12-27-2023, 11:33 PM
(This post was last modified: 12-29-2023, 11:13 AM by lemonoppy. Edited 1 time in total.)
Welcome to amkalytics. A (aspirationally) recurring feature where I use my limited knowledge in Excel to try and wrap my head around the DSFL and ISFL seasons. As this is the maiden voyage, a few points of housekeeping.
Why are you spelling analytics that way?
Analytics is a legitimate effort to use sound statistical modeling and predictive tools to make sense of data. This is, uh, not that. Amkalytics are to analytics what Miracle Whip is to mayonnaise. It’s mayonnaise adjacent, but you can’t really call it mayonnaise.
I found a discrepancy/mistake you made…
I appreciate all suggestions and notes. I am not smart enough to write Python scripts but smart enough not to be rigorous in my efforts to make charts and graphs for How The Dots Move. Any mistakes I make are canonically, a bit, and actually 100% there on purpose. (For real, though: if anyone can write me a script so I don’t have to manually sum snap counts, that’d be ideal, and I will cherish you in ways that feel appropriate to you.)
Why do I get the feeling that your write-up is biased?
The only thing more important to me than amkalytics is Honkaganda. I will take every chance I can to exalt the mighty Minnesota Grey Ducks, for whom I toil for TPE.
Let’s get into it. This week, we’re starting with a look around the league’s W-L record, and next week, we’ll dig into the defensive side of the ball.
The Pythagorean Expectation was a formula created by baseball analytics trailblazer Bill James. Wins and Losses in the standings don’t often get at HOW a team plays. Winning small and winning big are both W’s in the column, but it can over/understate how a team plays. The formula was adapted for football, and it considers a team’s Points For and Points Against to create an EXPECTED win percentage. This can be read as: “Based on how many points this team has allowed and scored to this point in the season, what would their win percentage be?” This can give us a glimpse into what teams may be better or worse than their record indicates.
How to read this chart:
The number associated with each team is the difference between their actual wins and their expected wins from the Pythagorean Expectations. Negative numbers mean their play in the sim is worse than their record; positive numbers mean they have been playing better than their record.
“He can’t keep getting away with this!” - Teams Overperforming in the Win Column.
Minnesota Grey Ducks: -1.4 Expected Wins (PF: 121, PA: 243, W/L: 5-5, Estimated W/L: 3.6-6.4)
I’ve had a complicated relationship with faith in my life. Questions and doubts nagged me throughout my college years. I watched a lot of weird documentaries in the 2010s about the Mayan prophecies, and I had a brief spell as a Reddit Atheist. When one wanders in the desert for decades, what happens when one stumbles upon a true oasis? How do skeptics wrap their arms around the truth they’ve long abandoned?
Amkalytics has unequivocally proven what I have always hoped: There is a loving, benevolent deity in the world, and they are a Minnesota Grey Ducks fan. In the entropy of the Simulation, how do the Grey Ducks and the rock-bottom DSFL offense scrape together a .500 season? They are the chosen flock. No roster formed against them shall prosper. Fortunate are we to witness miracles in our time if only we can recognize them.
Tijuana Luchadores: -.9 Expected Wins (PF: 295, PA: 161, 9-1, 8.1-1.9)
This feels like sour grapes, but the team with a choke-hold on the DSFL isn’t playing as well as their record. If they didn’t get lucky here and there, they’d fall to…still first in the DSFL. Tijuana has been a freight train through the season so far, demonstrating dominance on both sides of the all. While the performance on the field isn’t as unimpeachable as the record is, it’s still, uh, really good.
“Yup, that’ll do.” - Teams keeping up with their projected wins.
Kansas City Coyotes: -.2 Expected Wins (PF: 253, PA: 222, 6-4, 5.8-4.2)
Portland Pythons: +.1 Expected Wins (PF: 226, PA: 223, 5-5, 5.1-4.9)
Norfolk Seawolves: .3 Expected Wins (PF: 206, PA: 346, 2-8, 2.3-7.7)
The W-L column is on the money Coyotes, Pythons, and Seawolves: three teams in slightly different places.
The Coyotes are currently atop the DSFL, having spat in the face of the Minnesota Grey Ducks and their celestial pre-determination. With the DSFL North’s leading scoring offense and defense, their win-loss record is earned. Ripping off a four-game win streak after a four-game losing streak, they tangle with the Seawolves and then … the three best teams in the DSFL. In a row. They already beat the Luchadores once; can they hand them another loss in the season finale?
