01-04-2024, 05:48 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2024, 01:54 PM by xenosthelegend. Edited 1 time in total.)
I'm pretty sure these are all correct now. Tiebreakers as we understand it are H2H > Conf Record > PF > PA
In the ASFC:
Honolulu has the 1 seed wrapped up.
The last two spots in the playoff will be between Arizona, Austin, and Orange County - with the OCO/AUS game playing a key role as the winner will be in. Arizona is in with a win, but can also make it if OCO AND NYS win.
In the NSFC:
Colorado still has not technically clinched a playoff berth - in 1/16 scenarios they stand at (serious) risk of missing out. A COL loss + SAR win + BAL win + CHI win = 3 way tie for 2nd, which tiebreaks on Points For. The Yeti have not exactly been scoring points this year, and so unless they score 115 more points than the Hawks do, they're out.
Sarasota have 2/16 scenarios where they are at risk of being eliminated (SAR loss, CHI loss, BAL win), but they hold the PF advantage over BER by 34.
Baltimore are pretty much win-and-in, as even the tiebreak scenarios that could eliminate them still place them at a huge PF advantage (115 PF more than Colorado, 49 PF more than Chicago, 34 more PF than Berlin).
Chicago can get in if they win and get some help from YKW upsetting BAL. They can also get in with a CTC win + SAR win + YKW win, or a CTC win + SAR win + PF advantage over COL.
Berlin have 2/16 scenarios where they do get in, and 2 more where they need a huge offensive performance to tiebreak. The two main scenarios involve a BER win + YKW win + AZ win, bumping CHI and BAL down to 8-8 and keeping BER up at 9-7. They can also get in with a BER win + AZ win + PF advantage over SAR - though they are 34 points behind the Sailfish. Since they play the Sailfish, they really just need to win by 35 points or more and hope Arizona win.
Hopefully these are correct! I haven't actually paid any attention to the league this season so I couldn't tell you any odds - but looks like W16 will be very interesting.
In the ASFC:
Honolulu has the 1 seed wrapped up.
The last two spots in the playoff will be between Arizona, Austin, and Orange County - with the OCO/AUS game playing a key role as the winner will be in. Arizona is in with a win, but can also make it if OCO AND NYS win.
In the NSFC:
Colorado still has not technically clinched a playoff berth - in 1/16 scenarios they stand at (serious) risk of missing out. A COL loss + SAR win + BAL win + CHI win = 3 way tie for 2nd, which tiebreaks on Points For. The Yeti have not exactly been scoring points this year, and so unless they score 115 more points than the Hawks do, they're out.
Sarasota have 2/16 scenarios where they are at risk of being eliminated (SAR loss, CHI loss, BAL win), but they hold the PF advantage over BER by 34.
Baltimore are pretty much win-and-in, as even the tiebreak scenarios that could eliminate them still place them at a huge PF advantage (115 PF more than Colorado, 49 PF more than Chicago, 34 more PF than Berlin).
Chicago can get in if they win and get some help from YKW upsetting BAL. They can also get in with a CTC win + SAR win + YKW win, or a CTC win + SAR win + PF advantage over COL.
Berlin have 2/16 scenarios where they do get in, and 2 more where they need a huge offensive performance to tiebreak. The two main scenarios involve a BER win + YKW win + AZ win, bumping CHI and BAL down to 8-8 and keeping BER up at 9-7. They can also get in with a BER win + AZ win + PF advantage over SAR - though they are 34 points behind the Sailfish. Since they play the Sailfish, they really just need to win by 35 points or more and hope Arizona win.
Hopefully these are correct! I haven't actually paid any attention to the league this season so I couldn't tell you any odds - but looks like W16 will be very interesting.