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+---- Thread: *S22 forum activity tier ranking (/showthread.php?tid=19490)
*S22 forum activity tier ranking - Troen - 02-27-2020
Introduction and Background
In my continuing quest to boldly go where no one has gone before split infinitives complain that I can't figure out how to do strikethrough formatting come up with numbers to quantify user activity, I tried to look at the S22 class. My goal when setting out was to come up with an activity score algorithm, to score everyone in the S22 class with that algorithm, and then to do a mock draft. During the process of trying to come up with a scoring system, though, I decided that activity fell more into a tiered system where different individuals in the same tier looked very similar to the 'objective' measurements* I was taking. These tiers I do think will give a strong suggestion of draft ordering (with the older accounts tier as wild cards) but I don't think the measurements I made can help order draft desireability within the tier very well - I think that comes down to other things like team needs, discord activity, interviews, and other interactions with the user that aren't quantified in the forum software. DSFL GMs probably have already gone through all these players in at least as thorough as a fashion as I have, but I'm hoping this could be useful to the users in understanding what they can do to look better on paper to everyone who looks at their forum accounts.
I should note that I'm also assuming that the more stuff you do and the more you do it correctly, the more draft-relevant that makes you. For example, I considered correctness of filling out an update page as a factor since I figure that filling one out correctly shows that you're either able to read the instructions well, able to correctly find examples and apply them to your own tasks, and/or able to get help from other users on how to do it correctly. So, a well-formatted update page leads me to the presumption that you'll be able to do other league tasks correctly and thus can be counted on to continue doing that slightly more than someone who didn't have a well-formatted page and therefore might be more likely to make mistakes in the future. I also assumed that doing more TPE or cash activities is a good thing but I think that's less of an assumption and more of an observation.
*: Data collection note - I copied every S22 player from the TPE tracker on 2/24 and then looked at forum activity. Specifically, I measured the presence of an update page, its correctness, the claiming or not of the weekly activity check and first free training, the creation or not of a wiki page for the player, number of rookie tasks claimed, if an account was created before 2/16 (aka before the r/nfl post), if a player had created forum content beyond the rookie tasks, and if a player had returned more than 3 days after account creation (or more than 1 day after for accounts created after 2/19). Account observations were done between 2/24 and 2/27 inclusive because oh boy did I have to look at a lot of forum pages to get the info here. There are certainly some accounts which have made changes since when I created this - at least 3 people who didn't have update pages on 2/24 had created ones by 2/27 - but I'm not going to try and correct for that automatically. But, if you're on this list in a tier you think isn't right, feel free to DM me and I'll re-classify you based on updated info.
Aside
I've been looking over a bunch of new player update pages and I've noticed a few patterns of mistakes that seem like good areas to educate people on:
1. Multiple posts in their update thread (rather than editing one post until an updater approves changes)
2. Claiming done but not graded tasks, especially the 6 rookie tasks (rather than waiting for the appropriate grader or claim thread)
3. Not having links to the appropriate claim location (and instead just having text like 'activity thread +2')
4. Mixing pending tasks with done tasks - the recommendation is to either have a clearly distinct section for all pending tasks or to only add them to the thread when done.
Users making these mistakes will probably eventually get informed that what they did is a mistake by an updater, but with the long time between the r/nfl recruitment post and when an updater will look over offseason updates, I think that there's room to work to educate new users better. I'm not sure how, especially since I think the different issues have different reason, but I'm going to take the classic 'point out a problem without helping to solve it' for the time being.
This section is relevant to this post because I used 'ability to create a correct update thread' as a factor in developing user tiers. Specifically, I graded updeate threads using the following rubric starting with a base score of 1 point:
* -.25 each for claimed task with no links, multiple posts in thread, claiming ungraded activity
* -1.25 - update page with no updates (score becomes -0.25 - this category ignores any formatting other penalties)
* -2 - no update page at all
* Note: No penalty for explicit pending section - I asked on discord it sounded like the updater who responded was fine with this
Tiers
(The top tier isn't 'S' I promise)
As I said above, I found certain collections of users which had similar characteristics.
