10-16-2020, 10:01 AM
(This post was last modified: 10-17-2020, 04:04 AM by Asked Madden.)
So, its Week 6 and you’re 100 points behind the first place in your group. That stud RB hasn’t popped, your WRs are meh, and don’t even get you started on how TEs have performed so far this season. You missed the Kane-Maika’I bonanza after Honolulu popped off against NOLA in Week 2, and waivers – to be frank – were never really your thing.
(Never your thing until a charming someone created a fantasy football discord bot that now has a gentle reminder in your LR’s bot channel every 1 hour or so that you are failing at this aspect of our sim league.)
Sound familiar? Welcome to the life of most ISFL fantasy football players as we climb towards the midway point of the ISFL fantasy football (and sim football) season. This article is for you! Using the data I’m pulling regardless for the discord bot, I’ve decided to give you a hand and outline some waiver prospects who might just turn your season around (should they be available in your league).
I’m going to run down each position from RB to FB and show you the waiver wire adds I’d be targeting in each group based on 1) their league-wide group availability (it has to be lowered than 60% to be mentioned in this article) and 2) their market share – which any fantasy football lifer knows is the data king of predicting performance (need those targets to make production happen).
For each position, you’ll be able to see the top 10 of that position so far for fantasy football purposes, plus a break down of their market share to date.
And for those interested, you can retrieve all this data now from the ISFLFantasyFootball discord bot. If you haven't added it to your server yet, here's the link. When you use !free to check on free agents, it will show their average season market share. When you pull up a player with !ffplayer, it will show their weekly market share to date. And a whole new command lets you access just market share information. Here’s the new command:
Runningbacks
These are the top 10 running backs from a fantasy points perspective heading into Week 7. Note this doesn’t include FBs – but the top fullbacks (Kane-Maika’I, Skyline, Phillips, Nakumura) are all taken in over 60% of leagues anyways. But this list would include all four of those names otherwise. The actual order (for just RBs) is as follows:
Richard Gilbert – RB – Colorado – Available in 92% of all Groups
This is a must grab situation if you want to get in on the Colorado Yeti offense – which I think most owners should be eyeing heading into the halfway mark. The Yeti have the best rushing offense in terms of yards this season (and one of the best passing offenses) and still don’t lead the league in offensive points. There’s room for the offense to regress upwards.
What about the Williams affect, you ask? It seems that the Yeti are rolling with a RB committee at the position, and its harming Darrel Williams’ fantasy owners. Here’s the market share between the two as of Week 6:
Most fantasy managers correctly picked Colorado to be a contender this season with a strong offense – they just went almost unanimously with Williams as their RB of choice from the Colorado backfield. Gilbert may not keep up this blistering pace (6 TDs on 95 attempts for a TD every 15 or so attempts, best in the league) and regression might come – but if Colorado is running a run-heavy playbook at the goal line, who’s going to argue to grabbing a piece of that pie?
If I’m betting, I’m thinking that Colorado sticks with what works and continues to use both backs heavily. And given the offensive powerhouse they’ve been this season, I’d say grab a piece with Gilbert while he’s available (which is in 92% of all groups) if you’re not a Williams owner.
Mathias Hanyadi – RB – YKW – Available in 50% of Groups
Hanyadi, owned in only half of the groups in the league, has the fourth highest market share out of all running backs, owning 55% of Yellowknife’s touches on average. Besides Weeks 3+4 where he dipped to only 37% market share (ceding to a committee with Skyline and his QB Jack), Hanyadi is clearly the go-to option in Yellowknife and there’s value to be had there.
Over the course of the last 6 weeks, he’s put up decent numbers – popping of course in Week 5 with 2 touchdowns – but he’s averaged well over 4 yds per carry and he’s owning the Yellowknife rush attempts overall. If you are saddled with an RB you’d rather drop, then Hanyadi might be your guy. He’s certainly the most known commodity on the waiver wire in terms of week to week production, and he’s got the highest floor for that reason.
