04-29-2024, 09:31 AM
(This post was last modified: 04-30-2024, 11:52 AM by wetwilleh. Edited 1 time in total.)
Hi everyone! Back after a season away, I’ve put together a small playoff preview. In case you are curious, the advantages are determined by standardizing the averages for each team and comparing z-scores. Last time around this method had a 60% success rate, so it’s yet to be seen if this is a good predictor or not! Good luck to all the teams tonight!
New Orleans Keys to the Game:
1. Show Up Against Top Competition
The Secondline have finally made it to the playoffs after numerous seasons near the bottom of the league. While their 11 wins make them look like a contender, New Orleans is 2-3 against playoff teams this season. Can they put together a complete game against the ISFL’s best?
2. Be Efficient in the Run Game
New Orleans ran the ball 424 times during the regular season (3rd most in the ISFL). However, they were just middle of the pack in rushing yards per game. Why? They ranked second to last averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt. And in their five losses every game was below that average. While staying committed to the run is beneficial, a lack of success could put the Secondline in some bad spots.
3. Avoid the Costly Turnovers
In their early season loss to the Outlaws, the Secondline had three turnovers all on Arizona’s side of the field. In a game that went into overtime, those are all lost opportunities for points. The ability to not force the ball in scoring position will allow New Orleans to end drives with points.
Arizona Keys to the Game:
1. Get After the Quarterback
One of the weaknesses of the Outlaws this season has been rushing the quarterback. With only 40 sacks on the season, a lack of a pass rush has been something noticeable in their losses.
2. Spread the Ball Around
The Outlaws have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the ISFL. All five of their skill position players surpassed 1000 scrimmage yards on the season. Arizona scored over 20 touchdowns on the ground and through the air. This allows the Outlaws to find the weakness in the opposing defense and exploit it as they have the flexibility to change up their gameplan.
3. The Secondary Has to Play Big
With the Secondline having some big name receivers, it will be up to the Outlaw’s secondary to come up big once again. In their early season victory, Arizona had 13 PD and 2 INT (including one returned for a Touchdown). This kind of work will go a long way to push the Outlaws to victory.
Prediction based on Advantage Count: While New Orleans has waited so long to get back to the postseason, the Outlaws are just too much to overcome. With some top play from Donovan Winters III, Arizona jumps out to an early lead. Their defense is able to hold off a late rally and seal the win with a big 4th down stop to end the game.
Cape Town Keys to the Game:
1. Stick to Their Strength
The Crash are the top running team in the ISFL. They led the league with 27 touchdowns on the ground and averaged over 5 yards per carry on the season. Yet in 5 of their 7 losses, they failed to reach 100 yards on the ground and ran the ball less than 20 times in 4 of those games. In order to play well, the Crash must lean heavily on the run game.
2. Create Points on Defense
Cape Town led the league with 6 defensive touchdowns. All six occurred in a Crash victory. For a team that can run out the clock extremely well, a quick defensive score helps to put the team in a position to lean even heavier on the run. They are also great ways to fuel a comeback for a team that struggles a little to pass the ball.
3. Don’t Wait Till the Second Half
The score at halftime against Baltimore in their two meetings this season: 34-7 Baltimore and 20-0 Baltimore. If the Crash want to push for the upset, they need to not start the game off in such a hole and have to rely on heroics to pull off the miracle.
Baltimore Keys to the Game:
1. Be Thankful This Game is in Baltimore
The Hawks stumbled into the playoffs, losing 5 of their last 7 games. However, the Hawks are a different team in Baltimore. All five of those losses came on the road while the Hawks have won 6 straight at home.
2. Win the Strength Against Strength
While the Crash are the top run offense in the ISFL, the Hawks boast the top run defense. Something has to give but if Baltimore can find a way to neutralize the Crash on the ground, the opportunistic Hawks secondary should find ways to make big plays.
3. Play Mistake Free Football
Wolfie McDummy Jr. was brought over to the Hawks with the hope that he could play like one of the best quarterbacks in the ISFL. Unfortunately, bad luck has seemed to follow him to Baltimore where he has had some bad games. Most recently, in the season ending loss to the Crash, McDummy threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. On top of that, two were returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter. A clean game would go a long way to expel those demons.
