03-25-2023, 11:21 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-01-2023, 07:58 PM by Caleb_H. Edited 3 times in total.)
Hello fellow Hawk fans and haters. In a change of events we're back with a special look at one of the ISFL teams this week. The Baltimore Hawks! This is a special article I promised @dude_man I'd put together in response to one of his scouting questions. The Hawks are severely lacking in Draft selections for S41, so instead of theorizing who they might take in the 5th round, I'm instead opting to gaze into my Orb and look at the current Roster's future outlook. Don't worry though, my DSFL content isn't finished for the season I'll be back with another article covering the DSFL playoffs ahead of the Conference Championship game scheduled for Wednesday March 29th.
Roster Age:
From the Team Budget Spreadsheet we can see that Baltimore is the youngest team in the league by nearly a season if we exclude Honolulu, and two seasons compared to the Ultimus XXXIX contenders Arizona and Yellowknife. The Hawk's record this year reflects this statistic as they sit in last place of the NSFC. However, what's slightly more interesting is that despite ranking last in TPE per player, they're only 3rd to last in total TPE by a margin of 1408 TPE over last place Honolulu. This difference is explained by Baltimore's roster count(23) exceeding Honolulu's(19) for an average of 352 TPE per extra player. This is likely due to Baltimore's advantage of having two Human Offensive Lineman, thus requiring that they only pay $21M for 3x Tier 4 OLine BOTs instead of the $35M Honolulu is paying for 5x Tier 4 BOTs.
Bengal Tigerheart is their top Offensive Lineman as a S40 draftee with 437 TPE at current. The other Lineman is S37 Yummy HotDogPie who is a lower earner at 274 TPE, but still very active in the league. These two studs on the OLine will provide Baltimore cap relief for some time to come and allow them to maintain either a Roster count or total TPE advantage into the future.
Offense:
Somewhere where Baltimore doesn't rank last is on Offense.
Pts (Cnf/Lea) 26.9 (2/3)
Yds (Cnf/Lea) 406.7 (1/1)
Rush (Cnf/Lea) 83.1 (5/9)
Pass (Cnf/Lea) 323.7 (1/1)
Baltimore has opted to implement a Pro Style system that heavily relies on having two top WRs and a single TE to maximize the production of their best players, without needing an entire arsenal of offensive weapons. Lead by the teams top TPE earners S37 QB Preston Beatz and S37 WR Rocky Moreaux, the Hawk Air Raid has had opposing defenses in shambles all season. The duo is just reaching the peak of TPE effectiveness, and as max earners Baltimore is likely to benefit for at least another 4 seasons from the pair. The passing game is also complemented by up and comers S40 TE Penger Tolliver and S38 WR Shane Turnbull. And while the run game has been serviceable, at a closer look I'd argue it's been outstanding considering it's lead by S29 Dante King whose heavily into regression sitting at only 463 TPE down from an all time high of 1497. Don't worry though Baltimore already has S40 Running Back Money Tolliver ready to replace King who is likely to retire soon. Overall I don't expect we'll see this offense slowing down anytime soon, and if anything I'd say it hasn't even peaked.
Defense:
The Baltimore defense hasn't been so hot this season. Mostly hindered by a young secondary led by Cornerbacks S39 Jake Williams and S38 Casino Robin who are both hovering around 600 TPE. The front 7 looks a bit better lead by veteran S36 Linebacker Burce Buckley Jr. at 857 TPE, which is the highest TPE for any defensive player on the roster. Fortunately for Baltimore other than S36 Defensive End Mabel Pines and S35 Safety Titty Juana, the rest of their defensive core is S38 or later. Additionally the Hawk's have two S40 DSFL send downs at Safety, Bourtol Halcomsby & Quandale Dingle. Both are looking to be top earners and should help sure up the secondary in a few seasons when Baltimore looks to make an Ultimus run.
TPE/Player:
In correlation with Roster Age, Baltimore currently resides at the lowest TPE/Player of 536. To give you some context Arizona leads the league at 898, followed by Yellowknife at 859 per player, and the League average is 713. Excluding the Rookie PT, this season as a newcreate I've been able to earn around 180 TPE from the beginning of last offseason to the current date. If we assume every player can earn around 180 TPE, Baltimore could hit the league average by the end of next season 536->716, and match Arizona in about two seasons 716->896. However, despite Baltimore's stacked young roster, it's probably a bit foolish to believe every player is likely to be a max earner.
Baltimore has 4 inactives on their roster of 23, or in other terms 83% of the roster is made up of active players. For sake of simplicity let's just remove the 30 TPE from Tier 6 equipment and take the remainder number of 150 and multiply it by 0.83. That gives us an ideal gain of 124 TPE/player. From our previous number we would see a gain of 536 -> 784 over two seasons. 784 TPE/Player would be good for 5th place in S40. And that's a very safe estimate that assumes no player on their roster is purchasing tier 6 equipment. Baltimore is at the pivot point of a rebuild, but the Roster is full of star names mostly S38 or younger. If Baltimore can throw in a Free Agent or trade pickup on top of their talented and fast growing Roster I think they could easily make the playoffs in S42, and compete for being the team to beat in S43.