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*PLAYOFF ODDS! - Printable Version

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*PLAYOFF ODDS! - infinitempg - 11-05-2019

So I ran 100 test sims for each of the 5 Week 13 Games, and here are the results*:
Code:
OVER 100 SIMS:

COL @ SJS +5.86, COL = 69%
NOLA @ CHI +6.36, NOLA = 70%
OCO @ BAL -3.57, BAL = 58%
PHI @ AUS -8.75, AUS = 72%
YKW @ ARI +0.16, YKW = 53%
* I am not responsible for you doing badly on predictions Smile

Using these results, we can determine a number of probabilities for the playoffs.

NSFC Playoffs
The first and second seeds are locked up by YKW (11-1) and BAL (6-6) respectively. YKW also have HFA locked up.

The third seed is between COL (4-8), CHI (4-8), and PHI (3-9).

COL are the 3rd seed if:
  • 69.00% - COL win
  • 15.62% - COL lose (31%) + CHI lose (70%) + PHI lose (72%)
CHI are the third seed if:
  • 9.30% - COL lose (31%) + CHI win (30%)
COL and PHI go to Points For tiebreaker if:
  • 6.08% - COL lose (31%) + CHI lose (70%) + PHI win (28%)
PHI have a 12 point advantage in Points For.

[Image: k9fbagn.png]
Gaussian Estimation for points scored in W13

[Image: ubSzlyG.png]
Convolution of the two Gaussians to find the difference of the points

Testing shows that there is a 44.0% chance that COL score 12 or more points compared to what PHI score, therefore of this 6.08%:
  • 3.40% - PHI is 3rd seed
  • 2.68% - COL is 3rd seed
Summary:
  • 87.30% - COL is 3rd seed
  • 9.30% - CHI is 3rd seed
  • 3.40% - PHI is 3rd seed
ASFC Playoffs
The first and second seeds are locked up by OCO (9-3) and ARI (8-4) respectively. (OCO are 6-2 in conference, ARI are 5-3) They would also have HFA locked up in respective order should the YKW be eliminated.

The third seed is between AUS (6-6) and NOLA (5-7). SJS are eliminated at (4-8).

AUS are 3rd seed if:
  • 72.00% - AUS win
  • 8.40% - AUS lose + NOLA lose
AUS and NOLA go to Points For tiebreaker if:
  • 19.60% - AUS lose + NOLA win
AUS have a 78 point advantage in Points For.

[Image: n8TRPJr.png]
Gaussian Estimation for points scored in W13

[Image: yx8uVSZ.png]
Convolution of the two Gaussians to find the difference of the points

Testing shows that there is a 0.000000141% chance that NOLA scores 78 or more points compared to AUS, therefore of this 19.6%:
  • 19.59999724% - AUS is 3rd seed
  • 0.00000276% - NOLA is 3rd seed
Summary:
  • 99.99999724% - AUS is 3rd seed
  • 0.00000276% - NOLA is 3rd seed


*PLAYOFF ODDS! - Dylandeluxe - 11-05-2019

This is top notch holy shit.

I knew our chances were bad but holy shit NOLA

*PLAYOFF ODDS! - iamslm22 - 11-05-2019

So you’re telling me there’s a chance

*PLAYOFF ODDS! - Raven - 11-05-2019

Numbers

*PLAYOFF ODDS! - TropicaliaCC - 11-05-2019

I'm nerding out so hard over this article

*PLAYOFF ODDS! - ValorX77 - 11-05-2019

Nola is pretty much mathematically eliminated, PHI still alive, great writeup

*PLAYOFF ODDS! - Bigred1580 - 11-05-2019

(11-05-2019, 02:24 PM)infinitempg Wrote:So I ran 100 test sims for each of the 5 Week 13 Games, and here are the results*:
[/LIST]

Nerd

*PLAYOFF ODDS! - ValorX77 - 11-05-2019

(11-05-2019, 06:49 PM)Bigred1580 Wrote:Nerd
You literally run the sim 200 times for a single game.
Who’s the nerd now?

*PLAYOFF ODDS! - infinitempg - 11-05-2019

(11-05-2019, 01:05 PM)ValorX77 Wrote:You literally run the sim 200 times for a single game.
Who’s the nerd now?

i do 250

*PLAYOFF ODDS! - flyeaglesfly29 - 11-05-2019

This is awesome and very well done!