01-06-2023, 06:40 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-07-2023, 08:38 AM by Aneeqs. Edited 2 times in total.)
Hey all, you may remember my shot in the dark at preseason IDP rankings for ISFL fantasy this season, or my quick update post after week 1. Originally I had intended to just write up some IDP observations at the end of the season as a follow up, but I have severe Friday brain and have already accomplished more work than I expected to today so may as well make a quick checkup on how fantasy IDP is going for the enigmatic defensive line position.
DT/DE Original observations:
DT/DE Updated observations:
Current Points Leaders:
Nothing has changed for the two star DTs since the week 1 update. Marciano still shuffles back and forth between NT and RE in 3-4 and 3-3-5 formations while McTurtle continues to fill in purely as the Outlaws' RE. Neither has anyone of note beside them on the D Line, though both have pretty good LBs lining up behind them. Similarly, nothing has changed for Harley Andrews, who continues to line up purely as an ILB for Sarasota. Not surprisingly, Andrews is vastly outscoring the rest of the DEs as he has the benefit of LB scoring.
After the top 3 is where this starts to get interesting. Strictly speaking, Lennay Kekua is the highest remaining TPE defensive lineman for the Sailfish once you account for Andrews playing as a LB. However, Kekua's TPE lead over DE Mrs "Stacks" McHits is vanishingly thin. It's really more accurate to say that they're equals in terms of TPE. Despite this, Kekua has more than doubled McHits' fantasy points on the season. What's more, one of the members of that 4 way tie in 9th is Sarasota's other DT, Mistah Freddy. Freddy isn't even particularly close to Kekua and McHits in TPE, yet his production vastly outpaces McHits. At a glance, this would suggest that DTs simply have an easier time scoring fantasy points than DEs (likely due to size alone, if I had to guess).
Supporting this idea are the #5 and #6 ranked DL on the season, Joey Din and Daron Arnold. In theory, both fit the mold established by Marciano and McTurtle; they both are the clear top TPE defensive lineman on their teams with no real competition for the title, and they both have solid LB corps lining up behind them. However, despite enjoying essentially the same setup, both DEs have barely accrued half the points of the leading DTs, and both trail Kekua as well (albeit barely). Diving even deeper, Din's DT teammate Carly Rae Jensen is one of the members of the 4 way tie for 9th despite trailing Din substantially in TPE. Just looking at the top 6 fantasy defensive linemen so far this season, it would appear my initial observation was mostly true; 3-4/3-3-5 DTs do indeed have an easier time scoring fantasy points than 3-4/3-3-5 DEs, though not necessarily for the reasons I originally expected.
Of course, as soon as we exit the top 6 scorers things get dicey with that assumption. Rocco Blade is a DE for Berlin, and fairly substantially trails Fire Salamanders DT Nathan Meaghor in TPE. Despite this, Blade sits at the #7 DL on the season while Meaghor trails distantly with only 24.0 points. Diving into the 4 way tie for 9th, Honolulu's Kellan Frost has also scored 32.0 fantasy points this season despite being a DE in a 3-4 defense, and that situation has none of the hallmarks that the top players seem to have in common (although the Hahalua's general low TPE numbers may be adding to the randomness of the sim).
The one conclusion I cannot adequately address right now is the status of 4-3 defensive linemen for fantasy purposes. The only high TPE 4-3 defensive front in the league is New Orleans, and they're in a bit of a weird situation. Somehow DT Charles Chapman has managed to be the highest scoring member of the group despite not even being the highest TPE DT on the team (that title belongs to Solace Avenger). At the same time, Chapman does boast more TPE than either Second Line DE, albeit not by much. However, no one member of this defensive front really stands out from a fantasy perspective; all four members of the line have scored between 26.0 and 33.0 fantasy points so far this season. Does this mean that 4-3 DEs do get a boost and that's why they've managed to keep pace with stronger DTs? Or is a 4-3 defensive line simply a level playing field between DT and DE, and all four members of the Second Line defensive line are simply close enough in TPE to be essentially equals in the eyes of the almighty sim? Only more time and more data will tell.
