05-16-2020, 05:56 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-16-2020, 05:56 AM by IthicaHawk.)
For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:
For previous weeks Elo posts see here:
For additional stat based content see here:
Another week done, well, two weeks thanks to our time travelling double header managing to squeeze two whole weeks of football into just 1 action pact evening.
Week 10 we accurately predicted all the games and there was no great surprises to be seen. There was also only one instance of Scorigami that week belonging to the 55-7 Copperheads defeat over the Hahalua. All in all, a very generic week.
Week 11 on the other hand, we had four cases of Scorigami. The 13-9 Hawks win over Liberty, the 13-7 Sailfish win over Yeti, the 16-9 Hahalua win over Sabercats and the 41-0 Wraiths win over Butchers. Week 11 was also tough on our predictions with the underdogs winning four out of the six matchups.
The biggest upset of the week is the Copperheads 28-20 victory over long time #1 Otters. That win is good enough to give them 49.79 Elo points. Otters, of course, drop equally. If the Wraiths had played basically anyone else other than the Butchers this week they'd probably be in the top spot now. A 41-0 win over the #12 ranked Butchers only gained 8.93 Elo points for the Wraiths so, although they took the #2 spot off Second Line in Week 10, they're still just a little shy of knocking the Otters off top position. 15.84 points to be specific. This is the narrowest margin since Yeti threatened in week 5.
Speaking of Yeti. The fall continues. From being under 8 points off #1, they've sunk down to #6 as Copperheads push them out of the top 5. They're now just under 200 points off of the #1 spot now and, with only a few weeks left in the season, they don't have long to mount a climb back up.
Yet again Hahalua and Sailfish are within 1 point of each other. I have no idea how they accomplish this so often but it borders on comical. At this point, Sailfish slipped into the lead over Hahalua in week 10 and just held in in week 11 in the battle of the expansion teams.
I mean, look at this:
The weekly rankings after week 10 are as follows:
1(=) 1,750.85
2(+1) 1,676.30
3(-1) 1,643.94
4(=) 1,570.72
5(+1) 1,545.60
6(-1) 1,538.12
7(=) 1,430.57
8(+1) 1,423.02
9(-1) 1,417.62
10(+1) 1,388.74
11(-1) 1,359.66
12(=) 1,221.92
The weekly rankings after week 11 are as follows:
1(=) 1,701.07
2(=) 1,685.23
3(=) 1,655.35
4(+1) 1,595.38
5(-1) 1,534.32
6(=) 1,506.41
7(+1) 1,454.73
8(+1) 1,454.02
9(+1) 1,419.50
10(-3) 1,399.82
11(=) 1,348.25
12(=) 1,212.99
Week 12
@
I guess not entirely surprising at this point but Yeti have the advantage here. Not only are they a stronger team (despite attempting to proove otherwise in the last few weeks) but they also have the home field advantage. 88.73% chance they win this one.
@
Wraiths are so close to the #1 spot at this point. A win this week coupled by a loss by the Otters would be enough to see Wraiths swoop in to the top of the tables. 87.03% chance Wraiths take this but, since Otters have a stronger opponent, a win in isolation won't be enough to catch the Otters.
@
The Outlaws travelling to Hawaii this week to face one of the two expansion teams. Perhaps this will give the Hahalua the bump they need to put some distance between themselves and the Sailfish? 72.77% chances that Hahalua take the W this week.
@
Copperheads have climbed from 11th to 4th place with a series of strong wins. A defeat here of Second Line would give them the #3 spot in a great climbing performance. It'll be tough, Second Line are no slouch and, with home field advantage in hand, have 67.25% chance of taking it this week. That being said, Copperheads did knock off Otters last week so who knows.
@
Defending #1 spot and coming off a loss to the Copperheads, Otters travel to San Jose to face the sneaky strong SaberCats. Otters need to win here or they will seriously risk losing the #1 spot to the Wraiths. Luckily, they're still a strong team so we give them 64.24% odds of going 10-2.
@
A tough one to predict. Sailfish go in as the better team and wanting to get back on top of the Hahalua but Liberty have home field advantage. This is this weeks 'please no more ties' game as we say Liberty has the slight edge at 51.45% odds.
