01-24-2024, 04:46 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-30-2024, 04:38 PM by lemonoppy. Edited 2 times in total.)
Hey all! Sorry for not getting this out sooner. Work is actually making me work. Wildly inconsiderate of them. I've tried telling them that I can't and that it's getting in the way of my sim football league, but that just made my boss angry and he started spouting off about weird words like "ethics" and "integrity". Like I even know what those words mean.
Anyway, at least the SFWG rankings came out kinda sorta on time, so hopefully you all have been able to use that. Now it's time for my annual half-baked deep dive into why I ranked everyone the way I did, so buckle up and let's dive in (and ignore any typos as a result of having no time to proofread)!
Quarterbacks
1) Wolfie McDummy Jr -
Despite winning the NSFC last season, Colorado's offense was shockingly abysmal. 3rd worst offense in the league abysmal. McDummy was not exempt, finishing the season as the QB11 in fantasy. What's worse, this is looking like it's becoming something of a trend for the Yeti QB as McDummy's pass attempts have fallen precipitously over the last couple of seasons. So why the QB1 projection? Schemes change fast in the ISFL, and it's impossible to not like the Colorado passing game on paper, history be damned (well, recent history anyway). McDummy is currently in a three-way race to be the highest TPE QB in the league, he's got at least a respectable receiving corps, and the Colorado running game looks more like a walking game. I've been burned each of the last two seasons by the Yeti offense falling flat, but maybe it'll actually work this time. Long live the Yeeti!
2) Willier Miller -
Another season, another elite fantasy QB performance out of Sarasota. There must be something in those Caribbean waters. The S46 edition of the Sailfish offense doesn't boast quite the same level of receiving talent as we've become accustomed to, but that doesn't mean it's bad. Honestly the bigger concern is that running back Ace Anderson might start commanding more of a workload.
3) Lloyd Bannings -
Bannings had shockingly high volume last season, but couldn't quite convert it into fantasy points. If the volume persists, though, there's some very real upside here in the Orange County offense. Bannings himself is over 1k TPE, the Otters' running back is over 1k TPE, and they now have two receivers over 1k TPE (and very nearly a 1k TPE tight end to boot). By all rights this should be a high flying offense, which means plenty of touchdowns to go around.
4) Josh Patterson -
Between the swapping of running back Lord Farquaads to offensive line and Patterson's own growth, I sense a shift in San Jose's offensive scheme coming. The Sabercats' running back platoon is a little on the young side to be particularly effective, so on the surface it looks like this offense is going to live and die by the Patterson - Calhoun connection. I don't necessarily expect Patterson to be wildly efficient, but I do expect him to jump from his 12th place finish in pass attempts in S45 to potentially being top 3 in S46. Volume is king, and more chances provides more potential upside.
5) Donovan Winters III -
It's been an established rule for a while now to avoid Arizona's passing game since they've been in quite the "ride or die" mindset with stalwart running back Danny Nedelko. That era might finally be ending. Nedelko is finally succumbing to father time and the Outlaws brought in some serious competition for playing time for good measure. Meanwhile, Winters is one of three QBs competing for the honor of top TPE QB in the league and he's got quite an assortment of weapons at his disposal. There is still some risk that Arizona will continue to lean on their running game, which is why Winters is as low as he is for me. There's some upside here, though, for those willing to gamble on a scheme shift in the desert.
6) Octavion Speedings -
Don't look now, but the Second Line look like they may finally have gotten the band back together. Speedings showed out in S45 with both respectable volume and respectable efficiency. Neither metric were eye-popping, but combined it resulted in a QB7 fantasy finish. With another year of growth for both Speedings and all his weapons, the NOLA QB could make a serious impact on the fantasy landscape.
7) Thor Bollrsveifla -
No, I'm not going to figure out how to type that properly with accents on my keyboard. What I am going to do, though, is celebrate the return of the scrambling QB! That's right, Bollrsveifla is a scrambling archetype QB, which is just as much a cheat code for ISFL fantasy as it is for NFL fantasy. What's more, Cape Town's offense is loaded with weapons, including the league's best running back and best receiving tandem. So why do I have Thor ranked this low? He's coming into the league at about 750 TPE. That's not good for a QB. Still, running QB go brrr. He's got as safe a floor as anyone in the top 6, and could easily fly to a QB1 finish with a bit of touchdown luck.
8) Painted Penguin -
Now we're getting to the weird section of ISFL projections. Penguin is coming off a rough fantasy season, understandably given Chicago's commitment to giving league legend Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin one last hurrah as a workhorse back. We all lose our battle with regression in the end, though, and JHM is no exception. Penguin doesn't exactly have a murderer's row of receiving weapons, but there is certainly a better concentration of talent in the Butchers' passing game than running game at this point. I expect a significant bump in pass attempts for Chicago, which means a major improvement in fantasy output for Penguin.
Running Backs
1) Frank Dux -
Dux was already the fantasy RB3 last season, and at a glance it looks like his role in this offense is only going to continue to grow. The longtime receiving tandem of McHollywood and Mara are fading quickly due to regression, leaving only Dux and wideout Sean Robinson as the premier weapons in the Silverbacks' offense. Dux is likely looking at another season of a workhorse rushing load and could very well find himself earning a few more targets on top.
2) Nakiri Ayame -
Ayame's bread and butter last season was as a receiver out of the backfield, a role good enough to earn them the RB1 overall fantasy finish. However, there is some serious concern that Ayame won't see nearly as many targets going into S46. Sure, those targets should be replaced by more carries (whatever QB Thor Bollrsveifla doesn't keep for himself, at least), but carries simply don't produce as much fantasy upside. The volume will still be there, just maybe not the right kind to repeat Ayame's dominant S45 performance.
3) Money Tolliver -
Speaking of volume, the Wraiths may not boast quite as much of a powerhouse offense but Tolliver is the engine behind whatever it does accomplish. He already led all running backs in total offense last season, and now he no longer has to worry about the corpse of former backfield mate Adebayo Akinfenwa vulturing his touchdowns (8 TDs on 59 carries). Yellowknife's offense is at serious risk of being anemic given the lack of weapons in the receiving game, but there's a strong likelihood that Tolliver will dominate whatever touchdowns the Wraiths do score.
4) Howard Coward -
Coward was already the RB6 last season, and with backfield mate Jeff Newman really feeling regression (along with pretty much all of Austin's receiving weapons) the door is wide open for Coward to improve on those numbers going into S46. The main risk for Coward is that the old offense will lose a step and lower the tide for all ships, but, much like Tolliver, Coward's guaranteed share should more than make up for any high level step back in the Copperheads' production.
5) Kyle Crane -
S45 was admittedly rough on Crane as the New Orleans running back was both inefficient and given little volume to work with. The volume thing could very well still be an issue going into next season, but Crane should benefit from a rising tide raising all ships (metaphorically, of course - I get the feeling that New Orleans would prefer to not have high tides). The Second Line offense is really starting to come into its own, and a few more catches or touchdowns would go a long way for Crane.
6) Reginald Shrubbery -
It's easy to get lost in the plethora of weapons the Otters have at their disposal, but Shrubbery enters S46 as the clear cut workhorse back for what should be a juggernaut offense. He should be a safe pick with a high floor, and maybe some RB1 overall upside if the Otters lean a bit more into their running game.
7) Stetson David -
The bad news for David is that Honolulu's offense appears to be on the downswing as their Ultimus window starts to close. The good news is that David is set to take over a much larger portion of the backfield work with longtime Hahalua star Bean Delphine Jr regressing into one final season. There might be fewer TDs to go around, but David's increasing share of the pie should keep him afloat.
8) Ace Anderson -
Normally I'd say a clear cut workhorse running back whose TPE exceeds every receiving weapon on their team would be an easy RB1, but let's be honest. This is Sarasota we're talking about. They don't run the ball in Florida. Still, Anderson's status as a workhorse gives him a solid floor, and the fact Sarasota's cupboard is a little bare of receiving weapons could lead to more receiving work for Anderson.
