Playoff Predictions:
The AFSC will kick things off with the fourth straight match up between the Arizona Outlaws and the Orange County Otters. While Arizona, at home, is favored to win, the Otters have consistently played the Outlaws closer than the eventual Ultimus match up, and this is no exception. Expect a high-scoring game dominated by huge passing plays from both teams, as the Otters alternate being being sacked and exposing the weak secondary, and the Outlaws just consistently chipping away. In the NSFC, the Wraiths host the Liberty. This is the first time the Wraiths have had home field advantage in the playoffs, but I don’t think it will do them much good. I expect a mainly defensive battle dominated by rushing, with the Wraiths gaining more yards but struggling to get in the end zone and the Liberty getting a few lucky drives for the lead. This means that, most likely, the Liberty will face the Outlaws in Arizona. For the first time, though, I could see ANY playoff combination as a reality. One thing I don’t see changing is that the NSFC team (most likely the Liberty) will be on the road against the AFSC team (most likely the Outlaws), and the AFSC team will win in a one-sided victory.
Root For the Underdog:
As painful as it will be for the Wraiths, I don’t see them coming away with the win on Monday night. This is unfortunate, as they are the best NSFC team this year (not for the first time), and they finally have home field advantage. Unfortunately, the Liberty match up just too well against them. As a starting point, just look at the Season Four results. The two teams met in Week 8 and in Week 13, and the Liberty won BOTH of those matches with a combined score of 50-37. They highlight just what a good match Philadelphia is for Yellowknife. After all, Philly D has allowed an abysmal 25 points a game this season, yet only 18.5 against a playoff team? I think it comes down to passing. The Wraiths lack the speed to exploit Cushing’s only weakness as a DB, leaving Akselsen with only 2 TDs to 3 INTs in both matches combined. While Cushing only deflected 8 passes all season, THREE of them came in those two games. In addition, the Liberty offense just performs better against Yellowknife’s defense, scoring an extra 6.1 points per game. With those facts, combined with a MASSIVE update from Clifford Rove, not only are the Liberty able to win, I have them favored.
MVP:
The MVP is the playoffs, in my opinion, was Mike Boss. Yeah, I am going the easy route, but I spent about ten minutes debating between Robert Phelps and Bradley Westfield (I was leaning Phelps) before realizing that one person was responsible for the success of both of them. Mike Boss had two remarkable games against good teams. First he faced the #1 pass rush in the Arizona Outlaws, then the best CB in the league in Yellowknife Wraiths’ Dermot Lavelle. Despite that, though, the Otters leaned heavily on Boss, allowing 110 attempts over two games. Boss made the most of them, too, totaling over 900 yards. In the first game against Arizona, he passed 51 times, a seemingly unthinkable strategy considering the Outlaws had been beating more on the ground in the past. Somehow, despite frequent pressure, Boss managed zero interceptions against a team that had been his bane. He didn’t throw any touchdowns, but passing for over 400 yards on the road against the number one defense without turning it over allowed the Otters to win. Against Yellowknife, he passed for even more while getting in the end zone three times, outscoring the once best offense in the league.
Championship Review:
Before diving into the details, let me start by saying this was far and away the closest Ultimus matchup we’ve ever had. The previous three championships were decided by margins of and 23, 27, and 37. Spoiler alert: this one was decided by only a single possession.
To the game. The Otters kicked off and the Wraiths very quickly drove down the field and scored on a 32 yard touchdown pass to D.J. Law, acquired in a trade with the Yeti late in Season Three. After stalled drives by both teams, the Otters answered with a TD pass of their own to Westfield. A quick fumble gave the Otters back the ball, and they got their first lead of the game with a 28 yard FG. They would never lose that lead, though they would expand on the lead with a TD in the final minute of the half with a 35 yard TD pass, again to Westfield.
In the second half, the third quarter would be a draw as each team kicked a FG. The Wraiths would bring the game to a one touchdown lead with a field goal with 8:41 remaining, but the Wraiths only got one chance to tie it up and stalled on the drive, giving the Otters their first Ultimus Trophy.