Prediction Based on Advantage Count: It’s hard to come back from a loss like the one the Hawks suffered to the Crash last Friday. Look for the Crash to find a way to succeed on the ground control the game and the clock while the Hawks offense stalls in the redzone one too many times.
ASFC Wildcard Game
.
New Orleans Secondline (11-5) @ Arizona Outlaws (12-4)
.
.
NOLA Scoring Offense vs. AZ Scoring Defense
26.8 PPG (5th) vs. 20.9 PPG (2nd)
.
Advantage:
.
AZ Scoring Offense vs. NOLA Scoring Defense
29.3 PPG (1st) vs. 21.2 PPG (4th)
.
Advantage:
.
NOLA Total Offense vs. AZ Total Defense
352.3 YPG (10th) vs. 336.3 YPG (2nd)
.
Advantage:
.
AZ Total Offense vs. NOLA Total Defense
399.6 YPG (1st) vs. 351.2 YPG (6th)
.
Advantage:
.
NOLA Run Offense vs. AZ Run Defense
96.9 YPG (8th) vs. 83.6 YPG (4th)
.
Advantage:
.
NOLA Pass Offense vs. AZ Pass Defense
255.4 YPG (8th) vs. 252.6 YPG (7th)
.
Advantage:
.
AZ Run Offense vs. NOLA Run Defense
131.1 YPG (2nd) vs. 78.1 YPG (2nd)
.
Advantage:
.
AZ Pass Offense vs. NOLA Pass Defense
268.4 YPG (4th) vs. 273.1 YPG (12th)
.
Advantage:
.
Regular Season Meetings
Week 5 at New Orleans: Arizona 23 - New Orleans 20
Week 13 at Arizona: New Orleans 23 - Arizona 16
.
Advantage: None
.
Home Field Advantage
Arizona Home Record: 6-2
New Orleans Away Record: 6-2
.
Advantage: None
.
Record in Last 6 Games (Past Two Updates)
New Orleans: 4-2
Arizona: 3-3
.
Advantage:
New Orleans Keys to the Game:
1. Show Up Against Top Competition
The Secondline have finally made it to the playoffs after numerous seasons near the bottom of the league. While their 11 wins make them look like a contender, New Orleans is 2-3 against playoff teams this season. Can they put together a complete game against the ISFL’s best?
2. Be Efficient in the Run Game
New Orleans ran the ball 424 times during the regular season (3rd most in the ISFL). However, they were just middle of the pack in rushing yards per game. Why? They ranked second to last averaging only 3.7 yards per attempt. And in their five losses every game was below that average. While staying committed to the run is beneficial, a lack of success could put the Secondline in some bad spots.
3. Avoid the Costly Turnovers
In their early season loss to the Outlaws, the Secondline had three turnovers all on Arizona’s side of the field. In a game that went into overtime, those are all lost opportunities for points. The ability to not force the ball in scoring position will allow New Orleans to end drives with points.
Arizona Keys to the Game:
1. Get After the Quarterback
One of the weaknesses of the Outlaws this season has been rushing the quarterback. With only 40 sacks on the season, a lack of a pass rush has been something noticeable in their losses.
2. Spread the Ball Around
The Outlaws have one of the most balanced offensive attacks in the ISFL. All five of their skill position players surpassed 1000 scrimmage yards on the season. Arizona scored over 20 touchdowns on the ground and through the air. This allows the Outlaws to find the weakness in the opposing defense and exploit it as they have the flexibility to change up their gameplan.
3. The Secondary Has to Play Big
With the Secondline having some big name receivers, it will be up to the Outlaw’s secondary to come up big once again. In their early season victory, Arizona had 13 PD and 2 INT (including one returned for a Touchdown). This kind of work will go a long way to push the Outlaws to victory.
Advantage Count: 8 - 1
Prediction based on Advantage Count: While New Orleans has waited so long to get back to the postseason, the Outlaws are just too much to overcome. With some top play from Donovan Winters III, Arizona jumps out to an early lead. Their defense is able to hold off a late rally and seal the win with a big 4th down stop to end the game.
27 - 23
NSFC Wildcard Game
.
Cape Town Crash (9-7) @ Baltimore Hawks (10-6)
.
.
CTC Scoring Offense vs. BAL Scoring Defense
29.2 PPG (2nd) vs. 23.2 PPG (8th)
.
