S20 Draft: 5 Seasons On
Hello and welcome to my review of the S20 NSFL Draft class. Evaluating past draft classes is something that I enjoy being able to go back and do, and with five seasons having passed since the class that I was part of and us entering the sort of appropriate timeframe to be able to make a judgement call on the players we saw picked and what they've been able to bring to the league so far, and with only two more seasons before the class hits regression, what we can expect to see from them in the remaining seasons they are likely to have in the league. It's always fun to be able to look back and see how different things might have been if certain decisions had been made differently, and hopefully I'll be able to offer some insight into how things might have been able to change if they had played out slightly differently on the night. I don't think I'll be able to give too much insight into why teams made the picks they did because I wasn't actually active at the time of the draft, but hopefully we'll be able to piece together what teams were thinking based off the decisions they made, and whether or not they were successful in addressing the need that they had identified. So without any further ado, lets take a trip down memory lane and see what happened 5 seasons ago.
1st Overall: Kyle Idlewyld
Current TPE: 886
Draft ranking: 6th
Austin obviously recognised the importance of a strong presence on the defensive line, and they made a good pick in acquiring the player who has turned into the best defensive lineman in the draft in the years following. Idlewyld has been a Pro Bowler on multiple occasions, and has even been getting some success in terms of collecting awards with a couple of DLotY wins, so definitely has been able to have the kind of effect that they were hoping for when using the 1st overall pick on him in the draft. He's not quite the highest earner in the class anymore as he was at the time of the draft, but given the low level of TPE that's required to be effective at his position, he's in a good spot to maintain his success for many seasons to come. A good pick for the Copperheads, and one that should help keep them in contention for quite a long time to come.
2nd Overall: Desmond Scarlett
Current TPE: 1113
Draft ranking: 2nd
Drafted 2nd overall and currently 2nd in TPE, Scarlett was picked up by the Sabercats but didn't stay with the team for long before he was traded to the Arizona Outlaws. Despite his high level of TPE, Scarlett has not really achieved anything of note in the sim to date, which I'm sure is disappointing for him but there's enough time still to address that and get things back on track. A high TPE player (likely to be the highest TPE corner in the league next season), Scarlett has the potential to be a really good asset in the team, he just needs to get things together in the sim a little bit more and deliver on his potential.
3rd Overall: Reggie Culbertson
Current TPE: 305
Draft ranking: 15th
The first big miss in the class, Culbertson turned out to be an incredible bust for the Outlaws from the 3rd overall spot. Currently sitting at 305 TPE with no sign of improving on that any time soon, Culbertson was looked at as being the solution to the issues the Outlaws were having with their defensive line at the time but turned into being much of nothing unfortunately. Culbertson was released by Arizona and picked up by the Philadelphia Liberty as a depth presence on their defensive line where he still plays today, although it's unlikely that he's looked at as any sort of long term option for the team. A shame for sure as Culbertson looked on paper like a really good prospect before and immediately following the draft, but unfortunately he wasn't able to deliver on the promise that he showed.
4th Overall: Randy Vuxta
Current TPE: 801
Draft ranking: 7th
A pick that was impactful in what it brought to the Liberty beyond in sim performance, Vuxta as a player has enjoyed a decently successful career with the Liberty so far. Although he's yet to be recognised with an invitation to the Pro Bowl or a mention at an awards ceremony, Vuxta has been a solid option for the Liberty since joining the team, and his user has gone on to become the GM of the team, leading them forward after the staff who drafted him moved on to pastures new. The fact that Vuxta has taken on such an important role in the team beyond just what he's able to do in the sim will mean this is certainly a pick that they're very happy with looking back. Although he's fallen a little bit behind in TPE again, Vuxta still has a couple of seasons of earning left and should be able to be effective for a good few seasons if he keeps things ticking over from this point.
5th Overall: Jacoby Clay
Current TPE: 481
Draft ranking: 11th
Probably a draft selection that would be fair to label as a bust, the Copperheads would have had big hopes for Clay to be a potent part of their offense when they drafted him with the 5th overall pick. Unfortunately it didn't really work out like that as Clay stalled out with his development and not kicked on to becoming the number 1 receiver that the team would have viewed him as prior to the draft. Clay now finds himself as a depth receiver on the Honolulu Hahalua, a shame given the potential he had prior to the draft night but at least he has been able to carve out a role for himself in the league in some form. Seeing that someone with only 481 TPE is still 11th in the class really rams home how shallow of a draft this actually was, and the league has been very lucky to have seen the increased depth in classes and uptake in membership that it's enjoyed in seasons following this one.