If you’re needy …
Julio Tirtawidjaja – RB – CHI – Available in 97% of Groups
Chicago’s offense has been a little stagnant, so kudos for Tirtawidjaja amassing a nice 71.6 fantasy points as of Week 6. He’s in a committee with Baby Yoda, but he’s been the one making the most of redzone opportunities and goal line rushes – amassing a TD for every 28 attempts and rushing for just under 4 yards per attempt.
While Yoda is certainly a piece of the backfield, he’s still growing into the role and putting up under 3.5 yards per carry. I’d say that Tirtawidjaja is going to regress upwards into a larger chunk of touchdowns between the two – making him a worthwhile flyer for needy fantasy managers.
Danny King ® – RB – BER – Available in 100% of Groups
This … wouldn’t be my first choice, but you can’t argue with the numbers and Danny’s put them up. Props to him for doing this as a rookie on an expansion team, but he’s the 10th best running back in the entire league as of Week 6 – and not owned a single fantasy team.
So should you grab him? The case for is built on his production to point: 67.4 fantasy points to date and keeping steady around 50% of market share for Berlin’s nascent offense. He’s earning TDs right around league average – roughly 31 attempts for each touchdown he’s got. And he’s efficient, marking 4.3 yards per carry. Those TDs only started piling up recently, with 2 in Week 6.
All not bad for a rookie – although the case against is pretty solid as well. His Week 6 and 2 TD performance gave King 17 more points to move him into this top 10 spot. If it wasn’t for that week, he wouldn’t be mentioned. And the schedule doesn’t get easier here in out for Berlin, as they play away versus some good teams win Colorado, Chicago and Honolulu.
What about Petrongolo?
It’s a committee – as of Week 6, both have identical 93 rushing attempts (Petrongolo slightly more yards per carry, while King has pulled in the TDs). Now it’s a committee on Berlin – so you’re not looking at a whole lot of positive game scripts or high value situations. Its damaging to both Petrongolo and King, from a fantasy perspective. But Petrongolo is owned in 81% of Groups while his committee-mate King is owned in none.
So if you’re needy and want to take a flyer with the potential to differentiate you from the league, Danny King might be your waiver target.
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Wide Receivers
These are the top 10 fantasy wide receivers heading into Week 7:
I didn’t bother pulling drop data from the sim, which would definitely have helped paint a fuller picture, but we’ll use what’s readily available – number of catches. Here’s my top waiver adds going into Week 7:
Tychondrius Hood – WR – SJS – Available in 89% of Groups
We’ll start with Hood, the number 1 wide receiver available in most leagues by fantasy points scored to date. While San Jose has been picking up wins, it hasn’t been an absolute gunshow by the passing offense – 223 yards per average puts them well behind most of the pack. Despite that, Hood has managed to find the endzone an amazing 5 times already in 6 weeks – much to the detriment of DTF owners.
Now there’s certainly room for decline, after all regression should kick and reduce the number of TDs that Hood is picking up and return some of them to DTF. But if you look at where the targets have been falling, Hood has consistently been a WR1/2 for San Jose. And he’s making it work.
Is it unlikely that Hood ends the season with 11 touchdowns? Sure, but its not impossible given his usage. If you’re unsatisfied with your WR3 and are considering a change – Hood provides good value available for almost all groups.
Thomas Passmann – WR – AZ – Available in 47% of Groups
Not as widely available, Thomas Passman has been consistently used in an otherwise volatile Arizona receiving corps that hasn’t shied away from targeting their running backs or tight ends, often eating into the targets of other wide receivers. Evans, for instance, is the most consistent WR1 on Arizona despite being a tight end. Saba Donut has a high ceiling but WR2 floor. Evans and Donut are both owned in 100% and 92% of groups respectively, so fantasy owners looking to get in on Arizona would have to look at Passman.
Although the market share has been declining as Arizona’s Jay Cue began favoring Donut slightly more after the double header, Passman has done most of his damage taking advantage of redzone opportunities (or making them with blistering 43 yard TD scores) – he’s got 4 TDs to lead the Arizona offense.
