So I ran 100 test sims for each of the 5 Week 13 Games, and here are the results*:
* I am not responsible for you doing badly on predictions
Using these results, we can determine a number of probabilities for the playoffs.
NSFC Playoffs
The first and second seeds are locked up by (11-1) and (6-6) respectively. also have HFA locked up.
The third seed is between (4-8), (4-8), and (3-9).
are the 3rd seed if:
Gaussian Estimation for points scored in W13
Convolution of the two Gaussians to find the difference of the points
Testing shows that there is a 44.0% chance that score 12 or more points compared to what score, therefore of this 6.08%:
The first and second seeds are locked up by (9-3) and (8-4) respectively. ( are 6-2 in conference, are 5-3) They would also have HFA locked up in respective order should the be eliminated.
The third seed is between (6-6) and (5-7). are eliminated at (4-8).
are 3rd seed if:
Gaussian Estimation for points scored in W13
Convolution of the two Gaussians to find the difference of the points
Testing shows that there is a 0.000000141% chance that NOLA scores 78 or more points compared to , therefore of this 19.6%:
Code:
OVER 100 SIMS:
COL @ SJS +5.86, COL = 69%
NOLA @ CHI +6.36, NOLA = 70%
OCO @ BAL -3.57, BAL = 58%
PHI @ AUS -8.75, AUS = 72%
YKW @ ARI +0.16, YKW = 53%
Using these results, we can determine a number of probabilities for the playoffs.
NSFC Playoffs
The first and second seeds are locked up by (11-1) and (6-6) respectively. also have HFA locked up.
The third seed is between (4-8), (4-8), and (3-9).
are the 3rd seed if:
- 69.00% - win
- 15.62% - lose (31%) + lose (70%) + lose (72%)
- 9.30% - lose (31%) + win (30%)
- 6.08% - lose (31%) + lose (70%) + win (28%)
Gaussian Estimation for points scored in W13
Convolution of the two Gaussians to find the difference of the points
Testing shows that there is a 44.0% chance that score 12 or more points compared to what score, therefore of this 6.08%:
- 3.40% - is 3rd seed
- 2.68% - is 3rd seed
- 87.30% - is 3rd seed
- 9.30% - is 3rd seed
- 3.40% - is 3rd seed
The first and second seeds are locked up by (9-3) and (8-4) respectively. ( are 6-2 in conference, are 5-3) They would also have HFA locked up in respective order should the be eliminated.
The third seed is between (6-6) and (5-7). are eliminated at (4-8).
are 3rd seed if:
- 72.00% - win
- 8.40% - lose + lose
- 19.60% - lose + win
Gaussian Estimation for points scored in W13
Convolution of the two Gaussians to find the difference of the points
Testing shows that there is a 0.000000141% chance that NOLA scores 78 or more points compared to , therefore of this 19.6%:
- 19.59999724% - is 3rd seed
- 0.00000276% - is 3rd seed
- 99.99999724% - is 3rd seed
- 0.00000276% - is 3rd seed