Advantage:
.
BAL Scoring Offense vs. CTC Scoring Defense
28.2 PPG (4th) vs. 23.3 PPG (9th)
.
Advantage:
.
CTC Total Offense vs. BAL Total Defense
377.4 YPG (2nd) vs. 370.7 YPG (11th)
.
Advantage:
.
BAL Total Offense vs. CTC Total Defense
356.9 YPG (6th) vs. 361.5 YPG (9th)
.
Advantage:
.
CTC Run Offense vs. BAL Run Defense
140.0 YPG (1st) vs. 72.2 YPG (1st)
.
Advantage:
.
CTC Pass Offense vs. BAL Pass Defense
237.4 YPG (12th) vs. 298.4 YPG (14th)
.
Advantage:
.
BAL Run Offense vs. CTC Run Defense
119.1 YPG (3rd) vs. 96.3 YPG (8th)
.
Advantage:
.
BAL Pass Offense vs. CTC Pass Defense
237.8 YPG (11th) vs. 265.2 YPG (9th)
.
Advantage:
.
Regular Season Meetings
Week 4 at Baltimore: Baltimore 37 - Cape Town 21
Week 16 at Cape Town: Cape Town 30 - Baltimore 26
.
Advantage: None
.
Home Field Advantage
Baltimore Home Record: 7-1
Cape Town Away Record: 2-6
.
Advantage:
.
Record in Last 6 Games (Past Two Updates)
Cape Town: 4-2
Baltimore: 2-4
.
Advantage:
Cape Town Keys to the Game:
1. Stick to Their Strength
The Crash are the top running team in the ISFL. They led the league with 27 touchdowns on the ground and averaged over 5 yards per carry on the season. Yet in 5 of their 7 losses, they failed to reach 100 yards on the ground and ran the ball less than 20 times in 4 of those games. In order to play well, the Crash must lean heavily on the run game.
2. Create Points on Defense
Cape Town led the league with 6 defensive touchdowns. All six occurred in a Crash victory. For a team that can run out the clock extremely well, a quick defensive score helps to put the team in a position to lean even heavier on the run. They are also great ways to fuel a comeback for a team that struggles a little to pass the ball.
3. Don’t Wait Till the Second Half
The score at halftime against Baltimore in their two meetings this season: 34-7 Baltimore and 20-0 Baltimore. If the Crash want to push for the upset, they need to not start the game off in such a hole and have to rely on heroics to pull off the miracle.
Baltimore Keys to the Game:
1. Be Thankful This Game is in Baltimore
The Hawks stumbled into the playoffs, losing 5 of their last 7 games. However, the Hawks are a different team in Baltimore. All five of those losses came on the road while the Hawks have won 6 straight at home.
2. Win the Strength Against Strength
While the Crash are the top run offense in the ISFL, the Hawks boast the top run defense. Something has to give but if Baltimore can find a way to neutralize the Crash on the ground, the opportunistic Hawks secondary should find ways to make big plays.
3. Play Mistake Free Football
Wolfie McDummy Jr. was brought over to the Hawks with the hope that he could play like one of the best quarterbacks in the ISFL. Unfortunately, bad luck has seemed to follow him to Baltimore where he has had some bad games. Most recently, in the season ending loss to the Crash, McDummy threw three interceptions and lost a fumble. On top of that, two were returned for touchdowns in the fourth quarter. A clean game would go a long way to expel those demons.
Advantage Count: 6 - 4
Prediction Based on Advantage Count: It’s hard to come back from a loss like the one the Hawks suffered to the Crash last Friday. Look for the Crash to find a way to succeed on the ground control the game and the clock while the Hawks offense stalls in the redzone one too many times.
28 - 23
DSFL S43 Draft - Round 4 Pick 30
ISFL S44 Draft - Round 1 Pick 12
S43 DSFL Pro Bowl
S44 DSFL Pro Bowl
S45 All Rookie Team
S48 ISFL Pro Bowl
S48 ISFL 2nd Team All-Pro
S49 ISFL Pro Bowl
S49 ISFL 1st Team All-Pro
Gemini Media Awards
14 Gemini Nominations
Best Article (Limited) - S43 "Do Penalties Really Matter?"
Best Author - S43, S44