For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:
For previous weeks Elo posts see here:
For additional stat based content see here:
With week 12 now in the bag we have just one more set of games until we reach the post season. Week 12 turned out to be quite an exciting one with a fair amount of movement in the table. Lots of upsets and big scores. Fun fact, the 59-3 defeat of the Hawks by the Wraiths was _not_ Scorigami as that particular box score has been seen before. THe only instance of Scorigami this week was the 24-12 SaberCats win over the Otters.
Speaking of the SaberCats, their win over the Otters wasn't enough to move them up any further in the table but it did have big impacts for the Otters who lost 45.96 points. That loss coupled with the strong Copperheads defeat of #3 Second Line allowed Austin to ssssneak up into the #2 position, leapfrogging Second Line who sink to 4th.
Of course, the Otters loss was the Wraiths gain as they take the #1 position away from the Otters who have held it since week 2.
At the other end of the table, both expansion teams lost but it was Hahalua who suffered the most, losing 59.02 points in their loss to the #11 ranked Outlaws causing them to drop 3 places to 11th in the table.
The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(+1) 1,699.26
2(+2) 1,660.82
3(-2) 1,655.12
4(-1) 1,589.91
5(=) 1,580.27
6(=) 1,516.75
7(+3) 1,429.36
8(-1) 1,425.18
9(+2) 1,407.27
10(-1) 1,405.46
11(-3) 1,395.01
12(=) 1,202.65
Week 13
@
Wraiths took the top spot in the tables last week thanks to a series of strong performances taking them to a league leading 10-2 record. To finish with an unmatched top record all they need to do is take on 6-6 Liberty at Home. Sounds like they've got the season pretty much capped off and, with 87.30% odds of winning, the stats would agree. However we've seen more unexpected upsets this season so lets not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet.
@
A win here for Hahalua would shoot them back up the tables in quick order and allow them, perhaps, to get back ontop of the Sailfish. Second Line are still a top tier team despite a rough few weeks so we estimate 81.70% chance they finish the season off with a W.
@
Outlaws were 11th in the tables until last week and Otters were top. Now Otters are third and Outlaws are 9th. What does this mean? Most likely nothing. Otters are only 5 points off taking #2, easily reachable but 44 points off #1 spot again. A win against Outlaws won't get them that many points so they need Wraiths to stumble this week to have a chance of taking #1 again. Otters have 74.13% of winning this week.
@
Butchers have committed fully to the rebuild, trading their QB to Sailfish for a pick next season and starting a 50 TPE QB her place. That being said, the Butchers defence has been playing well and they do have the home field advantage this week. A win here would be nice for the Butchers to end the season on, if only so that I don't have to extend the lower bounds of my Elo graphs. Sailfish to take this 71.24%.
@
This is an interesting matchup. Newly minted #2 Copperheads are hosting 5th place SaberCats this week. Both teams have found sucess through upsetting the odds and taking big Ws when it counts. Who will be the one to take it this week? Odds say Copperheads with 69.80% but both these teams seem to thrive being the underdogs so I'm not sure this helps the Copperheads.
@
Yeti have struggled to reclaim their early season success since they started to tumble in week 7. Meanwhile Hawks have won 2 out of their last 3 games. Home field advantage is with the Hawks this week making this one tough to call. Yeti have the slight edge with 56.62% odds.
Summary
@ = 87.30%
@ = 81.70%
@ = 74.13%
@ = 71.24%
@ = 69.80%
@ = 56.62%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~70% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Speaking of the SaberCats, their win over the Otters wasn't enough to move them up any further in the table but it did have big impacts for the Otters who lost 45.96 points. That loss coupled with the strong Copperheads defeat of #3 Second Line allowed Austin to ssssneak up into the #2 position, leapfrogging Second Line who sink to 4th.
Of course, the Otters loss was the Wraiths gain as they take the #1 position away from the Otters who have held it since week 2.
At the other end of the table, both expansion teams lost but it was Hahalua who suffered the most, losing 59.02 points in their loss to the #11 ranked Outlaws causing them to drop 3 places to 11th in the table.
The weekly rankings are as follows:
1(+1) 1,699.26
2(+2) 1,660.82
3(-2) 1,655.12
4(-1) 1,589.91
5(=) 1,580.27
6(=) 1,516.75
7(+3) 1,429.36
8(-1) 1,425.18
9(+2) 1,407.27
10(-1) 1,405.46
11(-3) 1,395.01
12(=) 1,202.65
Week 13
@
Wraiths took the top spot in the tables last week thanks to a series of strong performances taking them to a league leading 10-2 record. To finish with an unmatched top record all they need to do is take on 6-6 Liberty at Home. Sounds like they've got the season pretty much capped off and, with 87.30% odds of winning, the stats would agree. However we've seen more unexpected upsets this season so lets not get too far ahead of ourselves just yet.
@
A win here for Hahalua would shoot them back up the tables in quick order and allow them, perhaps, to get back ontop of the Sailfish. Second Line are still a top tier team despite a rough few weeks so we estimate 81.70% chance they finish the season off with a W.
@
Outlaws were 11th in the tables until last week and Otters were top. Now Otters are third and Outlaws are 9th. What does this mean? Most likely nothing. Otters are only 5 points off taking #2, easily reachable but 44 points off #1 spot again. A win against Outlaws won't get them that many points so they need Wraiths to stumble this week to have a chance of taking #1 again. Otters have 74.13% of winning this week.
@
Butchers have committed fully to the rebuild, trading their QB to Sailfish for a pick next season and starting a 50 TPE QB her place. That being said, the Butchers defence has been playing well and they do have the home field advantage this week. A win here would be nice for the Butchers to end the season on, if only so that I don't have to extend the lower bounds of my Elo graphs. Sailfish to take this 71.24%.
@
This is an interesting matchup. Newly minted #2 Copperheads are hosting 5th place SaberCats this week. Both teams have found sucess through upsetting the odds and taking big Ws when it counts. Who will be the one to take it this week? Odds say Copperheads with 69.80% but both these teams seem to thrive being the underdogs so I'm not sure this helps the Copperheads.
@
Yeti have struggled to reclaim their early season success since they started to tumble in week 7. Meanwhile Hawks have won 2 out of their last 3 games. Home field advantage is with the Hawks this week making this one tough to call. Yeti have the slight edge with 56.62% odds.
Summary
@ = 87.30%
@ = 81.70%
@ = 74.13%
@ = 71.24%
@ = 69.80%
@ = 56.62%
Disclaimer: I am no stats expert. There may be mistakes, errors, data entry or otherwise. These are the figures spat out by my sheet which has maintained a prediction accuracy of ~70% (rising to 80% in the playoffs). Take it all with a pinch of salt.
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]