12-01-2017, 08:46 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-02-2017, 10:53 AM by timeconsumer.)
Robbed
The Hawks should have made the playoffs over the Wraiths. There, I said it. Now I know what you’re thinking: Why the Wraiths and not the Taco Bells? The Wraiths had a better record while the Tacos had a tie record with the Hawks. Because of reasons. Reasons that I don’t really have. Except that the Wraiths should have sucked a lot more than they actually did this season. They were just downright lucky in a lot of games and should have ended in third place.
So the Hawks got screwed. And really this wasn’t just because the Wraiths fell ass-backwards into wins. It’s also because they had a couple of really unlucky breaks also. At least twice this season the Hawks lost games they really should have won. The fact of the matter is that with only a 14 game season there is a lot of variance built into this game. If this were like another sim sport where each team played more than 50 games per season it would be far more likely that the Hawks would have ended up as the #1 or #2 team in the NSFC along with the Liberty. But that’s not the case, so we have the Wraiths.
Root for the Underdog
The Otters are going into Arizona for the 4th time in a row in the season four playoffs. This season they are banking that they will not be headed back home for another long offseason after the game is finished. The Otters are a stronger team. The Outlaws are a weaker team. In past seasons the Otters chances of winning in Arizona usually hung around 30%. Even when facing them at home the Otters really were only a 50/50 shot of winning. This season is different. Now when they play in Arizona the Otters are closer to 50/50, maybe even a little higher.
So the trick to winning it all is going to come down to a little luck and the right gameplan. To be fair it’s not like it is very hard to guess the gameplan of either team. Both are going pass-heavy. The Otters with balanced and the Outlaws with vertical. These work well for both teams. Both are going heavy blitz in early downs and backing off the blitz when they drop into the nickel or the dime. Both plan to shut down the run with high-level play from their defensive lines and linebackers. This game is going to be a shootout, and the Otters have proven for two seasons running they are the best in the league at that game.
Matchup Nightmares
In a playoff series promising plenty of interesting dynamics to watch there will be one interaction that this writer is going to be keeping his eye on carefully. That is going to be the matchup combination of Tyler Oles and Bailey Cook. Both are talented players that while not being considered the absolute best at their position will be major parts of what decides a win or a loss in the conference championship game. Who will come out on top? I for one think that this will be a matchup that gets dictated by defensive back Tyler Oles.
It is hard to quantify the effect of a good corner in simulation football. There are a lot of intangible ways that the game is affected by their play. Sure the PDs and the INTs might not show up all the time for a good player, and might show up a lot for a rookie or an inactive player. That doesn’t mean that one is necessarily better or worse than the other. But by analyzing how the corner, receiver, and quarterback all interact over a series of many plays it starts to reveal itself. Oles is a strong, fast, agile corner with good instincts. Although Cook will almost certainly get some catches or draw a different corner on some plays, Oles will be the winner of this matchup.
New Talent
There were not a whole lot of big trades in season four for playoff teams to write about. Most of them were smaller trades for newer players or for less active guys. If I have to pick one I would say that the Orange County Otters tight end they received in trade from Las Vegas Steven O’sullivan is going to be the big impact player in the playoffs when they face Arizona in the Solis game.
Although he is only a rookie O’Sullivan has proven to be a high quality acquisition in the Otters high octane passing attack.
One thing that is great about O’Sullivan is his great hands. He has a very low drop rate compared to many other tight ends in the league, and that is something the Otters value. He might not get a lot of yards after the catch, but when it comes time to move the chains when they need to convert a 3rd and 4 the Otters know they can rely on O’Sullivan in the ASFC Championship. I expect him to have 8 catches on 10 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown while also doing well in the blocking game by tallying 5 pancakes and no sacks allowed.
Playoff Predictions
In the Otters vs Outlaws game we can expect the passing attack to dominate the offenses. Both teams have a strong rushing defense so we can expect them to try and focus on the the weakest part of the opposing defense and exploit the secondaries. Not that either team has a weak secondary, but it is not as strong as their front 7. The winner here is going to be the team that turns the ball over the least. I predict the otters to win led by Westfield and Boss with 3 TDs shared between them. The Outlaws will come close but will lose the shootout as the final score comes to 37-34
In the Liberty vs Wraiths game the teams couldn't be much more different. Both are led by less experienced signal callers, but the Wraiths have a highly skilled Akselsen leading the charge with his mobile skills. The Wraiths also have better wide receivers than their opponents. Meanwhile on defense the Liberty are the stronger team with a great front 7 and a solid secondary. Because of this it is difficult to determine who will come out on top. The Liberty will have to come up with a solid gameplan on defense to matchup against Bailey Cook and Eric Kennedy. The Wraiths will have to try and not let their opponent score too often so that they aren't constantly forced to try and score every possession. I think the away team gets the win here too with the Liberty walking out winners 24-17.
Finally we have the Ultimus game. Given that I predicted Liberty @ Otters we are left with a very difficult game for the Liberty to try and find success. They have constantly struggled against ASFC teams this season, and the Otters are no exception. Liberty's strong defense matches up well with the passing attack of Orange County, but will it be enough? Trying to match them point-for-point is an exercise in futility. The only way they could win would be to force turnovers and to play well on special teams, something they have proven is a strength. I expect the Liberty to put up a good fight but in a game winning drive Mike Boss seals the deal with a 50 yard completion to Bradley Westfield who gets tackled at the 5 and watch as Leroy Jenkins punches it in for the winning TD. Otters 49-42.