9) Anakin Skywalker -
In general I'm pretty low on the Baltimore offense heading into S46. The entire passing game is regressing into the dirt and Skywalker himself is hardly outstanding. However, with the departure of Bertie Mannering-Phipps, Skywalker now has a stranglehold on the Baltimore backfield. A workhorse role is a workhorse role, and perhaps the Hawks still have just enough life in them to keep Skywalker relevant in the fantasy conversation.
10) Danny Nedelko -
Yes, this is a massive drop for the perennial fantasy stalwart. Yes, I might very well be eating crow on this if Arizona defies my expectations once again (looking at you, Sherwin Blue). At the end of the day, though, what I'm seeing on paper simply doesn't point to another season of Nedelko dominance. Nedelko's regression lines up perfectly with the ascension of the Outlaws' passing game, and the arrival of Bertie Manning-Phipps leads me to believe a committee backfield might be in store for us. Arizona's offense should still be good and I certainly don't expect Nedelko to suddenly be untouchable, but if there was ever a time for a change this looks like it.
11) Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin -
It doesn't matter how feared and powerful you are, regression comes for us all. That even includes JHM. The perennial fantasy all star enters S46 a shell of his former self, and now appears to be slightly overshadowed by Chicago's passing game. There's even a very real concern that backup running back Jake Jefferson may seriously start cutting into JHM's workload, given the minimal TPE difference now. However, that doesn't mean JHM is dead yet. There's potential for one more respectable fantasy season.
12) Jeff Newman -
It wasn't exactly a surprise to see backfield mate Howard Coward take on the lead role in Austin's backfield last season, but the degree to which Newman was shoved aside certainly was. It's unlikely Newman will recapture much of the rushing work as regression leeches away his TPE, but there is a path to relevance as a receiver. Austin currently only has two wide receivers on the roster, and Newman has a higher TPE than both of them.
13) Armor Queen -
Armor Queen is on her last legs, quite literally as she announced her retirement post-Ultimus. Queen had a surprisingly productive fantasy season in S45 thanks to hoarding touchdowns and dominating receiving work for Berlin. I doubt that role will continue into S46, though. For one, while Queen still holds a solid TPE lead in the Fire Salamander backfield, she dropped a considerable amount of TPE from regression. For two, Berlin QB Adrian St. Christmas was brought back despite also getting beaten down by regression. The Berlin offense is likely to take a sizable step back, and Queen with it.
14) Kit Fisto -
With the swap of former lead back Lord Farquaads to offensive line, the road is paved for rookie Kit Fisto to take over a lackluster backfield. Only...Fisto isn't exactly dynamic either this early in his career. San Jose's fortunes are more likely to rest on the Patterson - Calhoun air connection, and whatever is left over will probably be split between Fisto and current backfield mate Maple Dogwood. The upside here is limited.
15) Swamp Maiden -
Even if the Yeti fix their offensive woes, it's more likely to be through the air than on the ground. The one thing Maiden had going for her was that she was Colorado's lead back, and even that isn't a sure thing anymore with the rise of Hercules Henry hot on her tail. Maiden will for sure get something, but probably not much.
16) Bertie Mannering-Phipps -
The Arizona backfield will go only one of two ways this season. Option one (and the option I'm personally betting on) is that the Outlaws are about to see a massive shift in offensive philosophy, from being a run first offense featuring Danny Nedelko to being a balanced - or even pass focused - offense that operates with a committee backfield. Option two is that the Outlaws continue to defy my expectations and feature Nedelko in a push to boost his Hall of Fame credentials. Either way, BMP doesn't have much upside here.
17) Maple Dogwood -
The other half of the San Jose backfield. Dogwood currently has a small TPE advantage over Fisto, but that advantage isn't going to last much longer at this rate. And again, the Sabercats figure to be rather pass happy, if TPE is anything to go by. There is also the risk that Dogwood simply acts as a fullback for future Hall of Fame hopeful Fisto. There are a lot of potential pitfalls here for Dogwood and not a lot of upside.
18) Kumquat Archipelago -
Archipelago has one foot in the grave at this point. He won't get much work in the backfield (backfield mate Ace Anderson eclipses Archipelago in TPE twice over), but his saving grace could be that this group of receivers is among the weakest Sarasota has had in a while, and there is no tight end on the roster at all. He'll find a receiving role somewhere, just don't expect much out of it.
Wide Receivers
1) National Treasure -
I am ready to be hurt again. If I'm predicting a major bounceback season for Wolfie McDummy Jr, then I better predict a big season for his clear cut WR1. Also important, tight end Mister Hogmally is regressing hard, clearing the way for Treasure to step up in a big way. It's a big risk given Colorado's recent history, but hey, no risk it no biscuit.
2) Johnny Blaze Jr -
Blaze might be getting a bit long in the tooth, but this is still Sarasota and he's still the WR1. He'll get his volume, same as always. Maybe his upside is a little limited compared to seasons past, but that floor is rock solid.
3) Keanu Calhoun -
I worry a little bit since the Patterson - Calhoun connection is still a little on the young side, but both are now sitting right around 1k TPE. That should be good enough to establish the pair as one of the better duos in the league, which should be featured given the relative strength of San Jose's passing game. If nothing else we know Calhoun will be a target hog.
4) Hank Mardukas -
You may not have realized it, but Mardukas is coming off a WR4 overall finish. It's hard to say if the Second Line will throw quite as much as they did last season, but the entire offense is looking to be on quite the upswing. Even if the volume drops a bit, the efficiency should carry a strong fantasy performance.
5) Big McLarge Huge -
As noted in the Lloyd Bannings blurb above, the Otters actually threw the third most pass attempts last season. It just didn't translate to fantasy success. With so many pieces of this offense above 1k TPE now, it's hard to believe that kind of bad luck will continue. Huge's biggest concern might very well be that there are too many mouths to feed. Even if the offense spreads the love a bit, there should be enough production to give Huge some huge upside.
6) Benji Aguilera -
Once again, if I'm betting on a shift in Arizona's offensive philosophy I better go all in. QB Donovan Winters III is one of the best QBs in the ISFL right now, and Aguilera is his clear top weapon. All the Outlaws need to do is open up the offense a bit and Aguilera will shine.
7) Emile Charles -
Berlin as a whole is really hurting from regression, including their QB who is currently bottom of the league in TPE. So why have Charles this high? Simple. Volume is king. Berlin led the league in pass attempts last season, and with their defense and running game getting hammered by regression there's little reason to suspect that will change much. Upside will be limited by what will almost certainly be an inefficient offense, but as long as Charles is getting 150+ targets the floor will be steady as they come.
8) Shane Turnbull -
The presumptive new WR1 in Baltimore finds himself in a very similar situation as Charles. The Hawks are facing severe regression across the board, with the added bonus of also having a pretty solid up and coming running back to shoulder some of the load. I think the Hawks will boast a better offense overall than the Fire Salamanders, but I suspect the passing volume will drop a bit from what we've become used to in Baltimore.
9) Sean Robinson -
As the power tandem of Mandrews McHollywood and Matthew Mara fade into the sunset, the door is open for Robinson to step up into a true alpha receiver role. There's some serious upside here, too. It's easy to overlook due to the sheer dominance of running back Frank Dux in the red zone, but New York finished last season with the 5th most pass attempts. If they can simply convert some of those rushing touchdowns into receiving touchdowns, Robinson could very well be in the running for WR1 overall. The two major caveats here are 1) Frank Dux is still around, and 2) last season was quite the anomaly for the Silverbacks run-pass balance. Robinson's potential range of outcomes is quite large as a result, but this could make him the perfect gamble for those interested in taking chances.
10) Florida Man -
The Hahalua offense isn't what it was just a few seasons ago, but that doesn't mean they're down for the count yet. Florida Man finds himself sitting atop the Honolulu receiving depth chart, which is potentially quite the lucrative position for a team still clinging to its Ultimus window. The big concern here is that Honolulu might lean more into its running game as QB Nova Montagne enters the twilight of her career.