In a truly remarkable commitment to Buddhist principles of balance and impermanence, the Pythons have almost achieved the Net Zero season. A balanced record with almost the same number of points allowed as points scored. I’m not sure how the simulation, and its hallmark variance, has allowed such a feat to occur. If the Grey Ducks are the sign of monotheistic intervention and favor, maybe the Pythons are a counterpoint towards an eastern conception of the universe?
Lastly, our Seawolves . To quote my Arkansan Grandmother-In-Law: They come by it honestly. Apropos of their culinary-themed skill players, Benny Hanna and Fig Newton, the Seawolves have been feasted on by a brutal DSFL South. They are a few ticks better than their record, and if I was smart enough to do opponent-adjusted power ratings, they’d have a rosier outlook. Norfolk’s finest is hanging tough, and can take solace that they’ve gotten a few tough beats this semester.
“Always the Bridesmaid Never the Bride?” - The DSFL South Teams Sharpening Their Knives After Bad Beats
Bondi Beach Buccaneers: +.5 Expected Wins (PF: 246, PA: 189, 6-4, 6.5-3.5
Dallas Birddogs: +1 Expected Wins (PF: 276, PA: 194, 6-4, 7-3)
Both the Birddogs and the Buccaneers have a legitimate case for the 2nd best team in the DSFL. The slight increase in PF/PA gives Dallas a half-game nod in the quality of play exceeding their 6-4 record, but both teams are solid games above expectations compared to their 6-4 partner in Kansas City. Despite the Expectation formula favoring Dallas, Thor and company have handled Dallas and both meetings and still have a chance to knock down Tijuana to keep their post-season dreams alive.
“Why hast thou forsaken me?” - London Royals and the Cruelty of the Sim
London Royals: +1.7 Expected Wins (PF: 222, PA: 337, 1-9, 2.7 - 7.3)
Furthering the Python’s evidence of the Four Noble Truths, the sim has balanced the Touched by an Angel Grey Ducks with the London Royals . Despite having four fewer wins on the index, they have ROUGHLY the same expected win total as the 5-5 Ducksciples. They’ve lost five one-score games, had one VERY hard sim early in the season, and led the DSFL in passing on offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team played their way into an end of season expected .500 record. There are no moral victories in the ISFL, but there are in amkalytics.
Why are you spelling analytics that way?
Analytics is a legitimate effort to use sound statistical modeling and predictive tools to make sense of data. This is, uh, not that. Amkalytics are to analytics what Miracle Whip is to mayonnaise. It’s mayonnaise adjacent, but you can’t really call it mayonnaise.
I found a discrepancy/mistake you made…
I appreciate all suggestions and notes. I am not smart enough to write Python scripts but smart enough not to be rigorous in my efforts to make charts and graphs for How The Dots Move. Any mistakes I make are canonically, a bit, and actually 100% there on purpose. (For real, though: if anyone can write me a script so I don’t have to manually sum snap counts, that’d be ideal, and I will cherish you in ways that feel appropriate to you.)
Why do I get the feeling that your write-up is biased?
The only thing more important to me than amkalytics is Honkaganda. I will take every chance I can to exalt the mighty Minnesota Grey Ducks, for whom I toil for TPE.
Let’s get into it. This week, we’re starting with a look around the league’s W-L record, and next week, we’ll dig into the defensive side of the ball.
Lucky Ducks and Royal Flushes: Pythagorean Win Expectancies
The Pythagorean Expectation was a formula created by baseball analytics trailblazer Bill James. Wins and Losses in the standings don’t often get at HOW a team plays. Winning small and winning big are both W’s in the column, but it can over/understate how a team plays. The formula was adapted for football, and it considers a team’s Points For and Points Against to create an EXPECTED win percentage. This can be read as: “Based on how many points this team has allowed and scored to this point in the season, what would their win percentage be?” This can give us a glimpse into what teams may be better or worse than their record indicates.
How to read this chart:
The number associated with each team is the difference between their actual wins and their expected wins from the Pythagorean Expectations. Negative numbers mean their play in the sim is worse than their record; positive numbers mean they have been playing better than their record.
“He can’t keep getting away with this!” - Teams Overperforming in the Win Column.
