*How to Win the Ultimus and Influence People

[Fangorn]

Greetings, aspiring ISFL legends and strategists! I am in the midst of my Masters dissertation (not in statistics, though the following will blow your mind) whilst sat at work and felt the need to procrastinate, so without further ado: -

If you have ever wondered what it takes to make your collection of semi-active footballing hopefuls to a confetti-showered Ultimus winner, then grab your notepad and a lucky charm, because I am about to reveal the (not so) secret formula to glory with lots of nice statistics at the end. I invite no criticism – constructive or otherwise - only positive praise. All categories, statistics and tables are included within this post (mostly at the end) and are from S25 (expansion to 14 teams) onwards unless otherwise stated.

The Ultimus Blue Print

Step 1: First things first, you want a quarterback who is… average. The numbers don’t lie.
The average Ultimus-winning quarterback throws for 4,263 yards, 31 touchdowns, and tosses in 12 interceptions for good measure. Ultimus winning quarterbacks don’t need to break records—they just need to be good enough. Remember, the moment your quarterback tries to lead the league in passing yards, you might as well start planning the end-of-season golf trip because no top passer has ever hoisted the Ultimus trophy. Be warned, glory hogs!

Step 2: Aim for Mediocrity—It’s the Sweet Spot Next, forget about being the absolute best.
The ideal Ultimus-winning team ranks, on average, 6th across all categories*. Striving for that #1 spot? Overrated. You want to be in the top third, but not at the top-top. It’s the Goldilocks zone—just right. Aim for a win/loss percentage of around 0.723 (the average win / loss % of Ultimus Winners), and you’re cooking with gas. Go higher, and you're on thin ice; go lower, and you're on the wrong end of history.
*See below stats tables

Step 3: Rely on Your Runner (But Not Too Much)
Your lead running back should ideally churn out 1,281 yards and 12 touchdowns (the average for Ultimus-winning runningbacks). But here’s the kicker: you don’t need a record-breaker. Sure, Danny Nedelko tops the lot and ran for 1,896 yards in S42 for the Outlaws , but the lowest rushing total by an Ultimus-winning back? A mere 801 yards by Bean Delphine Jr. for the Honolulu Hahalua (S44)  And guess what? They still won. Moral of the story: a balanced attack is your best friend.

Step 4: Defense Wins Championships (But Don’t Sweat the Small Stuff)
While a top-notch defense certainly helps, being the absolute best isn’t required. A defense ranking around 6th is your sweet spot. Yes, Honolulu Hahalua’s S44  and Cape Town Crash's S41 defense were the best Ultimus winning defenses for sacks (with 76), but don’t panic if your team is “only” middle-of-the-pack in certain stats. The worst defense (ranked in season) to win the Ultimus was the Arizona Outlaws in S38 (ranked 10th) but they still got the job done. They may have had the fewest interceptions (only 6, ranked 14th), but an Ultimus is an Ultimus.

Step 5: Embrace Your Inner Underdog
Now, here’s the golden nugget: pick Mr. Irrelevant rather than go for First Pick. You may notice this only increases your team’s win percentage by a whopping 0.024 in the next season versus 0.134 for the First Pick... And sure, it’s not a first-round pick, but who needs those when the statistics show that drafting Mr. Irrelevant has lead to 26 Ultimus wins (and 12 losses) within 5 seasons of being drafted? The numbers don’t lie. You’re statistically more likely to win within the next five seasons by picking last in the draft (26 wins, 12 losses) than by picking first (18 wins, 17 Ultimus losses). There is absolutely nothing statistically significant that would otherwise effect those numbers.

Step 6: Touchdowns > Everything
If you want to cut straight to the chase, focus on scoring. The most successful Ultimus teams tend to lead the league in total touchdowns (28% of the time). It turns out that crossing the goal line more often than your opponent correlates pretty well with winning championships. Who knew..?

Conclusion
So, there you have it—a foolproof, stat-backed formula for winning the Ultimus! Remember, it’s not about being the best; it’s about being just good enough in the right places. Keep your quarterback comfortably average, lean on a solid (but not spectacular) defense, and never underestimate the power of the draft’s last pick. And if you really want to win, just score more touchdowns. Who needs any formal education in statistics!

Good luck, and may the mediocrity be ever in your favour.

Though we are not quite done yet…

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Below is an assortment of novel or otherwise vaguely interesting statistics on Ultimus winners. Tweak your approach accordingly...

Best, Worst and Average Ultimus Winners

Miscellaneous 

• The average quarterback to win an Ultimus throws for 4,263 yards, 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in their winning season.
  
• The average lead running back to win an Ultimus rushes for 1,281 yards and 12 touchdowns in their winning season.
  