6th Overall: Thor Kirkby
Current TPE: 587
Draft ranking: 10th
Thor Kirkby is a very interesting case when it comes to evaluation. When it comes to TPE, he's certainly not anything to write home about, falling a long way behind the best in his class and not showing the type of consistent development you would hope for out of a 6th overall pick. However, when it comes to his performance in the sim, Kirkby has been incredibly successful, earning multiple Pro Bowl selections and winning the Safety of the Year award this season after an incredible showing. His run this season would turn out to be his last with the Yeti, as Kirkby was left exposed in the S25 Expansion Draft where he was picked up by the New York Silverbacks. Kirkby will be in the position to lead a new secondary, and it's going to be interesting to see whether his level of performance in spite of not being the best earner will be able to continue in a new system. All in all, for any comments you can make about his earning, Kirkby's performance in the sim cannot be questioned, and what he's brought to the Yeti in his seasons with the team has been incredibly important for their recent run of success.
7th Overall: Darrel Williams
Current TPE: 1074
Draft ranking: 3rd
A great value pickup given his draft position, Williams has been one of the most consistent earners of TPE in his class in the years that have followed the draft, pushing him past the 1000 TPE mark with two more seasons remaining. A perfect combination of strong earning and in sim success, Williams has been a Pro Bowl player in seasons gone by and left no doubt that he was one of the best draft picks in the class. After several seasons with the Hawks, Williams made the move to join the Yeti in free agency last offseason, where he turned in another solid season.
8th Overall: Hal Fassingit
Current TPE: 235
Draft ranking: 16th
The third of Austin's first round draft picks, Fassingit makes for another interesting player to try and form an opinion on given the fact that he earned a pretty embarrassing 235 TPE in the five seasons following the draft, but his player has actually been pretty effective in the sim. Earning a spot at the Pro Bowl as a defensive end, he's since position switched to play as an offensive lineman for the team which I imagine was something made necessary due to a particular need that the team had. Although they definitely could have picked a player who would have brought more to the team in terms of contribution, it seems like Fassingit has been successful as a role player for the team, and given the weakness of this as a draft class, it's not an awful pick for them to have made in hindsight.
9th Overall: Blake Gragg
Current TPE: 185 (retired)
Draft ranking: n/a
Now this was an almighty bust of a pick for the Wraiths here. Gragg amounted to absolutely nothing in his time in the league, failing to even reach 200 TPE and never playing a game with the Wraiths after his development ground totally to a halt. Gragg officially called time on his career recently, throwing in the towel and admitting that his career had nowhere left to go based on the very disappointing start that it had. Always a shame to see a young career pan out the way Gragg's did, hopefully his user is able to come back to the league at some point and bring in a player who turns out to be a bit more successful at what he wants to do.
10th Overall: Victor Moreno
Current TPE: 328
Draft ranking: 14th
Another pretty rough pick for Austin given that they used a 1st on a guy who has never really amounted to the kind of player you would have hoped for based on his draft position, but given what was actually left on the board at that point it wasn't really the most horrible pick you could have made. Moreno has turned into a pretty solid reserve cornerback, definitely not the kind of player you would value as someone to take on one of an opponent's best receivers, but serviceable as a depth piece on the bottom of the roster or practice squad. In most classes, certainly those we've seen recently, picking up a player of this level with a first round pick would be seen as a huge whiff, but given what this draft had to offer it actually could have been worse.
We've worked our way through the entire first round of the draft now, and I'll be honest with you, it isn't great from this point out. My thoughts from here are it would make more sense to focus on the players taken in the second round or later who went on to enjoy some success in the league (or even just stayed active) rather than having to try and rewrite the same thing for a bunch of different inactives. So from here on out, we're going to be working our way down but only focussing on those players who are actually deserving of our time and attention. Let's get back into it.