1. The Recreates and other people from before the r/nfl post tier (32/265 players)
The S22 players with forum account creation dates on or before 2/15 had their own complixities between recreated players, players who were UFA pickups during S20, normal referrals, etc. but I'm just bagging them up as one group and saying 'you mostly know what you're getting into with these people'. The new players (those created after 2/1 or so) are more similar to the rest of the new accounts than those created in 2019 or before, but in the interests of daving myself time I just put every older account in this bucket. That also conveniently put everyone who had completed a TPE update in this category.
I'm making the potentially unfounded assumption that people who came here because of reddit hype are more homogenous in activity patterns than those who didn't come here by that means and so that could clearly be wrong. However, I felt like this was the simplest option.
2. The Forum content creators tier (55/265 players)
Key distinguisher: This tier of newer players are those who have created additional forum content beyond what's listed in the rookie tasks. Anyone who created their own media article is here but I considered filling out the NSFL S21 mock draft to be insufficient. Users who responsed to the S20 Ultiminus week thread I graded inconsistently depending on day and by the time I realized that I wasn't going to go back.
Other characteristics: 2 users in this tier didn't have an update page, oddly. The vast majority had done at least 4 of the rookie tasks (and more broadly, tasks 4 and 5 were the parts most often not completed). The majority created wiki pages but a couple (besidesthose with no update page) didn't actually claim weekly activity or first free training.
3. The Dilligentsia tier (4/265 players)
Key distinguisher: This tier of newer players are those who diligently did everything that's called out in the rookie guides, ie the 6 rookie tasks, but have not taken the next step into creating content. One note: I tried to not count signing up for twitter as creating content because I didn't want to have to map twitter names to account names, so some users in this tier may be on twitter and writing there.
Other characteristics: Every user I saw in this category has returned to the forum after creation and had an update page. Wiki creation was mixed. Every player had an update page.
4. The Rookie tasks are hard OK tier (24/265 players)
Key distinguisher: This tier of newer players did some but not all of the rookie tasks. The two most often incompleted tasks were #4 (media entry or graphics post) followed by #5 (complete a point task).
Other characteristics: Every user in this tier had an update page, though a couple hadn't claimed anything there despite doing the rookie tasks for the weekly activity and creating an update page. I personally think that's a pretty good clue but anyway. Most of the accounts in this tier have returned since creation but a couple had not. "Returned since creation" seems like a very important consideration on who to draft.
5. The I can read directions and/or copy paste properly tier (27/265 players)
Key distinguisher: This tier of newer players has an update page with no issues (which is to say, has at least one TPE claim where the claim links to a cause, the user didn't claim any ungraded tasks, there was a single post that was getting updated and not multiple posts, etc.)
Other characteristics: All but one of this tier claimed the weekly activity and first free training activities with one user missing the free training claim. Most (85%) have been back since creation. Only 1 created a wiki page.
6. The Update pages have a format all their own tier (55/265 players)
Key distinguisher: This tier of newer players has an update page with one or more issues. Looking back to the update page details aside above, they had a score on my rubric which was below 1 but above 0.
Other characteristics: Almost all (96.4%) claimed a weekly activity task while more claimed the free training. 7.3% created a wiki page. A fair amount (63.6%) have been back after forum account creation.
7. The Technically update pages don't have to be updated tier (8/265 players)
Key distinguisher: These users created an update thread but don't have any updates in it. Strictly speaking that's fine I guess but I feel like it misses the point so these people are a distinct tier.
Other characteristics: Most of this tier didn't post in the activity or free training threads, but one person did. More than half have returned since acount creation.
8. The There's still hope tier (22/265 players)
Key distinguisher: These users created an account and have come back to the site either after the 20th (if they created on 2/16 or 2/17) or at least one day after their day of creation (if they created on 2/18 or later). Since this group of users has had continued forum activity, I figure they might come back after getting drafted and create updates, especially if a GM can woo them well.