• An Ultimus winning team averages a ranking of 6th across all categories measured and a win / loss percentage of 0.723.
  
• The avereage win / loss percentage of Ultimus losers is 0.673.
  
• The average Ultimus winning defense ranks 6th across all categories measured.
  
• The number one passing quarterback / team in a season has never won the Ultimus.
  
• The team with the highest amount of tackles for loss in a season has never won the Ultimus.
  
• The Ultimus winners have had the best records in their winning season for total touchdowns on 28% of occasions, most sacks on 28% of occasions, most rushing yards on 24% of occasions, most rushing yards (by lead back) on 24% of occasions, (fewest) interceptions on 20% of occasions and highest passes defended on 20% of occasions.
  

Team (Best)

• Highest average rank of 4th across all categories – Cape Town Crash (S41) and Sarasota Sailfish (S27)
  
• Highest win / loss percentage is 0.875 – Arizona Outlaws (S40)
  

Team (Worst)

• The worst team to win the Ultimus (lowest average rank of 8th across all categories) is the Honolulu Hahalua (S31)
  
• Lowest win / loss percentage is 0.562 – San Jose Sabercats (S24, S25) , Yellowknife Wraiths (S26) , Honolulu Hahalua (S31) , Austin Copperheads (S45)
  

Quarterback (Best)

• 5,102 passing yards by Sam Howitzer of the New York Silverbacks (S32)
  
• 44 passing touchdowns by Preston Beatz of the Baltimore Hawks (S43)
  
• 5 interceptions by Donovan Winters III of the Arizona Outlaws (S46)
  

Quarterback (Worst)

• 3,602 passing yards by Monterey Jack of the San Jose Sabercats (S25)
  
• 22 passing touchdowns by Monterey Jack of the San Jose Sabercats (S25) 
  
• 18 interceptions by Wendell Sailor of the Arizona Outlaws (S37)
  

Running Back (Best)

• 1,896 rushing yards by Danny Nedelko of the Arizona Outlaws (S42)
  
• 21 touchdowns by Jay Cue Jr. of the Arizona Outlaws (S37)
  

Running Back (Worst)

• 801 rushing yards by Bean Delphine Jr. of the Honolulu Hahalua (S44) is the lowest by an Ultimus winning lead running back
  
• 6 touchdowns by Rando Cardrissian of the Yellowknife Wraiths (S28)
  

Offense (Best)

• 2,371 team rushing yards by the Yellowknife Wraiths (S26)
  
• 27 team rushing touchdowns by the Baltimore Hawks (S33)
  
• 62 total touchdowns by the Baltimore Hawks (S43) . and the Arizona Outlaws (S37)
  

Offense (Worst)

• 1,198 team rushing yards by the Sarasota Sailfish (S30)
  
• 10 team rushing touchdowns by the Arizona Outlaws (S38)
  
• 39 total touchdowns by the Honolulu Hahalua (S39)
  

Defense (Best)

• 76 sacks by the Honolulu Hahalua in (S44) and Cape Town Crash (S41)
  
• 134 passes defended by the Baltimore Hawks (S43)
  
• 26 interceptions by the Cape Town Crash (S41)
  
• 42 tackles for loss by the Honolulu Hahalua (S35)
  
• 6 defensive touchdowns by the Honolulu Hahalua (S36)
  
• The best seasonally ranked defense to win an Ultimus was the S41 Cape Town Crash (3) 
  

Defense (Worst)

• 38 sacks by the Yellowknife Wraiths (S26)
  
• 68 passes defended by the Yellowknife Wraiths (S26)
  
• 6 interceptions by the New Orleans Second Line (S49) and the Arizona Outlaws (S38)
  
• 21 tackles for loss by the Honolulu Hahalua (S44) and the Yellowknife Wraiths (S28)
  
• 1 defensive touchdown by the Honolulu Hahalua (S44 and S31)
  
• The worst seasonally ranked defense to win an Ultimus was the S38 Arizona Outlaws (10) 
  

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These following statistics are across S1-49 not just since expansion

Mr Irrelevant

• Ultimus winners had picked Mr Irrelevant in the previous season on 8 occasions – Arizona Outlaws (S1, S2, S30) , Baltimore Hawks (S10) ., New Orleans Second Line (S21, S26) , Yellowknife Wraiths (S28) , New York Silverbacks (S29)
  
• In the previous two seasons on 6 occasions – Arizona Outlaws (S2, S3, S16) , Baltimore Hawks (S11, S15) . and New Orleans Second Line (S27)
  
• In the previous three seasons on 4 occasions – Arizona Outlaws (S3) , Yellowknife Wraiths (S8) , New Orleans Second Line (S21) , Baltimore Hawks (S33)
  