11) Sem'ga Nah'sim -
The Butchers are a bit of an enigma entering S46. Their passing game appears to be their strength on offense, but they retained JHM. Nah'sim appeared poised to be the clear WR1, then Chicago traded for Jay Money. I'd still say Nah'sim should be the Butchers' WR1, but there is a wide range of potential outcomes here and maybe not enough upside to justify an early pick.
12) Delores Bickerman -
The Copperheads snuck in their Ultimus win at the right time because their receiving corps isn't going to last much longer. Bickerman is still clinging to the WR1 role in Austin, which could potentially continue to be lucrative if QB Jay Cue III continues to play like he did last season. However, this appears to be quite the run heavy outfit on paper. The upside appears to be limited for Bickerman.
13) Kairo Knight -
Cape Town put two receivers in the top 6 of fantasy in S45. So what do they do entering S46? Replace the QB who made it happen with a low TPE, scrambling archetype rookie. It seems incredibly unlikely that the Crash will continue to throw the ball with the volume and efficiency they did last season, which is going to hurt Knight's bottom line. However, Knight is still the highest TPE wideout in the league right now (by a comfortable margin) and Cape Town's offense should still be pretty strong. Knight should still be decent, just don't expect a repeat performance.
14) Oliver Tolliver -
As mentioned above, Orange County had the volume last season but just couldn't get the efficiency down. Tolliver is set to be one of 5 skill position players over 1k TPE in the Otters' offense going into S46, so hopefully those woes of last season stay in last season. He'll still have to contend with being the WR2, but hopefully there's enough scoring to go around in what should be one of the league's premier offenses.
15) Nick Williams -
Yes, the breakout star tight end of last season has gone to the dark side (never mind that him playing wide receiver is what led to the breakout in the first place). Williams is now officially a wide receiver instead of a tight end, and he's likely to retain his role as the WR2 behind Emile Charles. Problem is that WR2 numbers are much less valuable for wide receivers than tight ends, and the entire Berlin offense looks like it's heading in the wrong direction thanks to regression. Williams should have decent volume, but that might be all he has going for him.
16) NCADV RAINN -
Tight end Mister Hogmally may be hitting regression hard, but that doesn't mean he's out for the count. RAINN is likely to continue to see competition for the role of second target behind National Treasure in the Yeti pass attack. If the Yeeti are revived to their former glory, RAINN has some serious upside. If Colorado continues down the path they've been on the last two seasons, RAINN isn't likely to be fantasy relevant.
17) Sam Mercury -
After leaving Baltimore in free agency for Sarasota, Mercury has a bright future ahead of him as the presumptive heir to Johnny Blaze Jr's throne. Unfortunately, that future doesn't start quite yet. Mercury still trails Blaze in TPE for now, which means Blaze is more likely to continue operating as the Sailfish WR1. Also worth mentioning that Thomas Robinson is still hanging around. Mercury will have his day, just don't expect it to be this season.
18) Rocky Moreaux -
The longtime fantasy mainstay has finally entered the twilight of his illustrious career. The entire Baltimore offense has taken a beating from regression, but few are feeling it worse than Moreaux. His quarterback is a shell of his former self, and now Moreaux has been passed up by his younger counterpart. Perhaps Baltimore could surprise us with continued high volume, but I think it's more realistic to expect that Moreaux's days of fantasy dominance are behind him.
Tight Ends
1) Detective Crashmore -
Among tight ends in S45, Crashmore finished 2nd in targets, 2nd in catches, 3rd in yards, tied for 2nd in touchdowns, and first in pancakes. Crashmore has gained TPE, his QB has gained TPE, and his greatest competition for the TE1 crown has either swapped to wide receiver or regressed substantially. We're not quite talking peak Mister Hogmally here, but the advantage Crashmore gives you over the rest of the tight end fantasy landscape is worthy of a very early pick.
2) Kenny Szymborski -
I was high on Szymborski last season and got burned because San Jose went much more run heavy than I was expecting. Could that happen again? Maybe. But on paper, the Sabercats appear poised to drastically increase their pass attempts. Keanu Calhoun is the clear top target, but Szymborski currently stands noticeably above San Jose's WR2 and WR3 in TPE. There may very well be a role for him to carve out here.
3) Mister Hogmally -
Hogmally's best days are certainly behind him at this point as regression has relegated him to potentially being the third target in the Yeti pass attack. Still, Hogmally will almost certainly be involved, and I expect Colorado to figure out this offense sooner or later. They have too much TPE overall not to.
4) Bread Bowl -
On any other team, Bowl would be an absolutely elite fantasy tight end. Sadly, on Orange County he's somewhat lost in the shuffle. Despite being on pace to eclipse 1k TPE this season, Bowl is unlikely to be any higher than the third target in the Otters' passing game. He's still an excellent tight end and this should still be an excellent offense, but sim history has shown us that when everyone on an offense is great it's the tight end who suffers.
5) Penger Tolliver -
Here's where things start to get really bleak. Tolliver is a low TPE tight end on what figures to be a run heavy offense. There won't be much volume, nor much efficiency. Yet here we are. This is your ISFL tight end fantasy landscape. There's a reason dynasty is swapping the tight end slot to a TE/WR flex slot, and if the current league trends continue redraft may have to follow suit.
6) Bong Stevens -
And it gets worse. Stevens is an IA tight end who Baltimore literally picked up off the street to fill in for the retired Ceti Pyxis. He, uh... exists? Good enough for TE6 in fantasy.
7) La'Fluke Paris Johnson -
Ya know, on any other team Johnson would be the TE5 at minimum. Instead, Colorado has a backup tight end in a league where literally half the teams don't have any.
8) Anthony Simmons II -
I only have this here because I have a policy of going to 8 players for positions that have only 1 starting slot. That being said, Yellowknife signed Simmons to be a fullback exclusively. He'll get some pancakes, maybe a couple carries or catches. There are only 8 tight ends currently signed in the league, and if Simmons finishes any higher than 8th I will be supremely disappointed in my fellow GMs for tight end abuse.
Offensive Linemen
1) Fortified Fridge -
With the trade of Bengal Tigerheart to the Otters, there is now a vacuum at the top of the offensive line rankings. My bet is that Fridge takes up the mantle. A high TPE, mauler archetype lineman on a team that figures to open up the passing game a bit, Fridge has some serious upside beyond simply being the next best thing.
2) Remi Musgrave-Smythe -
The Hahalua are starting to enter their decline, but there's still some life in them. RMS is set to once again anchor the left end of the line for Honolulu, a position that netted them an OL4 overall finish last season. I have some concerns that the Hahalua are shifting to being a more run heavy outfit, but being a high TPE mauler gives some leeway.
3) Walrus Jones -
Despite the arrival of Bengal Tigerheart in Orange County, Jones is expected to retain the all important left tackle spot. The Otters also figure to continue to throw the ball quite a bit, also important for fantasy offensive line numbers. However, Jones does have an important weakness in that he's an athletic archetype lineman. This doesn't mean Jones will be bad for the Otters, but it does mean his relative lack of size and strength will probably limit the number of pancakes he can record.
4) Tunkha Danstrol -
The next man up for the Hawks, Danstrol is likely to be a significant step down from Tigerheart. However, he's also a mauler and Baltimore should still throw at a fair clip (even if it's not to the standards of the last few seasons) so Danstrol should be fantasy relevant.
5) Triceracop -
With their TPE quickly growing, Triceracop appears poised to take over at left tackle for the Butchers. I'm not sure just how much Chicago will throw the ball, which means there is a pretty wide range of outcomes for the up and coming Cretaceous terror. Certainly worth the risk if you miss out on the top options.
6) Bruce Talis -
Between his own growth and the regression of teammate Owen Farrell, Talis appears poised to take over at left tackle for a San Jose offense that's ready to take flight. The two big caveats here are that the Sabercats could go back to being a more run heavy outfit like last season and that Talis himself is an athletic archetype lineman.
7) Kelijah Verwae -
Another member of the NOLA renaissance, Verwae is a little low on the TPE scale for what you'd like to see at left tackle. However, if the Second Line continue to throw at the clip they did last season, then Verwae's mauler archetype should serve them well, potentially breaking into the upper echelon of fantasy linemen.
