*S22 Elo Review - Printable Version

*S22 Elo Review - Printable Version

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*S22 Elo Review - IthicaHawk - 05-21-2020

For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:

For previous weeks Elo posts see here:

For additional stat based content see here:

The greatest team in the history of the NSFL, A video report

First, lets take a quick look at Week 13, the final week of the season. Everything went pretty much as expected and we had just one instance of Scorigami, the 34-21 Wraiths Liberty match. Every game went the way of the favourites giving us another 6/6 week on predictions bringing our total for the season to 53/78 (or 68%) overall. It was really just week 6/7/8 that messed us up here as we went just 7/18 in that stretch. This lines up fairly well with the second half season surge of both SaberCats and Copperheads but we'll get to that.
Week 13 was relatively tame, the largest Elo difference was thanks tothe Copperheads 35-13 win over the SaberCats giving them 27.01 points. Liberty lost just 8.96 points after dropping to the Wraiths but it was enough to move them down one spot and allow Sailfish to slide up one.

That brings us to our final ranking for the S22 regular season:
1(=) YKW

1,708.22
2(=) AUS

1,687.84
3(=) OCO

1,674.01
4(=) NOLA

1,596.90
5(=) SJS

1,553.25
6(=) COL

1,533.92
7(+1) SAR

1,451.57
8(-1) PHI

1,420.41
9(=) ARI

1,388.38
10(=) BAL

1,388.29
11(=) HON

1,388.02
12(=) CHI

1,176.26

It's been a wild ride. Sailfish and Hahalua in lockstep for almost all the season until the last few weeks when Sailfish managed to pull out ahead. Copperheads being as far down as 10th and then rising to finish 2nd. Otters holding 1st from week 3 right up until week 12 then dropping to 3rd.

Here's every teams weekly position throughout the season:
[div align=\\\"center\\\"] [Image: FhGPBcV.png]

[/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Figure 1. All teams S22 weekly Elo position rankings[/div]

There are some intersting stories to tell in there. Most impressive is definately the Copperheads who came into the season in 8th position with a score of 1,498.48 falling to 11th position by week 6 with a score of 1,414.45. Then began the climb. They started in week 7 with a strong 47-16 defeat over the Sailfish netting them 49.83 points. Copperheads were the favourites but only marginally with a chance to in of just 50.78%. But win they did. They kept winning, beating top ranked Otters 28-20 in week 11 for another 49.79 points. They finish in second top spot with a total Elo score of 1,687.84. That is 189.35 higher than season start and the largest gain this season.

The #1 spot belongs to the Wraiths who entered a strong 3rd but sank quickly to 6th. They recovered quickly and maintained top 4 for the rest of the season, briefly flirting with top 2 in week 7 before finally taking it proper in week 10 and stepping into #1 in week 12. They finish on 1,708.22 points.

In terms of their actual overall scores, there's how all the teams sit in S22:
[div align=\\\"center\\\"] [Image: QLyDA9Y.png]

[/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Figure 2. All teams S22 Elo scores [/div]

We can see how the week 11/12 loses for the Otters really hurt their score and allowed the consitant Wraiths to catch up. We can also get another look at the Copperheads rise and see how much they rose up in the second half of the season. At the bottom of the chart we see the Butchers who, apart from their lone 9-5 win over Hahalua in week 7, gracefully slid deeper into the depths over the season. In fact, looks like we lost them completely in week 12, where'd they go?

[div align=\\\"center\\\"] [Image: MSaFmzs.png]

[/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Figure 3. Found them. [/div]

Safe to say, not the greatest season for the Butchers as they end up on 1,176.26 points. Still, they are commited to the rebuild and there isn't much other places to go except up.

In terms of the Battle of the Expansion Teams, well, it was a close close race but, in the end, Hahalua just couldn't keep up with the Sailfish as they pulled away in the last two weeks of the regular season.

[div align=\\\"center\\\"] [Image: 0K56wVM.png]

[/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Figure 4. Hahalua vs Sailfish throughout the season[/div]

Here's where all teams have been over S18-S22 week 13. Please note, I changed the method of calculating each week in S22 to be more accurate but I haven't cascaded that back to week 18 yet as I didn't want to change the S22 opening numbers. After this season I will go back and update all seasons to have the same method. It shouldn't make a huge difference but I decided not to risk it until the off-season.

[div align=\\\"center\\\"] [Image: U5xXacm.png]

[/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Figure 5. All teams Elo S18-S22 Week 13[/div]

Lets look forward to the playoffs now.

Playoff Quarterfinals

PHI

Liberty are the weakest team in the playoffs and one of just two with an Elo score less than 1500. They have the unfortunate distinction of going up against the top ranked team while also on the road. The 11-2 Wraiths are heavy favourites for this one with 88.4% chance of progressing in the post-season.

SAR

First season, first playoff appearance. A good show from the 6-7 Sailfish who have improved mid-season with their trade for QB Rose Jenkins off of Chicago. They travel to face the Yeti who, after starting out 5-0 then lost 5 of their next 8 games to end up 8-5. Despite barely winning the last two against two of the weakest teams, Yeti did manage to take the Ws. They'll need to pull out their early season performance against the Sailfish however.
Yeti have potential and do have the home field advantage so we give them 70.02% odds to win.

SJS

The sneaky hot SaberCats face the long time top Otters on the road this week for their chance to advance. We've seen Otters drop a few surprising games and SaberCats have taken their fair share of underdog victories so this should be a good match. Odds do favour Otters with 74.45% winning odds.

NOLA

Copperheads are the hot team right now. Meanwhile, the defending Ultimus champs are sitting at 4th in the rankings after dropping from 2nd in week 9. Their season hasn't been perhaps as strong as they hoped, going 8-5. Copperheads to take this 71.05%

Summary

SAR

70.02%

71.05%

edit: I'm now told that, since the sim doesn't seem to do bye weeks well that, unfortunately, Liberty and SaberCats don't actually make the playoffs and they will be forced losses for the top ranked conferences teams to proceed. RIP the SaberCats.

Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~70% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.

*S22 Elo Review - IthicaHawk - 05-21-2020

I'm now told that, since the sim doesn't seem to do bye weeks well that, unfortunately, Liberty and SaberCats don't actually make the playoffs and they will be forced losses for the top ranked conferences teams to proceed. RIP the SaberCats.

*S22 Elo Review - HalfEatenOnionBagel - 05-21-2020

(05-21-2020, 04:52 AM)IthicaHawk Wrote:In fact, looks like we lost them completely in week 12, where'd they go?

[div align=\\\"center\\\"][/div]
[div align=\\\"center\\\"]Figure 3. Found them. [/div]

Savage haha.

Excellent work on this all season! It's really interesting to see the trends over the course of the season. Really impressive to see the progress Sarasota made in their first year and the bounce back by Austin.