• In the previous four seasons on 4 occasions – Baltimore Hawks (S10) ., New Orleans Second Line (S21) , New York Silverbacks (S32) , Yellowknife Wraiths (S39)
  
• In the previous five seasons on 4 occasions – Baltimore Hawks (S11) ., Cape Town Crash (S41) , Honolulu Hahalua (S44) , New Orleans Second Line (S48)
  

Therefore there have been 26 Ultimus winners that have picked Mr Irrelevant in the previous 5 seasons

• Ultimus losers has picked Mr Irrelevant in the previous season once – Cape Town Crash (S47)
  
• In the previous two seasons once – Yellowknife Wraiths (S18)
  
• In the previous three seasons 5 times – Baltimore Hawks (S9, S12, S35) ., Yellowknife Wraiths (S19) , Orange County Otters (S22)
  
• In the previous four seasons twice – Baltimore Hawks (S17) ., Yellowknife Wraiths (S20)
  
• And in the previous five seasons on three occasions – Yellowknife Wraiths (S21, S40) , Baltimore Hawks (S35)
  

Therefore there have been 12 teams reaching the Ultimus that have picked Mr Irrelevant in the previous 5 seasons.

First Pick

• Ultimus winners had First Pick in the previous season only once – Austin Copperheads (S20)
  
• In the previous two seasons on 3 occasions – Arizona Outlaws (S16) , Baltimore Hawks (S32, S33) .
  
• In the previous three seasons on 2 occasions – San Jose Sabercats (S14) , Baltimore Hawks (S33) .
  
• In the previous four seasons on 5 occasions – Orange County Otters (S4) , New Orleans Second Line (S9) , Austin Copperheads (S20) , Baltimore Hawks (S33) ., Arizona Outlaws (S46)
  
• In the previous five seasons on 7 occasions – Orange County Otters (S5) , San Jose Sabercats (S14) , Yellowknife Wraiths (S18) , Baltimore Hawks (S33) ., Honolulu Hahalua (S44) , Arizona Outlaws (S47) , New Orleans Second Line (S48)
  

Therefore there have been 18 Ultimus winners that have had First Pick in the previous 5 seasons.

• Ultimus losers have never had the First Pick in the previous season.
  
• Ultimus losers have had First Pick in the previous two seasons four times – Orange County Otters (S22) , Austin Copperheads (S23) , Colorado Yeti (S24) , Berlin Fire Salamanders (S38)
  
• In the previous three seasons three times – New Orleans Second Line (S8) , Colorado Yeti (S25) , New York Silverbacks (S43)
  
• In the previous four seasons six times – Yellowknife Wraiths (S4) , San Jose Sabercats (S15) , Cape Town Crash (S14) , Austin Copperheads (S23) , Berlin Fire Salamanders (S29) , Baltimore Hawks (S35)
  
• And in the previous five seasons on four occasions – Yellowknife Wraiths (S5) , New Orleans Second Line (S10) , Berlin Fire Salamanders (S29) , Baltimore Hawks (S35)
  

Therefore there have been 17 teams reaching the Ultimus that have had First Pick in the previous 5 seasons.

In all, those with First Pick have gone on to appear in circa 35 Ultimus Bowls (18 wins, 17 losses) which is 71% of all Ultimus Bowls.

Those picking Mr Irrelevant have gone on to appear in circa 38 Ultimus Bowls (26 wins, 12 losses) which is 78% of all Ultimus Bowls.

Mr Irrelevant increases a teams’ win / loss percentage by on average 0.024 the next season.

The First Pick increases a teams’ win / loss percentage by on average 0.134 the next season.

However, you are more likely to win an Ultimus in the next 5 seasons by picking Mr Irrelevant than you are by picking first.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.

Anyone want to take a $10m bet that the Copperheads   win the Ultimus in the next 5 seasons?

[br0_0ker]

youre more likely to win an Ultimus if you just won an Ultimus, who knew

[Baron1898]

feverishly writing down notes

[roquefort]

youre more likely to win an Ultimus if you just won an Ultimus, who knew

lmfao I was laughing at this every time he mentioned mr irrelevant

[Fangorn]

youre more likely to win an Ultimus if you just won an Ultimus, who knew

lmfao I was laughing at this every time he mentioned mr irrelevant

Firstly,

 

Secondly, ignorance is the mind killer.

• The average finish for a First Pick is 11th.
  
• The average finish for a Mr Irrelevant pick is 9th.
  

Is a 3.5% increased Ultimus winning chance per place likely to be observed across the board? Without delaying the start of my real work any further, I would say: I think not.