*Predicting S22 Week 10 using Elo

*Predicting S22 Week 10 using Elo - Printable Version

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*Predicting S22 Week 10 using Elo - IthicaHawk - 05-14-2020

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

For previous weeks Elo posts see here:

For additional stat based content see here:

The greatest team in the history of the NSFL, A video report

Week 9 is over and after three instances of Scorigami last week, the league lets itself down and records not one original score this week. Poor show.
Our predictions are back on track after two difficult weeks as we got 5/6 matchups correct taking us back up to around 70% on the season overall. The only matchup we predicted wrong was the Defeat of SaberCats by Second Line. It was such a marginal game according to our predictions, we gave SaberCats just a 51.95% chance of winning it. Unfortunately for them, it was not to be. Second Line, on the other hand hold onto their #2 spot and are back within a single match of #1 once again. SaberCats, despite the loss, hold onto their spot in the top 4 as Yeti continue to drop points. Yeti are now just 3 points ahead of #6 Copperheads who are threatening to move into the top 5.

Not much movement this week at all however, gaps narrowed, leads were cut but only 4 teams actually moved, all in the lower half of the table.

The weekly rankings are as follows:

1(=) OCO

1,721.87
2(=) NOLA

1,672.92
3(=) YKW

1,646.69
4(=) SJS

1,538.99
5(=) COL

1,509.24
6(=) AUS

1,506.82
7(+1) PHI

1,459.45
8(-1) HON

1,456.40
9(+1) SAR

1,452.64
10(-1) ARI

1,391.39
11(=) BAL

1,367.75
12(=) CHI

1,242.91

Week 10

CHI

Most likely this seasons toiletbowl game. The 1-8 Butchers travel to Baltimore to face the 1-8 Hawks. Hawks still have a solid 125 Elo lead over the Butchers despite their season so far and, coupled with Home Field Advantage, we expect them to win this week, giving them 74.89% chance.

YKW

The expansion team battle is back on as the Sailfish victory last week plus Hahalua loss puts Sailfish backwithin 4 points of taking the lead from Hahalua. A win here over the Wraiths would give them a big boost and almost certainly put them infront of Hahalua no matter what they do. It'll be tough, the Wraiths are in 3rd place and a solid team. We give the Wraiths 67.76% chance to win.

HON

Copperheads are on the rise at the moment, having reached 11th position in week 8 they're now up at 6th place and just 3 points away from taking 5th. Meanwhile, Hahalua would like a win here to keep the pressure on the Sailfish. Copperheads have the home field advantage and we estimate they have 66.03% chance of winning.

PHI

What's happened with Yeti? From the loft heights of 5-0 to the middling plateu of 5-4. Yeti need a win here to avoid dropping out of the top 5, maybe even the top 6 depending how the other teams do next week. They're still a stronger team than Liberty and do have that important home field advantage so 65.94% chance they arrest their decent this week.

NOLA

Big game. A win by at least three points will put Second Line at the top of the tables, knocking Otters off the #1 spot they've held since week 3. It'll be a hard one for sure, not only are Otters a dominant team at 8-1 but Second Line have had a few miss-steps this season leading to some awkward losses. Second Line are the road team here so it really is an uphill battle. That's why we're giving Otters the advantage here with 65.83% odds they hold onto their #1 spot.

SJS

SaberCats are good, Outlaws are not. The SaberCats entered the season in #11 place and, with the exception of the Otters (who went #2 to #1 and then stayed there), they are the only team who have not gone down a position in the tables all season. If they move, it's always up. They're most likely not going to move up this week as there is a 108 point gulf between them and the #3 Wraiths but they can certainly look to close that gap and be in a position to break into the top 3 in a week or two. A win here gives them a solid base to mount their top 3 push in the closing weeks of the season. THey have a 61.67% chance to win as they do have to face Outlaws on the road.

Summary

CHI

74.89%

67.76%

66.03%

65.94%

65.83%

61.67%

Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~70% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.