13th Overall: Warren Stephens
Current TPE: 725
Draft ranking: 8th
A solid pick for the Liberty in the second round, Warren Stephens enjoyed a solid few seasons in the league in terms of play and development before he made the surprising announcement during the offseason that he would be retiring from the league after the upcoming season. Stephens had grown into a useful part of a young Philadelphia defense, but made the surprising move to join the Yeti in the past offseason, obviously feeling that they had more to offer in terms of success and development than the Liberty did. Stephens' career so far had all the makings of being a solid one in the league, so it was surprising to see him call time on it in the way that he did, but given the quality (or lack of) that we've seen from this draft, he's certainly going to be looked back on as one of the better picks that were made.
14th Overall: Venus Powers
Current TPE: 1122
Draft ranking: 1st
This one turned out to be a real steal for the Liberty, as they were able to draft the TPE leader in the class in the middle of the second round. Powers has been a force in the league, developing into one of the premier kickers in the league and seeing a lot of success when it comes to individual awards and Pro Bowl appearances. Unfortunately for the Liberty, this success has come as part of the Honolulu Hahalua after they selected Powers in the S22 Expansion Draft, from where she's been able to develop into one of the most recognisable faces on the team. The fact that Powers' position isn't really seen as in demand in the league will probably explain why she fell so far in the draft, but either way she definitely should be seen as one of the biggest steals of this draft class.
16th Overall: Silver Banana
Current TPE: 613
Draft ranking: 9th
The second kicker taken in the class, Silver Banana hasn't earned as much TPE as some players in this class but he's still been able to establish himself as one of the premier kickers in the ISFL. A reliable and recognisable presence on the Yeti during the last few seasons, Banana has turned into a very solid pick for the Yeti and if he can continue his career for some time to come then he'll be a great pickup given his draft spot.
17th Overall: Galf Wilf
Current TPE: 890
Draft ranking: 5th
Wilf's draft spot was earned through merit of him being the co-GM of the Outlaws at the time, which meant that the team acquired a very high quality player with a later pick in the draft. He's continued his development at a good pace since being drafted, and is currently sitting at 5th in his class in TPE, which really shows the level of earning he's been able to maintain for a long time. The fact that he stepped down as GM not long after this draft meant that the Outlaws were really able to make a great acquisition stealing Wilf with such a late pick, and it's one that's definitely helped them get to the spot they're in now.
20th Overall: Awkward Sexjoke
Current TPE: n/a (retired)
Draft ranking: n/a (retired)
The last pick of the second round of the draft was used on another GM player, this time Awkward Sexjoke was taken by the Austin Copperheads. Sexjoke earned well during his career and was off to a fairly strong start after earning a Pro Bowl selection, but things unfortunately didn't quite pan out as he retired at the end of S24. Although his time in the league is done, Sexjoke is definitely deserving of some attention based on what he was able to do in the short space of time that he was an active player. A solid value pickup that the Copperheads were able to make thanks to the workings of the GM rule.
33rd Overall: Jamie Nkiah
Current TPE: 974
Draft ranking: 4th
Probably a bit biased about this one seen as he is my own player, but I think the selection of Jamie Nkiah at 33rd overall in the draft certainly makes for one interesting storyline. I had created this player a few weeks before the draft, where he was a waiver pickup by the Myrtle Beach Buccaneers, and honestly had pretty much forgotten I'd made the player immediately after and went on to earn absolutely no TPE beyond the 50 starting TPE prior to the draft. I was picked up as an inactive by the Outlaws in the 4th round just to get through the undrafted players, the team obviously having no expectation of me being able to offer anything, and after getting a PM from SwagSloth saying he'd drafted me, I decided to come back and give this player a proper go. I've managed to claw my way up to 4th in the class in TPE since then which is definitely something I'm proud of, and with another two seasons of good earning I should have enough to set Nkiah up to be a decent player even after regression starts taking a hit. Definitely hard to be super impartial on this one but I think given the extraordinary circumstances around the pick and the rate that I've earned at since then, I'd say that Nkiah is definitely the biggest steal in this draft, and it'd honestly be hard to find a bigger steal in most other drafts given the fact that 3 or 4 picks either side of this one were all 50 TPE inactives. I plan on maxing out Jamie's steal status by taking him to the maximum career length in the league possible, and hope that in that time he's got some good seasons ahead of him still to be played out.