DT/DE Original observations:
- DEs that play as LBs score as LBs and should be high priority DL options. - True
- DTs playing in 3-4 defenses are great, especially if they are the only high TPE defensive linemen on the team. - True
- DEs playing in a 4-3 defense get a lot of the pass rushing opportunities that we usually expect LBs to see. It's not quite as reliable as a 3-4 DT (3-4 DTs log more tackles, which are worth quite a bit with this scoring), but there is upside. - Inconclusive
DT/DE Updated observations:
- It's not being a NT in a 3-4 alignment that produces, it's being the only truly good DL in a 3-4 alignment that produces. NTs should not get a boost just for being NTs. - Somewhat True
Current Points Leaders:
- 68.0 - Christian Marciano - DT -
- 66.0 - Raphael McTurtle - DT -
- 51.0 - Harley Andrews - DE -
- 40.0 - Lennay Kekua - DT -
- 39.0 - Joey Din - DE -
- 36.0 - Daron Arnold - DE -
- 34.0 - Rocco Blade - DE -
- 33.0 - Charles Chapman - DT -
- 32.0 - 4 way tie
Nothing has changed for the two star DTs since the week 1 update. Marciano still shuffles back and forth between NT and RE in 3-4 and 3-3-5 formations while McTurtle continues to fill in purely as the Outlaws' RE. Neither has anyone of note beside them on the D Line, though both have pretty good LBs lining up behind them. Similarly, nothing has changed for Harley Andrews, who continues to line up purely as an ILB for Sarasota. Not surprisingly, Andrews is vastly outscoring the rest of the DEs as he has the benefit of LB scoring.
After the top 3 is where this starts to get interesting. Strictly speaking, Lennay Kekua is the highest remaining TPE defensive lineman for the Sailfish once you account for Andrews playing as a LB. However, Kekua's TPE lead over DE Mrs "Stacks" McHits is vanishingly thin. It's really more accurate to say that they're equals in terms of TPE. Despite this, Kekua has more than doubled McHits' fantasy points on the season. What's more, one of the members of that 4 way tie in 9th is Sarasota's other DT, Mistah Freddy. Freddy isn't even particularly close to Kekua and McHits in TPE, yet his production vastly outpaces McHits. At a glance, this would suggest that DTs simply have an easier time scoring fantasy points than DEs (likely due to size alone, if I had to guess).
Supporting this idea are the #5 and #6 ranked DL on the season, Joey Din and Daron Arnold. In theory, both fit the mold established by Marciano and McTurtle; they both are the clear top TPE defensive lineman on their teams with no real competition for the title, and they both have solid LB corps lining up behind them. However, despite enjoying essentially the same setup, both DEs have barely accrued half the points of the leading DTs, and both trail Kekua as well (albeit barely). Diving even deeper, Din's DT teammate Carly Rae Jensen is one of the members of the 4 way tie for 9th despite trailing Din substantially in TPE. Just looking at the top 6 fantasy defensive linemen so far this season, it would appear my initial observation was mostly true; 3-4/3-3-5 DTs do indeed have an easier time scoring fantasy points than 3-4/3-3-5 DEs, though not necessarily for the reasons I originally expected.
Of course, as soon as we exit the top 6 scorers things get dicey with that assumption. Rocco Blade is a DE for Berlin, and fairly substantially trails Fire Salamanders DT Nathan Meaghor in TPE. Despite this, Blade sits at the #7 DL on the season while Meaghor trails distantly with only 24.0 points. Diving into the 4 way tie for 9th, Honolulu's Kellan Frost has also scored 32.0 fantasy points this season despite being a DE in a 3-4 defense, and that situation has none of the hallmarks that the top players seem to have in common (although the Hahalua's general low TPE numbers may be adding to the randomness of the sim).
The one conclusion I cannot adequately address right now is the status of 4-3 defensive linemen for fantasy purposes. The only high TPE 4-3 defensive front in the league is New Orleans, and they're in a bit of a weird situation. Somehow DT Charles Chapman has managed to be the highest scoring member of the group despite not even being the highest TPE DT on the team (that title belongs to Solace Avenger). At the same time, Chapman does boast more TPE than either Second Line DE, albeit not by much. However, no one member of this defensive front really stands out from a fantasy perspective; all four members of the line have scored between 26.0 and 33.0 fantasy points so far this season. Does this mean that 4-3 DEs do get a boost and that's why they've managed to keep pace with stronger DTs? Or is a 4-3 defensive line simply a level playing field between DT and DE, and all four members of the Second Line defensive line are simply close enough in TPE to be essentially equals in the eyes of the almighty sim? Only more time and more data will tell.