Something to think about. This league started with 6 teams total. That's just 3 games. No DSFL. Now we have 14 teams, and borderline expanding to 16. That's 8 games per night. Something to start thinking about is how sustainable it is to stream every single game. Might not be practical. Along with the DSFL that's a lot to ask for volunteers to give up each night.
(01-19-2021, 10:48 PM)excelsior Wrote: Something to think about. This league started with 6 teams total. That's just 3 games. No DSFL. Now we have 14 teams, and borderline expanding to 16. That's 8 games per night. Something to start thinking about is how sustainable it is to stream every single game. Might not be practical. Along with the DSFL that's a lot to ask for volunteers to give up each night.at about 45 minutes or so currently, we still have one of the shorter sim day time periods compared to other leagues and thats before we consider the possibility of bye weeks
Some quick math...
315 players updated in the most recent update. That's enough people to support 15.75 teams of 20 players each or 19.69 players per team in a 16 team league. - Keep in mind that everyone was HOUNDED to update last week so that their player shows up in the new sim, so this should be a good metric of how many players are currently active. We also have to assume there are a few less active people, because players got updated that aren't actually active; ISFL GMs had to post builds for their IAs. In the last month, 348 players have updated. That's enough to support 17.4 teams of 20 players each or 21.75 players per team in a 16 team league. - Some of these players may already be retired and the user double counted due to having recreated within the past month. We have to assume it's slightly less than these numbers. My biggest concern? I am counting both ISFL and DSFL players in the above counts. We can't even fill a 16 team league using every single player that updated on January 16th, let alone fill a 16 team ISFL and an 8 team DSFL. I don't know of any historical data for "most updates at once", but the only hard data I have is a comment I made back in June in the ISFL Discord server: https://discord.com/channels/31738865799...8001494137 307 people updated in the most recent update back then. In the most pushed for update ever we can only improve by 8 updates? I think we need to look at finding new sources of recruitment before we can even consider moving in this direction. Thank you to @enigmatic, @Kyamprac, @mithrandir, @Mooty99, and @Number 82 for some of the sigs in this rotator.
(01-20-2021, 12:07 AM)AdamS Wrote:(01-19-2021, 10:48 PM)excelsior Wrote: Something to think about. This league started with 6 teams total. That's just 3 games. No DSFL. Now we have 14 teams, and borderline expanding to 16. That's 8 games per night. Something to start thinking about is how sustainable it is to stream every single game. Might not be practical. Along with the DSFL that's a lot to ask for volunteers to give up each night.at about 45 minutes or so currently, we still have one of the shorter sim day time periods compared to other leagues That's with the old sim, if you take a look at the new sims for the Prospect Bowl it will take quite longer.
01-20-2021, 01:19 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2021, 01:23 AM by manicmav36.)
(01-19-2021, 08:37 PM)AdamS Wrote: The 2-3 actives is basically a number you personally have decided on and championed for quite some time now and doesn't actually have any foundation. That said, I removed S22 from the equation and checked S23 onward. Each class exceeds even the figure of 35. S23 is the only one under 40 even. The 2-3 actives isn't just a number pulled from the clouds. When looking at the number of players that retire or go IA or semi IA, each team easily covers 2. I implore you to look at rosters. When it comes to the class I'm "dooming", far from it. My point was, we've relied on r/NFL classes to inflate our class average size. When that can no longer be relied upon, serious questions must be raised. The simple matter is, this class is half the size of our last few r/NFL classes. As for your claim about me being against every expansion except one, that's a revisionist history at best. Expansion to 8 teams (Philly/LV): Not even sure I had created a player yet. Clearly not against it. Expansion to 10 teams (Chicago/Austin): I was a member of the HO that pushed for and approved the expansion. Expansion to 12 teams (Sarasota/Honolulu): I was, yet again, a member of HO that voted to approve expansion, although at that time, I would have preferred we waited another season. Expansion to 14 teams (Berlin/NY): Little known fact, I was the tie-breaking vote on selecting one of the expansion franchises. So... yeah. [OPTION]Johnny Snuggles || CB || Yellowknife Wraiths || Hall of Fame [OPTION]Height/Weight: 6'1", 205 [OPTION]Number: 21 [OPTION] Draft History: S13 #1 Overall [OPTION]=========================================== [OPTION]Trophy Case/Achievements:[OPTION] Ultimini Champs: S12 [OPTION] Defensive Rookie of the Year: S13 [OPTION] Pro Bowl: S14, S15, S16
I did not think for a second that I would need to add caveats that precluded the times before we actually talked about expansion but apparently I should have considered the s2 expansion.