8) Brandon Mason -
Mason is an athletic archetype lineman on what should be a run heavy team, so the upside here is limited. However, as long as Mason remains at left tackle there's potential for a solid season in what should be a solid offense. One thing to be aware of is that regression has now run Mason down to being lower TPE than teammate Great Khali. Austin may keep Mason at left tackle due to the advantage experience provides (especially on the offensive line), but if it turns out Khali is lining up at LT for the Copperheads then you'll want to move off Mason quickly.
Kickers
Just like in NFL fantasy, kickers don't have much control over their fantasy production. Sure, a good kicker will make better use of their opportunities than a bad kicker, but the actual opportunities they get are entirely dependent on the team around them. As such, my kicker rankings are more based on how good I think a given offense will be. I'll still put bad kickers at the bottom, but as long as a kicker has a decent TPE total then the TPE acts as more of a tiebreaker than the basis of my ranking.
1) Wing Wang -
2) Ray Baker -
3) Eliot Bukowski -
4) Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison -
5) Swantavius King -
6) Bob Kickerson -
7) Booter McGavin -
8) Zenzeroni Xystarch II -
Defensive Linemen
1) Sir Tywrell Xah'Aawrone -
With Bruce White no longer playing out of position as a linebacker, we're back to our regularly scheduled programming. Xah'Aawrone is a high TPE defensive tackle in a 3-4 defense with minimal competition up front. He should be a wrecking ball for Arizona after already finishing as the DL4 last season.
2) MC Hammer -
Hammer finds himself in a very similar situation as Xah'Aawrone, only with marginally better surrounding talent to compete for stats. Still, Hammer should be a solid option.
3) Dub Redd -
New York linebackers Teemo Swift and Bay Webb both had remarkable seasons in S45 with each finishing among the top 10 fantasy scorers. However, regression was not kind to either. Dub Redd has some serious competition on the defensive line in the form of Lionel Scrimmage, but with the pair of linebackers clearly entering the twilight of their careers the door should be open for Dub Redd's breakout.
4) Bruce White -
Just because White isn't going to play linebacker again doesn't mean he's going to be useless for fantasy. The former defensive end put on a few pounds and switched to defensive tackle, but NOLA figures to run a 3-4 scheme. Without too much in the way of competition for production, White should still be a wrecking ball for New Orleans. Just pull back the expectations after last season.
5) Mo Gago -
Gago is still an excellent defensive tackle, but the talent around him is starting to catch up. The Wraiths front seven is on the verge of looking formidable, which means Gago's days of having his opponents' backfield all to himself are likely over.
6) Clint Mustache -
GOAT TANNK blew up the fantasy scoreboard and then blew out of town, leaving Mustache as the next man up. Defensive ends don't traditionally perform great in 3-4 systems (trust me, I would know), but TANNK did fine in this exact spot last season. There still isn't much competition in the Fire Salamanders' front seven, so maybe Mustache can recreate that magic.
7) Carly Rae Jensen -
Jensen has a lock on defensive line production in Austin, but the Copperheads boast one of the deepest linebacker corps in the league. Jensen won't be bad, but competing with linebackers is usually not a winning formula for linemen.
8) Jason Steele -
Steele finds himself in a very similar situation as Jensen, only with less TPE. He's still the clear leader of Cape Town's defensive line, but when he's competing with Rolud Onyxgut and the newly converted Justin Willis, that doesn't leave much for Steele to mop up.
Linebackers
1) Sherwin Blue Jr -
Yes, I had Sir Tywrell Xah'Aarone as the DL1. Yes, it's because there isn't much competition for racking up stats among Arizona's front seven. Yes, Blue is my LB1 for the same reason. No, it's not a contradiction. The Outlaws really only have Xah'Aarone and Blue as notable pieces in their front seven, with the next best player being the corpse of Akaki Akayre. While it's technically true that either one would be better off if the other didn't exist, the fact that these two are so distantly far ahead of everyone else in Arizona's front seven means they can coexist as dominant IDP forces.
2) Sim Sunigh -
Sunigh has some serious competition among his fellow linebackers for stats, but at least he doesn't have to worry about his defensive line stealing production. As long as they're eating up blocks and not breaking through them, Sunigh should go to work.
3) Rolud Onyxgut -
I was a bit disappointed in Onyxgut's performance last season at LB10. It certainly wasn't bad as he finished less than 30 points out of 2nd, but I was hoping for a bit more. For better or worse, I'm coming back to the same well this season. Cape Town's defensive line is somewhat coming up and the swap of Justin Willis from OL to LB is going to limit Onyxgut a bit, but Onyxgut is still the crown jewel of Cape Town's front seven. He should be fine.
4) Max Honestly -
Sarasota may not boast any studs among their front seven aside from Honestly, but they're far from weak. Almost everyone else is between 600 and 900 TPE, which is certainly solid in the world of ISFL. Honestly should shine, but collectively there may be enough surrounding talent to limit his upside.
5) Waylen Greene -
Colorado may not have much in the way of defensive line, but their linebacker corps is one of the best in the league top to bottom. What that means is that Greene is going to have serious competition for stats, but he should be good enough in his own right to still be productive.
6) Cruella de Ville -
The defending MVP has her work cut out for her going into S46. De Ville has now been passed up in TPE by fellow linebacker DJ Maclean and still has to contend with star defensive end Alex Armstrong. Her saving grace is a contract stipulation that she must be ROLB in all formations, which traditionally produces slightly better numbers. I have my doubts of a repeat performance, but she should still be solid.
7) John Stark VIII -
The other half of the Otters LB tandem, Stark is also a star linebacker in his own right. I suspect the slightly more veteran Sunigh will outperform Stark, but both should be relevant to the fantasy conversation.
8) Mario Moloka'i -
To Moloka'i's credit, he does hold a noticeable (if not particularly large) TPE lead among the Austin linebackers. The problem here is that the Copperheads have one of the better linebacker corps in the league, and they still have stud defensive tackle Carly Rae Jensen on the defensive line. That's a lot of competition for production, and will likely limit Moloka'i's upside.
Defensive Backs
1) Fronky Fresh -
Sarasota's continued offensive excellence will always put opponents in a position to throw in order to keep up, and their relative weakness in their secondary (at least compared to their front seven) will ensure opponents stay pass heavy. All the better for the maxed out Fresh to feast on.
2) Billy Jor-El -
Honolulu's offense may not be what it was a couple seasons ago, but they should still be good. And while the Hahalua certainly have a formidable secondary, their front seven is arguably tougher. So why Jor-El over incumbent star Luigi Lanikai? Well, a little birdy told me that Jor-El would be playing the CB1 role this season over Lanikai. CB1 means covering the WR1, which means more targets coming their way, which means more stats.
3) Ezra Azazel -
NOLA's secondary is, quite frankly, pitiful outside of Azazel. It should be an easy target for opponents, which just means Azazel will have extra chances to make use of their maxed out build.
4) Jamdrian LeBayers -
I'm not sure why the Otters' offense struggled last season, but they simply have too much talent to struggle again. A strong offense will put pressure on opponents and force them to throw more, which plays right into the hands (hopefully literally) of their stud CB1.
5) The Riddler -
Riddler is a bit low on TPE compared to most of his fantasy counterparts, but his situation here is everything. New York figures to be a strong offense, and their secondary is noticeably weaker than their front seven. Riddler's lower TPE will probably limit his upside, but his situation should keep his floor high.
6) Benjamin Duvernay -
Duvernay falls at the other end of the spectrum. Arizona's secondary is clearly the strength of their defense, which means opponents will likely prefer trying to run it on the Outlaws instead of passing. However, Arizona's offense still looks potent as ever. Opponents may not have a choice.
7) Kadarius Claypool II -
The bottom line here is that Yellowknife's offense isn't exactly striking fear into anyone. Where Claypool has upside, though, is that the Wraiths' secondary is notably weaker than their front seven, highlighted by Yellowknife having the worst passing defense in the league last season. Where there's volume, there's potential for stats.