Is regression likely? Possibly – I’d rather hold on Evans and Donut than take a flyer with Passman, but then again the TDs could signal a playcalling decision to have Passman in advantageous setups in the redzone. Or its complete chance. This one’s a bit of a gamble for fantasy managers.
Joshua Campbell ® – WR – BAL – Available in 89% of Groups
Speaking of gambles, here’s a rookie wide receiver out of Baltimore that has taken the 8th spot on the top 10 wide receivers, despite sharing the field with fellow rookie wide receiver Howlett (2nd ranked fantasy wide receiver going into Week 7). How is Baltimore sustaining two fantasy WR1s? The best pass offense in yards per game in the ISFL certainly helps, as Fujiwara has not been afraid to gun it this season. They’re first in receiving yards and fourth in passes caught.
Campbell has made the most of his targets, with 4 touchdowns on 30 receptions. By receptions alone, Campbell would make a WR2 and his frequency of targeting means that he has high upside in a Baltimore offense that is committed to getting the ball through the air to its rookie wide receiving corps.
Campbell’s in a battle for looks with Brown ® and Lewandowski, all three competing for WR2 on the offense behind Howlett, but with 7 less receptions on the season than Campbell for Brown and a difficult 8.8 avg yards per catch for Lewandowski, I’d bet that Campbell has wedged his way into the WR2 status and a worthwhile add for WR3 hungry fantasy teams. The volume will be there and his production to date shows no signs of slowing.
If you’re needy …
Sean Snyder ® – WR – NY – Available in 97% of Groups
This is a deep add, flyer, looking for a moonshot kind of pick. Why? New York hasn’t been scaring too many defenses through the air (12th ranked pass offense for yards) or points (12th ranked offense there too). They’re also bottom of the league for receptions – 3rd last ahead of Orange County and Philadelphia.
But in that nascent offense, Snyder has the potential to be a good add for a team with a weak WR3 situation. He’s climbed up the market share report week after week, with a steady climb from a flex option to potential WR1/2 targets and receptions – including 3 receptions for 18 yards and TD (Snyder’s 5th!) in Week 6. Out of New York’s 13 TDs total this season from their offense, Snyder has 5 of them.
While I’m not sure he can keep it up, the market share steadily climbing means that New York may be interested in winning what battles they can this season – including potentially giving their star rookie wide receiver some hardware and every stat they can increase. He’s a high risk add with a very low floor – but winning upside.
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Tight Ends
Quick Hit Tight Ends:
DEF and K
Quick Hit Defenses:
Good luck in Week 7 and onwards!
(Never your thing until a charming someone created a fantasy football discord bot that now has a gentle reminder in your LR’s bot channel every 1 hour or so that you are failing at this aspect of our sim league.)
Sound familiar? Welcome to the life of most ISFL fantasy football players as we climb towards the midway point of the ISFL fantasy football (and sim football) season. This article is for you! Using the data I’m pulling regardless for the discord bot, I’ve decided to give you a hand and outline some waiver prospects who might just turn your season around (should they be available in your league).
I’m going to run down each position from RB to FB and show you the waiver wire adds I’d be targeting in each group based on 1) their league-wide group availability (it has to be lowered than 60% to be mentioned in this article) and 2) their market share – which any fantasy football lifer knows is the data king of predicting performance (need those targets to make production happen).
For each position, you’ll be able to see the top 10 of that position so far for fantasy football purposes, plus a break down of their market share to date.
