04-23-2024, 11:40 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-24-2024, 08:39 AM by ProdigalSon. Edited 2 times in total.)
Hello everyone! I’ve got a question in mind that I hope to answer, and that is, if you’re a high school prospect, which DSFL team should you commit to?
We’ve got a pretty established “conception” that the DSFL is like college, and the ISFL draft is the NFL entry draft, of course, even DSFL teams draft their prospects, but let’s imagine that each player who chooses to go to a team is actually choosing their team, as if they were committing to a college.
If you’re a high school player at each position, which DSFL team do you commit to? Does a specific team have an edge at producing the next great bell-cow running back? What if a team can’t find any good talent at the OL spot?
Luckily for you, and kind of for me, we’ve got some data on our last ISFL drafts! Our data spans from S27-S47, which is the entire Current Sim Engine Era, or CSEE for short. Usually I give a link to my data spreadsheet here, but I’m actually pretty bad at Excel/Sheets so I just threw it all into a database (super easy to do) and then wrote code to output the data I was looking for, and that I have for you here.
The article focuses on the first two rounds, this is the cutoff point to draft classes having strong candidates to pick, excluding the huge classes. So if you got drafted in the 4th+ and are still around, heck yeah, you were a draft steal and you might show up on the article in data if you recreated between S27 and now.
What is TPE/S?
We’re going to be using TPE/S to account for how good a team is at developing players.
TPE/S stands for TPE gained per season. In other words, it’s how much TPE a player has gained in their career. For a top 5 pick in the ISFL, you’re expected around 163 TPE/S, compared to 147 TPE/S in the bottom 5. The entire 2nd round averages to 115 TPE/S, and that includes a ton of GM picks.
HOWEVER, there’s stuff like regression, so what’s been done is I got each player’s highest TPE total earned, and then did some math on it!
![[Image: i2qeibc.png]](https://i.imgur.com/i2qeibc.png)
Basically, you get the Highest TPE Earned and divide it by the number of seasons they’ve played (but with a minimum of 1 season and maximum of 7 seasons). We remove 50 since that’s the starting TPE everyone starts with!
We max out at 7 seasons earned because that’s how many seasons it takes to start regression, and then you can’t out earn Father Time. Our season start number is S49, as that’s what it takes to include the DSFL season of these new S47 creates!
So that’s TPE/S, xTPE/S stands for Expected TPE gained per season. What I’ve done is gotten the TPE/S of each player drafted from S27 til S47 and gotten how much TPE/S each draft position/position group/etc has and that shows what kind of “draft value” each position has, depending on our criteria.
(Also, I haven’t used LaTeX since university, that was wild opening that again)
Disclaimers
1. Our data is based on the ISFL Draft sheets that GMs input their picks into, if one of these sheets is wrong, I won’t know.
2. I normalized players’ names, but not positions/teams. If you swapped positions, you’ll be listed at the same position as you were drafted at, same with teams. For example, Thomas Passarelli is a TE in the data, even if he swapped to WR. Similarly, Emile Charles’ earning counts towards Berlin’s stats, even if he is no longer on Berlin’s roster.
3. Player data is as of the TPE Tracker of April 16th, this leads to some “lesser” xTPE/S but doesn’t have that big a sway with this much data in our sheets (we’ve got about 1200 players in our data set)
4. There’s a single big outlier season S41 had 91 total picks, and to a lesser extent, S36 had 79. These classes buoy the xTPE/S a bit, but not so much.
5. The numbers veer towards being generous rather than not, so our collected xTPE/S is greater than 0, and that’s okay.
OKAY DISCLAIMERS AND TERMS OVER. TIME FOR MORE NUMBERS!
Alright, with the first graph, I’m going to spoil the ENTIRE media piece!
We’ve got right here, the products of each DSFL team within the top 2 rounds of the ISFL draft by position group! That’s right! This is where you go to pick the next great player for your ISFL team!
![[Image: A5wHgRp.png]](https://i.imgur.com/A5wHgRp.png)
Each of these position groups are colour coded within each position group, so if you see green, you’re seeing green based on that position.
Lets go position by position, and talk about the current DSFL prospects we’ve got within these groups. The target numbers we’re looking for btw:
Top of the 1st: 160 TPE/S
Bottom of the 1st: 147 TPE/S
Top of the 2nd: 126 TPE/S
Bottom of the 2nd: 114 TPE/S
![[Image: WmvjAbk.png]](https://i.imgur.com/WmvjAbk.png)
Quarterbacks are tricky in that they are the most important position and you definitely want a top earner. I would even hazard to say that the baseline expectation is 160 TPE/S. That’s all your tasks, ACs, training, etc.