8) Jake Williams -
Baltimore's secondary is far stronger than their front seven and their offense is likely taking a noticeable step back. However, that doesn't mean the offense will be stuck in the mud, and Williams is still a very high TPE corner. He'll have his chances.
Anyway, at least the SFWG rankings came out kinda sorta on time, so hopefully you all have been able to use that. Now it's time for my annual half-baked deep dive into why I ranked everyone the way I did, so buckle up and let's dive in (and ignore any typos as a result of having no time to proofread)!
Quarterbacks
1) Wolfie McDummy Jr -
Despite winning the NSFC last season, Colorado's offense was shockingly abysmal. 3rd worst offense in the league abysmal. McDummy was not exempt, finishing the season as the QB11 in fantasy. What's worse, this is looking like it's becoming something of a trend for the Yeti QB as McDummy's pass attempts have fallen precipitously over the last couple of seasons. So why the QB1 projection? Schemes change fast in the ISFL, and it's impossible to not like the Colorado passing game on paper, history be damned (well, recent history anyway). McDummy is currently in a three-way race to be the highest TPE QB in the league, he's got at least a respectable receiving corps, and the Colorado running game looks more like a walking game. I've been burned each of the last two seasons by the Yeti offense falling flat, but maybe it'll actually work this time. Long live the Yeeti!
2) Willier Miller -
Another season, another elite fantasy QB performance out of Sarasota. There must be something in those Caribbean waters. The S46 edition of the Sailfish offense doesn't boast quite the same level of receiving talent as we've become accustomed to, but that doesn't mean it's bad. Honestly the bigger concern is that running back Ace Anderson might start commanding more of a workload.
3) Lloyd Bannings -
Bannings had shockingly high volume last season, but couldn't quite convert it into fantasy points. If the volume persists, though, there's some very real upside here in the Orange County offense. Bannings himself is over 1k TPE, the Otters' running back is over 1k TPE, and they now have two receivers over 1k TPE (and very nearly a 1k TPE tight end to boot). By all rights this should be a high flying offense, which means plenty of touchdowns to go around.
4) Josh Patterson -
Between the swapping of running back Lord Farquaads to offensive line and Patterson's own growth, I sense a shift in San Jose's offensive scheme coming. The Sabercats' running back platoon is a little on the young side to be particularly effective, so on the surface it looks like this offense is going to live and die by the Patterson - Calhoun connection. I don't necessarily expect Patterson to be wildly efficient, but I do expect him to jump from his 12th place finish in pass attempts in S45 to potentially being top 3 in S46. Volume is king, and more chances provides more potential upside.
5) Donovan Winters III -
It's been an established rule for a while now to avoid Arizona's passing game since they've been in quite the "ride or die" mindset with stalwart running back Danny Nedelko. That era might finally be ending. Nedelko is finally succumbing to father time and the Outlaws brought in some serious competition for playing time for good measure. Meanwhile, Winters is one of three QBs competing for the honor of top TPE QB in the league and he's got quite an assortment of weapons at his disposal. There is still some risk that Arizona will continue to lean on their running game, which is why Winters is as low as he is for me. There's some upside here, though, for those willing to gamble on a scheme shift in the desert.
6) Octavion Speedings -
Don't look now, but the Second Line look like they may finally have gotten the band back together. Speedings showed out in S45 with both respectable volume and respectable efficiency. Neither metric were eye-popping, but combined it resulted in a QB7 fantasy finish. With another year of growth for both Speedings and all his weapons, the NOLA QB could make a serious impact on the fantasy landscape.
7) Thor Bollrsveifla -
No, I'm not going to figure out how to type that properly with accents on my keyboard. What I am going to do, though, is celebrate the return of the scrambling QB! That's right, Bollrsveifla is a scrambling archetype QB, which is just as much a cheat code for ISFL fantasy as it is for NFL fantasy. What's more, Cape Town's offense is loaded with weapons, including the league's best running back and best receiving tandem. So why do I have Thor ranked this low? He's coming into the league at about 750 TPE. That's not good for a QB. Still, running QB go brrr. He's got as safe a floor as anyone in the top 6, and could easily fly to a QB1 finish with a bit of touchdown luck.
8) Painted Penguin -
Now we're getting to the weird section of ISFL projections. Penguin is coming off a rough fantasy season, understandably given Chicago's commitment to giving league legend Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin one last hurrah as a workhorse back. We all lose our battle with regression in the end, though, and JHM is no exception. Penguin doesn't exactly have a murderer's row of receiving weapons, but there is certainly a better concentration of talent in the Butchers' passing game than running game at this point. I expect a significant bump in pass attempts for Chicago, which means a major improvement in fantasy output for Penguin.
Running Backs
1) Frank Dux -
Dux was already the fantasy RB3 last season, and at a glance it looks like his role in this offense is only going to continue to grow. The longtime receiving tandem of McHollywood and Mara are fading quickly due to regression, leaving only Dux and wideout Sean Robinson as the premier weapons in the Silverbacks' offense. Dux is likely looking at another season of a workhorse rushing load and could very well find himself earning a few more targets on top.
2) Nakiri Ayame -
Ayame's bread and butter last season was as a receiver out of the backfield, a role good enough to earn them the RB1 overall fantasy finish. However, there is some serious concern that Ayame won't see nearly as many targets going into S46. Sure, those targets should be replaced by more carries (whatever QB Thor Bollrsveifla doesn't keep for himself, at least), but carries simply don't produce as much fantasy upside. The volume will still be there, just maybe not the right kind to repeat Ayame's dominant S45 performance.
3) Money Tolliver -
Speaking of volume, the Wraiths may not boast quite as much of a powerhouse offense but Tolliver is the engine behind whatever it does accomplish. He already led all running backs in total offense last season, and now he no longer has to worry about the corpse of former backfield mate Adebayo Akinfenwa vulturing his touchdowns (8 TDs on 59 carries). Yellowknife's offense is at serious risk of being anemic given the lack of weapons in the receiving game, but there's a strong likelihood that Tolliver will dominate whatever touchdowns the Wraiths do score.
4) Howard Coward -
Coward was already the RB6 last season, and with backfield mate Jeff Newman really feeling regression (along with pretty much all of Austin's receiving weapons) the door is wide open for Coward to improve on those numbers going into S46. The main risk for Coward is that the old offense will lose a step and lower the tide for all ships, but, much like Tolliver, Coward's guaranteed share should more than make up for any high level step back in the Copperheads' production.
5) Kyle Crane -
S45 was admittedly rough on Crane as the New Orleans running back was both inefficient and given little volume to work with. The volume thing could very well still be an issue going into next season, but Crane should benefit from a rising tide raising all ships (metaphorically, of course - I get the feeling that New Orleans would prefer to not have high tides). The Second Line offense is really starting to come into its own, and a few more catches or touchdowns would go a long way for Crane.
6) Reginald Shrubbery -
It's easy to get lost in the plethora of weapons the Otters have at their disposal, but Shrubbery enters S46 as the clear cut workhorse back for what should be a juggernaut offense. He should be a safe pick with a high floor, and maybe some RB1 overall upside if the Otters lean a bit more into their running game.
7) Stetson David -
The bad news for David is that Honolulu's offense appears to be on the downswing as their Ultimus window starts to close. The good news is that David is set to take over a much larger portion of the backfield work with longtime Hahalua star Bean Delphine Jr regressing into one final season. There might be fewer TDs to go around, but David's increasing share of the pie should keep him afloat.
8) Ace Anderson -
Normally I'd say a clear cut workhorse running back whose TPE exceeds every receiving weapon on their team would be an easy RB1, but let's be honest. This is Sarasota we're talking about. They don't run the ball in Florida. Still, Anderson's status as a workhorse gives him a solid floor, and the fact Sarasota's cupboard is a little bare of receiving weapons could lead to more receiving work for Anderson.
9) Anakin Skywalker -
In general I'm pretty low on the Baltimore offense heading into S46. The entire passing game is regressing into the dirt and Skywalker himself is hardly outstanding. However, with the departure of Bertie Mannering-Phipps, Skywalker now has a stranglehold on the Baltimore backfield. A workhorse role is a workhorse role, and perhaps the Hawks still have just enough life in them to keep Skywalker relevant in the fantasy conversation.
