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13 weeks a season, 5 games a week, so 65 games total. This adds up to 64.2. I'm gonna take a wild guess and say that it's because of the rounding, but wanted to make sure.
Also, what do you think the reason for the 4-game dropoff between 3 and 4 is?
It's 100% because of the rounding. Excel spits out like 8 decimals, but I find it looks much cleaner with just one. This one was a little more chaotic though because there were so many teams tied.
The projections rely entirely on PF and PA, so all the drop really means is that there was enough of a change in one of those two numbers to sink the win totals. And this early in the season that happens relatively often. Stuff like that will happen less and less the longer the season goes.