With that in mind, we’ve got some schools who turn out top QBs!
Ideally you get an offer from Minnesota or Kansas City, but London extending a scholarship to snag you is fantastic as well.
If you’re not that top 5 star quarterback you might have to settle for any one of the Tier 3 schools in Tijuana, Bondi Beach, Portland, or Dallas, but you definitely don’t want to be stuck with your only offer in hand being Norfolk.
Draft candidates to watch:
Greg Hirsch - Minnesota Grey Ducks (157 TPE)
With Running Backs, there’s one school that produces by far and away the best, that’s Minnesota again. Minny alumni Reginald Shrubbery is proving that right now, and Dominc Reynolds (@standardan) and Soul King Brooks (TwoSocks) are the two hot draftees from Minnesota, let’s see how they do!
I would caution against any of Norfolk, Dallas, and Portland if you’re a running back prospect, they don’t develop so hot, but you can’t go wrong with London, Kansas City, Bondi Beach, or Tijuana if you’re looking to make a splash in the ISFL. Preferably you go with a Tier 2 school, but if the warm weather of Bondi Beach or Tijuana calls, you’ll still develop well.
Draft candidates to watch:
Zigzag Zipstep - London Royals (239 TPE)
Dazen Guile - Dallas Birddogs (239 TPE)
Animal Blundetto - Portland Pythons (200 TPE)
Stone Wall - Bondi Beach Buccaneers (193 TPE)
American Dream - Portland Pythons (189 TPE)
WR is where you’ve got a ton of choice on where to go, and you really need to go to one of the top four.
Tier 1 schools include Norfolk, Kansas City, Dallas, and Minnesota. We don’t have a Tier 2 for wide outs, you do not want to come out of Tijuana, Bondi Beach, London, or Portland. These teams do not run offenses that translate to the pro scene, if that’s all you’ve got an offer for, of course you can out-perform your school, but it’s uphill for WRs.
With two of our top WRs this draft class coming from a Tier 3 school, and the best of them as well, we’re going to see if Bondi Beach can turn around its reputation for development.
Draft candidates to watch:
Seer Ial - Bondi Beach Buccaneers (216 TPE)
Big Tractor - Kansas City Coyotes (199 TPE)
Lawrence Crawford - Tijuana Luchadores (183 TPE)
Warren Peace - Norfolk Seawolves (179 TPE)
TE is more stratified than the WR position, with only Norfolk repeating as a Tier 1 school, but Portland and Tijuana who use heavy TE sets also join Norfolk in Tier 1.
London and Kansas city are Tier 2 schools for this position, and with how few TEs play in the ISFL, this might as well be a Tier 3 school. I hope you’re small enough to run WR routes, or big enough to translate to the LB position.
Bondi Beach and Dallas make up Tier 3, the range at where we are definitely going to see some GMs and coaches start to see if you have the skills to translate elsewhere, and you definitely don’t want to go to Minnesota.
Minnesota doesn’t roster any TE coaches it seems like, they run ISFL style offenses, minimizing your chances to see the field, and if you get in on this team, you’re a walk-on, no scholarships given.
Draft candidates to watch:
GoTo imnegs.net - London Royals (172 TPE)
Kurt Wagner - Portland Pythons (134 TPE)
Ah, the big boys, and we’ve got a standout here, Minnesota spends all the budget that they’ve got on TE coaches and puts them into the Offensive Line. If you can swing it, this is definitely the place you want to come to. With a whopping +50 TPE/S on Tier 2, this is where all the fortified fridges dream of getting an offer from.
Portland and Dallas aren’t bad OL teams, they just don’t have that special genius that Minnesota has. Any offensive lineman coming here should be more than happy.
Kansas City and Tijuana make up the Tier 3 as your safety school, but more importantly, you do not want to go to Norfolk. These OL players out of Virginia do not translate, and more often than not, do not have the skills needed to make it big.
Draft candidates to watch:
Gusztáv Farkas - Dallas Birddogs (227 TPE)
Acutiramus Bohemius - Dallas Birddogs (119 TPE)
If we’re tier-listing stuff, we’ve got to tier list the schools too! I’ve scored teams on where they live on the positional tier lists (Tier 1 = 4 points down to 0 points for Tier 5).
![[Image: RzhtWhF.png]](https://i.imgur.com/RzhtWhF.png)
Minnesota Grey Ducks (17) - The Grey Ducks are truly an elite team at turning out offensive weapons for the ISFL level. Scoring at Tier 1 in every category except TE (Tier 4), the Grey Ducks are where a high school grad commits if they want to learn how to play the pro game. They might not win in the DSFL, but they’ll know how in the ISFL.