10) Danny Nedelko -
Yes, this is a massive drop for the perennial fantasy stalwart. Yes, I might very well be eating crow on this if Arizona defies my expectations once again (looking at you, Sherwin Blue). At the end of the day, though, what I'm seeing on paper simply doesn't point to another season of Nedelko dominance. Nedelko's regression lines up perfectly with the ascension of the Outlaws' passing game, and the arrival of Bertie Manning-Phipps leads me to believe a committee backfield might be in store for us. Arizona's offense should still be good and I certainly don't expect Nedelko to suddenly be untouchable, but if there was ever a time for a change this looks like it.
11) Jarvis Harbinger-Marjin -
It doesn't matter how feared and powerful you are, regression comes for us all. That even includes JHM. The perennial fantasy all star enters S46 a shell of his former self, and now appears to be slightly overshadowed by Chicago's passing game. There's even a very real concern that backup running back Jake Jefferson may seriously start cutting into JHM's workload, given the minimal TPE difference now. However, that doesn't mean JHM is dead yet. There's potential for one more respectable fantasy season.
12) Jeff Newman -
It wasn't exactly a surprise to see backfield mate Howard Coward take on the lead role in Austin's backfield last season, but the degree to which Newman was shoved aside certainly was. It's unlikely Newman will recapture much of the rushing work as regression leeches away his TPE, but there is a path to relevance as a receiver. Austin currently only has two wide receivers on the roster, and Newman has a higher TPE than both of them.
13) Armor Queen -
Armor Queen is on her last legs, quite literally as she announced her retirement post-Ultimus. Queen had a surprisingly productive fantasy season in S45 thanks to hoarding touchdowns and dominating receiving work for Berlin. I doubt that role will continue into S46, though. For one, while Queen still holds a solid TPE lead in the Fire Salamander backfield, she dropped a considerable amount of TPE from regression. For two, Berlin QB Adrian St. Christmas was brought back despite also getting beaten down by regression. The Berlin offense is likely to take a sizable step back, and Queen with it.
14) Kit Fisto -
With the swap of former lead back Lord Farquaads to offensive line, the road is paved for rookie Kit Fisto to take over a lackluster backfield. Only...Fisto isn't exactly dynamic either this early in his career. San Jose's fortunes are more likely to rest on the Patterson - Calhoun air connection, and whatever is left over will probably be split between Fisto and current backfield mate Maple Dogwood. The upside here is limited.
15) Swamp Maiden -
Even if the Yeti fix their offensive woes, it's more likely to be through the air than on the ground. The one thing Maiden had going for her was that she was Colorado's lead back, and even that isn't a sure thing anymore with the rise of Hercules Henry hot on her tail. Maiden will for sure get something, but probably not much.
16) Bertie Mannering-Phipps -
The Arizona backfield will go only one of two ways this season. Option one (and the option I'm personally betting on) is that the Outlaws are about to see a massive shift in offensive philosophy, from being a run first offense featuring Danny Nedelko to being a balanced - or even pass focused - offense that operates with a committee backfield. Option two is that the Outlaws continue to defy my expectations and feature Nedelko in a push to boost his Hall of Fame credentials. Either way, BMP doesn't have much upside here.
17) Maple Dogwood -
The other half of the San Jose backfield. Dogwood currently has a small TPE advantage over Fisto, but that advantage isn't going to last much longer at this rate. And again, the Sabercats figure to be rather pass happy, if TPE is anything to go by. There is also the risk that Dogwood simply acts as a fullback for future Hall of Fame hopeful Fisto. There are a lot of potential pitfalls here for Dogwood and not a lot of upside.
18) Kumquat Archipelago -
Archipelago has one foot in the grave at this point. He won't get much work in the backfield (backfield mate Ace Anderson eclipses Archipelago in TPE twice over), but his saving grace could be that this group of receivers is among the weakest Sarasota has had in a while, and there is no tight end on the roster at all. He'll find a receiving role somewhere, just don't expect much out of it.
Wide Receivers
1) National Treasure -
I am ready to be hurt again. If I'm predicting a major bounceback season for Wolfie McDummy Jr, then I better predict a big season for his clear cut WR1. Also important, tight end Mister Hogmally is regressing hard, clearing the way for Treasure to step up in a big way. It's a big risk given Colorado's recent history, but hey, no risk it no biscuit.
2) Johnny Blaze Jr -
Blaze might be getting a bit long in the tooth, but this is still Sarasota and he's still the WR1. He'll get his volume, same as always. Maybe his upside is a little limited compared to seasons past, but that floor is rock solid.
3) Keanu Calhoun -
I worry a little bit since the Patterson - Calhoun connection is still a little on the young side, but both are now sitting right around 1k TPE. That should be good enough to establish the pair as one of the better duos in the league, which should be featured given the relative strength of San Jose's passing game. If nothing else we know Calhoun will be a target hog.
4) Hank Mardukas -
You may not have realized it, but Mardukas is coming off a WR4 overall finish. It's hard to say if the Second Line will throw quite as much as they did last season, but the entire offense is looking to be on quite the upswing. Even if the volume drops a bit, the efficiency should carry a strong fantasy performance.
5) Big McLarge Huge -
As noted in the Lloyd Bannings blurb above, the Otters actually threw the third most pass attempts last season. It just didn't translate to fantasy success. With so many pieces of this offense above 1k TPE now, it's hard to believe that kind of bad luck will continue. Huge's biggest concern might very well be that there are too many mouths to feed. Even if the offense spreads the love a bit, there should be enough production to give Huge some huge upside.
6) Benji Aguilera -
Once again, if I'm betting on a shift in Arizona's offensive philosophy I better go all in. QB Donovan Winters III is one of the best QBs in the ISFL right now, and Aguilera is his clear top weapon. All the Outlaws need to do is open up the offense a bit and Aguilera will shine.
7) Emile Charles -
Berlin as a whole is really hurting from regression, including their QB who is currently bottom of the league in TPE. So why have Charles this high? Simple. Volume is king. Berlin led the league in pass attempts last season, and with their defense and running game getting hammered by regression there's little reason to suspect that will change much. Upside will be limited by what will almost certainly be an inefficient offense, but as long as Charles is getting 150+ targets the floor will be steady as they come.
8) Shane Turnbull -
The presumptive new WR1 in Baltimore finds himself in a very similar situation as Charles. The Hawks are facing severe regression across the board, with the added bonus of also having a pretty solid up and coming running back to shoulder some of the load. I think the Hawks will boast a better offense overall than the Fire Salamanders, but I suspect the passing volume will drop a bit from what we've become used to in Baltimore.
9) Sean Robinson -
As the power tandem of Mandrews McHollywood and Matthew Mara fade into the sunset, the door is open for Robinson to step up into a true alpha receiver role. There's some serious upside here, too. It's easy to overlook due to the sheer dominance of running back Frank Dux in the red zone, but New York finished last season with the 5th most pass attempts. If they can simply convert some of those rushing touchdowns into receiving touchdowns, Robinson could very well be in the running for WR1 overall. The two major caveats here are 1) Frank Dux is still around, and 2) last season was quite the anomaly for the Silverbacks run-pass balance. Robinson's potential range of outcomes is quite large as a result, but this could make him the perfect gamble for those interested in taking chances.
10) Florida Man -
The Hahalua offense isn't what it was just a few seasons ago, but that doesn't mean they're down for the count yet. Florida Man finds himself sitting atop the Honolulu receiving depth chart, which is potentially quite the lucrative position for a team still clinging to its Ultimus window. The big concern here is that Honolulu might lean more into its running game as QB Nova Montagne enters the twilight of her career.
11) Sem'ga Nah'sim -
The Butchers are a bit of an enigma entering S46. Their passing game appears to be their strength on offense, but they retained JHM. Nah'sim appeared poised to be the clear WR1, then Chicago traded for Jay Money. I'd still say Nah'sim should be the Butchers' WR1, but there is a wide range of potential outcomes here and maybe not enough upside to justify an early pick.