The Hawks should have made the playoffs over the Wraiths. There, I said it. Now I know what you’re thinking: Why the Wraiths and not the Taco Bells? The Wraiths had a better record while the Tacos had a tie record with the Hawks. Because of reasons. Reasons that I don’t really have. Except that the Wraiths should have sucked a lot more than they actually did this season. They were just downright lucky in a lot of games and should have ended in third place.
So the Hawks got screwed. And really this wasn’t just because the Wraiths fell ass-backwards into wins. It’s also because they had a couple of really unlucky breaks also. At least twice this season the Hawks lost games they really should have won. The fact of the matter is that with only a 14 game season there is a lot of variance built into this game. If this were like another sim sport where each team played more than 50 games per season it would be far more likely that the Hawks would have ended up as the #1 or #2 team in the NSFC along with the Liberty. But that’s not the case, so we have the Wraiths.
Root for the Underdog
The Otters are going into Arizona for the 4th time in a row in the season four playoffs. This season they are banking that they will not be headed back home for another long offseason after the game is finished. The Otters are a stronger team. The Outlaws are a weaker team. In past seasons the Otters chances of winning in Arizona usually hung around 30%. Even when facing them at home the Otters really were only a 50/50 shot of winning. This season is different. Now when they play in Arizona the Otters are closer to 50/50, maybe even a little higher.
So the trick to winning it all is going to come down to a little luck and the right gameplan. To be fair it’s not like it is very hard to guess the gameplan of either team. Both are going pass-heavy. The Otters with balanced and the Outlaws with vertical. These work well for both teams. Both are going heavy blitz in early downs and backing off the blitz when they drop into the nickel or the dime. Both plan to shut down the run with high-level play from their defensive lines and linebackers. This game is going to be a shootout, and the Otters have proven for two seasons running they are the best in the league at that game.
Matchup Nightmares
In a playoff series promising plenty of interesting dynamics to watch there will be one interaction that this writer is going to be keeping his eye on carefully. That is going to be the matchup combination of Tyler Oles and Bailey Cook. Both are talented players that while not being considered the absolute best at their position will be major parts of what decides a win or a loss in the conference championship game. Who will come out on top? I for one think that this will be a matchup that gets dictated by defensive back Tyler Oles.
It is hard to quantify the effect of a good corner in simulation football. There are a lot of intangible ways that the game is affected by their play. Sure the PDs and the INTs might not show up all the time for a good player, and might show up a lot for a rookie or an inactive player. That doesn’t mean that one is necessarily better or worse than the other. But by analyzing how the corner, receiver, and quarterback all interact over a series of many plays it starts to reveal itself. Oles is a strong, fast, agile corner with good instincts. Although Cook will almost certainly get some catches or draw a different corner on some plays, Oles will be the winner of this matchup.
New Talent
There were not a whole lot of big trades in season four for playoff teams to write about. Most of them were smaller trades for newer players or for less active guys. If I have to pick one I would say that the Orange County Otters tight end they received in trade from Las Vegas Steven O’sullivan is going to be the big impact player in the playoffs when they face Arizona in the Solis game.
Although he is only a rookie O’Sullivan has proven to be a high quality acquisition in the Otters high octane passing attack.
One thing that is great about O’Sullivan is his great hands. He has a very low drop rate compared to many other tight ends in the league, and that is something the Otters value. He might not get a lot of yards after the catch, but when it comes time to move the chains when they need to convert a 3rd and 4 the Otters know they can rely on O’Sullivan in the ASFC Championship. I expect him to have 8 catches on 10 targets for 60 yards and a touchdown while also doing well in the blocking game by tallying 5 pancakes and no sacks allowed.
Playoff Predictions
In the Otters vs Outlaws game we can expect the passing attack to dominate the offenses. Both teams have a strong rushing defense so we can expect them to try and focus on the the weakest part of the opposing defense and exploit the secondaries. Not that either team has a weak secondary, but it is not as strong as their front 7. The winner here is going to be the team that turns the ball over the least. I predict the otters to win led by Westfield and Boss with 3 TDs shared between them. The Outlaws will come close but will lose the shootout as the final score comes to 37-34
In the Liberty vs Wraiths game the teams couldn't be much more different. Both are led by less experienced signal callers, but the Wraiths have a highly skilled Akselsen leading the charge with his mobile skills. The Wraiths also have better wide receivers than their opponents. Meanwhile on defense the Liberty are the stronger team with a great front 7 and a solid secondary. Because of this it is difficult to determine who will come out on top. The Liberty will have to come up with a solid gameplan on defense to matchup against Bailey Cook and Eric Kennedy. The Wraiths will have to try and not let their opponent score too often so that they aren't constantly forced to try and score every possession. I think the away team gets the win here too with the Liberty walking out winners 24-17.
Finally we have the Ultimus game. Given that I predicted Liberty @ Otters we are left with a very difficult game for the Liberty to try and find success. They have constantly struggled against ASFC teams this season, and the Otters are no exception. Liberty's strong defense matches up well with the passing attack of Orange County, but will it be enough? Trying to match them point-for-point is an exercise in futility. The only way they could win would be to force turnovers and to play well on special teams, something they have proven is a strength. I expect the Liberty to put up a good fight but in a game winning drive Mike Boss seals the deal with a 50 yard completion to Bradley Westfield who gets tackled at the 5 and watch as Leroy Jenkins punches it in for the winning TD. Otters 49-42.
Hank Winchester (S25 - Current) - Scrub
Angus Winchester (S1-S12) - 4x Ultimus Champ - #2 Career Sacks - Hall of Fame
Cooter Bigsby (S14-S23) - S23 Ultimus Champ - #4 Career Yards - #4 Career TDs - 2x MVP - Hall of Fame