08-06-2022, 03:00 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2022, 11:26 AM by dude_man. Edited 1 time in total.)
The weekly TPE task to pick the winners of each week's games is a stable of TPE earning during the season. In some previous analysis of past TPE leaders, predictions were around 20% of total TPE earned. So, in an effort to see who's good at doing predictions and what other interesting things I can find, I dumped all the results into a table and did some math for the S36 predictions. I ignored any earning from all the users listed as getting the mode values - this looks only at actual predictions. The data is sourced from the claim posts and does not look at the actual predictions and any stats for "TPE earned" are really "TPE that could be claimed" - I'm not looking at actual update threads. I'm counting entries posted too late as zeroes, though there is an argument to instead remove them from the source data.
Baseline stats
What data are we working with here?
* 302 different users were listed in the claim posts
* 94 users were named in all 16 claims
* The average number of TPE earned/week (defined as total TPE earned after rounding half points up divided by the number of users listed in the claim posts) was 2.42 TPE/week - 8304 total earned from 3434 user-claims.
* The mode (most common amount) of earned (post-rounding) TPE was 2
* The mode of correct picks (mode) was 4 - in some ways this makes sense since 4 correct picks gives you 2 TPE, but 3 picks also rounds up to 2 os it wasn't guaranteed
Top users
What users performed the best in TPE predictions this season?
The most TPE earned this season was 43 (vs a theoretical max of 64) by 5 users - Amidships, Baron1898, dreamSloth, ImSatanJunior, and toivo. g2019 managed 42 TPE in only 15 weeks of predictions; 9 others also got 42 in 16 weeks.
The highest average TPE earned/week was 3 by 5 users. Moodles managed that with 3 weeks of predictions, while 2 had 2 weeks and 2 had only 1.
The highest number of correct picks was 78 (vs a theoretical max of 112) by Opera_Phantom. 7 others got 77 correct
The highest average number of correct picks/week was PDXBaller with 5.5 in 2 weeks of picks. 10 users averaged 5 correct picks/week with 3 having 4 weeks, 2 having 3 weeks, 3 having 2 weeks, and 2 having 1 week.
Perfect weeks
There were 129 (out of 3434 total) user-claims which earned 4 TPE (ie picked all 7 games correctly) from 113 different users. Week 12 had 90/129 (69.8%) of the perfect predictions
2 users (Baron1898 and Tesla) had 3 perfect weeks while 12 others had 2 and 99 had 1
Conclusions
I'm picking Baron1898 as the best picker of the season with the tie for highest TPE and 3 perfect weeks, though g2019's higher weekly average is certainly a strong contender as well.
Baseline stats
What data are we working with here?
* 302 different users were listed in the claim posts
* 94 users were named in all 16 claims
* The average number of TPE earned/week (defined as total TPE earned after rounding half points up divided by the number of users listed in the claim posts) was 2.42 TPE/week - 8304 total earned from 3434 user-claims.
* The mode (most common amount) of earned (post-rounding) TPE was 2
* The mode of correct picks (mode) was 4 - in some ways this makes sense since 4 correct picks gives you 2 TPE, but 3 picks also rounds up to 2 os it wasn't guaranteed
Top users
What users performed the best in TPE predictions this season?
The most TPE earned this season was 43 (vs a theoretical max of 64) by 5 users - Amidships, Baron1898, dreamSloth, ImSatanJunior, and toivo. g2019 managed 42 TPE in only 15 weeks of predictions; 9 others also got 42 in 16 weeks.
The highest average TPE earned/week was 3 by 5 users. Moodles managed that with 3 weeks of predictions, while 2 had 2 weeks and 2 had only 1.
The highest number of correct picks was 78 (vs a theoretical max of 112) by Opera_Phantom. 7 others got 77 correct
The highest average number of correct picks/week was PDXBaller with 5.5 in 2 weeks of picks. 10 users averaged 5 correct picks/week with 3 having 4 weeks, 2 having 3 weeks, 3 having 2 weeks, and 2 having 1 week.
Perfect weeks
There were 129 (out of 3434 total) user-claims which earned 4 TPE (ie picked all 7 games correctly) from 113 different users. Week 12 had 90/129 (69.8%) of the perfect predictions
2 users (Baron1898 and Tesla) had 3 perfect weeks while 12 others had 2 and 99 had 1
Conclusions
I'm picking Baron1898 as the best picker of the season with the tie for highest TPE and 3 perfect weeks, though g2019's higher weekly average is certainly a strong contender as well.
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