12) Delores Bickerman -
The Copperheads snuck in their Ultimus win at the right time because their receiving corps isn't going to last much longer. Bickerman is still clinging to the WR1 role in Austin, which could potentially continue to be lucrative if QB Jay Cue III continues to play like he did last season. However, this appears to be quite the run heavy outfit on paper. The upside appears to be limited for Bickerman.
13) Kairo Knight -
Cape Town put two receivers in the top 6 of fantasy in S45. So what do they do entering S46? Replace the QB who made it happen with a low TPE, scrambling archetype rookie. It seems incredibly unlikely that the Crash will continue to throw the ball with the volume and efficiency they did last season, which is going to hurt Knight's bottom line. However, Knight is still the highest TPE wideout in the league right now (by a comfortable margin) and Cape Town's offense should still be pretty strong. Knight should still be decent, just don't expect a repeat performance.
14) Oliver Tolliver -
As mentioned above, Orange County had the volume last season but just couldn't get the efficiency down. Tolliver is set to be one of 5 skill position players over 1k TPE in the Otters' offense going into S46, so hopefully those woes of last season stay in last season. He'll still have to contend with being the WR2, but hopefully there's enough scoring to go around in what should be one of the league's premier offenses.
15) Nick Williams -
Yes, the breakout star tight end of last season has gone to the dark side (never mind that him playing wide receiver is what led to the breakout in the first place). Williams is now officially a wide receiver instead of a tight end, and he's likely to retain his role as the WR2 behind Emile Charles. Problem is that WR2 numbers are much less valuable for wide receivers than tight ends, and the entire Berlin offense looks like it's heading in the wrong direction thanks to regression. Williams should have decent volume, but that might be all he has going for him.
16) NCADV RAINN -
Tight end Mister Hogmally may be hitting regression hard, but that doesn't mean he's out for the count. RAINN is likely to continue to see competition for the role of second target behind National Treasure in the Yeti pass attack. If the Yeeti are revived to their former glory, RAINN has some serious upside. If Colorado continues down the path they've been on the last two seasons, RAINN isn't likely to be fantasy relevant.
17) Sam Mercury -
After leaving Baltimore in free agency for Sarasota, Mercury has a bright future ahead of him as the presumptive heir to Johnny Blaze Jr's throne. Unfortunately, that future doesn't start quite yet. Mercury still trails Blaze in TPE for now, which means Blaze is more likely to continue operating as the Sailfish WR1. Also worth mentioning that Thomas Robinson is still hanging around. Mercury will have his day, just don't expect it to be this season.
18) Rocky Moreaux -
The longtime fantasy mainstay has finally entered the twilight of his illustrious career. The entire Baltimore offense has taken a beating from regression, but few are feeling it worse than Moreaux. His quarterback is a shell of his former self, and now Moreaux has been passed up by his younger counterpart. Perhaps Baltimore could surprise us with continued high volume, but I think it's more realistic to expect that Moreaux's days of fantasy dominance are behind him.
Tight Ends
1) Detective Crashmore -
Among tight ends in S45, Crashmore finished 2nd in targets, 2nd in catches, 3rd in yards, tied for 2nd in touchdowns, and first in pancakes. Crashmore has gained TPE, his QB has gained TPE, and his greatest competition for the TE1 crown has either swapped to wide receiver or regressed substantially. We're not quite talking peak Mister Hogmally here, but the advantage Crashmore gives you over the rest of the tight end fantasy landscape is worthy of a very early pick.
2) Kenny Szymborski -
I was high on Szymborski last season and got burned because San Jose went much more run heavy than I was expecting. Could that happen again? Maybe. But on paper, the Sabercats appear poised to drastically increase their pass attempts. Keanu Calhoun is the clear top target, but Szymborski currently stands noticeably above San Jose's WR2 and WR3 in TPE. There may very well be a role for him to carve out here.
3) Mister Hogmally -
Hogmally's best days are certainly behind him at this point as regression has relegated him to potentially being the third target in the Yeti pass attack. Still, Hogmally will almost certainly be involved, and I expect Colorado to figure out this offense sooner or later. They have too much TPE overall not to.
4) Bread Bowl -
On any other team, Bowl would be an absolutely elite fantasy tight end. Sadly, on Orange County he's somewhat lost in the shuffle. Despite being on pace to eclipse 1k TPE this season, Bowl is unlikely to be any higher than the third target in the Otters' passing game. He's still an excellent tight end and this should still be an excellent offense, but sim history has shown us that when everyone on an offense is great it's the tight end who suffers.
5) Penger Tolliver -
Here's where things start to get really bleak. Tolliver is a low TPE tight end on what figures to be a run heavy offense. There won't be much volume, nor much efficiency. Yet here we are. This is your ISFL tight end fantasy landscape. There's a reason dynasty is swapping the tight end slot to a TE/WR flex slot, and if the current league trends continue redraft may have to follow suit.
6) Bong Stevens -
And it gets worse. Stevens is an IA tight end who Baltimore literally picked up off the street to fill in for the retired Ceti Pyxis. He, uh... exists? Good enough for TE6 in fantasy.
7) La'Fluke Paris Johnson -
Ya know, on any other team Johnson would be the TE5 at minimum. Instead, Colorado has a backup tight end in a league where literally half the teams don't have any.
8) Anthony Simmons II -
I only have this here because I have a policy of going to 8 players for positions that have only 1 starting slot. That being said, Yellowknife signed Simmons to be a fullback exclusively. He'll get some pancakes, maybe a couple carries or catches. There are only 8 tight ends currently signed in the league, and if Simmons finishes any higher than 8th I will be supremely disappointed in my fellow GMs for tight end abuse.
Offensive Linemen
1) Fortified Fridge -
With the trade of Bengal Tigerheart to the Otters, there is now a vacuum at the top of the offensive line rankings. My bet is that Fridge takes up the mantle. A high TPE, mauler archetype lineman on a team that figures to open up the passing game a bit, Fridge has some serious upside beyond simply being the next best thing.
2) Remi Musgrave-Smythe -
The Hahalua are starting to enter their decline, but there's still some life in them. RMS is set to once again anchor the left end of the line for Honolulu, a position that netted them an OL4 overall finish last season. I have some concerns that the Hahalua are shifting to being a more run heavy outfit, but being a high TPE mauler gives some leeway.
3) Walrus Jones -
Despite the arrival of Bengal Tigerheart in Orange County, Jones is expected to retain the all important left tackle spot. The Otters also figure to continue to throw the ball quite a bit, also important for fantasy offensive line numbers. However, Jones does have an important weakness in that he's an athletic archetype lineman. This doesn't mean Jones will be bad for the Otters, but it does mean his relative lack of size and strength will probably limit the number of pancakes he can record.
4) Tunkha Danstrol -
The next man up for the Hawks, Danstrol is likely to be a significant step down from Tigerheart. However, he's also a mauler and Baltimore should still throw at a fair clip (even if it's not to the standards of the last few seasons) so Danstrol should be fantasy relevant.
5) Triceracop -
With their TPE quickly growing, Triceracop appears poised to take over at left tackle for the Butchers. I'm not sure just how much Chicago will throw the ball, which means there is a pretty wide range of outcomes for the up and coming Cretaceous terror. Certainly worth the risk if you miss out on the top options.
6) Bruce Talis -
Between his own growth and the regression of teammate Owen Farrell, Talis appears poised to take over at left tackle for a San Jose offense that's ready to take flight. The two big caveats here are that the Sabercats could go back to being a more run heavy outfit like last season and that Talis himself is an athletic archetype lineman.
7) Kelijah Verwae -
Another member of the NOLA renaissance, Verwae is a little low on the TPE scale for what you'd like to see at left tackle. However, if the Second Line continue to throw at the clip they did last season, then Verwae's mauler archetype should serve them well, potentially breaking into the upper echelon of fantasy linemen.