Kansas City Coyotes (15) - Kansas City produces Coyotes who are routinely excellent. They don’t have that top tier pedigree of the Grey Ducks, but if you’re a quarterback or wide receiver, you’re going to thrive in the pass heavy game, and the running backs get some work too!
London Royals (12) - We’ve got a four way tie here in Tier 3 at 12 points each. London wins the tie break as they’re great at producing QBs, RBs, and TEs, lacking with some OL and WR play, looks like a long of nasty, 2 TE schemes based on short dump-offs and play-action in London!
Tijuana Luchadores (12) - I expected more out of Tijuana who wins so often, but we’ve got a lot of winning from coaches who can put together a lot from a school that only produces (or receives) Tier 3 talent across the board.
Portland Pythons (12) - The question of Portland vs Tijuana comes down to Ws, and Tijuana gives you more chances to get those, but if you are a pro level TE or OL player, you’re better off in Portland where you’ll be more ready for the ISFL level.
Dallas Birddogs (12) - Dallas is a school carried by its track record of top tier WR talent. While you might not want to commit as an RB, Dallas finds the WRs and makes sure they’re on top of their game by the time it's time to go to the pros.
Norfolk Seawolves (10) - The Seawolves are a home run or strike-out kind of team when it comes to the offense. If you’re a Wide Receiver or Tight End, you’re hoping to get a scholarship letter, but if you’re an OL player? You might just be filling out some depth chart numbers out in Virginia.
Bondi Beach Buccaneers (9) - Looks like the sunny sands of the Bondi Beach is a bit too relaxing, the players coming out of Bondi Beach, in aggregate, seem to take this as a way to get a scholarship, but not as a serious effort to go pro, maxing out at being a Tier 3 school on the offense side of the ball.
We’ve got a pretty established “conception” that the DSFL is like college, and the ISFL draft is the NFL entry draft, of course, even DSFL teams draft their prospects, but let’s imagine that each player who chooses to go to a team is actually choosing their team, as if they were committing to a college.
If you’re a high school player at each position, which DSFL team do you commit to? Does a specific team have an edge at producing the next great bell-cow running back? What if a team can’t find any good talent at the OL spot?
Luckily for you, and kind of for me, we’ve got some data on our last ISFL drafts! Our data spans from S27-S47, which is the entire Current Sim Engine Era, or CSEE for short. Usually I give a link to my data spreadsheet here, but I’m actually pretty bad at Excel/Sheets so I just threw it all into a database (super easy to do) and then wrote code to output the data I was looking for, and that I have for you here.
The article focuses on the first two rounds, this is the cutoff point to draft classes having strong candidates to pick, excluding the huge classes. So if you got drafted in the 4th+ and are still around, heck yeah, you were a draft steal and you might show up on the article in data if you recreated between S27 and now.
What is TPE/S?
We’re going to be using TPE/S to account for how good a team is at developing players.
TPE/S stands for TPE gained per season. In other words, it’s how much TPE a player has gained in their career. For a top 5 pick in the ISFL, you’re expected around 163 TPE/S, compared to 147 TPE/S in the bottom 5. The entire 2nd round averages to 115 TPE/S, and that includes a ton of GM picks.
HOWEVER, there’s stuff like regression, so what’s been done is I got each player’s highest TPE total earned, and then did some math on it!
Basically, you get the Highest TPE Earned and divide it by the number of seasons they’ve played (but with a minimum of 1 season and maximum of 7 seasons). We remove 50 since that’s the starting TPE everyone starts with!
We max out at 7 seasons earned because that’s how many seasons it takes to start regression, and then you can’t out earn Father Time. Our season start number is S49, as that’s what it takes to include the DSFL season of these new S47 creates!
So that’s TPE/S, xTPE/S stands for Expected TPE gained per season. What I’ve done is gotten the TPE/S of each player drafted from S27 til S47 and gotten how much TPE/S each draft position/position group/etc has and that shows what kind of “draft value” each position has, depending on our criteria.
(Also, I haven’t used LaTeX since university, that was wild opening that again)
Disclaimers
1. Our data is based on the ISFL Draft sheets that GMs input their picks into, if one of these sheets is wrong, I won’t know.
2. I normalized players’ names, but not positions/teams. If you swapped positions, you’ll be listed at the same position as you were drafted at, same with teams. For example, Thomas Passarelli is a TE in the data, even if he swapped to WR. Similarly, Emile Charles’ earning counts towards Berlin’s stats, even if he is no longer on Berlin’s roster.
