06-04-2024, 02:53 PM
(This post was last modified: 06-08-2024, 10:09 PM by wetwilleh. Edited 1 time in total.)
I wanted to take a look at the accumulation of fantasy points on a weekly basis by player. The goal was to identify any players who have seen steady improvement over the course of the season, or more likely elevate possible strategic changes that may lead to deviations in fantasy scoring going forward.
I collected data from the weekly update scoring dump. This has the sum of points at each publish date for the fantasy update. This creates an issue in the case of simulation days where multiple weeks are simulated on the same day as was the case for sim weeks 3 and 4. For this analysis I straight lined the scoring between week 2 and 4. This will affect the slope and standard deviation, but won’t affect the weekly scoring average, and should be the least impactful (easy) decision to accomplish the main goal of highlighting recent trends. If I could build a dataset to do the scoring based on weekly stats we would get much higher visibility into what might be causing some of these trends (targets/points coming from high variance events), maybe a task for a different day.
Another thing to mention, this analysis won’t pick up “surprises” that have been consistently great (or poor) all season, we’re only looking at trends within the season. The “trend” is simply the slope of a linear fit predicting scoring by week. Sometimes the trend is just due to an extreme performance in one of the two most recent weeks, whether that was the case or if its something structural was based on my arbitrary whim and a quick investigation of the box scores over time. The maths very hand-wavy but I think it did help me find some variations that might be due to real changes in strategy and might even hold up going forward. You be the judge.
Honolulu Offense
What to do with the husk of Malik Brooks was a big question for Honolulu going into the season. In early weeks he produced respectably, but since week 6 it looks like he’s dead and buried, generating 0 fantasy points each of those weeks.
Who benefits from this? So far the running backs. It looks like Blaze is being used as a receiver though he really hasn’t accumulated much. David and Newton have both seen improvement in recent weeks, but more difficult to tell if that’s a structural change. I think the main story is they haven’t yet figured out how to replace Brooks, so you might see high variability from these players in the coming weeks.
Chicago Offense
The Butchers started the season with 7 straight wins led by dominant defense and a strong running attack. But in the last three weeks the script hasn’t been as smooth including their first loss of the season in week 8. During that time we’ve seen a shift in fantasy scoring from the running backs to the passing game.
This is largely a story of regression to the mean. Running backs over performing early, Nah’sim maybe underperforming a little bit early. Where there is a structural story is if going forward the defense and running game isn’t as dominant. If the Butchers need to play catch up a bit more and cant just pound the rock I wouldn’t expect the trend to hold, but I think we might hold roughly steady at this current mix of production.
Cape Town Offense
I think you knew you were signing up for a bumpy ride if you hitched your wagon to Thor’s star this season, but maybe not quite this bumpy. After a great start things got bleak fast, but numbers going up the last few weeks. I wanted to highlight two players who’ve made strong contributions during this 3 week bonanza. Harbinger-Marjin, J and Freduci, D. Harbinger-Marjin might be fitting in as a short yardage back hes had a pair of 1TD 40 yd games recently. Not fantasy rosterable but may affect other players. Freducci is a name I haven’t heard much, but hes stacked up 3 amazing games recently.
And at least for me I might have underappreciated how Thor’s variability would also influence the other offensive players. Knight and Freducci have at times generated great numbers but going forward they might be tied to Thor’s passing consistency.
San Jose Offense
After a somewhat slow start things are starting to hum for San Jose. Fisto’s blip in week 7 might just be a flicker, but I want to believe. One thing that’s maybe more ‘real’ is the distribution of volume between Orange Julius and Florida Man.
Julius started off admirably and has only continued to advance, while Florida Man is slowing down. This could be as simple as a td or two being swapped between them, but anecdotally it looks like targets are getting steered toward Julius a bit more.
Baltimore Offense
We had the version of the story where both lines go up, here’s the version where both go down. More than anything this is likely due to facing tough defenses the last two weeks in Sarasota and San Jose. But if you happen to be a big fan of Bessey there might be a story here about using him less in the passing game.
Bessey never had the volume to be rosterable, but he was getting passing targets and that has since dried up. Likely just coincidence it lines up with a broader decline in Baltimore fantasy scoring production, or a reaction to the different defenses they faced. If Bessey isn't secretly the key to the Baltimore offense and they continue to keep targets to him down you might expect a little lift for other skill position players in Bal when they face less difficult defenses. Skywalker shows a strong downward trend recently but I chalk that up to regression to the mean after overperforming in week 2 and the double sim day, weeks 3 and 4.
Offensive Line time!
I took a look through other position groups to try and see if there was any real movement, but I think week to week variation is a better explanation in most cases. There might be something going on in Berlin though.
Klaus von Reinherz is a very fantasy relevant tackle. But in the last few weeks some of his production may have been replaced by Burnt Toast. Sacks allowed can be a source of this sort of variation but looking through box scores it looks like some of the pancake opportunities are moving to Toast. Not sure if this is due to a structural change or something else. von Reinherz is where the TPE is so I wouldn't expect they are purposely steering opportunities away from him, but maybe just a more balanced approach, we don't see degradation of other offensive numbers from Berlin during this time.