9. The There's probably no hope tier (38/265 players)
Key distinguisher: These users created an account and have not come back to the site either after the 20th (if they created on 2/16 or 2/17) or at least one day after their day of creation (if they created on 2/18 or later). I assume low odds of these people coming back at this point but I'm always happy to be surprised.
10. The Created after I copied names out of the TPE tracker "tier"
For obvious reasons, I didn't look at users that I wasn't aware of and so anyone new won't be listed in this article. Feel free to DM me and I can look over your profile and add you wherever.
As I said above, I think that tiers 2-9 roughly correspond with draftability/interest. Tier 1 is much less predictable - eg some users in that group are major active players, while others had no posts for a year until recreation. Oter interactions such as discord activity, forum DMs, etc. are also not captured here and obviously a GM talking to a player and getting information on their activity plans gives a much more detailed picture than just looking at raw forum stats. Overall I do think that the sorted average draft position of each tier will end up matching my ordering, but we'll have to wait until next week to see if that supposition holds true.
Compare/contrast
Isidore94 posted a DSFL draft active player list article a bit before this, so I thought it would be interesting to call out players he mentioned. Names bolded below were on his list. Every player he mentioned is covered in this article.
(And my parents weren't having a stroke when they named me, I legally changed my name during college)
GivePlz names
OK shut up and paste names Troen
(Names are sorted by position and then roughly alphabetized by first name)
1. The Recreates and other people from before the r/nfl post tier
Jonathan Altidor, Cornerback
Thubba Bumper, Cornerback
Thunder Cat, Cornerback
Tyler Oles JR, Cornerback
Danielle Hunter, Defensive End
Ismael Sanchez, Defensive End
Loin Stake, Defensive End
Kade Hines, Defensive Tackle
Phat Boi, Defensive Tackle
Sam Sidekick, Kicker/Punter
Le Kick, Kicker/Punter
Devaunte Sackpieder, Linebacker
George ’Corpse Grinder’ Fisher, Linebacker
Stanislaw Koniecpolski, Linebacker
Byron Dolls, Offensive Line
Ben Slothlisberger, Quarterback
Colby Jack, Quarterback
Jim Waters, Quarterback
Monterey "Monty" Jack, Quarterback
Swift Willy, Quarterback
Jacoby Batista, Running Back
Jamar Lackson, Running Back
Troy Pressing, Running Back
White Goodman, Running Back
Calum Auron, Safety
LiterallyJust A. Hexagon, Safety
Jeffrey Phillips, Tight End
DeSean Hill, Wide Receiver
Garfield Despacito Jr., Wide Receiver
Mike Lee, Wide Receiver
Terrell Brister Jr., Wide Receiver
Thomas Passmann, Wide Receiver
2. The Forum content creators tier
Alexander Hamilton II, Cornerback
Andrew Witten, Cornerback
Bo Jangles, Cornerback
Brandon Booker, Cornerback
Cadillac Harris, Cornerback
Chester Sweets, Cornerback
Eldrick Avery, Cornerback
Ozamataz Buckshank, Cornerback
Xaq Schiaparelli, Cornerback
Zamir Kehla, Cornerback
D’Brickashaw Cannon, Defensive End
James Cho, Defensive End
Mario VonPebbles, Defensive End
Sandro Ryeu, Defensive End
Slinky Claxton, Defensive End
Troen Egghands, Defensive End
Clayton Jones, Defensive Tackle