3. Player data is as of the TPE Tracker of April 16th, this leads to some “lesser” xTPE/S but doesn’t have that big a sway with this much data in our sheets (we’ve got about 1200 players in our data set)
4. There’s a single big outlier season S41 had 91 total picks, and to a lesser extent, S36 had 79. These classes buoy the xTPE/S a bit, but not so much.
5. The numbers veer towards being generous rather than not, so our collected xTPE/S is greater than 0, and that’s okay.
OKAY DISCLAIMERS AND TERMS OVER. TIME FOR MORE NUMBERS!
Position Groups x DSFL Team
Alright, with the first graph, I’m going to spoil the ENTIRE media piece!
We’ve got right here, the products of each DSFL team within the top 2 rounds of the ISFL draft by position group! That’s right! This is where you go to pick the next great player for your ISFL team!
Each of these position groups are colour coded within each position group, so if you see green, you’re seeing green based on that position.
Lets go position by position, and talk about the current DSFL prospects we’ve got within these groups. The target numbers we’re looking for btw:
Top of the 1st: 160 TPE/S
Bottom of the 1st: 147 TPE/S
Top of the 2nd: 126 TPE/S
Bottom of the 2nd: 114 TPE/S
=== QB ===
Quarterbacks are tricky in that they are the most important position and you definitely want a top earner. I would even hazard to say that the baseline expectation is 160 TPE/S. That’s all your tasks, ACs, training, etc.
With that in mind, we’ve got some schools who turn out top QBs!
Ideally you get an offer from Minnesota or Kansas City, but London extending a scholarship to snag you is fantastic as well.
If you’re not that top 5 star quarterback you might have to settle for any one of the Tier 3 schools in Tijuana, Bondi Beach, Portland, or Dallas, but you definitely don’t want to be stuck with your only offer in hand being Norfolk.
Draft candidates to watch:
Greg Hirsch - Minnesota Grey Ducks (157 TPE)
=== RB ===
With Running Backs, there’s one school that produces by far and away the best, that’s Minnesota again. Minny alumni Reginald Shrubbery is proving that right now, and Dominc Reynolds (@standardan) and Soul King Brooks (TwoSocks) are the two hot draftees from Minnesota, let’s see how they do!
I would caution against any of Norfolk, Dallas, and Portland if you’re a running back prospect, they don’t develop so hot, but you can’t go wrong with London, Kansas City, Bondi Beach, or Tijuana if you’re looking to make a splash in the ISFL. Preferably you go with a Tier 2 school, but if the warm weather of Bondi Beach or Tijuana calls, you’ll still develop well.
Draft candidates to watch:
Zigzag Zipstep - London Royals (239 TPE)
Dazen Guile - Dallas Birddogs (239 TPE)
Animal Blundetto - Portland Pythons (200 TPE)
Stone Wall - Bondi Beach Buccaneers (193 TPE)
American Dream - Portland Pythons (189 TPE)
=== WR ===
WR is where you’ve got a ton of choice on where to go, and you really need to go to one of the top four.
Tier 1 schools include Norfolk, Kansas City, Dallas, and Minnesota. We don’t have a Tier 2 for wide outs, you do not want to come out of Tijuana, Bondi Beach, London, or Portland. These teams do not run offenses that translate to the pro scene, if that’s all you’ve got an offer for, of course you can out-perform your school, but it’s uphill for WRs.
With two of our top WRs this draft class coming from a Tier 3 school, and the best of them as well, we’re going to see if Bondi Beach can turn around its reputation for development.
Draft candidates to watch:
Seer Ial - Bondi Beach Buccaneers (216 TPE)
Big Tractor - Kansas City Coyotes (199 TPE)
Lawrence Crawford - Tijuana Luchadores (183 TPE)
Warren Peace - Norfolk Seawolves (179 TPE)
=== TE ===
TE is more stratified than the WR position, with only Norfolk repeating as a Tier 1 school, but Portland and Tijuana who use heavy TE sets also join Norfolk in Tier 1.
London and Kansas city are Tier 2 schools for this position, and with how few TEs play in the ISFL, this might as well be a Tier 3 school. I hope you’re small enough to run WR routes, or big enough to translate to the LB position.
Bondi Beach and Dallas make up Tier 3, the range at where we are definitely going to see some GMs and coaches start to see if you have the skills to translate elsewhere, and you definitely don’t want to go to Minnesota.
Minnesota doesn’t roster any TE coaches it seems like, they run ISFL style offenses, minimizing your chances to see the field, and if you get in on this team, you’re a walk-on, no scholarships given.