Summary
@ = 88.73%
@ = 87.03%
@ = 72.77%
@ = 67.25%
@ = 64.24%
@ = 51.45%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~70% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Week 10 we accurately predicted all the games and there was no great surprises to be seen. There was also only one instance of Scorigami that week belonging to the 55-7 Copperheads defeat over the Hahalua. All in all, a very generic week.
Week 11 on the other hand, we had four cases of Scorigami. The 13-9 Hawks win over Liberty, the 13-7 Sailfish win over Yeti, the 16-9 Hahalua win over Sabercats and the 41-0 Wraiths win over Butchers. Week 11 was also tough on our predictions with the underdogs winning four out of the six matchups.
The biggest upset of the week is the Copperheads 28-20 victory over long time #1 Otters. That win is good enough to give them 49.79 Elo points. Otters, of course, drop equally. If the Wraiths had played basically anyone else other than the Butchers this week they'd probably be in the top spot now. A 41-0 win over the #12 ranked Butchers only gained 8.93 Elo points for the Wraiths so, although they took the #2 spot off Second Line in Week 10, they're still just a little shy of knocking the Otters off top position. 15.84 points to be specific. This is the narrowest margin since Yeti threatened in week 5.
Speaking of Yeti. The fall continues. From being under 8 points off #1, they've sunk down to #6 as Copperheads push them out of the top 5. They're now just under 200 points off of the #1 spot now and, with only a few weeks left in the season, they don't have long to mount a climb back up.
Yet again Hahalua and Sailfish are within 1 point of each other. I have no idea how they accomplish this so often but it borders on comical. At this point, Sailfish slipped into the lead over Hahalua in week 10 and just held in in week 11 in the battle of the expansion teams.
I mean, look at this:
The weekly rankings after week 10 are as follows:
1(=) 1,750.85
2(+1) 1,676.30
3(-1) 1,643.94
4(=) 1,570.72
5(+1) 1,545.60
6(-1) 1,538.12
7(=) 1,430.57
8(+1) 1,423.02
9(-1) 1,417.62
10(+1) 1,388.74
11(-1) 1,359.66
12(=) 1,221.92
The weekly rankings after week 11 are as follows:
1(=) 1,701.07
2(=) 1,685.23
3(=) 1,655.35
4(+1) 1,595.38
5(-1) 1,534.32
6(=) 1,506.41
7(+1) 1,454.73
8(+1) 1,454.02
9(+1) 1,419.50
10(-3) 1,399.82
11(=) 1,348.25
12(=) 1,212.99
Week 12
@
I guess not entirely surprising at this point but Yeti have the advantage here. Not only are they a stronger team (despite attempting to proove otherwise in the last few weeks) but they also have the home field advantage. 88.73% chance they win this one.
@
Wraiths are so close to the #1 spot at this point. A win this week coupled by a loss by the Otters would be enough to see Wraiths swoop in to the top of the tables. 87.03% chance Wraiths take this but, since Otters have a stronger opponent, a win in isolation won't be enough to catch the Otters.
@
The Outlaws travelling to Hawaii this week to face one of the two expansion teams. Perhaps this will give the Hahalua the bump they need to put some distance between themselves and the Sailfish? 72.77% chances that Hahalua take the W this week.
@
Copperheads have climbed from 11th to 4th place with a series of strong wins. A defeat here of Second Line would give them the #3 spot in a great climbing performance. It'll be tough, Second Line are no slouch and, with home field advantage in hand, have 67.25% chance of taking it this week. That being said, Copperheads did knock off Otters last week so who knows.
@
Defending #1 spot and coming off a loss to the Copperheads, Otters travel to San Jose to face the sneaky strong SaberCats. Otters need to win here or they will seriously risk losing the #1 spot to the Wraiths. Luckily, they're still a strong team so we give them 64.24% odds of going 10-2.
@
A tough one to predict. Sailfish go in as the better team and wanting to get back on top of the Hahalua but Liberty have home field advantage. This is this weeks 'please no more ties' game as we say Liberty has the slight edge at 51.45% odds.
Summary
@ = 88.73%
@ = 87.03%
@ = 72.77%
@ = 67.25%
@ = 64.24%
@ = 51.45%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~70% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]