Denarius Krackle, Defensive Tackle
Deshun Jones, Defensive Tackle
Godrick Fallstrum, Defensive Tackle
Magnus Rikiya, Defensive Tackle
Mo "Mamba" Magic, Defensive Tackle
Octavio Clemente, Defensive Tackle
Tristan Gronlie, Defensive Tackle
Derred de Ville, Linebacker
Johnnie McCartney, Linebacker
Lawrence Bass, Linebacker
Lloyd Collins, Linebacker
Mark Radson, Linebacker
Sean O’Donohue, Linebacker
Bruce Buckley, Offensive Line
Jorcher Minor, Offensive Line
Tommy Sacamano, Offensive Line
Acura Skyline, Running Back
Kevin Fakon, Running Back
Kichwa Jones, Running Back
Tatsu Nakamura, Running Back
Buck Thornton, Safety
Eric Barlow, Safety
Jimmy Cooks, Safety
Johnny Hellzapoppin, Safety
Matt "Son of Havoc" Cross, Safety
Quinn Hughes, Safety
Sebastian Vettel, Safety
Shawn Dawkins, Safety
Wesley Eriksen, Safety
Daniel George, Tight End
Donatello Arrabiata, Tight End
Heath Evans, Tight End
Eddie Jeeta, Wide Receiver
Kevin Koh, Wide Receiver
Michael Witheblock, Wide Receiver
Susan Cash.Jr, Wide Receiver
William Alexander, Wide Receiver
William Lim, Wide Receiver
3. The Dilligentsia tier
A.J. Warren, Defensive End
Gabriel Graves, Defensive End
Luke Skywalker, Quarterback
Tan Johnson, Wide Receiver
4. The Rookie tasks are hard OK tier
Bayden Brosley, Cornerback
JR Maverick, Cornerback
Ayden Bayden, Defensive End
Simeon Works, Defensive End
Big Edd, Defensive Tackle
Leland Breeland, Defensive Tackle
Matthew Curran, Defensive Tackle
Nuniq Annastesia, Defensive Tackle
Buster Holiday, Linebacker
Calvin McMann, Linebacker
Fawn Dillmiballs, Linebacker
Kal Solarin, Linebacker
Raiden Briggs, Linebacker
Samuel L Sackson Sr., Linebacker
Calvin Golladay, Offensive Line
Sylvester Berlin, Offensive Line
Suleiman Ramza, Quarterback
Aaron Feels, Running Back
J.B. Apollo, Running Back
Richard Gilbert, Running Back
Winston Bragg, Running Back
Cosmo Kramer, Safety
Hamish MacAndrew, Safety
Cal Cutta, Wide Receiver
5. The I can read directions and/or copy paste properly tier
Ben Stackinpaper, Cornerback
Rickety Cricket, Cornerback
Chauncey Morrison, Defensive End
Rainman Legends, Defensive End
Slim Pickens, Defensive End
Chad Zhao, Defensive Tackle
Lucas Faucher, Defensive Tackle
Paul Novotny, Defensive Tackle
Bobby Boomski, Kicker/Punter
Pseudo QB, Kicker/Punter
Brendan Lanier, Linebacker
Jason Kreuscher, Linebacker
Leeroy Jenkins, Linebacker
Raheem Bird, Linebacker
Samuel Miller, Linebacker
Joey McCabe, Offensive Line
Haha Mango-Panda, Quarterback
A-Aron Balakae, Safety
Abbas Muhammad, Safety
C.D. Waldo, Safety
Hengwei Luo, Safety
Jordan Davis, Safety
Douglas MacArthur, Tight End
John Doe, Tight End
Montgomery Mantooth, Tight End
Von Hayes, Tight End
Ronan Briscoe, Wide Receiver
6. The Update pages have a format all their own tier
Carlos Woods, Cornerback
Colt Mendoza, Cornerback
Matt Krause, Cornerback
Ricky Boomhauer, Cornerback
Valor Gilmore, Cornerback
Buster Brownce, Defensive End
Danshawn Jenkins, Defensive End
DeShawn Jones, Defensive End
Farrior Deschain, Defensive End
Frank Ngyuen, Defensive End
Jimmy Frackerson, Defensive End
Landon Moore, Defensive End
Meep Meep, Defensive End
Nathan Bourne, Defensive End
Patrik Money, Defensive End
Will-Barry Underground, Defensive End
Anthony DiNapoli, Defensive Tackle
Archideld Bonzales, Defensive Tackle
Bucky Laurence, Defensive Tackle