And for those interested, you can retrieve all this data now from the ISFLFantasyFootball discord bot. If you haven't added it to your server yet, here's the link. When you use !free to check on free agents, it will show their average season market share. When you pull up a player with !ffplayer, it will show their weekly market share to date. And a whole new command lets you access just market share information. Here’s the new command:
Code:
!msr [position acronym] – see the top 10 market share leaders (season average) for that position. Without an acronym, it shows just the top 10 overall (which are all RB’s for the most part)
Runningbacks
These are the top 10 running backs from a fantasy points perspective heading into Week 7. Note this doesn’t include FBs – but the top fullbacks (Kane-Maika’I, Skyline, Phillips, Nakumura) are all taken in over 60% of leagues anyways. But this list would include all four of those names otherwise. The actual order (for just RBs) is as follows:
- Watts ®, Z.- RB – AUS - 101.9 pts - 89% rostered
- Gilbert, R.- RB – COL - 99.0 pts - 8% rostered
- Lackson, J. – RB – SJS - 84.3 pts - 100% rostered
- Owens, A. - RB - NY - 75.7 pts - 92% rostered
- Chan, R. - RB - SAR - 74.0 pts - 81% rostered
- Tirtawidjaja, J. - RB - CHI - 71.6 pts - 3% rostered
- Petrongolo, J. - RB - BER - 70.5 pts - 81% rostered
- Toriki, M. – RB - NO - 69.4 - 100% rostered
- Hanyadi, M. - RB - YKW - 68.9 pts - 50% rostered
- King ®, D. - RB - BER - 67.4 pts - 0% rostered
Richard Gilbert – RB – Colorado – Available in 92% of all Groups
This is a must grab situation if you want to get in on the Colorado Yeti offense – which I think most owners should be eyeing heading into the halfway mark. The Yeti have the best rushing offense in terms of yards this season (and one of the best passing offenses) and still don’t lead the league in offensive points. There’s room for the offense to regress upwards.
What about the Williams affect, you ask? It seems that the Yeti are rolling with a RB committee at the position, and its harming Darrel Williams’ fantasy owners. Here’s the market share between the two as of Week 6:
Most fantasy managers correctly picked Colorado to be a contender this season with a strong offense – they just went almost unanimously with Williams as their RB of choice from the Colorado backfield. Gilbert may not keep up this blistering pace (6 TDs on 95 attempts for a TD every 15 or so attempts, best in the league) and regression might come – but if Colorado is running a run-heavy playbook at the goal line, who’s going to argue to grabbing a piece of that pie?
If I’m betting, I’m thinking that Colorado sticks with what works and continues to use both backs heavily. And given the offensive powerhouse they’ve been this season, I’d say grab a piece with Gilbert while he’s available (which is in 92% of all groups) if you’re not a Williams owner.
Mathias Hanyadi – RB – YKW – Available in 50% of Groups
Hanyadi, owned in only half of the groups in the league, has the fourth highest market share out of all running backs, owning 55% of Yellowknife’s touches on average. Besides Weeks 3+4 where he dipped to only 37% market share (ceding to a committee with Skyline and his QB Jack), Hanyadi is clearly the go-to option in Yellowknife and there’s value to be had there.
Over the course of the last 6 weeks, he’s put up decent numbers – popping of course in Week 5 with 2 touchdowns – but he’s averaged well over 4 yds per carry and he’s owning the Yellowknife rush attempts overall. If you are saddled with an RB you’d rather drop, then Hanyadi might be your guy. He’s certainly the most known commodity on the waiver wire in terms of week to week production, and he’s got the highest floor for that reason.
If you’re needy …
Julio Tirtawidjaja – RB – CHI – Available in 97% of Groups
Chicago’s offense has been a little stagnant, so kudos for Tirtawidjaja amassing a nice 71.6 fantasy points as of Week 6. He’s in a committee with Baby Yoda, but he’s been the one making the most of redzone opportunities and goal line rushes – amassing a TD for every 28 attempts and rushing for just under 4 yards per attempt.
While Yoda is certainly a piece of the backfield, he’s still growing into the role and putting up under 3.5 yards per carry. I’d say that Tirtawidjaja is going to regress upwards into a larger chunk of touchdowns between the two – making him a worthwhile flyer for needy fantasy managers.
Danny King ® – RB – BER – Available in 100% of Groups
This … wouldn’t be my first choice, but you can’t argue with the numbers and Danny’s put them up. Props to him for doing this as a rookie on an expansion team, but he’s the 10th best running back in the entire league as of Week 6 – and not owned a single fantasy team.
So should you grab him? The case for is built on his production to point: 67.4 fantasy points to date and keeping steady around 50% of market share for Berlin’s nascent offense. He’s earning TDs right around league average – roughly 31 attempts for each touchdown he’s got. And he’s efficient, marking 4.3 yards per carry. Those TDs only started piling up recently, with 2 in Week 6.
