - Z-Whiz (465)
10 - CementHands (464)
Let's take a look at only seasons where a user completed all 16 predictions. Who has the best average performance? Unsurprisingly, the best averages go to those who were 'one and done', or those who only recently joined the league:
Best average unrounded TPE
1 - yosh (41, 1 season(s))
2 - Pokecraft (40.5, 1 season(s))
2 - toofpete (40.5, 1 season(s))
4 - UptownCord (40, 1 season(s))
4 - lennylyons (40, 1 season(s))
6 - Rabidsponge21 (39.5, 2 season(s))
6 - BWIII (39.5, 1 season(s))
8 - Beck (39, 1 season(s))
8 - Seymour (39, 1 season(s))
8 - Thor (39, 1 season(s))
Best average rounded TPE
1 - lennylyons (45, 1 season(s))
2 - yosh (44, 1 season(s))
2 - toofpete (44, 1 season(s))
2 - Seymour (44, 1 season(s))
2 - Thor (44, 1 season(s))
6 - shanghai_kid (43.8, 4 season(s))
7 - Cook (43.7, 3 season(s))
7 - H0PPY75 (43.7, 3 season(s))
9 - Rabidsponge21 (43.5, 2 season(s))
10 - Pokecraft (43, 1 season(s))
What about the best individual seasons?
Best unrounded TPE season
1 - shanghai_kid S40 (44 TPE)
2 - ImSatanJunior S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - JBLAZE_THE_BOSS S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Twenty6 S39 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Reedy0rNot S40 (41.5 TPE)
2 - BaconBrother S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Opera_Phantom S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Crunk S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Rabidsponge21 S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - BRNXB0MBERS S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Number 82 S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - Ulaire S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - KaleSalad S42 (41.5 TPE)
2 - .simo S42 (41.5 TPE)
Best rounded TPE season
1 - shanghai_kid S40 (50 TPE)
2 - ImSatanJunior S42 (46 TPE)
2 - JBLAZE_THE_BOSS S42 (46 TPE)
2 - ztarwarz S42 (46 TPE)
2 - KaleSalad S32 (46 TPE)
6 - Twenty6 S39 (45 TPE)
6 - Reedy0rNot S40 (45 TPE)
6 - JMoney762 S40 (45 TPE)
6 - Cook S40 (45 TPE)
6 - dude_woman S40 (45 TPE)
6 - FleshBagSoup S40 (45 TPE)
6 - jeffie43 S39 (45 TPE)
6 - ValorX77 S40 (45 TPE)
6 - lennylyons S40 (45 TPE)
6 - Fronk S42 (45 TPE)
6 - CLG Rampage S42 (45 TPE)
6 - Yeenoghu S42 (45 TPE)
6 - Sebster S42 (45 TPE)
6 - Aneeqs S42 (45 TPE)
6 - Opera_Phantom S32 (45 TPE)
6 - y2bobman S32 (45 TPE)
6 - .simo S32 (45 TPE)
6 - Pib S32 (45 TPE)
6 - BRNXB0MBERS S32 (45 TPE)
6 - Z-Whiz S32 (45 TPE)
It's pretty clear S40 and S42 were great seasons for predictability, with the majority of these two lists featuring those two seasons, while the old Arizona guard did well in S32.
Let's take a closer look at which seasons were the most 'predictable'. To try and estimate this, I took only the results of users who completed all 16 predictions in a season:
Average unrounded TPE by season (users with 16 games submitted):
S31 - 30.4 TPE
S32 - 35 TPE
S33 - 33 TPE
S34 - 32.3 TPE
S35 - 33.9 TPE
S36 - 35.1 TPE
S37 - 36.4 TPE
S38 - 32.9 TPE
S39 - 36.1 TPE
S40 - 36.9 TPE
S41 - 32.7 TPE
S42 - 37.4 TPE
The data does seem to backup that S40 and S42 were especially strong for predictions. S31 was by far the most random, while S41 was also pretty unpredictable.
If there's anything else you'd like to see extracted from the data, feel free to post in the comments!