Cam "Burrito" Burto, Defensive Tackle
David Banner, Defensive Tackle
Joe Montania, Defensive Tackle
John Nesbitt, Defensive Tackle
Tony Baloney, Defensive Tackle
Matthew McDairmid, Kicker/Punter
Cadillac Mitchell, Linebacker
Chudds Whittaker, Linebacker
Daniel Ross, Linebacker
Eugene McEvan, Linebacker
Fatso Wombat, Linebacker
Leo Browning, Linebacker
Nat Wright, Linebacker
Nicolas Stone, Linebacker
Sawyer Brutalitops, Linebacker
Tom Thorne, Linebacker
Fernando Cruz, Offensive Line
Julius Augustus, Offensive Line
Toshihide Matsumoto, Offensive Line
Anthony De Luca, Running Back
Da Owl, Running Back
Julio Tirtawidjaja, Running Back
Streetlamp LeMoose, Running Back
Sulu Candles, Running Back
Zed Keppler, Running Back
Joshua Vanger, Safety
Magnus Valdyr, Safety
Michael Lee, Safety
Thom Shaylor, Safety
Cameron Tova, Tight End
Henry Sigurdsson, Tight End
Ike Oscar, Tight End
Nick Marksman, Tight End
Rondo Jones, Tight End
Titus Lincoln, Tight End
Zee Rechs, Tight End
7. The Technically update pages don't have to be updated tier
Alex Ingram, Cornerback
Hank Steel, Defensive Tackle
Seth Lindsey, Kicker/Punter
Michael Smydzyck, Linebacker
Gabe Nickson, Offensive Line
Dean Winchester, Safety
Zakary Duke, Safety
Colin Miller, Tight End
8. The There's still hope tier
BooBoo Rodgers, Cornerback
Cody Martin, Cornerback
Jay Signs, Cornerback
Rico Martinez, Cornerback
Tyron Shields, Cornerback
Xavier O’Doyle, Cornerback
Anthony Brewer, Defensive End
Jacob Small, Kicker/Punter
Hiram Abiff, Linebacker
Julius Andersson, Linebacker
Ronnie "The Bone Crusher" Schultz, Linebacker
Allen Spooner, Quarterback
Colin Vance, Quarterback
Sim SnowBow, Quarterback
Patrick Hardy, Safety
Seth Goepferich, Tight End
Shawn Ansari, Tight End
Tristian Hex, Tight End
Bobby Black, Wide Receiver
Daymond Brooks, Wide Receiver
Friedrich Vequain, Wide Receiver
Logan Marshall, Wide Receiver
9. The There's probably no hope tier
Jacob Caine, Cornerback
Kennedy Cannon, Cornerback
Malcom Jenkins, Cornerback
Nick Jones, Cornerback
Justice Wolfe, Defensive End
Lee Jordan, Defensive Tackle
Swlane Train, Defensive Tackle
Cashrinski blödenheimer, Kicker/Punter
Ronan McDonagh, Kicker/Punter
Willis Cannon, Kicker/Punter
Buster Nelson, Linebacker
Caloe Peara, Linebacker
Cavalier Craighorn, Quarterback
Dude Doggo, Quarterback
Evan Riley, Quarterback
Patrick Holding, Running Back
Vince Waterhouse, Running Back
Amadeus Green, Safety
Bartholomew Castor, Safety
Dan Jackson, Safety
Ed Ball, Safety
Elias Ziegler, Safety
Matt Elam, Safety
Moe Willis, Safety
Montgomery Burns, Safety
Pierre Voodoo, Safety
Brent Blackmon, Tight End
Craig Royal, Tight End
Perry King, Tight End
Regan Meynell, Tight End
Bryant Moreland, Wide Receiver
Curious George, Wide Receiver
Donovan Smith, Wide Receiver
Henry Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, Wide Receiver
Nathan Bigelow, Wide Receiver
Scott Scott, Wide Receiver
Steve Alvarado, Wide Receiver
Tyler Curtis, Wide Receiver
Compare/contrast evaluation and followups
I believe that Isidore94 and I arrived at somewhat similar conclusions - around half of my tier 2 players were on his list while none of my tiers 7-9 were mentioned. That suggests that my methodology is somewhat in line with what other people are considering useful activity.