All not bad for a rookie – although the case against is pretty solid as well. His Week 6 and 2 TD performance gave King 17 more points to move him into this top 10 spot. If it wasn’t for that week, he wouldn’t be mentioned. And the schedule doesn’t get easier here in out for Berlin, as they play away versus some good teams win Colorado, Chicago and Honolulu.
What about Petrongolo?
It’s a committee – as of Week 6, both have identical 93 rushing attempts (Petrongolo slightly more yards per carry, while King has pulled in the TDs). Now it’s a committee on Berlin – so you’re not looking at a whole lot of positive game scripts or high value situations. Its damaging to both Petrongolo and King, from a fantasy perspective. But Petrongolo is owned in 81% of Groups while his committee-mate King is owned in none.
So if you’re needy and want to take a flyer with the potential to differentiate you from the league, Danny King might be your waiver target.
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Wide Receivers
These are the top 10 fantasy wide receivers heading into Week 7:
- Lim, W. - WR - COL - 85.7 pts - 25% Market Share - 100% rostered
- Howlett ®, D. - WR - BAL - 82.1 pts - 28% MSR - 50% rostered
- Barker, E. - WR - NO - 81.9 pts - 26% MSR - 67% rostered
- Sakura ©, K. - WR - YKW - 76.4 pts - 25% MSR - 92% rostered
- Hood, T. - WR - SJS - 73.6 pts - 18% MSR - 11% rostered
- Vuxta, R. - WR - PHI - 68.0 pts - 27% MSR - 89% rostered
- Passmann, T. - WR - AZ - 67.1 pts - 20% MSR - 53% rostered
- Campbell ®, J. - WR - BAL - 67.0 pts - 22% MSR - 11% rostered
- Witheblock, M. - WR - SAR - 65.8 pts - 22% MSR - 81% rostered
- Snyder ®, S. - WR - NY - 65.7 pts - 17% MSR - 3% rostered
I didn’t bother pulling drop data from the sim, which would definitely have helped paint a fuller picture, but we’ll use what’s readily available – number of catches. Here’s my top waiver adds going into Week 7:
Tychondrius Hood – WR – SJS – Available in 89% of Groups
We’ll start with Hood, the number 1 wide receiver available in most leagues by fantasy points scored to date. While San Jose has been picking up wins, it hasn’t been an absolute gunshow by the passing offense – 223 yards per average puts them well behind most of the pack. Despite that, Hood has managed to find the endzone an amazing 5 times already in 6 weeks – much to the detriment of DTF owners.
Now there’s certainly room for decline, after all regression should kick and reduce the number of TDs that Hood is picking up and return some of them to DTF. But if you look at where the targets have been falling, Hood has consistently been a WR1/2 for San Jose. And he’s making it work.
Is it unlikely that Hood ends the season with 11 touchdowns? Sure, but its not impossible given his usage. If you’re unsatisfied with your WR3 and are considering a change – Hood provides good value available for almost all groups.
Thomas Passmann – WR – AZ – Available in 47% of Groups
Not as widely available, Thomas Passman has been consistently used in an otherwise volatile Arizona receiving corps that hasn’t shied away from targeting their running backs or tight ends, often eating into the targets of other wide receivers. Evans, for instance, is the most consistent WR1 on Arizona despite being a tight end. Saba Donut has a high ceiling but WR2 floor. Evans and Donut are both owned in 100% and 92% of groups respectively, so fantasy owners looking to get in on Arizona would have to look at Passman.
Although the market share has been declining as Arizona’s Jay Cue began favoring Donut slightly more after the double header, Passman has done most of his damage taking advantage of redzone opportunities (or making them with blistering 43 yard TD scores) – he’s got 4 TDs to lead the Arizona offense.
Is regression likely? Possibly – I’d rather hold on Evans and Donut than take a flyer with Passman, but then again the TDs could signal a playcalling decision to have Passman in advantageous setups in the redzone. Or its complete chance. This one’s a bit of a gamble for fantasy managers.