So how would the draft have gone based on what we know now? If we were to redraft the first round based solely on TPE (factoring everything else in would be too long and difficult for me to think about), this is how things would now be looking.
1. Venus Powers
2. Desmond Scarlett
3. Darrel Williams
4. Jamie Nkiah
5. Galf Wilf
6. Kyle Idlewyld
7. Randy Vuxta
8. Warren Stephens
9. Silver Banana
10. Thor Kirkby
The main thing that comes out of this redraft is quite how scary the Copperheads defense comes out of it looking. Wilf, Stephens and Kirkby alone make for a pretty elite defensive unit, and add probably the best kicker in the league in Powers into the mix and the team would look pretty damn scary. The Liberty switching things up and having Nkiah on the team instead of Vuxta would definitely leave them in a less advantageous than they're in now based on what his user has brought to the team during his time as GM. It would also leave the Wraiths in the interesting spot of having two top tier kicker options, and the Yeti walking away with an even more stacked defensive line than they have already by picking up Idlewyld at 6th overall. Obviously this is based only on TPE and when evaluating the class in terms of success, there's a lot more thought that needs to be put into things but it's interesting to see how things could have looked if teams took nothing but earning of TPE into consideration.
I'm going to end the article by talking about the teams that I think were the biggest winners and losers of the draft. Essentially, we'll give some thought to the players that teams were actually able to acquire with the picks that they had during the draft, and how good a job they did of bringing in elite talent to their organisation based on the opportunity that they had. Let's get into it.
THE WINNERS
Although they aren't still on their team, the Liberty were able to acquire a very solid defensive player in Warren Stephens with a pick in the middle of the second round, and added a future GM with their first round pick. Given that this was far from the strongest class you're ever likely to see, I think it's fair to say that the Liberty did really well to come away from things with the pieces that they did based on the picks that they owned.
I was hesitant about adding the Outlaws in here because of the colossal swing and miss they made drafting Culbertson third overall, but the fact that they were able to add two top 5 TPE players in Wilf and Nkiah with the 17th and 33rd overall picks means it's hard to not look at them as having a good night at the draft. The fact that they now also have the 2nd highest earner in the class in Desmond Scarlett on their team only adds to the argument that this was a big class for the Outlaws and their future.
The Hawks drafted two of the top 3 earners in the class. It's legitimately quite sad to see that neither of them are still a part of the franchise that drafted them, but their GMs obviously did a great job of recognising the talent that was available and making very good value picks, especially when you factor in that they were far from the earliest team to make a pick.
THE LOSERS
It's hard to say their draft was a total failure when they made a really good pick with 1st overall, but the Copperheads whiffed on a lot of picks in this draft. Making 3 pretty bad picks in the first round alone certainly makes it hard for this draft class to be looked at as anything other than a net loss for the Copperheads when you think about what some better drafting would have been able to do for them. They actually won an Ultimus not long after this class, but the fact that they could have possibly established themselves as an insurmountable force for some time if they'd been able to better use the assets available to them will be something that I imagine will weigh on the head of the GMs for some time.
Tough to really shit on Yellowknife too much here as they didn't have a ton to work with, but that means you have to try and get good value with what's available to you. And the Wraiths did anything but find value, drafting a colossal bust in the first round and leaving themselves without a player to add to their roster at all from this class. Definitely not catastrophic to the team because I doubt they were really placing a lot of value on this class, but they really could have done a lot better and I'm sure they'll be kicking themselves when they look back at this one based on what they could have been able to add if they'd used their pick a little better.
That takes us to the end of our evaluation of the S20 draft class. Part of me thought that this point might be a little bit premature to start looking back, but given the fact that the class has already set out a pretty clear hierachy of talent with two seasons to go before regression, I think we've definitely been able to get some value and insight from looking at things. As mentioned before, I was inactive before the draft happened so missed out on a lot of information that would have given some more insight but I think going through it in this way has definitely taught me a thing or two about what was out there at the time. Hope you guys enjoyed reading this one, if people thought it was good I'll probably look into doing another one for a different draft class when the time comes for me to try and earn some more money once again.
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