*Playoff Preview

[caleb.grim]

Hi everyone! I thought I would put together a playoff preview for the Wildcard Round. In case you are curious, the advantages are determined by standardizing the averages for each team and comparing z-scores. Good luck to all the teams tonight!

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ASFC Wildcard Game

Arizona Outlaws (9-7) @ Austin Copperheads (9-7)

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AZ Scoring Offense vs. AUS Scoring Defense

23.1 PPG (10th) vs. 27.3 PPG (12th)

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Advantage:

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AUS Scoring Offense vs. AZ Scoring Defense

28.0 PPG (3rd) vs. 20.5 PPG (1st)

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Advantage: 

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AZ Total Offense vs. AUS Total Defense

314.2 YPG (14th) vs. 357.2 YPG (6th)

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Advantage:

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AUS Total Offense vs. AZ Total Defense

384.4 YPG (4th) vs. 346.0 YPG (1st)

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Advantage:

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AZ Run Offense vs. AUS Run Defense

114.6 YPG (1st) vs. 98.8 YPG (13th)

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Advantage:

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AZ Pass Offense vs. AUS Pass Defense

199.7 YPG (14th) vs. 258.4 YPG (3rd)

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Advantage:

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AUS Run Offense vs. AZ Run Defense

100.9 YPG (3rd) vs. 78.3 YPG (4th)

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Advantage:

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AUS Pass Offense vs. AZ Pass Defense

283.5 YPG (5th) vs. 267.7 YPG (6th)

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Advantage:

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Regular Season Meetings

Week 1 at Austin: Austin 24 - Arizona 16

Week 15 at Arizona: Arizona 24 - Austin 17

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Advantage: None
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Home Field Advantage

Austin Home Record: 5-3 (League Average: 4.6 Home Wins)

Arizona Away Record: 3-5 (League Average: 3.4 Away Wins)

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Advantage:

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Record in Last 6 Games (Past Two Updates)

Arizona: 4-2

Austin: 3-3

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Advantage:

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Arizona Keys to the Game:

1. Get Danny Nedelko (@Crunk) the ball early and often

Arizona is 7-2 on the season when Nedelko gets at least 100 rushing yards in a game. Some quick math shows you that when Nedelko doesn’t get over 100 yards the Outlaws are 2-5.

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2. Force Turnovers

In all of Arizona’s nine wins this season, they have had a positive turnover differential. With an offense that likes to run the ball and lacks explosive plays, good field position that turnovers create is at a premium.

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3. Score Early to put the pressure on rookie QB Jay Cue III (@Opera_Phantom)

In their previous two matchups, the team winning at halftime came away with the victory. Preventing Austin from using RB Howard Coward (@JKortesi81) by getting an early lead could go a long way to securing a victory.

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Austin Keys to the Game:

1. Get to the Quarterback

In the Copperheads first win against Arizona in Week 1, they recorded 8 sacks in just 34 dropbacks. Disrupting a team that doesn’t pass the ball very often with pressure will help get the Austin defense off the field.

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2. Stay Efficient in the Passing Game

Jay Cue III (@Opera_Phantom) has had a great rookie season at QB for the Copperheads, leading the ISFL in passer rating. Austin also has two players in the top 4 on average yards per reception in Delores Bickerman (@Kyamprac) and Jeff Newman (@Lumosityfan). Gaining chunk plays in the passing game will allow the Copperheads to keep a balance on offense.

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3. Find a Way to Win the Close Game

The Copperheads have won three games this season when they have trailed in the 4th Quarter. With 21 plays of over 40 yards on offense, they are capable of scoring from anywhere on the field. Only one of their losses this season has been by double digits but they have also won just a single game by double digits. So there is a good possibility the game will be close in the 4th quarter.

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Advantage Count: - 6, - 4

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Prediction based on Advantage Count: In what I foresee as a close lower scoring game, I expect the Outlaws to move on by taking an early lead and using the run game to shorten the game.