I collected data from the weekly update scoring dump. This has the sum of points at each publish date for the fantasy update. This creates an issue in the case of simulation days where multiple weeks are simulated on the same day as was the case for sim weeks 3 and 4. For this analysis I straight lined the scoring between week 2 and 4. This will affect the slope and standard deviation, but won’t affect the weekly scoring average, and should be the least impactful (easy) decision to accomplish the main goal of highlighting recent trends. If I could build a dataset to do the scoring based on weekly stats we would get much higher visibility into what might be causing some of these trends (targets/points coming from high variance events), maybe a task for a different day.
Another thing to mention, this analysis won’t pick up “surprises” that have been consistently great (or poor) all season, we’re only looking at trends within the season. The “trend” is simply the slope of a linear fit predicting scoring by week. Sometimes the trend is just due to an extreme performance in one of the two most recent weeks, whether that was the case or if its something structural was based on my arbitrary whim and a quick investigation of the box scores over time. The maths very hand-wavy but I think it did help me find some variations that might be due to real changes in strategy and might even hold up going forward. You be the judge.
Honolulu Offense
What to do with the husk of Malik Brooks was a big question for Honolulu going into the season. In early weeks he produced respectably, but since week 6 it looks like he’s dead and buried, generating 0 fantasy points each of those weeks.
Who benefits from this? So far the running backs. It looks like Blaze is being used as a receiver though he really hasn’t accumulated much. David and Newton have both seen improvement in recent weeks, but more difficult to tell if that’s a structural change. I think the main story is they haven’t yet figured out how to replace Brooks, so you might see high variability from these players in the coming weeks.
Chicago Offense
The Butchers started the season with 7 straight wins led by dominant defense and a strong running attack. But in the last three weeks the script hasn’t been as smooth including their first loss of the season in week 8. During that time we’ve seen a shift in fantasy scoring from the running backs to the passing game.
This is largely a story of regression to the mean. Running backs over performing early, Nah’sim maybe underperforming a little bit early. Where there is a structural story is if going forward the defense and running game isn’t as dominant. If the Butchers need to play catch up a bit more and cant just pound the rock I wouldn’t expect the trend to hold, but I think we might hold roughly steady at this current mix of production.
Cape Town Offense
I think you knew you were signing up for a bumpy ride if you hitched your wagon to Thor’s star this season, but maybe not quite this bumpy. After a great start things got bleak fast, but numbers going up the last few weeks. I wanted to highlight two players who’ve made strong contributions during this 3 week bonanza. Harbinger-Marjin, J and Freduci, D. Harbinger-Marjin might be fitting in as a short yardage back hes had a pair of 1TD 40 yd games recently. Not fantasy rosterable but may affect other players. Freducci is a name I haven’t heard much, but hes stacked up 3 amazing games recently.
And at least for me I might have underappreciated how Thor’s variability would also influence the other offensive players. Knight and Freducci have at times generated great numbers but going forward they might be tied to Thor’s passing consistency.
San Jose Offense
After a somewhat slow start things are starting to hum for San Jose. Fisto’s blip in week 7 might just be a flicker, but I want to believe. One thing that’s maybe more ‘real’ is the distribution of volume between Orange Julius and Florida Man.
Julius started off admirably and has only continued to advance, while Florida Man is slowing down. This could be as simple as a td or two being swapped between them, but anecdotally it looks like targets are getting steered toward Julius a bit more.
Baltimore Offense
We had the version of the story where both lines go up, here’s the version where both go down. More than anything this is likely due to facing tough defenses the last two weeks in Sarasota and San Jose. But if you happen to be a big fan of Bessey there might be a story here about using him less in the passing game.
Bessey never had the volume to be rosterable, but he was getting passing targets and that has since dried up. Likely just coincidence it lines up with a broader decline in Baltimore fantasy scoring production, or a reaction to the different defenses they faced. If Bessey isn't secretly the key to the Baltimore offense and they continue to keep targets to him down you might expect a little lift for other skill position players in Bal when they face less difficult defenses. Skywalker shows a strong downward trend recently but I chalk that up to regression to the mean after overperforming in week 2 and the double sim day, weeks 3 and 4.
Offensive Line time!
I took a look through other position groups to try and see if there was any real movement, but I think week to week variation is a better explanation in most cases. There might be something going on in Berlin though.
Klaus von Reinherz is a very fantasy relevant tackle. But in the last few weeks some of his production may have been replaced by Burnt Toast. Sacks allowed can be a source of this sort of variation but looking through box scores it looks like some of the pancake opportunities are moving to Toast. Not sure if this is due to a structural change or something else. von Reinherz is where the TPE is so I wouldn't expect they are purposely steering opportunities away from him, but maybe just a more balanced approach, we don't see degradation of other offensive numbers from Berlin during this time.