06-18-2020, 04:01 AM
(This post was last modified: 06-18-2020, 08:19 AM by IthicaHawk.)
For what this is based on, see my previous articles here:
For additional stat based content see here:
Previous Elo reports
Season 22 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk4 - Wk5 - Wk6 - Wk8 - Wk9 - Wk10 - Wk12 - Wk13 - S22 Review
Season 23 - Wk1 - Wk2
Week 2 and the number of undefeated teams falls to just two now. Likewise, there are two remaining winless teams and Chicago is not one of them. All six games scorelines were boring and not unique, no scorigami this week I'm afraid.
The big result this week is the 45-16 Second Line victory over freshly minted #2 ranked Copperheads. Copperheadsa were predicted a win but it was a slim chance if 55.88%. We expected a close game. Instead, Copperheads loose big and drop 54.39 Elo points, plunging them out of reach of that #1 spot they were so close to just days ago. Copperheads woe however was Second Lines weal as they jump up two spots.
The Butchers got their first win of the season over Liberty in a close fought match. Despite the winning margin being only 2 points, Butchers gain 24.46 points due to their much lower score. They still have some distance to cover but they are officially ranked higher now than the start of the season so, that's something.
The weekly rankings after week 2 are as follows:
1(=) 1,665.75
2(+1) 1,630.47
3(+1) 1,604.47
4(+2) 1,574.28
5(-3) 1,571.53
6(-1) 1,510.26
7(=) 1,472.84
8(+3) 1,459.87
9(=) 1,417.37
10(-2) 1,414.79
11(-1) 1,395.05
12(=) 1,285.53
Looking forward to Week 3 we see one of the hardest to predict weeks we've seen since I started tracking the Elo scores. Other than one matchup, every other one is sub 59% for the predicted victors. That's basically in the 'too close to call' zone.
Week 3
@
Fresh off their first win of the season, Butchers would like to continue that tactic and mount a climb up the scoreboard. Unfortunately it will be quite tricky as they face #2 ranked Wraiths on the road. A combination of all factors gives Wraiths a 91.37% chance of winning this week. It's not all bad new for the Butchers though. Since they are such heavy underdogs, a win would give them a significant Elo boost if they can pull it off. They'll need to dig deep to find it though.
@
Yeti are starting slow but steady, going 2-0 with two gentle defeats of lower ranked teams. It might not be splashy but they're undefeated so can't exactly fault them. Sailfish will be the highest ranked team they've faced yet at #7 in the tables. Yeti are one Wraiths defeat this week away from taking #2 spot should they take the W. Sailfish have that important home field advantage however so it won't be smooth sailing for Yeti. Yeti to go 3-0 59.47%.
@
Liberty slid down to 10th place, just behind the Hawks after their second straight defeat with the exact same scoreline, 19-17. Both teams are fairly evenly matched this week, only 3 points seperate them, however Liberty gets the advantage of being at home, which isn't to be discounted. Hawks had an upset win over the Wraiths in week 1 so we can't count them out either. Stats say Liberty get their first win of the season 58.89% but the memes say 'Hawks win 19-17'.
@
Hahalua has gone 0-2 to start the season, dropping games to both Otters and Copperheads, at the time, the number #1 and #3 teams in the league. A tough schedule start for the Hahalua and it doesn't get much easier as they face #6 ranked SaberCats. They have home field advantage on their side but SaberCats have 'being a better team' on their side so it should be a close match. SaberCats have a 57.18% chance of making Hahalua go 0-3.
@
Second Line are climbing again. After being on the verge of dropping out of the top 6 they're back up to #4 and in range of the top 3. Outlaws can't be discounted though as they got a strong underdog victory last week over the SaberCats showing they might be better than their current score shows. Second Line still have the edge though, despite being on the road, they are 57.06% likely to iwn.
@
Game of the week candinate here. #1 ranked Otters go against their challengers from just last week. If Copperheads hadn't dropped the ball in week 2 this could be very different right now. As it happens, Otters are nearly 100 points clear of the Copperheads at the moment so it's unlikely they get jumped right now but Copperheads will want to strike back and narrow that gap once again. This is their best chance to do it and not have to rely on other teams. Otters to hold on 54.20%
Summary
@ = 91.37%
@ = 59.47%
@ = 58.89%
@ = 57.18%
@ = 57.06%
@ = 54.20%
Season 22 - Wk1 - Wk2 - Wk3 - Wk4 - Wk5 - Wk6 - Wk8 - Wk9 - Wk10 - Wk12 - Wk13 - S22 Review
Season 23 - Wk1 - Wk2
Week 2 and the number of undefeated teams falls to just two now. Likewise, there are two remaining winless teams and Chicago is not one of them. All six games scorelines were boring and not unique, no scorigami this week I'm afraid.