I did look at rosters. It's literally up front, with numbers. I even noted how many ia's and older players each team had while taking care to paint the most stark picture possible with the most bloated requirements possible. It's not enough to require a minimum of 2-3 per season for each team every season. It just isn't. (01-20-2021, 12:44 AM)Amidships Wrote: Some quick math...My concern for filling the DSFL is less than others because its a league who's only role is to fill the ISFL and its own population isn't important. Especially as the majority by far of the DSFL players you counted are actually drafted ISFL players already. 75 currently drafted ISFL players are sitting in the DSFL as of when I wrote this article. If the ISFL had that much trouble filling its roster, we wouldn't have 75 ISFL players in the DSFL. That's an insane amount. Slightly over 5 per team on average. And the 307 activity checks were during new year's week. It and its two previous (ie the week of christmas to new years) represented the 3 lowers AC totals since July. Treating the lowest point in 6 months as a high point isnt accurate. (01-20-2021, 01:00 AM)r0tzbua Wrote:arent prospect bowls usually played at a lower speed for the benefit of new folks?(01-20-2021, 12:07 AM)AdamS Wrote:(01-19-2021, 10:48 PM)excelsior Wrote: Something to think about. This league started with 6 teams total. That's just 3 games. No DSFL. Now we have 14 teams, and borderline expanding to 16. That's 8 games per night. Something to start thinking about is how sustainable it is to stream every single game. Might not be practical. Along with the DSFL that's a lot to ask for volunteers to give up each night.at about 45 minutes or so currently, we still have one of the shorter sim day time periods compared to other leagues (01-20-2021, 01:34 AM)AdamS Wrote: My concern for filling the DSFL is less than others because its a league who's only role is to fill the ISFL and its own population isn't important. Especially as the majority by far of the DSFL players you counted are actually drafted ISFL players already. 75 currently drafted ISFL players are sitting in the DSFL as of when I wrote this article. If the ISFL had that much trouble filling its roster, we wouldn't have 75 ISFL players in the DSFL. That's an insane amount. Slightly over 5 per team on average. I'm not super concerned about filling the DSFL, but using my data we won't have a DSFL at all if we expand to sixteen teams. That's a completely separate discussion. Even if this time of the year is technically considered "down time", the teams had to post updates for their inactives last week in order to have them added to the new sim. There should have been a historically high number of updates this week considering that GMs were putting in updates for their IAs. Nearly every rostered player should have updated this week. If we only got this many, what does that say for the league numbers? Further, what does it say after removing the inflated number of IA updates that GMs had to post? Looking at these updates, we have enough people to support a 16 team league at a much lower average TPE level and with fewer players per team than you suggested was normal. You're looking at roster counts, but rosters don't tell you who is still around and actively participating. Using your numbers of 409 players, expansion might make sense when you include the new class. However, 61 (or 15%) of those players haven't updated in a month and can't be considered active. Expanding now means we keep IAs around longer and rely on them even more to fill out rosters to be competitive. We also need to be ready for the repercussions of losing our Developmental league, and drastically changing the way the ISFL works in terms of TPE/team and TPE/position, etc. It just seems like a lot since we're going through another huge change at the exact same time. At the end of the day we had 350 individual players updated in the last month. That's not enough to support expansion. My data doesn't paint the whole picture, either. Manic brings up another very important point that we have no idea if we're going to continue to attract new players to the league at a rate to replenish those that leave. We need to make sure we're "refilling the coffers" before we bleed them dry. We drafted 58 players into the DSFL last year, and have currently retained 43 of them and that number will drop. You're right, we've got a few more this season at 70 in what was supposed to be another huge recruitment drive. Like you said maybe we can improve retention for this class, but we can't count on it. Every argument I've seen for expansion only looks at current roster count (which still doesn't warrant expansion) and doesn't factor in our recruitment sizes. That's not a knock on the recruitment team, it's a simple fact that our best resource for recruitment catastrophically failed us this time around. We must be mindful of this fact and continue working on that front before we can expand. Thank you to @enigmatic, @Kyamprac, @mithrandir, @Mooty99, and @Number 82 for some of the sigs in this rotator.
(01-20-2021, 01:34 AM)AdamS Wrote: arent prospect bowls usually played at a lower speed for the benefit of new folks? I don't think so. And even if, that doesn't change the fact though. I don't know how much time you spent in the new sim, but with the flying ball, more animations etc. games WILL take a considerable amount of time longer than in DDSPF16. (01-20-2021, 04:24 AM)r0tzbua Wrote:This is something to consider then. Appreciated.(01-20-2021, 01:34 AM)AdamS Wrote: arent prospect bowls usually played at a lower speed for the benefit of new folks? (01-20-2021, 02:58 AM)Amidships Wrote:(01-20-2021, 01:34 AM)AdamS Wrote: My concern for filling the DSFL is less than others because its a league who's only role is to fill the ISFL and its own population isn't important. Especially as the majority by far of the DSFL players you counted are actually drafted ISFL players already. 75 currently drafted ISFL players are sitting in the DSFL as of when I wrote this article. If the ISFL had that much trouble filling its roster, we wouldn't have 75 ISFL players in the DSFL. That's an insane amount. Slightly over 5 per team on average. #1 I didn't say 20 was normal. I said it was a full roster. Including multiple o-line players and at least one backup on each side. And as someone else alluded to...this number has never actually been a reality. It's literally the number I use because its so big it cant be called underselling. #2 When you say all I'm doing is looking at roster counts and not who is and isn't active, and then you spit numbers back at me that I already used, it makes me wonder if you bothered to fully read the article, which extensively separates these groups. #3 Yes, I agree teams would average less TPE all around. That's not a problem. It's a feature. The incredibly high TPE totals around the league are a big part of why teams are currently averaging 5 send downs apiece. This is not a thing to protect. This isn't PBE. We're here to get players onto the field. Not protect the stashes of GMs. #4 No matter how many times you say this was the most pushed update in league history, it was the least active period for activity checks in 6 months. Representing it as a high point of activity in the face of that is not an argument that sits for me. #5 Recruitment sizes are a consistently debated topic. They've been referred to as a fluke for nearly 2 real life years running. I'm tired of hearing about this wolf. It hasn't eaten the village yet. Waiting until we are wildly overstuffed and have to panic expand is the main reason why the DSFL has had its biggest REAL problems. That being huge size fluctuations. Expanding across two seasons is a stable way to allow the DSFL to not be drained at once as it would really only remove about 40 people at max out of what was 75 stashed, without accounting for either S28 or S29's players. It's a stable way to get ahead of the curve and deal with the oversaturation of players. And yes no matter what else, any time the DSFL is in a position where its send downs outnumber its ACTUAL players, while ACTIVE ISFL rosters are at or near capacity, that's an oversaturation. |
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