8) Brandon Mason -
Mason is an athletic archetype lineman on what should be a run heavy team, so the upside here is limited. However, as long as Mason remains at left tackle there's potential for a solid season in what should be a solid offense. One thing to be aware of is that regression has now run Mason down to being lower TPE than teammate Great Khali. Austin may keep Mason at left tackle due to the advantage experience provides (especially on the offensive line), but if it turns out Khali is lining up at LT for the Copperheads then you'll want to move off Mason quickly.
Kickers
Just like in NFL fantasy, kickers don't have much control over their fantasy production. Sure, a good kicker will make better use of their opportunities than a bad kicker, but the actual opportunities they get are entirely dependent on the team around them. As such, my kicker rankings are more based on how good I think a given offense will be. I'll still put bad kickers at the bottom, but as long as a kicker has a decent TPE total then the TPE acts as more of a tiebreaker than the basis of my ranking.
1) Wing Wang -
2) Ray Baker -
3) Eliot Bukowski -
4) Jayme Jayne Jay-Jaymison -
5) Swantavius King -
6) Bob Kickerson -
7) Booter McGavin -
8) Zenzeroni Xystarch II -
Defensive Linemen
1) Sir Tywrell Xah'Aawrone -
With Bruce White no longer playing out of position as a linebacker, we're back to our regularly scheduled programming. Xah'Aawrone is a high TPE defensive tackle in a 3-4 defense with minimal competition up front. He should be a wrecking ball for Arizona after already finishing as the DL4 last season.
2) MC Hammer -
Hammer finds himself in a very similar situation as Xah'Aawrone, only with marginally better surrounding talent to compete for stats. Still, Hammer should be a solid option.
3) Dub Redd -
New York linebackers Teemo Swift and Bay Webb both had remarkable seasons in S45 with each finishing among the top 10 fantasy scorers. However, regression was not kind to either. Dub Redd has some serious competition on the defensive line in the form of Lionel Scrimmage, but with the pair of linebackers clearly entering the twilight of their careers the door should be open for Dub Redd's breakout.
4) Bruce White -
Just because White isn't going to play linebacker again doesn't mean he's going to be useless for fantasy. The former defensive end put on a few pounds and switched to defensive tackle, but NOLA figures to run a 3-4 scheme. Without too much in the way of competition for production, White should still be a wrecking ball for New Orleans. Just pull back the expectations after last season.
5) Mo Gago -
Gago is still an excellent defensive tackle, but the talent around him is starting to catch up. The Wraiths front seven is on the verge of looking formidable, which means Gago's days of having his opponents' backfield all to himself are likely over.
6) Clint Mustache -
GOAT TANNK blew up the fantasy scoreboard and then blew out of town, leaving Mustache as the next man up. Defensive ends don't traditionally perform great in 3-4 systems (trust me, I would know), but TANNK did fine in this exact spot last season. There still isn't much competition in the Fire Salamanders' front seven, so maybe Mustache can recreate that magic.
7) Carly Rae Jensen -
Jensen has a lock on defensive line production in Austin, but the Copperheads boast one of the deepest linebacker corps in the league. Jensen won't be bad, but competing with linebackers is usually not a winning formula for linemen.
8) Jason Steele -
Steele finds himself in a very similar situation as Jensen, only with less TPE. He's still the clear leader of Cape Town's defensive line, but when he's competing with Rolud Onyxgut and the newly converted Justin Willis, that doesn't leave much for Steele to mop up.
Linebackers
1) Sherwin Blue Jr -
Yes, I had Sir Tywrell Xah'Aarone as the DL1. Yes, it's because there isn't much competition for racking up stats among Arizona's front seven. Yes, Blue is my LB1 for the same reason. No, it's not a contradiction. The Outlaws really only have Xah'Aarone and Blue as notable pieces in their front seven, with the next best player being the corpse of Akaki Akayre. While it's technically true that either one would be better off if the other didn't exist, the fact that these two are so distantly far ahead of everyone else in Arizona's front seven means they can coexist as dominant IDP forces.
2) Sim Sunigh -
Sunigh has some serious competition among his fellow linebackers for stats, but at least he doesn't have to worry about his defensive line stealing production. As long as they're eating up blocks and not breaking through them, Sunigh should go to work.
3) Rolud Onyxgut -
I was a bit disappointed in Onyxgut's performance last season at LB10. It certainly wasn't bad as he finished less than 30 points out of 2nd, but I was hoping for a bit more. For better or worse, I'm coming back to the same well this season. Cape Town's defensive line is somewhat coming up and the swap of Justin Willis from OL to LB is going to limit Onyxgut a bit, but Onyxgut is still the crown jewel of Cape Town's front seven. He should be fine.
4) Max Honestly -
Sarasota may not boast any studs among their front seven aside from Honestly, but they're far from weak. Almost everyone else is between 600 and 900 TPE, which is certainly solid in the world of ISFL. Honestly should shine, but collectively there may be enough surrounding talent to limit his upside.
5) Waylen Greene -
Colorado may not have much in the way of defensive line, but their linebacker corps is one of the best in the league top to bottom. What that means is that Greene is going to have serious competition for stats, but he should be good enough in his own right to still be productive.
6) Cruella de Ville -
The defending MVP has her work cut out for her going into S46. De Ville has now been passed up in TPE by fellow linebacker DJ Maclean and still has to contend with star defensive end Alex Armstrong. Her saving grace is a contract stipulation that she must be ROLB in all formations, which traditionally produces slightly better numbers. I have my doubts of a repeat performance, but she should still be solid.
7) John Stark VIII -
The other half of the Otters LB tandem, Stark is also a star linebacker in his own right. I suspect the slightly more veteran Sunigh will outperform Stark, but both should be relevant to the fantasy conversation.
8) Mario Moloka'i -
To Moloka'i's credit, he does hold a noticeable (if not particularly large) TPE lead among the Austin linebackers. The problem here is that the Copperheads have one of the better linebacker corps in the league, and they still have stud defensive tackle Carly Rae Jensen on the defensive line. That's a lot of competition for production, and will likely limit Moloka'i's upside.
Defensive Backs
1) Fronky Fresh -
Sarasota's continued offensive excellence will always put opponents in a position to throw in order to keep up, and their relative weakness in their secondary (at least compared to their front seven) will ensure opponents stay pass heavy. All the better for the maxed out Fresh to feast on.
2) Billy Jor-El -
Honolulu's offense may not be what it was a couple seasons ago, but they should still be good. And while the Hahalua certainly have a formidable secondary, their front seven is arguably tougher. So why Jor-El over incumbent star Luigi Lanikai? Well, a little birdy told me that Jor-El would be playing the CB1 role this season over Lanikai. CB1 means covering the WR1, which means more targets coming their way, which means more stats.
3) Ezra Azazel -
NOLA's secondary is, quite frankly, pitiful outside of Azazel. It should be an easy target for opponents, which just means Azazel will have extra chances to make use of their maxed out build.
4) Jamdrian LeBayers -
I'm not sure why the Otters' offense struggled last season, but they simply have too much talent to struggle again. A strong offense will put pressure on opponents and force them to throw more, which plays right into the hands (hopefully literally) of their stud CB1.
5) The Riddler -
Riddler is a bit low on TPE compared to most of his fantasy counterparts, but his situation here is everything. New York figures to be a strong offense, and their secondary is noticeably weaker than their front seven. Riddler's lower TPE will probably limit his upside, but his situation should keep his floor high.
6) Benjamin Duvernay -
Duvernay falls at the other end of the spectrum. Arizona's secondary is clearly the strength of their defense, which means opponents will likely prefer trying to run it on the Outlaws instead of passing. However, Arizona's offense still looks potent as ever. Opponents may not have a choice.
7) Kadarius Claypool II -
The bottom line here is that Yellowknife's offense isn't exactly striking fear into anyone. Where Claypool has upside, though, is that the Wraiths' secondary is notably weaker than their front seven, highlighted by Yellowknife having the worst passing defense in the league last season. Where there's volume, there's potential for stats.
8) Jake Williams -
Baltimore's secondary is far stronger than their front seven and their offense is likely taking a noticeable step back. However, that doesn't mean the offense will be stuck in the mud, and Williams is still a very high TPE corner. He'll have his chances.