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23 - 19

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NSFC Wildcard Game

Sarasota Sailfish (9-7) @ Baltimore Hawks (9-7)

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SAR Scoring Offense vs. BAL Scoring Defense

27.6 PPG (4th) vs. 24.6 PPG (7th)

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Advantage:

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BAL Scoring Offense vs. SAR Scoring Defense

27.1 PPG (5th) vs. 26.2 PPG (9th)

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Advantage:

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SAR Total Offense vs. BAL Total Defense

391.1 YPG (2nd) vs. 359.3 YPG (7th)

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Advantage:

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BAL Total Offense vs. SAR Total Defense

356.2 YPG (8th) vs. 356.4 YPG (5th)

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Advantage:

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SAR Run Offense vs. BAL Run Defense

81.4 YPG (8th) vs. 70.6 YPG (1st)

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Advantage:

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SAR Pass Offense vs. BAL Pass Defense

309.7 YPG (3rd) vs. 288.8 YPG (11th)

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Advantage:

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BAL Run Offense vs. SAR Run Defense

73.3 YPG (11th) vs. 96.9 YPG (12th)

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Advantage:

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BAL Pass Offense vs. SAR Pass Defense

282.9 YPG (6th) vs. 259.5 YPG (4th)

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Advantage:

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Regular Season Meetings

Week 4 at Sarasota: Baltimore 34 - Sarasota 24

Week 14 at Baltimore: Baltimore 33 - Sarasota 30

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Advantage:
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Home Field Advantage

Baltimore Home Record: 5-3 (League Average: 4.6 Home Wins)

Sarasota Away Record: 5-3 (League Average: 3.4 Away Wins)

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Advantage:  

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Record in Last 6 Games (Past Two Updates)

Sarasota: 3-3

Baltimore: 3-3

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Advantage: none

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Sarasota Keys to the Game:

1. Stop the Baltimore Run Game

In both losses to the Hawks this season, the Sailfish have been dominated on the ground. In the first game of the season, Baltimore averaged 7.8 yards per attempt and rookie Anakin Skywalker (@ForSucksFake) reached 100 yards rushing on just 9 carries. In the rematch, the Hawks leaned into the run game to the tune of 174 yards.

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2. Avoid Negative Plays

Willier Miller (@Sebster) has taken a career high 71 sacks this season. Baltimore leads the league with 77 sacks. In the two games against the Hawks, the Sailfish have also committed 7 more penalties. These negative plays are drive killers.

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3. Win the 4th Quarter

This seems like an obvious statement but Sarasota averages giving up on average a touchdown per game in the 4th. To add to this, the Sailfish are 7-2 when they score more points in the 4th than their opponents.

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Baltimore Keys to the Game:

1. Trust the Quarterback

Preston Beatz (@DarknessRising) is the best player on offense for Baltimore. One of only three quarterbacks with less than 10 interceptions on the season, the Hawks can lean on their quarterback in tough moments.

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2. Convert on 3rd Down

The Hawks have been a dominant force when their offense can convert on 3rd downs at a clip higher than 40%, winning 4 of 5 games when hitting that mark. In their three most recent losses however, they have gone a combined 11/43 on 3rd downs.

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3. Make the Sailfish One-Dimensional

In both wins against Sarasota this season, the Hawks have allowed less than 3 yards per attempt in the running game. By forcing the Sailfish to throw, their offense becomes that much more predictable.

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Advantage Count: 7 - 3

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Prediction Based on Advantage Count: While the Sailfish lost both matchups to the Hawks during the regular season, I see this game becoming a shootout. And if there is one thing that Sarasota can do, it’s put up points in bunches. Here Sarasota’s strength is Baltimore’s weakness and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sarasota gain 400+ yards through the air to secure a come from behind victory.

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37 - 35

[Chicken Lips]

This lines up well with my predictions, i support

[Amkamkamk]

This is the good stuff. Great post.

[Bamford13]

Jay Cue III has zero (0) playoff wins without Jordan Bamford on his team

[caleb.grim]

Jay Cue III has zero (0) playoff wins without Jordan Bamford on his team

Counterpoint, Jordan Bamford has zero (0) playoff wins without Jay Cue III on his team.

[Bamford13]

Jay Cue III has zero (0) playoff wins without Jordan Bamford on his team

Counterpoint, Jordan Bamford has zero (0) playoff wins without Jay Cue III on his team.

Now Jay Cue III has (1) playoff win without Jordan Bamford on his team

[Opera_Phantom]

2. Stay Efficient in the Passing Game


Ahah no.