The big result this week is the 45-16 Second Line victory over freshly minted #2 ranked Copperheads. Copperheadsa were predicted a win but it was a slim chance if 55.88%. We expected a close game. Instead, Copperheads loose big and drop 54.39 Elo points, plunging them out of reach of that #1 spot they were so close to just days ago. Copperheads woe however was Second Lines weal as they jump up two spots.
The Butchers got their first win of the season over Liberty in a close fought match. Despite the winning margin being only 2 points, Butchers gain 24.46 points due to their much lower score. They still have some distance to cover but they are officially ranked higher now than the start of the season so, that's something.
The weekly rankings after week 2 are as follows:
1(=) 1,665.75
2(+1) 1,630.47
3(+1) 1,604.47
4(+2) 1,574.28
5(-3) 1,571.53
6(-1) 1,510.26
7(=) 1,472.84
8(+3) 1,459.87
9(=) 1,417.37
10(-2) 1,414.79
11(-1) 1,395.05
12(=) 1,285.53
Looking forward to Week 3 we see one of the hardest to predict weeks we've seen since I started tracking the Elo scores. Other than one matchup, every other one is sub 59% for the predicted victors. That's basically in the 'too close to call' zone.
Week 3
@
Fresh off their first win of the season, Butchers would like to continue that tactic and mount a climb up the scoreboard. Unfortunately it will be quite tricky as they face #2 ranked Wraiths on the road. A combination of all factors gives Wraiths a 91.37% chance of winning this week. It's not all bad new for the Butchers though. Since they are such heavy underdogs, a win would give them a significant Elo boost if they can pull it off. They'll need to dig deep to find it though.
@
Yeti are starting slow but steady, going 2-0 with two gentle defeats of lower ranked teams. It might not be splashy but they're undefeated so can't exactly fault them. Sailfish will be the highest ranked team they've faced yet at #7 in the tables. Yeti are one Wraiths defeat this week away from taking #2 spot should they take the W. Sailfish have that important home field advantage however so it won't be smooth sailing for Yeti. Yeti to go 3-0 59.47%.
@
Liberty slid down to 10th place, just behind the Hawks after their second straight defeat with the exact same scoreline, 19-17. Both teams are fairly evenly matched this week, only 3 points seperate them, however Liberty gets the advantage of being at home, which isn't to be discounted. Hawks had an upset win over the Wraiths in week 1 so we can't count them out either. Stats say Liberty get their first win of the season 58.89% but the memes say 'Hawks win 19-17'.
@
Hahalua has gone 0-2 to start the season, dropping games to both Otters and Copperheads, at the time, the number #1 and #3 teams in the league. A tough schedule start for the Hahalua and it doesn't get much easier as they face #6 ranked SaberCats. They have home field advantage on their side but SaberCats have 'being a better team' on their side so it should be a close match. SaberCats have a 57.18% chance of making Hahalua go 0-3.
@
Second Line are climbing again. After being on the verge of dropping out of the top 6 they're back up to #4 and in range of the top 3. Outlaws can't be discounted though as they got a strong underdog victory last week over the SaberCats showing they might be better than their current score shows. Second Line still have the edge though, despite being on the road, they are 57.06% likely to iwn.
@
Game of the week candinate here. #1 ranked Otters go against their challengers from just last week. If Copperheads hadn't dropped the ball in week 2 this could be very different right now. As it happens, Otters are nearly 100 points clear of the Copperheads at the moment so it's unlikely they get jumped right now but Copperheads will want to strike back and narrow that gap once again. This is their best chance to do it and not have to rely on other teams. Otters to hold on 54.20%
Summary
@ = 91.37%
@ = 59.47%
@ = 58.89%
@ = 57.18%
@ = 57.06%
@ = 54.20%
Hamish MacAndrew #20 - Safety - Austin Copperheads - [Player Profile - Update Thread - Wiki page - Twitter]