Minnesota Grey Ducks: -1.4 Expected Wins (PF: 121, PA: 243, W/L: 5-5, Estimated W/L: 3.6-6.4)
I’ve had a complicated relationship with faith in my life. Questions and doubts nagged me throughout my college years. I watched a lot of weird documentaries in the 2010s about the Mayan prophecies, and I had a brief spell as a Reddit Atheist. When one wanders in the desert for decades, what happens when one stumbles upon a true oasis? How do skeptics wrap their arms around the truth they’ve long abandoned?
Amkalytics has unequivocally proven what I have always hoped: There is a loving, benevolent deity in the world, and they are a Minnesota Grey Ducks fan. In the entropy of the Simulation, how do the Grey Ducks and the rock-bottom DSFL offense scrape together a .500 season? They are the chosen flock. No roster formed against them shall prosper. Fortunate are we to witness miracles in our time if only we can recognize them.
Tijuana Luchadores: -.9 Expected Wins (PF: 295, PA: 161, 9-1, 8.1-1.9)
This feels like sour grapes, but the team with a choke-hold on the DSFL isn’t playing as well as their record. If they didn’t get lucky here and there, they’d fall to…still first in the DSFL. Tijuana has been a freight train through the season so far, demonstrating dominance on both sides of the all. While the performance on the field isn’t as unimpeachable as the record is, it’s still, uh, really good.
“Yup, that’ll do.” - Teams keeping up with their projected wins.
Kansas City Coyotes: -.2 Expected Wins (PF: 253, PA: 222, 6-4, 5.8-4.2)
Portland Pythons: +.1 Expected Wins (PF: 226, PA: 223, 5-5, 5.1-4.9)
Norfolk Seawolves: .3 Expected Wins (PF: 206, PA: 346, 2-8, 2.3-7.7)
The W-L column is on the money Coyotes, Pythons, and Seawolves: three teams in slightly different places.
The Coyotes are currently atop the DSFL, having spat in the face of the Minnesota Grey Ducks and their celestial pre-determination. With the DSFL North’s leading scoring offense and defense, their win-loss record is earned. Ripping off a four-game win streak after a four-game losing streak, they tangle with the Seawolves and then … the three best teams in the DSFL. In a row. They already beat the Luchadores once; can they hand them another loss in the season finale?
In a truly remarkable commitment to Buddhist principles of balance and impermanence, the Pythons have almost achieved the Net Zero season. A balanced record with almost the same number of points allowed as points scored. I’m not sure how the simulation, and its hallmark variance, has allowed such a feat to occur. If the Grey Ducks are the sign of monotheistic intervention and favor, maybe the Pythons are a counterpoint towards an eastern conception of the universe?
Lastly, our Seawolves . To quote my Arkansan Grandmother-In-Law: They come by it honestly. Apropos of their culinary-themed skill players, Benny Hanna and Fig Newton, the Seawolves have been feasted on by a brutal DSFL South. They are a few ticks better than their record, and if I was smart enough to do opponent-adjusted power ratings, they’d have a rosier outlook. Norfolk’s finest is hanging tough, and can take solace that they’ve gotten a few tough beats this semester.
“Always the Bridesmaid Never the Bride?” - The DSFL South Teams Sharpening Their Knives After Bad Beats
Bondi Beach Buccaneers: +.5 Expected Wins (PF: 246, PA: 189, 6-4, 6.5-3.5
Dallas Birddogs: +1 Expected Wins (PF: 276, PA: 194, 6-4, 7-3)
Both the Birddogs and the Buccaneers have a legitimate case for the 2nd best team in the DSFL. The slight increase in PF/PA gives Dallas a half-game nod in the quality of play exceeding their 6-4 record, but both teams are solid games above expectations compared to their 6-4 partner in Kansas City. Despite the Expectation formula favoring Dallas, Thor and company have handled Dallas and both meetings and still have a chance to knock down Tijuana to keep their post-season dreams alive.
“Why hast thou forsaken me?” - London Royals and the Cruelty of the Sim
London Royals: +1.7 Expected Wins (PF: 222, PA: 337, 1-9, 2.7 - 7.3)
Furthering the Python’s evidence of the Four Noble Truths, the sim has balanced the Touched by an Angel Grey Ducks with the London Royals . Despite having four fewer wins on the index, they have ROUGHLY the same expected win total as the 5-5 Ducksciples. They’ve lost five one-score games, had one VERY hard sim early in the season, and led the DSFL in passing on offense. I wouldn’t be surprised if this team played their way into an end of season expected .500 record. There are no moral victories in the ISFL, but there are in amkalytics.