The AFSC will kick things off with the fourth straight match up between the Arizona Outlaws and the Orange County Otters. While Arizona, at home, is favored to win, the Otters have consistently played the Outlaws closer than the eventual Ultimus match up, and this is no exception. Expect a high-scoring game dominated by huge passing plays from both teams, as the Otters alternate being being sacked and exposing the weak secondary, and the Outlaws just consistently chipping away. In the NSFC, the Wraiths host the Liberty. This is the first time the Wraiths have had home field advantage in the playoffs, but I don’t think it will do them much good. I expect a mainly defensive battle dominated by rushing, with the Wraiths gaining more yards but struggling to get in the end zone and the Liberty getting a few lucky drives for the lead. This means that, most likely, the Liberty will face the Outlaws in Arizona. For the first time, though, I could see ANY playoff combination as a reality. One thing I don’t see changing is that the NSFC team (most likely the Liberty) will be on the road against the AFSC team (most likely the Outlaws), and the AFSC team will win in a one-sided victory.
Root For the Underdog:
As painful as it will be for the Wraiths, I don’t see them coming away with the win on Monday night. This is unfortunate, as they are the best NSFC team this year (not for the first time), and they finally have home field advantage. Unfortunately, the Liberty match up just too well against them. As a starting point, just look at the Season Four results. The two teams met in Week 8 and in Week 13, and the Liberty won BOTH of those matches with a combined score of 50-37. They highlight just what a good match Philadelphia is for Yellowknife. After all, Philly D has allowed an abysmal 25 points a game this season, yet only 18.5 against a playoff team? I think it comes down to passing. The Wraiths lack the speed to exploit Cushing’s only weakness as a DB, leaving Akselsen with only 2 TDs to 3 INTs in both matches combined. While Cushing only deflected 8 passes all season, THREE of them came in those two games. In addition, the Liberty offense just performs better against Yellowknife’s defense, scoring an extra 6.1 points per game. With those facts, combined with a MASSIVE update from Clifford Rove, not only are the Liberty able to win, I have them favored.
MVP:
The MVP is the playoffs, in my opinion, was Mike Boss. Yeah, I am going the easy route, but I spent about ten minutes debating between Robert Phelps and Bradley Westfield (I was leaning Phelps) before realizing that one person was responsible for the success of both of them. Mike Boss had two remarkable games against good teams. First he faced the #1 pass rush in the Arizona Outlaws, then the best CB in the league in Yellowknife Wraiths’ Dermot Lavelle. Despite that, though, the Otters leaned heavily on Boss, allowing 110 attempts over two games. Boss made the most of them, too, totaling over 900 yards. In the first game against Arizona, he passed 51 times, a seemingly unthinkable strategy considering the Outlaws had been beating more on the ground in the past. Somehow, despite frequent pressure, Boss managed zero interceptions against a team that had been his bane. He didn’t throw any touchdowns, but passing for over 400 yards on the road against the number one defense without turning it over allowed the Otters to win. Against Yellowknife, he passed for even more while getting in the end zone three times, outscoring the once best offense in the league.
Championship Review:
Before diving into the details, let me start by saying this was far and away the closest Ultimus matchup we’ve ever had. The previous three championships were decided by margins of and 23, 27, and 37. Spoiler alert: this one was decided by only a single possession.
To the game. The Otters kicked off and the Wraiths very quickly drove down the field and scored on a 32 yard touchdown pass to D.J. Law, acquired in a trade with the Yeti late in Season Three. After stalled drives by both teams, the Otters answered with a TD pass of their own to Westfield. A quick fumble gave the Otters back the ball, and they got their first lead of the game with a 28 yard FG. They would never lose that lead, though they would expand on the lead with a TD in the final minute of the half with a 35 yard TD pass, again to Westfield.
In the second half, the third quarter would be a draw as each team kicked a FG. The Wraiths would bring the game to a one touchdown lead with a field goal with 8:41 remaining, but the Wraiths only got one chance to tie it up and stalled on the drive, giving the Otters their first Ultimus Trophy.