As I vaguely mentioned earlier, I do have plans to try and look at draft positions vs. tier after the DSFL draft is over. I'd like to also take the next step to tie this to my TPE claiming work and look at tier vs. TPE claimed after the upcoming DSFL season is over, but that's like 2 months from now so I'm not promising anything.
Bonus: Top 10 S22 players by name (in alphabetical order)
(Mostly chosen on personal comedy value)
* Acura Skyline
* Ben Slothlisberger
* Ben Stackinpaper
* Justice Wolfe
* LiterallyJust A. Hexagon
* Pseudo QB (who is a kicker)
* Samuel L. Sackson Sr.
* Slim Pickens
* Streetlamp LeMoose
* Thomas Passman (who is somehow not a QB)
And this year's award for most likely 69th pick goes to Fawn Dillmiballs
*S22 forum activity tier ranking - Duilio05 - 02-27-2020
This is great stuff, and can atest that this info would be really helpful as a DSFL GM, if I were a DSFL GM instead of a NSFL GM. Love the cross reference to other already posted forum media.
One thing that would easy to add in and probably help build context for everyone, not just GMs is a tally of how many players are in each tier.
*S22 forum activity tier ranking - Troen - 02-27-2020
(02-27-2020, 08:29 AM)Duilio05 Wrote:One thing that would easy to add in and probably help build context for everyone, not just GMs is a tally of how many players are in each tier.
Good call, I'll get that right out
Edit:
1. The Recreates and other people from before the r/nfl post tier (32/265 players)
2. The Forum content creators tier (55/265 players)
3. The Dilligentsia tier (4/265 players)
4. The Rookie tasks are hard OK tier (24/265 players)
5. The I can read directions and/or copy paste properly tier (27/265 players)
6. The Update pages have a format all their own tier (55/265 players)
7. The Technically update pages don't have to be updated tier (8/265 players)
8. The There's still hope tier (22/265 players)
9. The There's probably no hope tier (38/265 players)
*S22 forum activity tier ranking - Duilio05 - 02-27-2020
(02-27-2020, 10:32 AM)Troen Wrote:Good call, I'll get that right out
Edit:
1. The Recreates and other people from before the r/nfl post tier (32/265 players)
2. The Forum content creators tier (55/265 players)
3. The Dilligentsia tier (4/265 players)
4. The Rookie tasks are hard OK tier (24/265 players)
5. The I can read directions and/or copy paste properly tier (27/265 players)
6. The Update pages have a format all their own tier (55/265 players)
7. The Technically update pages don't have to be updated tier (8/265 players)
8. The There's still hope tier (22/265 players)
9. The There's probably no hope tier (38/265 players)
That's incredible. From tiers 1-3 alone, that's almost a full ten rounds for the NSFL Draft. Then another 5 rounds of actives even if half of the players from tiers 4-7 go inactive. For context the NSFL Draft tomorrow is only about 10 rounds total.
*S22 forum activity tier ranking - Troen - 02-27-2020
Yeah, this year's looking to be a wild one!
*S22 forum activity tier ranking - AL_GRINGO - 02-27-2020
This is the type of stuff that GMs can use to builds dynasties. Great work!
*S22 forum activity tier ranking - Memento Mori - 02-27-2020
Well researched, well written and it has my player in it. 10/10
*S22 forum activity tier ranking - Lightnoir - 02-27-2020
This is a great way to rank and organize data, great job. I always look for me and the guys in my position around me, and there are 9 safeties in tier 2 before tapering off as you go down. Theres gonna be some decent competition at that position it seems.