Joshua Campbell ® – WR – BAL – Available in 89% of Groups
Speaking of gambles, here’s a rookie wide receiver out of Baltimore that has taken the 8th spot on the top 10 wide receivers, despite sharing the field with fellow rookie wide receiver Howlett (2nd ranked fantasy wide receiver going into Week 7). How is Baltimore sustaining two fantasy WR1s? The best pass offense in yards per game in the ISFL certainly helps, as Fujiwara has not been afraid to gun it this season. They’re first in receiving yards and fourth in passes caught.
Campbell has made the most of his targets, with 4 touchdowns on 30 receptions. By receptions alone, Campbell would make a WR2 and his frequency of targeting means that he has high upside in a Baltimore offense that is committed to getting the ball through the air to its rookie wide receiving corps.
Campbell’s in a battle for looks with Brown ® and Lewandowski, all three competing for WR2 on the offense behind Howlett, but with 7 less receptions on the season than Campbell for Brown and a difficult 8.8 avg yards per catch for Lewandowski, I’d bet that Campbell has wedged his way into the WR2 status and a worthwhile add for WR3 hungry fantasy teams. The volume will be there and his production to date shows no signs of slowing.
If you’re needy …
Sean Snyder ® – WR – NY – Available in 97% of Groups
This is a deep add, flyer, looking for a moonshot kind of pick. Why? New York hasn’t been scaring too many defenses through the air (12th ranked pass offense for yards) or points (12th ranked offense there too). They’re also bottom of the league for receptions – 3rd last ahead of Orange County and Philadelphia.
But in that nascent offense, Snyder has the potential to be a good add for a team with a weak WR3 situation. He’s climbed up the market share report week after week, with a steady climb from a flex option to potential WR1/2 targets and receptions – including 3 receptions for 18 yards and TD (Snyder’s 5th!) in Week 6. Out of New York’s 13 TDs total this season from their offense, Snyder has 5 of them.
While I’m not sure he can keep it up, the market share steadily climbing means that New York may be interested in winning what battles they can this season – including potentially giving their star rookie wide receiver some hardware and every stat they can increase. He’s a high risk add with a very low floor – but winning upside.
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Tight Ends
Quick Hit Tight Ends:
- Earl Sauce – the Colorado Tight End is receiving consistent targets in one of the highest octane offenses in the ISFL. And he’s available in 72% of teams. His role looks pretty stable, this is the opportunity to nab a real group winning TE here.
- Leon McDavid – the New York Tight End has upside of 30% market share in an otherwise stagnant offense – he’ll be stealing many opportunities otherwise sent to NY WRs. Averaging 11 yards per reception, he’s the second best TE on avg yards per reception. It’s a riskier play, but if you’re betting New York’s offense might find its way in the second half he’s a good add.
- Ragnar Krashwagen ® – the rookie Tight End out in Hawaii has put up good numbers this year on the best offense (pts) in the ISLF (team score somewhat skewed on the back of that sweltering Week 2 score). But with consistent 20% reception market share, and 2 TDs on the year, Krashwagon has the ability to be a contributing TE to your team. Honolulu does have a tough second half though, so buyer beware.
- James Lewandowski – the Baltimore Tight End has seen increasing market share over the course of the season, increasing from sub-20% to almost 30% by Week 6. As such, he’s become a veteran leader of an otherwise young Baltimore WR corps. With 28 receptions and only 1 TD, he’s due for some positive regression at some point.
DEF and K
Quick Hit Defenses:
- Chicago Butchers – Available in 72% of Groups – 93.3 fantasy points. The Butchers have a decent second half schedule, only playing teams with winning / tied records 3 times out of 8 matchups – and the best opponent is Colorado once.
- Jay-Jaymison, J. – K – AZ – Available in 58% of Groups
- Fencik ®, J. – K – PHI – Available in 86% of Groups
- PhastBawls, D. – K – BAL – Available in 97% of Groups
- Kokot ®, B. – K – YKW – Available in 97% of Groups
Good luck in Week 7 and onwards!
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