Draft candidates to watch:
GoTo imnegs.net - London Royals (172 TPE)
Kurt Wagner - Portland Pythons (134 TPE)
=== OL ===
Ah, the big boys, and we’ve got a standout here, Minnesota spends all the budget that they’ve got on TE coaches and puts them into the Offensive Line. If you can swing it, this is definitely the place you want to come to. With a whopping +50 TPE/S on Tier 2, this is where all the fortified fridges dream of getting an offer from.
Portland and Dallas aren’t bad OL teams, they just don’t have that special genius that Minnesota has. Any offensive lineman coming here should be more than happy.
Kansas City and Tijuana make up the Tier 3 as your safety school, but more importantly, you do not want to go to Norfolk. These OL players out of Virginia do not translate, and more often than not, do not have the skills needed to make it big.
Draft candidates to watch:
Gusztáv Farkas - Dallas Birddogs (227 TPE)
Acutiramus Bohemius - Dallas Birddogs (119 TPE)
DSFL School Profiles
If we’re tier-listing stuff, we’ve got to tier list the schools too! I’ve scored teams on where they live on the positional tier lists (Tier 1 = 4 points down to 0 points for Tier 5).
=== Tier 1 ===
Minnesota Grey Ducks (17) - The Grey Ducks are truly an elite team at turning out offensive weapons for the ISFL level. Scoring at Tier 1 in every category except TE (Tier 4), the Grey Ducks are where a high school grad commits if they want to learn how to play the pro game. They might not win in the DSFL, but they’ll know how in the ISFL.=== Tier 2 ===
Kansas City Coyotes (15) - Kansas City produces Coyotes who are routinely excellent. They don’t have that top tier pedigree of the Grey Ducks, but if you’re a quarterback or wide receiver, you’re going to thrive in the pass heavy game, and the running backs get some work too!=== Tier 3 ===
London Royals (12) - We’ve got a four way tie here in Tier 3 at 12 points each. London wins the tie break as they’re great at producing QBs, RBs, and TEs, lacking with some OL and WR play, looks like a long of nasty, 2 TE schemes based on short dump-offs and play-action in London!Tijuana Luchadores (12) - I expected more out of Tijuana who wins so often, but we’ve got a lot of winning from coaches who can put together a lot from a school that only produces (or receives) Tier 3 talent across the board.
Portland Pythons (12) - The question of Portland vs Tijuana comes down to Ws, and Tijuana gives you more chances to get those, but if you are a pro level TE or OL player, you’re better off in Portland where you’ll be more ready for the ISFL level. Dallas Birddogs (12) - Dallas is a school carried by its track record of top tier WR talent. While you might not want to commit as an RB, Dallas finds the WRs and makes sure they’re on top of their game by the time it's time to go to the pros.=== Tier 4 ===
Norfolk Seawolves (10) - The Seawolves are a home run or strike-out kind of team when it comes to the offense. If you’re a Wide Receiver or Tight End, you’re hoping to get a scholarship letter, but if you’re an OL player? You might just be filling out some depth chart numbers out in Virginia. Bondi Beach Buccaneers (9) - Looks like the sunny sands of the Bondi Beach is a bit too relaxing, the players coming out of Bondi Beach, in aggregate, seem to take this as a way to get a scholarship, but not as a serious effort to go pro, maxing out at being a Tier 3 school on the offense side of the ball.
S42 Getting Defensive Podcast - New Player Silver Medalist
S47 Ultimus
S46 Ultimus
S46 ISFL Most Dedicated Member
Gemini Awards: S42 Best Article (Series), S44 Best Article (Limited), S46 Best Author
S42 DSFL Most Dedicated Member
S45 ISFL All-Rookie Team: WR1
DSFL Offensive Player of the Year: S43
DSFL First-team All-Pro: S43, S44
DSFL Pro Bowl: S42, S43, S44
S43 R1.01 - Arizona Outlaws S42 R1.04 - Minnesota Grey Ducks -----
Try out the Player Updater tool!
lemonoppy.com/isfl/player-updater
lemonoppy.com/isfl/player-updater
![[Image: l86IqoO.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/l86IqoO.jpg)
![[Image: wetwilleh.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/wetwilleh.gif)
![[Image: CROney3.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/CROney3.gif)
![[Image: ChickenLips.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/ChickenLips.gif)
![[Image: JLcbwdP.jpeg]](https://i.imgur.com/JLcbwdP.jpeg)
![[Image: UptownCord.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/UptownCord.gif)
![[Image: feigenbaum5.gif]](https://sig.grumpybumpers.com/host/feigenbaum5.gif)
![[Image: Bq3jRFE.png]](https://i.imgur.com/Bq3jRFE.png)
![[Image: bb1.png]](https://i.postimg.cc/mkSsy1H0/bb1.png)
