03-12-2024, 03:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-19-2024, 09:00 AM by wetwilleh. Edited 1 time in total.)
All season long I kept hearing the same thing over and over:
“Minnesota’s roster is stacked”
“Ducks are the favorites to win the Ultimini”
“HONK!”
The Grey Ducks wound up with the top spot on ye olde TPE Tracker for S46. I didn’t happen to grab team TPE totals from the start of the season, but as of the end of the season here is where the DSFL wound up.
This isn’t meant to be a deep dive on the TPE tracker, but this helps explain why MIN was favored by many this season. Top of the league in total and effective TPE does indeed indicate a stacked roster. The average TPE and effective TPE numbers don’t really account for number of players. Also the TPE Tracker itself doesn’t account for GM or OL bots whatsoever, and if used effectively bots can make up for a lack of user players quite well. The last thing the TPE tracker doesn’t fully measure is positional strength. A capped QB is not equal in value to a capped OL, and vice versa up and down both sides of the ball. But from a quick glance here, we can all understand while people had Duck Fever.
But Minnesota DIDN’T win the Ultimini! They didn’t even make the Ultimini! What the hell happened?!? If you watched any DSFL sims this season, you likely know what happened. Turnovers. Did the Ducks have some inferior Hands or Competitive build? The index doesn’t do a great job of quantifying turnover ratio, since offensive fumble recoveries are lumped in with defensive fumble recoveries. Your offense fumbling and recovering the fumble isn’t certainly a GOOD thing, its light years better than losing the fumble or throwing a pick.
Around week 4 or so, I started tracking MIN’s turnover ratio. The quickest way for me to get it was going to each box score and comparing the Turnover stats for both teams. That would include interceptions, FL on offense, and FR on defense. The results were SHOCKING:
Minus 10 on the season for a playoff team and division champs?? What on earth?? Also, DAL hello? How are you doubling up the next best team in the league in turnovers? Clearly there is some FUNK in these numbers because they STINK. This is mostly for fun, but I refuse to believe the sim is gonna sim that hard both in favor of one team and against another team across an entire season. The first interesting bit of info I found was that MIN defense was absolutely terrible at forcing fumbles.
Only 8 forced fumbles on the YEAR, resulting in only 3 recoveries. That recovery percentage actually isn’t so bad compared to the rest of the league, but the percentage isn’t as important as the raw stats. Look at DAL for example. Even if we brought DAL recoveries down to 50% that would still be enough to lead the league in raw FR. But why? Why the big DAL numbers and tiny baby MIN numbers?
On Offense, I don’t really see anything that indicates MIN should have been turning the ball over more than other teams. Im sure someone is going to drop some sim knowledge I’m not privy to in the comments, but I would expect HANDS and COMPETITIVENESS would be the most important statistics for the ballcarrier to limit fumbles. Based on the TPE Tracker, MIN is still top of the league in this regard. DAL is also middle of the pack, so their excellent turnover ratio is not due to the Offense having a death grip on the rock. Below includes QB, RB, TE, and WR.
On defense, practically every stat contributes in some way to forcing fumbles. Here is a similar table for all positions on defense. Its sorted by the sum of all 4 stats. Again, not seeing anything here to really indicate MIN should be far and away the worst team at forcing fumbles or that DAL should be doubling or tripling up the rest of the league.
Well, that’s about all there is to see here I suppose. Sim gonna sim can be a bitter pill to swallow, however it’s the only medicine for lack of dot ball. In conclusion, here is this season’s Hall of Shame for MIN: Fumble + Interception Totals by Player. Maybe the key to not turning the ball over, is to not have your player named TurnDaBallOva?
(Note to grader: I put all the tables as images because formatting them is a pain and looks ugly on the forum. If you could factor that into WC I'd appreciate it)
“Minnesota’s roster is stacked”
“Ducks are the favorites to win the Ultimini”
“HONK!”
The Grey Ducks wound up with the top spot on ye olde TPE Tracker for S46. I didn’t happen to grab team TPE totals from the start of the season, but as of the end of the season here is where the DSFL wound up.
This isn’t meant to be a deep dive on the TPE tracker, but this helps explain why MIN was favored by many this season. Top of the league in total and effective TPE does indeed indicate a stacked roster. The average TPE and effective TPE numbers don’t really account for number of players. Also the TPE Tracker itself doesn’t account for GM or OL bots whatsoever, and if used effectively bots can make up for a lack of user players quite well. The last thing the TPE tracker doesn’t fully measure is positional strength. A capped QB is not equal in value to a capped OL, and vice versa up and down both sides of the ball. But from a quick glance here, we can all understand while people had Duck Fever.
But Minnesota DIDN’T win the Ultimini! They didn’t even make the Ultimini! What the hell happened?!? If you watched any DSFL sims this season, you likely know what happened. Turnovers. Did the Ducks have some inferior Hands or Competitive build? The index doesn’t do a great job of quantifying turnover ratio, since offensive fumble recoveries are lumped in with defensive fumble recoveries. Your offense fumbling and recovering the fumble isn’t certainly a GOOD thing, its light years better than losing the fumble or throwing a pick.
Around week 4 or so, I started tracking MIN’s turnover ratio. The quickest way for me to get it was going to each box score and comparing the Turnover stats for both teams. That would include interceptions, FL on offense, and FR on defense. The results were SHOCKING:
Minus 10 on the season for a playoff team and division champs?? What on earth?? Also, DAL hello? How are you doubling up the next best team in the league in turnovers? Clearly there is some FUNK in these numbers because they STINK. This is mostly for fun, but I refuse to believe the sim is gonna sim that hard both in favor of one team and against another team across an entire season. The first interesting bit of info I found was that MIN defense was absolutely terrible at forcing fumbles.
Only 8 forced fumbles on the YEAR, resulting in only 3 recoveries. That recovery percentage actually isn’t so bad compared to the rest of the league, but the percentage isn’t as important as the raw stats. Look at DAL for example. Even if we brought DAL recoveries down to 50% that would still be enough to lead the league in raw FR. But why? Why the big DAL numbers and tiny baby MIN numbers?
On Offense, I don’t really see anything that indicates MIN should have been turning the ball over more than other teams. Im sure someone is going to drop some sim knowledge I’m not privy to in the comments, but I would expect HANDS and COMPETITIVENESS would be the most important statistics for the ballcarrier to limit fumbles. Based on the TPE Tracker, MIN is still top of the league in this regard. DAL is also middle of the pack, so their excellent turnover ratio is not due to the Offense having a death grip on the rock. Below includes QB, RB, TE, and WR.
On defense, practically every stat contributes in some way to forcing fumbles. Here is a similar table for all positions on defense. Its sorted by the sum of all 4 stats. Again, not seeing anything here to really indicate MIN should be far and away the worst team at forcing fumbles or that DAL should be doubling or tripling up the rest of the league.
Well, that’s about all there is to see here I suppose. Sim gonna sim can be a bitter pill to swallow, however it’s the only medicine for lack of dot ball. In conclusion, here is this season’s Hall of Shame for MIN: Fumble + Interception Totals by Player. Maybe the key to not turning the ball over, is to not have your player named TurnDaBallOva?
(Note to grader: I put all the tables as images because formatting them is a pain and looks ugly on the forum. If you could factor that into WC I'd appreciate it)